<p>强劲的首次公开募股（IPO）市场和债券销售的结合，帮助香港的财政健康比预期更早地恢复到盈余状态，分析师预计，强劲的上市管道将是维持该市盈余的关键。在周三的预算演讲中，财政司司长陈茂波表示，之前预计 2025-26 财年（截至 3 月 31 日）将录得 670 亿港元的赤字，但最终出现了约 29 亿港元的综合盈余。周四，一些经济学家对 2026-27 年的前景表示乐观，指出稳定的房地产市场和政府基金或账户之间数十亿港元的转移等因素。浸会大学会计、经济与金融系副教授麦瑞彩将 2025-26 年的经营盈余直接归因于活跃的股市，指出强劲的成交量和上市活动是政府收入的主要动力。他表示：“主要原因是过去一年……香港的股票成交量大幅增加，因此政府的印花税收入大幅上升，增加了数百亿。” 香港树仁大学经济与金融系主任李树鑫表示，来自新公司的复合效应、蓬勃发展的股市和复苏的房地产行业将相互促进，以维持更高的税收收入。他说：“未来的情况相对乐观。今年，香港的财政健康主要依赖于企业利润和股市回报，但如果我们能在未来吸引更多公司来香港，结果自然会更好。” 他补充道：“如果我们看到更多初创公司加入市场，利润受益，股市变得更加活跃——如果房地产行业在此背景下改善——税收收入将会呈现复合增长。整体前景是乐观的。” 强劲的 IPO 表现使得 2025-26 年的印花税收入估计达到 995 亿港元，比之前的预期高出 319 亿港元。同样，利润税收入也超出预期 168 亿港元，达到 2090 亿港元。新上市的成功和强劲的股票交易也促使香港交易所连续两年创下记录利润，净利润同比增长 36%，达到 177.5 亿港元。交易所早前报告，截至 2026 年 1 月底，超过 400 家公司在上市管道中，涵盖医疗、材料、科技 - 媒体 - 电信和工业等多个行业。香港在 2025 年以全球 IPO 融资的最高场所结束，筹集了 374 亿美元，涉及 119 个上市。借助这一势头，财政司司长还要求交易所审查上市要求，以便利航空航天企业的上市。然而，债券销售也是综合盈余的重要贡献者。政府在 2025-26 年发行了 1550 亿港元的可持续和基础设施债券，这些债券被记入资本工程储备基金的收入中。政府债券的偿还金额约为 516.9 亿港元。如果没有这些，综合账户将因巨额资本支出而录得超过 1000 亿港元的赤字。李树鑫表示：“如果单纯看账目……可能会认为这是 ‘做假账’（将债务算作收入）。” 但他补充道：“但根据政府的定义，这是盈余。” 麦瑞彩同意盈余数字涉及 “会计技巧”，但为其辩护。他表示：“如果你将北部都会区所需的数千亿全部记为一年的支出，肯定会出现赤字。但借钱投资是一种融资方式，就像贷款买房一样。” 财政司司长明确表示，债券发行计划将在未来五年扩大至每年 1600 亿至 2200 亿港元的目标。因此，预计到 2030-31 年，债务与 GDP 的比率将从 14.4% 上升至 19.9%。李树鑫强调，这一策略的合法性取决于资金的使用方式。他表示：“发行债券不是为了支付公务员的薪水或福利……如果是，那将是一个巨大的问题。但如果用于交通基础设施……那么这种债券发行完全没问题。” 法国投资银行 Natixis 将债券收益掩盖的持续财政赤字描述为香港的 “新常态”。展望 2026-27 年，政府预测综合盈余为 221 亿港元，这在很大程度上得益于积极的资金转移。例如，政府计划将 750 亿港元的投资收益从外汇基金转移到资本工程储备基金，以及将 370 亿港元的债券基金的累计盈余转回政府账户。财政服务及库务局局长许正宇为使用外汇基金收益辩护，称转移涉及 “额外投资收益”，而不是捍卫货币挂钩所需的本金。他表示，与其他发达经济体的水平相比，债务与 GDP 的比例仍然可控。外汇基金，香港的事实上的主权财富基金，用于捍卫美元货币挂钩和资助基础设施发展。</p>

南方两倍看多恒指

盈富基金

南方两倍看空恒指

安硕恒生指数

恒生指数

南方恒生指数ETF

南方一倍看空恒指

<p>香港在 2025-26 财年录得 29 亿港元的综合盈余，扭转了预期的 670 亿港元赤字。这一改善归因于强劲的首次公开募股市场和债券销售，分析师对未来盈余持乐观态度，认为房地产市场的稳定和企业利润的增加将带来积极影响。政府预计 2026-27 财年将实现 221 亿港元的盈余，得益于大量资金转移。然而，关于将债券收益计入收入的合法性仍然存在担忧，专家强调了适当资金分配的重要性</p>

