<p>作者：朱尔斯·里默</p>
<p>Oaktree 联合创始人表示，没人应该对 AI 采取 “全进” 或 “全出” 的态度</p>
<p>霍华德·马克斯对 AI 的怀疑程度比几个月前要小得多。</p>
<p>在十二月，霍华德·马克斯发布了一份投资备忘录，标题为《这是泡沫吗？》，表达了他对人工智能及其所创造的股市繁荣的一些怀疑和顾虑。</p>
<p>几个月后，在接受了 Anthropic 的 Claude AI 模型的一个教程后，马克斯的最新投资备忘录标题为《AI 飞速发展》。可以公平地说，如果马克斯还没有完全转变为 AI 投资的支持者，他现在已经相信它所带来的革命性技术优势。他猜测其潜力被低估，但警告这并不意味着投资价格是合理的。</p>
<p>作为 Oaktree Capital Management 的联合创始人和联合主席，马克斯的观点备受重视。因此，当几个月前他警告 “泡沫的规律性”、“泡沫行为”，并指出 “最终结果不可避免地是痛苦的” 时，AI 股票的投资者们都认真倾听。</p>
<p>这并不完全是一次大转变，但他显然对这项技术的上行潜力更加开放。</p>
<p>在一些投资者的鼓励下尝试了一些可用的 AI 模型后，马克斯对 Claude 机器人进行了审查，并对此印象深刻。他说：“在我开始之前，我想试图传达我对 Claude 输出的敬畏感。”</p>
<p>考虑到 AI 在一篇病毒式传播的 Citrini Research 论文后经历的糟糕公关，该论文描绘的经济厄运因 Cash App 和 Square 公司 Block 决定裁减一半员工、裁掉 4000 个职位而加剧，AI 行业急需提振。现在，它获得了来自美国最受尊敬和经验丰富的投资者之一的强烈支持。</p>
<p>马克斯对 AI 能够自主行动的能力印象深刻。他说：“它在做出智能决策。它有一些感觉，第一次像是判断。像是品味。”</p>
<p>评论到仅仅几个月内能力的巨大飞跃，马克斯指出，在信息分析方面：“AI 拥有成为优秀投资者所需的许多品质。” 他提到 ChatGPT-5.3 Codex 和 Claude 的 Opus 4.6，指出 AI 正在做出 “智能决策，甚至为自己的代码和改进做出贡献，创造出加速的反馈循环。”</p>
<p>在做出投资决策时，他现在承认，随着指数化成为对主动投资管理的竞争威胁，AI 可能会将 “普通” 投资者挤出市场，部分原因是其推理不会受到贪婪和恐惧等人类情感的影响。</p>
<p>现在权衡利弊，与他在十二月关于 AI 投资主题是否是泡沫的辩论相比，马克斯总结强调，仅仅因为这项技术是真实且革命性的，并不意味着每一项投资都是安全的。</p>
<p>他认为循环收入和 “彩票式初创公司” 是有风险的。他对 “劳动力置换” 深感担忧，但总体上得出结论，现在还为时已早，无法判断 AI 是 “一个潮流还是一个幻觉”。</p>
<p>预测表明，霍华德·马克斯（以及许多其他评论员）对劳动力置换的担忧是有道理的。</p>
<p>由于不知道对 AI 基础设施的投资是否能产生足够的回报，马克斯很难判断超大规模公司是被低估还是被高估。他认为，AI 的潜力很可能被低估，“但这并不意味着 AI 投资是在打折出售。”</p>
<p>“没人应该全进，” 他说，“但同样，没有人应该全出。”</p>
<p>-朱尔斯·里默</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 独立于道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》发布。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻社</p>
<p>02-27-26 0652ET</p>

