<p>TradingKey - 全球主要资产上周经历了一次罕见的 “全卖” 现象。在短暂触及 5100 美元后，黄金迅速反转；白银和加密货币则出现了明显的抛售。然而，在表面波动之下，来自世界黄金协会（WGC）的新数据揭示了截然不同的潜流：战略资本正在以数十年来未见的规模在弱势中布局。</p>
<h2><strong>流动性陷阱：为何避险资产在恐惧高峰时失利？</strong></h2>
<p>黄金的最新修正是流动性紧缩的教科书症状。以亚马逊为首的科技股在标准普尔 500 指数中的暴力抛售，因其基于人工智能的资本支出冲击动摇了盈利预期，重新点燃了对科技泡沫破裂的担忧。解除杠杆的过程迅速蔓延：比特币和白银的强制平仓通过衍生品市场迅速扩散，迫使机构采取 “现金优先” 的立场。</p>
<p>在任何流动性紧缩的第一阶段，即使是安全资产也成为了抵押品。黄金的高可转换性使其成为保证金追索的第一道防线。美元指数的同时反弹和国债收益率的下降讲述了同样的故事：资本并不寻求资产，而是寻求现金。黄金的下跌从来不是关于基本面的问题——而是由于去杠杆机制造成的错误定价，而非信念的改变。</p>
<h2><strong>资本轮换：创纪录的 ETF 流入，价格权力的转移</strong></h2>
<p>市场屏幕看起来很糟糕，但资金流动却并非如此。根据 WGC 的数据，全球黄金 ETF 在 2026 年 1 月录得创纪录的 260 亿美元净流入，成为历史上最大单月流入。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260210/tradingkey1-c032ace79ee74791b575446603247b59.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="558" height="164" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260210/tradingkey1-c032ace79ee74791b575446603247b59.png"/></p>
<p>重要的细节：这些资金来自哪里。亚洲占据了 96 亿美元，首次超过北美。在中国，房地产和股市剧烈波动，黄金重新成为再配置对冲的中心。在印度，股市疲软，资金流向明确显示出一种轮换——从风险资产转向金属。</p>
<p>北美和欧洲则讲述了不同的故事。在那里，黄金作为信用保险发挥作用。该地区连续第八个月录得流入，主要是由于对美联储政治独立性的怀疑加剧。随着对政策干预的恐惧加剧，投资者购买黄金作为对抗系统性美元信用风险的对冲。因格林兰领土争端重新点燃的贸易焦虑使得欧洲的资金流入保持稳定。</p>
<h2><strong>宏观转变：从通胀交易到衰退预期</strong></h2>
<p>上周美国劳动力市场未能改善：职位空缺降至五年低点，而宣布裁员激增 205%。宏观叙事已明确转变——从抗击通胀转向为冲击做好准备。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260210/tradingkey2_optimized_150-adc092927b1f4cef9989c28c22fe686a.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1600" height="1000" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260210/tradingkey2_optimized_150-adc092927b1f4cef9989c28c22fe686a.png"/></p>
<p>这一转变解释了短期的清算潮，但从周期层面来看，它传达了更深层次的信号：美联储可能别无选择，只能加快降息步伐。一旦市场从恐慌转向定价宽松预期，黄金的衰退对冲地位往往会迅速重新定价。</p>
<h2><strong>投资者：保持谨慎</strong></h2>
<p>今天的黄金市场处于一个罕见的交汇点——技术性破位与结构性强度之间。流动性解除放大了噪音，但核心论点依然稳固：美元信用的加深裂痕、持续的地缘政治紧张局势以及持久的亚洲需求都强化了黄金的长期基础。</p>
<p>对于长期资本而言，因恐慌驱动的下跌可能定义了一个战略入场区间在 4400 至 4500 美元之间。然而，随着 VIX 等波动率指标飙升，短期交易需要谦逊。在由强制抛售而非基本面主导的市场中，纪律——而非自负——仍然是唯一持久的优势。</p>
<p>了解更多</p>

