<p>香港财政司司长表示，香港在未来五年内不计划再次从其外汇基金中进行转移，引用了一项新的中期预测，解释了为何这一罕见的举措不会重演。财政司司长陈茂波在周六详细阐述了他的计划，此前他在预算公告中提到将从政府的主要投资机构和事实上的主权财富基金中提取 1500 亿港元（192 亿美元），引发了人们对城市金融稳定性的担忧。陈茂波在一档广播节目中表示：“在整个中期预测中，除了刚提到的 1500 亿港元的转移外，实际上没有其他转移被预测。” 他表示：“我不会将此作为常规做法。” 他的保证是在周三的预算公告之后，政府将每年从外汇基金的投资收益中提取 750 亿港元，为期两年，以补充资本工程储备基金。这一举措是基于外汇基金去年创纪录的 3300 亿港元投资收益，旨在支持北部大都会及其他基础设施项目。陈茂波辩称，考虑到基金的总资产超过 4.1 万亿港元，这一转移仅占去年投资收益的一半，不会削弱城市的金融稳定性或其捍卫货币锚的能力。他表示：“我们考虑到了外汇基金的庞大规模，” 强调资金是从金融投资重新分配到基础设施项目，这些项目最终将产生税收和经济回报。然而，这一前所未有的举措引起了金融保守派的关注。专家们警告称，若将此类提取作为常规做法，可能会削弱香港长期以来的金融审慎声誉。谈及北部大都会的融资，陈茂波透露政府的债券发行策略发生了变化。他表示，尽管政府传统上偏好短期债务以利用较低的利率，但现在将增加长期债券的比例。他还表示，未来政府将探索发行更多长期债券，以更好地将现金流与大型项目的基础设施投资对接。他指出，基础设施项目在产生收入之前通常需要较长的孵化期，因此长期债务是一种更为审慎的方式来对接资产和负债。政府预测其债务与国内生产总值的比率将在未来五年内从当前的 14.4% 上升至约 19.9%，陈茂波坚称这一水平在国际标准下仍然 “相对较低”。陈茂波还概述了政府在推动大都会私营部门发展方面将采取更积极的角色。他表示，政府将超越传统的 “出价最高者得” 的土地销售模式，积极与持有土地储备的私人开发商和寻求在城市建立立足点的科技企业合作。“我们鼓励拥有土地的开发商，如果他们寻找科技企业或先进制造公司，可以来找政府，” 陈茂波说。他补充说，政府准备促进土地招标，甚至共同投资项目以加快开发。这一做法标志着政府在土地开发方面的传统放任态度的重大转变。它也被视为城市在创新方面努力追赶的更具干预性的产业政策信号。香港科技大学公共政策实践教授 Donald Low 表示，虽然利用金融储备为基础设施项目融资在全球范围内是一种常见且具成本效益的策略，但它存在通过绕过市场审查而侵蚀金融纪律的风险。他说：“与从市场借款不同，从储备中提取并不会自然对政府施加任何纪律。” 他指出：“借款时，市场充当了约束机制。而从储备中提取时，除了政府自身，没有其他约束机制。” Low 还对政府未来的财务纪律表示担忧。“这些提取的主要担忧在于，随着时间的推移，政府可能会变得不那么自律，更依赖于其储备作为廉价融资来源，” 他补充道。“谁来决定从储备中融资的项目是否能在长期内产生正回报？” Low 认为，陈茂波的个人保证在没有制度性保障的情况下是不够的，并指出香港缺乏其他司法管辖区的正式约束，防止未来政府过度提取。“没有正式的规则限制或约束当今政府从多年积累的储备中提取的金额，” 他说。“例如，新加坡有一项 ‘双钥匙’ 规则，要求政府在提取过去储备时获得议会和总统的批准。”</p>

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<p>香港财政司司长陈茂波宣布，未来五年内不计划从外汇基金进行进一步转移，此前曾有争议地提取了 1500 亿港元用于支持基础设施项目。陈强调，这一转移并非常规做法，并保证基金的稳定性仍然完好。他还透露，将转向长期债券发行，以与基础设施融资相匹配。专家警告，依赖储备可能会削弱财务纪律，强调需要制度性保障措施以防止未来过度提取</p>

<p>Hong Kong does not plan to make another transfer from its Exchange Fund in the next five years, the finance chief has said, citing a new medium-range forecast that explains why the rare move will not be repeated. Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po elaborated on his plan on Saturday, after his budget announcement that he would withdraw HK$150 billion (US$19.2 billion) from the government’s main investment arm and de facto sovereign wealth fund sparked concerns about the city’s financial stability. “In the entire medium-range forecast, apart from the HK$150 billion transfer over the two years just mentioned, there are actually no other transfers projected,” Chan told a radio programme. “I will not make this a normal practice.” His assurances follow Wednesday’s budget announcement that the government would withdraw HK$75 billion annually for two years from the Exchange Fund’s investment income to top up the Capital Works Reserve Fund. The move, justified by the Exchange Fund’s record-high investment income of HK$330 billion last year, aims to support the Northern Metropolis and other infrastructure projects. Chan argued that with the fund’s total assets exceeding HK$4.1 trillion, the transfer represented only about half of last year’s investment gains and would not undermine the city’s financial stability or its ability to defend the currency peg. “We took into account the large size of the Exchange Fund,” he said, emphasising that the funds were being reallocated from financial investments to infrastructure projects that would eventually generate tax and economic returns. But the unprecedented move has raised eyebrows among financial conservatives. Experts have cautioned that making such withdrawals a regular practice could undermine the city’s long-held reputation for financial prudence. Addressing the financing of the Northern Metropolis, Chan disclosed a shift in the government’s bond issuance strategy. While the administration had traditionally favoured short-term debt to take advantage of lower