OAK-A

全球科技股指数 ETF - iShares

OAK-B

<p>霍华德·马克斯（Howard Marks），Oaktree Capital Management 的联合创始人，在与 Anthropic 的 Claude AI 模型进行了一次教程后，改变了他对人工智能的看法。之前持怀疑态度的他现在承认人工智能的革命性潜力，但警告不要对投资过于乐观。马克斯强调了一种平衡的方法，建议不要在人工智能上 “全力以赴” 或 “完全退出”。他认识到人工智能在做出智能决策方面的能力及其对投资管理的影响，同时也表达了对劳动置换和某些人工智能投资相关风险的担忧</p>

<p>By Jules Rimmer</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：朱尔斯·里默</p>
</div><p>No one should be 'all-in' or 'all-out' of AI, says Oaktree co-founder</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Oaktree 联合创始人表示，没人应该对 AI 采取 “全进” 或 “全出” 的态度</p>
</div><p>Howard Marks is much less skeptical about AI than he was just a few months ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>霍华德·马克斯对 AI 的怀疑程度比几个月前要小得多。</p>
</div><p>In December, Howard Marks published an investment memo titled, &#34;Is it a bubble?&#34; that expressed some of his skepticism and reservations about artificial intelligence and the stock-market boom it had created.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在十二月，霍华德·马克斯发布了一份投资备忘录，标题为《这是泡沫吗？》，表达了他对人工智能及其所创造的股市繁荣的一些怀疑和顾虑。</p>
</div><p>A few months and one tutorial from Anthropic's Claude AI model later, Marks's latest investment memo has the header &#34;AI hurtles ahead.&#34; It's fair to say that if Marks hasn't been completely converted to a bull on AI investment, he is now convinced of the revolutionary technological benefits it brings. He guesses its potential is underestimated but warns that may not mean the investment price is right.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>几个月后，在接受了 Anthropic 的 Claude AI 模型的一个教程后，马克斯的最新投资备忘录标题为《AI 飞速发展》。可以公平地说，如果马克斯还没有完全转变为 AI 投资的支持者，他现在已经相信它所带来的革命性技术优势。他猜测其潜力被低估，但警告这并不意味着投资价格是合理的。</p>
</div><p>As the co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, Marks's opinions are well-regarded. So when a few months back he cautioned about &#34;the regularity of bubbles,&#34; &#34;bubble behavior,&#34; and that the &#34;end result is inevitably painful,&#34; investors in AI stocks sat up and listened.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为 Oaktree Capital Management 的联合创始人和联合主席，马克斯的观点备受重视。因此，当几个月前他警告 “泡沫的规律性”、“泡沫行为”，并指出 “最终结果不可避免地是痛苦的” 时，AI 股票的投资者们都认真倾听。</p>
</div><p>It's not quite a Damascene conversion, but he's certainly much more open to the technology's upside potential.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并不完全是一次大转变，但他显然对这项技术的上行潜力更加开放。</p>
</div><p>Encouraged by some of those investors to try out a few of the AI models available, Marks placed the Claude bot under scrutiny and came away thoroughly impressed. It's not quite a Damascene conversion, but he's certainly much more open to the technology's upside potential. For example, he kicks off, &#34;Before I start in, I want to try to communicate the level of awe with which I viewed Claude's output.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在一些投资者的鼓励下尝试了一些可用的 AI 模型后，马克斯对 Claude 机器人进行了审查，并对此印象深刻。他说：“在我开始之前，我想试图传达我对 Claude 输出的敬畏感。”</p>
</div><p>Given the week of bad PR that AI has endured in the aftermath of a viral Citrini Research paper, whose portrait of economic doom was heightened by the Cash App and Square company Block's decision to halve its workforce and shed 4,000 jobs, the AI industry needed a boost. Now it has received what it can plausibly describe as a ringing endorsement from one of America's most reputable and experienced investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到 AI 在一篇病毒式传播的 Citrini Research 论文后经历的糟糕公关，该论文描绘的经济厄运因 Cash App 和 Square 公司 Block 决定裁减一半员工、裁掉 4000 个职位而加剧，AI 行业急需提振。现在，它获得了来自美国最受尊敬和经验丰富的投资者之一的强烈支持。</p>