黄金矿 ETF - Sprott

黄金 ETF - SPDR

纽蒙特矿业

<p>最近全球资产，包括黄金的抛售，是由于流动性紧缩，黄金经历了显著的调整。尽管如此，世界黄金协会报告称，黄金 ETF 的资金流入创下纪录，特别是来自亚洲的资金流入，表明投资者在向黄金转变，以对冲市场波动。宏观经济形势正在从对通胀的担忧转向对衰退的恐惧，这可能促使美联储进行降息。投资者被建议保持谨慎，因为当前市场既存在风险，也为长期资本提供了机会</p>

<p>TradingKey - Global major assets went through a rare “sell‑everything” last week. After briefly touching $5,100, gold reversed sharply; silver and cryptocurrencies saw outright capitulation. Yet beneath the surface volatility, new data from the World Gold Council (WGC) reveal a strikingly different undercurrent: strategic capital is positioning into weakness at a scale not seen in decades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingKey - 全球主要资产上周经历了一次罕见的 “全卖” 现象。在短暂触及 5100 美元后，黄金迅速反转；白银和加密货币则出现了明显的抛售。然而，在表面波动之下，来自世界黄金协会（WGC）的新数据揭示了截然不同的潜流：战略资本正在以数十年来未见的规模在弱势中布局。</p>
</div><h2><strong>The Liquidity Trap: Why Did Safe Havens Falter When Fear Peaked?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>流动性陷阱：为何避险资产在恐惧高峰时失利？</strong></h2>
</div><p>Gold’s latest correction was the textbook symptom of a liquidity squeeze. A violent sell‑off in the S&amp;P 500’s tech complex—led by Amazon, whose AI‑driven capex shock rattled earnings expectations—rekindled concerns over a bursting tech bubble. The unwind spread quickly: leveraged liquidations across Bitcoin and silver cascaded through derivative markets, forcing institutions into a “cash‑only” stance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金的最新修正是流动性紧缩的教科书症状。以亚马逊为首的科技股在标准普尔 500 指数中的暴力抛售，因其基于人工智能的资本支出冲击动摇了盈利预期，重新点燃了对科技泡沫破裂的担忧。解除杠杆的过程迅速蔓延：比特币和白银的强制平仓通过衍生品市场迅速扩散，迫使机构采取 “现金优先” 的立场。</p>
</div><p>In the first stage of any liquidity crunch, even safe assets become collateral. Gold’s high convertibility turns it into the first line of defense for margin calls. The simultaneous rebound in the dollar index and the drop in Treasury yields told the same story: capital wasn’t seeking assets, it was seeking cash. The drawdown in gold was never about fundamentals—it was a mispricing born of deleveraging mechanics, not a change in belief.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在任何流动性紧缩的第一阶段，即使是安全资产也成为了抵押品。黄金的高可转换性使其成为保证金追索的第一道防线。美元指数的同时反弹和国债收益率的下降讲述了同样的故事：资本并不寻求资产，而是寻求现金。黄金的下跌从来不是关于基本面的问题——而是由于去杠杆机制造成的错误定价，而非信念的改变。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Capital Rotation: Record ETF Inflows, Shifting Price Power</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>资本轮换：创纪录的 ETF 流入，价格权力的转移</strong></h2>
</div><p>Market screens looked ugly, but fund flows said otherwise. According to WGC, global gold ETFs recorded a record $26 billion net inflow in January 2026, the largest monthly intake in history.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场屏幕看起来很糟糕，但资金流动却并非如此。根据 WGC 的数据，全球黄金 ETF 在 2026 年 1 月录得创纪录的 260 亿美元净流入，成为历史上最大单月流入。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260210/tradingkey1-c032ace79ee74791b575446603247b59.png" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260210/tradingkey1-c032ace79ee74791b575446603247b59.png"/></p>
<p>The detail that matters: where that money came from. Asia accounted for $9.6 billion, overtaking North America for the first time. In China, with real estate and equity markets swinging wildly, gold has regained centre stage as a reallocation hedge. In India, where equities have softened, flows point to a clear rotation—out of risk, into metal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重要的细节：这些资金来自哪里。亚洲占据了 96 亿美元，首次超过北美。在中国，房地产和股市剧烈波动，黄金重新成为再配置对冲的中心。在印度，股市疲软，资金流向明确显示出一种轮换——从风险资产转向金属。</p>