<p>A combination of a strong initial public offering (IPO) market and bond sales has helped put Hong Kong’s financial health back in the black sooner than expected, with analysts expecting a robust pipeline of listings to be key to sustaining the city’s surplus. In his budget speech on Wednesday, Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po said the city was previously expected to record a HK$67 billion deficit for the 2025-26 financial year, which ends on March 31, but emerged with an estimated HK$2.9 billion consolidated surplus. Some economists on Thursday expressed optimism regarding the outlook for 2026-27, pointing to factors such as the stabilised property market and the transfer of billions of Hong Kong dollars between government funds or accounts. Billy Mak Sui-choi, an associate professor at Baptist University’s accountancy, economics and finance department, attributed the operating surplus in 2025-26 directly to the bustling stock market, noting that robust turnover and listing activities were the primary engines for government revenue. “The main reason is that in the past year … Hong Kong stock turnover was much larger, so government stamp duty [revenue] increased by a lot, by tens of billions,” he said. Lee Shu-kam, head of Hong Kong Shue Yan University’s economics and finance department, expressed optimism that a compounding effect from new companies coming to Hong Kong, a booming stock market and a recovering property sector would mutually reinforce one another to sustain higher tax revenues. “The future situation is relatively optimistic. This year, [the city’s financial health] was mainly supported by corporate profits and returns from the stock market, but if we can attract more companies to Hong Kong in the future, the result will naturally be even better,” he said. “If we see more start-ups joining the market, profits benefiting, and the stock market becoming more buoyant – and if the property sector improves amid this – tax revenue will see a compounding increase. The overall picture is optimistic.” The strong IPOs showing gave rise to an estimated stamp duty revenue of HK$99.5 billion in 2025-26, HK$31.9 billion higher than previously thought. Similarly, profits tax revenue beat forecasts by HK$16.8 billion, reaching HK$209 billion. The success of the new listings and strong stock trading also prompted a record profit for the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing two years in a row, with its net profit jumping by 36 per cent to HK$17.75 billion last year. The exchange earlier reported that as of the end of January 2026, more than 400 companies were in the listing pipeline, representing a diverse sector spanning healthcare, materials, technology-media-telecoms and industrials. Hong Kong finished 2025 as the world’s top venue for IPO fundraising, raising US$37.4 billion across 119 listings. Riding on the momentum, the financial secretary has also tasked the bourse with reviewing listing requirements to facilitate the listing of aerospace enterprises. However, bond sales were also a significant contributor to the consolidated surplus. The government issued HK$155 billion in sustainable and infrastructure bonds in 2025-26, which were booked as revenue in the Capital Works Reserve Fund. Repayments for government bonds amounted to about HK$51.69 billion. Without them, the consolidated account would have recorded a deficit of more than HK$100 billion due to heavy capital expenditure. “If looking purely at the accounts … one might think it is ‘cooking the books’ [to count debt as revenue],” Lee said. “But following the government’s definition, it is a surplus.” Mak agreed the surplus figure involved “accounting techniques” but defended the rationale. “If