<p>TradingKey - 最近，由于业绩未达预期、人工智能泡沫争论以及人工智能颠覆理论等因素的影响，特斯拉（TSLA）的股价持续下跌，从 2025 年 12 月的高点下跌近 20%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260228/TSLA-stock-0228-ef72051ed5244aa39525058d6df04727.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260228/TSLA-stock-0228-ef72051ed5244aa39525058d6df04727.jpg"/></p>
<h2><strong>特斯拉当前下跌的真实原因</strong></h2>
<p>普遍观点认为，特斯拉当前的调整并非由单一因素造成，而是其基本面和估值逻辑同时承受压力。</p>
<p>首先，在业绩层面，电动车（EV）业务持续放缓。全球需求增长减弱，价格战压缩了利润率，国内汽车制造商如比亚迪在中国市场的竞争加剧，抢占了市场份额。此外，欧洲补贴的撤回和美国高利率环境抑制了消费者需求，给交付带来了压力。</p>
<p>最新的财报显示，汽车毛利率依然较低，远低于之前的峰值水平，导致市场对盈利复苏的速度产生怀疑。</p>
<p>其次，市场对人工智能的预期降温。在过去一年中，市场将特斯拉视为 “人工智能 + 自动驾驶” 的投资，而不仅仅是一家汽车制造商，这显著提升了其估值。</p>
<p>然而，随着人工智能泡沫争论的加剧，以及自动驾驶商业化进展未能达到部分投资者的预期，资本开始重新评估溢价的合理性。关于 FSD 在中国等关键市场的批准和实施仍存在不确定性，Robotaxi 商业模式尚未得到验证，短期内难以贡献稳定的现金流。</p>
<p>此外，宏观经济环境依然不友好。美联储维持高利率的时间比预期更长，给 2026 年高估值成长股带来了整体压力；股价从 2025 年 12 月的高点回落近 20% 本质上是估值压缩，而非单纯的情绪波动。</p>
<h2><strong>特斯拉能否重获市场青睐？</strong></h2>
<p>特斯拉能否重新吸引投资者的兴趣，取决于其股价是否跌得足够深，而在于其增长逻辑是否能够重新建立。当前市场对特斯拉的分歧非常明显。</p>
<p>一些投资者仍将其视为核心的人工智能和自动驾驶投资，认为一旦 FSD 实现规模化商业化，Robotaxi 开始贡献收入，估值框架将从 “汽车制造商” 转变为 “科技平台”。然而，大多数主流机构目前持谨慎态度，直接原因是核心电动车业务增长放缓，而新业务尚未产生稳定利润。</p>
<p>从现实来看，电动车业务仍然是利润的核心。如果全球交付持续以低速增长，且价格战在较长时间内保持毛利率低迷，即使是最雄心勃勃的人工智能叙事也难以支撑高估值。</p>
<p>相反，如果销售增长在 2026 年恢复，毛利率回到相对健康的范围，同时 FSD 的货币化模式变得更加清晰，市场情绪可能会显著改善。</p>
<p>另一个变量是资本市场风格的转变。如果降息预期持续减弱，紧缩的金融环境可能使高估值成长股难以反弹；如果货币环境转向宽松，风险偏好改善，特斯拉作为高贝塔股票，往往会成为最早反弹的股票之一。</p>
<p>最终，特斯拉能否重获市场青睐，取决于其业绩能否跟上其叙事。谈论人工智能是不够的，仅仅卖车也不够。两个方面必须同时改善，市场才能再次给予溢价。</p>
<h2><strong>投资者应如何处理特斯拉股票？</strong></h2>
<p>从交易的角度来看，目前阶段更适合控制仓位，而不是盲目抄底。投资者可以考虑风险对冲，例如使用期权对冲下行风险，或通过配置新能源 ETF 来分散单一公司的波动。</p>
<p>从中长期的角度来看，关键在于判断特斯拉能否恢复增长。如果你相信它在自动驾驶和储能等领域仍然具有长期优势，可以在回调时采取分批买入的策略，并在趋势增强时增加仓位。这涉及在估值回落至历史均值或关键技术支撑位时逐步买入，并在业绩改善得到确认且趋势获得动能时增加仓位。这样可以避免因单一大仓位带来的方向性错误风险。</p>
<p>明确来说，2026 年股价是否继续下跌取决于两个变量：首先，电动车利润率能否停止下滑并反弹；其次，自动驾驶和人工智能业务能否兑现预期。</p>
<p>如果盈利能力仍然疲弱，市场可能会继续压缩估值；如果增长重新加速，股价回升的空间将会很大。在这个阶段，与其预测底部，不如管理风险。</p>
<p>了解更多</p>