</div><p>What impressed Marks was the ability of AI to act autonomously, he said. &#34;It was making intelligent decisions. It had something that felt, for the first time, like judgment. Like taste,&#34; he says.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>马克斯对 AI 能够自主行动的能力印象深刻。他说：“它在做出智能决策。它有一些感觉，第一次像是判断。像是品味。”</p>
</div><p>Commenting on the massive leap in capabilities in just a few months, Marks makes the point that in terms of analyzing information: &#34;AI possesses a lot of the qualities one needs to be a good investor.&#34; Citing ChatGPT-5.3 Codex and Claude's Opus 4.6, Marks notes AI is making &#34;intelligent decisions and even contributing to its own code and improvement, creating an accelerating feedback loop.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>评论到仅仅几个月内能力的巨大飞跃，马克斯指出，在信息分析方面：“AI 拥有成为优秀投资者所需的许多品质。” 他提到 ChatGPT-5.3 Codex 和 Claude 的 Opus 4.6，指出 AI 正在做出 “智能决策，甚至为自己的代码和改进做出贡献，创造出加速的反馈循环。”</p>
</div><p>When it comes to making investment decisions, he now acknowledges that, as indexation became a competitive threat to active investment management, AI may well push out &#34;average&#34; investors, partly because its rationale won't be tainted with human emotions like greed and fear.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在做出投资决策时，他现在承认，随着指数化成为对主动投资管理的竞争威胁，AI 可能会将 “普通” 投资者挤出市场，部分原因是其推理不会受到贪婪和恐惧等人类情感的影响。</p>
</div><p>Weighing the scales now, as opposed to his December debate over whether the AI investment theme is a bubble or not, Marks concludes by emphasizing that just because the technology is real and revolutionary doesn't mean that every investment in it is safe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在权衡利弊，与他在十二月关于 AI 投资主题是否是泡沫的辩论相比，马克斯总结强调，仅仅因为这项技术是真实且革命性的，并不意味着每一项投资都是安全的。</p>
</div><p>He regards circular revenue and &#34;lottery-ticket startups&#34; as risky. He is deeply worried about &#34;labor displacement&#34; but overall concludes it's just too early to say whether AI is &#34;a fad or an illusion.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他认为循环收入和 “彩票式初创公司” 是有风险的。他对 “劳动力置换” 深感担忧，但总体上得出结论，现在还为时已早，无法判断 AI 是 “一个潮流还是一个幻觉”。</p>
</div><p>Forecasts suggest Howard Marks (and many other commentators) are right to be concerned about labor displacement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预测表明，霍华德·马克斯（以及许多其他评论员）对劳动力置换的担忧是有道理的。</p>
</div><p>Not knowing whether the investment in AI infrastructure can produce an adequate return, Marks finds it hard to say whether hyperscalers are undervalued or overvalued. The potential for AI is most likely underestimated, he believes, &#34;but that's not the same as saying AI investments are on the bargain counter.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于不知道对 AI 基础设施的投资是否能产生足够的回报，马克斯很难判断超大规模公司是被低估还是被高估。他认为，AI 的潜力很可能被低估，“但这并不意味着 AI 投资是在打折出售。”</p>
</div><p>&#34;No one should go all-in,&#34; he says, but, &#34;by the same token, no one should stay all-out.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“没人应该全进，” 他说，“但同样，没有人应该全出。”</p>
</div><p>-Jules Rimmer</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-朱尔斯·里默</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 独立于道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》发布。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻社</p>
</div><p>02-27-26 0652ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>02-27-26 0652ET</p>
</div>

橡树资本的霍华德·马克斯在接受 Claude 教程后对人工智能的看法发生了 180 度的转变。他建议投资者这样应对人工智能