<p>参与当今颠覆性行业的初创企业以及标志未来行业的投机交易在周五遭遇重创。</p>
<p>这标志着投资者对资本支出狂潮的逐渐反抗。</p>
<p>这一趋势的典型代表是 CoreWeave，该公司在报告的第四季度资本支出数据超出预期，并且 2026 年的投资预算也令人惊讶地上调后，股价大幅下跌。</p>
<p>Neoclouds 和数据中心公司如 Nebius、IREN、Applied Digital 和 Cipher Mining 也遭受重创。量子计算公司 IonQ、D-Wave Quantum、Rigetti Computing 和 Infleqtion 同样如此。</p>
<p>这两者之间的共同联系是什么？</p>
<p>正如我们所讨论的，投机性股票往往有共同的持有者，并且以相对相关的方式交易。而且，这种同步下跌再次与对 AI 信用风险的感知升级相吻合。</p>
<p>这些小型 AI 公司实际上将其生存押注在这一繁荣以及资本市场愿意资助其扩张计划上，如果需求或信贷获取减少，它们将损失最大。当然，后者也会影响其他需要资本来增长的新兴行业公司。</p>
<p>私人信贷行业在其贷款活动中普遍偏重软件公司，但随着这些公司面临来自 AI 工具的竞争，正遭受严重压力。</p>
<p>Block 的裁员，无论首席执行官 Jack Dorsey 是否愿意承认之前的管理失误，都无法缓解人们对软件高管可能采取激烈行动以应对这一新兴技术影响的担忧。</p>
<p>与此同时，造成这种颠覆的源头——AI——也在不断吸引大量资本，但回报却不多。信用市场似乎同时不愿意资助软件公司，因为担心 AI 颠覆的威胁，也不愿意资助新兴的 AI 公司，因为缺乏自由现金流生成的可见性。这可不妙，Bob！</p>
<p>甲骨文作为最常用来衡量 AI 信用风险的大型股票，在管理层于 2 月 1 日表示今年约一半的资金需求将来自股权而非完全依赖债务后，其信用评级显著改善。现在，其五年期信用违约掉期的价差即将达到自 2009 年以来的最高水平。</p>

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<p>AI 信贷风险的回归对数据中心股票和投机交易产生了负面影响。像 CoreWeave、Nebius 和 IonQ 这样的公司由于资本支出超出预期以及对信贷获取的担忧而面临下滑。私募信贷行业承受压力，因为软件公司与 AI 工具竞争，这导致人们对软件和 AI 初创公司的资金短缺感到担忧。甲骨文在宣布转向股权融资后，其信用状况有所改善，但其信用违约掉期的价差达到了自 2009 年以来的最高水平</p>

<p>The upstarts participating in the disruptive industry of today as well as the speculative trades that mark the industries of the future are getting crushed on Friday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>参与当今颠覆性行业的初创企业以及标志未来行业的投机交易在周五遭遇重创。</p>
</div><p>It’s a sign of the creeping investor revolt against the capex binge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这标志着投资者对资本支出狂潮的逐渐反抗。</p>
</div><p>The poster child for the move is CoreWeave, which is sinking after reporting Q4 capex figures that were larger than expected along with a 2026 investment budget that also surprised to the upside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一趋势的典型代表是 CoreWeave，该公司在报告的第四季度资本支出数据超出预期，并且 2026 年的投资预算也令人惊讶地上调后，股价大幅下跌。</p>
</div><p>Neoclouds and data center companies like Nebius, IREN, Applied Digital, and Cipher Mining are also getting whacked. So too are the quantum computing companies: IonQ, D-Wave Quantum, Rigetti Computing, and Infleqtion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Neoclouds 和数据中心公司如 Nebius、IREN、Applied Digital 和 Cipher Mining 也遭受重创。量子计算公司 IonQ、D-Wave Quantum、Rigetti Computing 和 Infleqtion 同样如此。</p>
</div><p>What’s the common link between these two things?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这两者之间的共同联系是什么？</p>
</div><p>Well, as we’ve discussed, speculative stocks tend to have common owners and trade in a relatively correlated fashion. And once again, this simultaneous swoon is coinciding with a perceived escalation in AI credit risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如我们所讨论的，投机性股票往往有共同的持有者，并且以相对相关的方式交易。而且，这种同步下跌再次与对 AI 信用风险的感知升级相吻合。</p>
</div><p>These smaller AI companies that have effectively bet their existence on this boom and the willingness of capital markets to fund their expansion plans would have the most to lose if either demand or access to credit shrinks. And, of course, the latter would impact other companies in nascent industries that need capital to grow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些小型 AI 公司实际上将其生存押注在这一繁荣以及资本市场愿意资助其扩张计划上，如果需求或信贷获取减少，它们将损失最大。当然，后者也会影响其他需要资本来增长的新兴行业公司。</p>
</div><p>The private credit industry, which has been broadly overweight software companies in their lending activities, is coming under severe pressure as those firms face competition from AI tools.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>私人信贷行业在其贷款活动中普遍偏重软件公司，但随着这些公司面临来自 AI 工具的竞争，正遭受严重压力。</p>
</div><p>Block’s job cuts, regardless of any previous mismanagement CEO Jack Dorsey is willing to cop to, will do little to allay fears that software executives may take dramatic actions to grapple with the impacts of this emergent technology.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Block 的裁员，无论首席执行官 Jack Dorsey 是否愿意承认之前的管理失误，都无法缓解人们对软件高管可能采取激烈行动以应对这一新兴技术影响的担忧。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the source of that disruption — AI — is also continuing to suck in a lot of capital without much in the way of returns. It feels like the credit market simultaneously doesn’t want to fund software because of the AI disruption threat and doesn’t want to fund upstart AI firms because of the lack of visibility into free cash flow generation. Not great, Bob!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，造成这种颠覆的源头——AI——也在不断吸引大量资本，但回报却不多。信用市场似乎同时不愿意资助软件公司，因为担心 AI 颠覆的威胁，也不愿意资助新兴的 AI 公司，因为缺乏自由现金流生成的可见性。这可不妙，Bob！</p>
</div><p>Oracle, the large-cap stock most used as a barometer for AI credit risk, enjoyed a sharp improvement in its perceived creditworthiness after management said on February 1 that about half their funding needs this year would come from equity, rather than fully from debt. Now, its five-year credit default swaps are poised to close at their widest level since 2009.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>甲骨文作为最常用来衡量 AI 信用风险的大型股票，在管理层于 2 月 1 日表示今年约一半的资金需求将来自股权而非完全依赖债务后，其信用评级显著改善。现在，其五年期信用违约掉期的价差即将达到自 2009 年以来的最高水平。</p>
</div>

The return of AI credit risk is crushing data center stocks, tipping over other speculative trades in the process

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人工智能信用风险的回归正在重创数据中心股票，并在此过程中影响其他投机性交易