TESL

特斯拉

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Leverage Shares

<p>特斯拉的股票自 2025 年 12 月以来已下跌近 20%，原因是电动车需求疲软、价格战和高利率。公司的汽车毛利率较低，引发了对盈利复苏的质疑。此外，人工智能预期的降温和对自动驾驶的不确定性也对估值施加了压力。投资者对特斯拉的未来看法不一，有些人对人工智能持乐观态度，而另一些人则因电动车增长放缓而持谨慎态度。对于投资者来说，建议控制持仓规模并考虑风险对冲，同时监测特斯拉恢复增长的能力对于长期策略至关重要</p>

<p>TradingKey - Recently, influenced by factors such as earnings missing expectations, as well as the AI bubble debate and AI disruption theories, Tesla (TSLA) its stock price has continued to decline, falling nearly 20% from its December 2025 high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingKey - 最近，由于业绩未达预期、人工智能泡沫争论以及人工智能颠覆理论等因素的影响，特斯拉（TSLA）的股价持续下跌，从 2025 年 12 月的高点下跌近 20%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260228/TSLA-stock-0228-ef72051ed5244aa39525058d6df04727.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260228/TSLA-stock-0228-ef72051ed5244aa39525058d6df04727.jpg"/></p>
<h2><strong>The Real Reasons Behind Tesla's Current Decline</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>特斯拉当前下跌的真实原因</strong></h2>
</div><p>The prevailing view is that Tesla's current correction is not caused by a single factor, but rather by simultaneous pressure on its fundamentals and valuation logic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>普遍观点认为，特斯拉当前的调整并非由单一因素造成，而是其基本面和估值逻辑同时承受压力。</p>
</div><p>First, on the performance level, the electric vehicle (EV) business continues to slow. Global demand growth is weakening, price wars are squeezing profit margins, and competition in the Chinese market is intensifying as domestic automakers like BYD seize market share. Additionally, the withdrawal of subsidies in Europe and the high-interest-rate environment in the U.S. dampening consumer demand have all put pressure on deliveries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，在业绩层面，电动车（EV）业务持续放缓。全球需求增长减弱，价格战压缩了利润率，国内汽车制造商如比亚迪在中国市场的竞争加剧，抢占了市场份额。此外，欧洲补贴的撤回和美国高利率环境抑制了消费者需求，给交付带来了压力。</p>
</div><p>The latest financial report shows that automotive gross margins remain low, far below previous peak levels, leading the market to doubt the pace of earnings recovery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最新的财报显示，汽车毛利率依然较低，远低于之前的峰值水平，导致市场对盈利复苏的速度产生怀疑。</p>
</div><p>Secondly, expectations for AI have cooled. Over the past year, the market viewed Tesla as an &#34;AI + autonomous driving&#34; play rather than just an automaker, which significantly boosted its valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，市场对人工智能的预期降温。在过去一年中，市场将特斯拉视为 “人工智能 + 自动驾驶” 的投资，而不仅仅是一家汽车制造商，这显著提升了其估值。</p>
</div><p>However, as the AI bubble controversy heats up and the progress of autonomous driving commercialization falls short of some investors' expectations, capital has begun to reassess the rationality of the premium. Uncertainties remain regarding the approval and implementation of FSD in key markets like China, and the Robotaxi business model has yet to be proven, making it difficult to contribute stable cash flow in the short term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，随着人工智能泡沫争论的加剧，以及自动驾驶商业化进展未能达到部分投资者的预期，资本开始重新评估溢价的合理性。关于 FSD 在中国等关键市场的批准和实施仍存在不确定性，Robotaxi 商业模式尚未得到验证，短期内难以贡献稳定的现金流。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, the macroeconomic environment remains unfriendly. The Federal Reserve has maintained high interest rates longer than previously expected, putting overall pressure on high-valuation growth stocks in 2026; the stock price's nearly 20% pullback from its December 2025 high is essentially a valuation compression rather than mere sentiment volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，宏观经济环境依然不友好。美联储维持高利率的时间比预期更长，给 2026 年高估值成长股带来了整体压力；股价从 2025 年 12 月的高点回落近 20% 本质上是估值压缩，而非单纯的情绪波动。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Can Tesla Regain Market Favor?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>特斯拉能否重获市场青睐？</strong></h2>
</div><p>Whether Tesla can regain investor interest depends not on whether the stock price has fallen deep enough, but on whether its growth logic can be re-established. Current market divergence over Tesla is very pronounced.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉能否重新吸引投资者的兴趣，取决于其股价是否跌得足够深，而在于其增长逻辑是否能够重新建立。当前市场对特斯拉的分歧非常明显。</p>