</div><p>North America and Europe tell a different story. There, gold is functioning as credit insurance. The region logged its eighth straight month of inflows, driven by rising doubts over the Federal Reserve’s political independence. As fear of policy interference grows, investors are buying gold as a hedge against systemic dollar‑credit risk. Heightened trade anxiety— rekindled by the Greenland territorial dispute—kept European flows steady.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>北美和欧洲则讲述了不同的故事。在那里，黄金作为信用保险发挥作用。该地区连续第八个月录得流入，主要是由于对美联储政治独立性的怀疑加剧。随着对政策干预的恐惧加剧，投资者购买黄金作为对抗系统性美元信用风险的对冲。因格林兰领土争端重新点燃的贸易焦虑使得欧洲的资金流入保持稳定。</p>
</div><h2><strong>The Macro Turn: From Inflation Trade to Recession Play</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>宏观转变：从通胀交易到衰退预期</strong></h2>
</div><p>The U.S. labour market failed to improve last week: job openings hit a five‑year low, while announced layoffs surged 205 per cent. The macro narrative has shifted decisively—from fighting inflation to bracing for impact.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周美国劳动力市场未能改善：职位空缺降至五年低点，而宣布裁员激增 205%。宏观叙事已明确转变——从抗击通胀转向为冲击做好准备。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260210/tradingkey2_optimized_150-adc092927b1f4cef9989c28c22fe686a.png" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260210/tradingkey2_optimized_150-adc092927b1f4cef9989c28c22fe686a.png"/></p>
<p>That pivot explains the short‑term liquidation rush, but at a cycle level it signals something deeper: the Fed may have no choice but to move faster on rate cuts. Once markets rotate from panic to pricing easing expectations, gold’s recession‑hedge status tends to reprice quickly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一转变解释了短期的清算潮，但从周期层面来看，它传达了更深层次的信号：美联储可能别无选择，只能加快降息步伐。一旦市场从恐慌转向定价宽松预期，黄金的衰退对冲地位往往会迅速重新定价。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Investors: Keep Cautious</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>投资者：保持谨慎</strong></h2>
</div><p>Today’s gold market sits at a rare intersection—technical breakdown against structural strength. The liquidity unwind has amplified noise, but the core thesis remains intact: deepening fractures in dollar credit, persistent geopolitical tension, and sticky Asian demand all reinforce the metal’s long‑term footing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天的黄金市场处于一个罕见的交汇点——技术性破位与结构性强度之间。流动性解除放大了噪音，但核心论点依然稳固：美元信用的加深裂痕、持续的地缘政治紧张局势以及持久的亚洲需求都强化了黄金的长期基础。</p>
</div><p>For long‑horizon capital, the panic‑driven drop could define a strategic entry zone around $4,400–$4,500. Yet with volatility gauges like VIX spiking, short‑term trades demand humility. In markets governed by forced selling rather than fundamentals, discipline—not bravado—remains the only durable edge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于长期资本而言，因恐慌驱动的下跌可能定义了一个战略入场区间在 4400 至 4500 美元之间。然而，随着 VIX 等波动率指标飙升，短期交易需要谦逊。在由强制抛售而非基本面主导的市场中，纪律——而非自负——仍然是唯一持久的优势。</p>
</div><p>Find out more</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>了解更多</p>
</div>

Can Gold Still Glitter in a Liquidity Trap?

- 全球主要资产经历罕见的 “全卖出” 波动，黄金一度触及 $5,100 后迅速回落。  
- WGC 数据显示，战略资金在市场弱势中大规模布局，创数十年来的高位。  
- 虽然短期内市场噪音加剧，但黄金长期支撑仍然稳固。

在流动性陷阱中，黄金还能否继续闪耀？