you take the thousands of billions needed for the Northern Metropolis and book it all as expenditure in one year, you will definitely have a deficit,” Mak said. “But borrowing money to invest is a financing method, just like taking a mortgage to buy a flat.” The financial secretary explicitly said the bond issuance programme would be expanded to an annual target of HK$160 billion to HK$220 billion for the next five years. Consequently, the debt-to-GDP level is projected to rise from 14.4 per cent to 19.9 per cent by 2030-31. Lee emphasised that the legitimacy of this strategy hinged on how the funds were deployed. “Issuing bonds is not for paying civil servants’ salaries or welfare … If it were, that would be a huge problem,” he said. “But if it is used for transport infrastructure … then this bond issuance is completely fine.” French investment bank Natixis described the persistent financial deficit, masked by bond proceeds, as the “new norm” for Hong Kong. Looking ahead to 2026-27, the government forecasts a consolidated surplus of HK$22.1 billion, which is heavily buttressed by aggressive fund transfers. For example, the government plans to transfer HK$75 billion in investment income from the Exchange Fund to the Capital Works Reserve Fund and HK$37 billion from the accumulated surplus of the Bond Fund back into government accounts. Christopher Hui Ching-yu, secretary for financial services and the treasury, defended the use of Exchange Fund proceeds, saying the transfer involved “extra investment income” rather than the principal capital required to defend the currency peg. He said the debt-to-GDP proportion remained controllable compared with the level of other advanced economies. The Exchange Fund, Hong Kong’s de facto sovereign wealth fund, is used to defend the US dollar currency peg and finance infrastructure development.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>强劲的首次公开募股（IPO）市场和债券销售的结合，帮助香港的财政健康比预期更早地恢复到盈余状态，分析师预计，强劲的上市管道将是维持该市盈余的关键。在周三的预算演讲中，财政司司长陈茂波表示，之前预计 2025-26 财年（截至 3 月 31 日）将录得 670 亿港元的赤字，但最终出现了约 29 亿港元的综合盈余。周四，一些经济学家对 2026-27 年的前景表示乐观，指出稳定的房地产市场和政府基金或账户之间数十亿港元的转移等因素。浸会大学会计、经济与金融系副教授麦瑞彩将 2025-26 年的经营盈余直接归因于活跃的股市，指出强劲的成交量和上市活动是政府收入的主要动力。他表示：“主要原因是过去一年……香港的股票成交量大幅增加，因此政府的印花税收入大幅上升，增加了数百亿。” 香港树仁大学经济与金融系主任李树鑫表示，来自新公司的复合效应、蓬勃发展的股市和复苏的房地产行业将相互促进，以维持更高的税收收入。他说：“未来的情况相对乐观。今年，香港的财政健康主要依赖于企业利润和股市回报，但如果我们能在未来吸引更多公司来香港，结果自然会更好。” 他补充道：“如果我们看到更多初创公司加入市场，利润受益，股市变得更加活跃——如果房地产行业在此背景下改善——税收收入将会呈现复合增长。整体前景是乐观的。” 强劲的 IPO 表现使得 2025-26 年的印花税收入估计达到 995 亿港元，比之前的预期高出 319 亿港元。同样，利润税收入也超出预期 168 亿港元，达到 2090 亿港元。新上市的成功和强劲的股票交易也促使香港交易所连续两年创下记录利润，净利润同比增长 36%，达到 177.5 亿港元。交易所早前报告，截至 2026 年 1 月底，超过 400 家公司在上市管道中，涵盖医疗、材料、科技 - 媒体 - 电信和工业等多个行业。香港在 2025 年以全球 IPO 融资的最高场所结束，筹集了 374 亿美元，涉及 119 个上市。借助这一势头，财政司司长还要求交易所审查上市要求，以便利航空航天企业的上市。然而，债券销售也是综合盈余的重要贡献者。政府在 2025-26 年发行了 1550 亿港元的可持续和基础设施债券，这些债券被记入资本工程储备基金的收入中。政府债券的偿还金额约为 516.9 亿港元。如果没有这些，综合账户将因巨额资本支出而录得超过 1000 亿港元的赤字。李树鑫表示：“如果单纯看账目……可能会认为这是 ‘做假账’（将债务算作收入）。” 但他补充道：“但根据政府的定义，这是盈余。” 麦瑞彩同意盈余数字涉及 “会计技巧”，但为其辩护。他表示：“如果你将北部都会区所需的数千亿全部记为一年的支出，肯定会出现赤字。但借钱投资是一种融资方式，就像贷款买房一样。” 财政司司长明确表示，债券发行计划将在未来五年扩大至每年 1600 亿至 2200 亿港元的目标。因此，预计到 2030-31 年，债务与 GDP 的比率将从 14.4% 上升至 19.9%。李树鑫强调，这一策略的合法性取决于资金的使用方式。他表示：“发行债券不是为了支付公务员的薪水或福利……如果是，那将是一个巨大的问题。但如果用于交通基础设施……那么这种债券发行完全没问题。” 法国投资银行 Natixis 将债券收益掩盖的持续财政赤字描述为香港的 “新常态”。展望 2026-27 年，政府预测综合盈余为 221 亿港元，这在很大程度上得益于积极的资金转移。例如，政府计划将 750 亿港元的投资收益从外汇基金转移到资本工程储备基金，以及将 370 亿港元的债券基金的累计盈余转回政府账户。财政服务及库务局局长许正宇为使用外汇基金收益辩护，称转移涉及 “额外投资收益”，而不是捍卫货币挂钩所需的本金。他表示，与其他发达经济体的水平相比，债务与 GDP 的比例仍然可控。外汇基金，香港的事实上的主权财富基金，用于捍卫美元货币挂钩和资助基础设施发展。</p>
</div>

Hong Kong records HK$2.9 billion consolidated surplus for 2025-26. Here’s how

- 香港财政盈余提前回归，受益于强劲的 IPO 市场和债券销售。  
- 2025-26 财年盈余 29 亿港元，主要由活跃股市推动。  
- 政府预计未来将扩展债券发行规模以支持融资。

香港在 2025-26 年度录得 29 亿港元的综合盈余。以下是详细情况