</div><p>Some investors still view it as a core AI and autonomous driving play, believing that once FSD is commercialized at scale and Robotaxi begins contributing revenue, the valuation framework will shift from an &#34;automaker&#34; to a &#34;tech platform.&#34; However, most mainstream institutions are currently cautious for a direct reason: growth in the core EV business is slowing while new businesses have yet to generate stable profits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些投资者仍将其视为核心的人工智能和自动驾驶投资，认为一旦 FSD 实现规模化商业化，Robotaxi 开始贡献收入，估值框架将从 “汽车制造商” 转变为 “科技平台”。然而，大多数主流机构目前持谨慎态度，直接原因是核心电动车业务增长放缓，而新业务尚未产生稳定利润。</p>
</div><p>Looking at the reality, the EV business remains the core of profits. If global deliveries continue to grow at a low rate and price wars keep gross margins low for an extended period, even the most ambitious AI narrative will struggle to support a high valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从现实来看，电动车业务仍然是利润的核心。如果全球交付持续以低速增长，且价格战在较长时间内保持毛利率低迷，即使是最雄心勃勃的人工智能叙事也难以支撑高估值。</p>
</div><p>Conversely, if sales growth resumes around 2026 and gross margins return to a relatively healthy range, while the FSD monetization model becomes clearer, market sentiment could see a significant improvement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，如果销售增长在 2026 年恢复，毛利率回到相对健康的范围，同时 FSD 的货币化模式变得更加清晰，市场情绪可能会显著改善。</p>
</div><p>Another variable is the shift in capital market styles. If expectations for rate cuts continue to diminish, tightening financial conditions may make it difficult for high-valuation growth stocks to rally; if the monetary environment turns accommodative and risk appetite improves, Tesla, as a high-beta stock, often tends to be among the first to rebound.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个变量是资本市场风格的转变。如果降息预期持续减弱，紧缩的金融环境可能使高估值成长股难以反弹；如果货币环境转向宽松，风险偏好改善，特斯拉作为高贝塔股票，往往会成为最早反弹的股票之一。</p>
</div><p>Ultimately, Tesla's ability to regain market favor depends on whether its performance can keep up with its narrative. Talking about AI is not enough, and just selling cars is not enough. Both fronts must improve simultaneously for the market to grant a premium again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最终，特斯拉能否重获市场青睐，取决于其业绩能否跟上其叙事。谈论人工智能是不够的，仅仅卖车也不够。两个方面必须同时改善，市场才能再次给予溢价。</p>
</div><h2><strong>How Should Investors Handle Tesla Stock?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>投资者应如何处理特斯拉股票？</strong></h2>
</div><p>From a trading perspective, the current stage is better suited for controlling position sizes rather than blindly bottom-fishing. Investors might consider risk hedging, such as using options to hedge downside risk or diversifying single-company volatility by allocating to new energy ETFs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从交易的角度来看，目前阶段更适合控制仓位，而不是盲目抄底。投资者可以考虑风险对冲，例如使用期权对冲下行风险，或通过配置新能源 ETF 来分散单一公司的波动。</p>
</div><p>From a medium-to-long-term perspective, the key is to determine whether Tesla can resume growth. If you believe it still holds long-term advantages in areas like autonomous driving and energy storage, you could adopt a strategy of buying in batches during pullbacks and adding to positions as the trend strengthens. This involves buying in increments when the valuation retreats to historical means or key technical support levels, and increasing position sizes when performance improvements are confirmed and the trend gains momentum. Doing so helps avoid the risk of directional errors associated with a single large position.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从中长期的角度来看，关键在于判断特斯拉能否恢复增长。如果你相信它在自动驾驶和储能等领域仍然具有长期优势，可以在回调时采取分批买入的策略，并在趋势增强时增加仓位。这涉及在估值回落至历史均值或关键技术支撑位时逐步买入，并在业绩改善得到确认且趋势获得动能时增加仓位。这样可以避免因单一大仓位带来的方向性错误风险。</p>
</div><p>To be clear, whether the stock price continues to fall in 2026 depends on two variables: first, whether EV profit margins can stop declining and rebound; second, whether autonomous driving and AI businesses can deliver on expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>明确来说，2026 年股价是否继续下跌取决于两个变量：首先，电动车利润率能否停止下滑并反弹；其次，自动驾驶和人工智能业务能否兑现预期。</p>
</div><p>If profitability remains weak, the market is likely to continue compressing valuations; if growth re-accelerates, there is significant room for a stock price recovery. At this stage, rather than predicting the bottom, it is better to manage risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果盈利能力仍然疲弱，市场可能会继续压缩估值；如果增长重新加速，股价回升的空间将会很大。在这个阶段，与其预测底部，不如管理风险。</p>
</div><p>Find out more</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>了解更多</p>
</div>

How Tesla Survives the Cold Winter, Will Tesla Stock Continue to Fall in 2026?

- 特斯拉股价因业绩未达预期及 AI 泡沫争论下跌近 20%。  
- 电动汽车业务放缓、利润率受压及市场竞争加剧是主要原因。  
- 若特斯拉能重拾增长逻辑，将有望恢复投资者信心。

TradingKey

Simplify Volt TSLA Revolution ETF

特斯拉如何度过寒冬，特斯拉的股票会在 2026 年继续下跌吗？