interest rates, it would now increase the proportion of longer-term bonds, he said. He also said that going forward, the government would explore issuing a greater proportion of long-term bonds to better align cash flow with infrastructure investments in the megaproject. He noted that infrastructure projects had long gestation periods before generating revenue, making long-term debt a more prudent way to align assets and liabilities. The government forecast its level of debt-to-gross domestic product would rise from the current 14.4 per cent to about 19.9 per cent over the next five years, a level Chan insisted remained “relatively low” by international standards. Chan also outlined a more hands-on government role in driving private sector development within the metropolis. Moving beyond the traditional “highest bidder wins” land sale model, authorities would actively partner with private developers holding land banks and with technology enterprises seeking to establish footholds in the city, he said. “We encourage developers who have land to come to the government if they have looked for tech enterprises or advanced manufacturing firms,” Chan said. He added that the government was prepared to facilitate land tenders or even co-invest in projects to speed up development. The approach marks a significant departure from the government’s traditional laissez-faire stance towards land development. It is also considered a signal of a more interventionist industrial policy as the city strives to catch up in terms of innovation. Donald Low, professor of practice in public policy at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, said that while tapping financial reserves to fund infrastructure projects was a common and cost-effective strategy globally, it carried the risk of eroding financial discipline by bypassing market scrutiny. “Unlike borrowing from the market, drawing from reserves doesn’t naturally impose any discipline on the government,” he said. “With borrowing, the market serves as a disciplining mechanism. With drawing from reserves, there’s no disciplining mechanism other than the government itself.” Low also expressed concerns about the government’s future financial discipline. “The main concern with these drawdowns is that, over time, the government may become less disciplined and more reliant on its reserves as a cheap source of financing,” he added. “Who decides whether the project that is to be financed from reserves is something that generates a positive return over the long term?” Low argued that Chan’s personal assurances were insufficient without institutional safeguards, noting Hong Kong lacked the formal constraints of other jurisdictions that prevented excessive drawdowns by future administrations. “There’s no formal rule that limits or constrains how much the government of the day can draw from reserves accumulated over many years,” he said. “Singapore, for instance, has a ‘two-key’ rule that requires the government to obtain both parliamentary and presidential approvals for any drawdown from past reserves.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>香港财政司司长表示，香港在未来五年内不计划再次从其外汇基金中进行转移，引用了一项新的中期预测，解释了为何这一罕见的举措不会重演。财政司司长陈茂波在周六详细阐述了他的计划，此前他在预算公告中提到将从政府的主要投资机构和事实上的主权财富基金中提取 1500 亿港元（192 亿美元），引发了人们对城市金融稳定性的担忧。陈茂波在一档广播节目中表示：“在整个中期预测中，除了刚提到的 1500 亿港元的转移外，实际上没有其他转移被预测。” 他表示：“我不会将此作为常规做法。” 他的保证是在周三的预算公告之后，政府将每年从外汇基金的投资收益中提取 750 亿港元，为期两年，以补充资本工程储备基金。这一举措是基于外汇基金去年创纪录的 3300 亿港元投资收益，旨在支持北部大都会及其他基础设施项目。陈茂波辩称，考虑到基金的总资产超过 4.1 万亿港元，这一转移仅占去年投资收益的一半，不会削弱城市的金融稳定性或其捍卫货币锚的能力。他表示：“我们考虑到了外汇基金的庞大规模，” 强调资金是从金融投资重新分配到基础设施项目，这些项目最终将产生税收和经济回报。然而，这一前所未有的举措引起了金融保守派的关注。专家们警告称，若将此类提取作为常规做法，可能会削弱香港长期以来的金融审慎声誉。谈及北部大都会的融资，陈茂波透露政府的债券发行策略发生了变化。他表示，尽管政府传统上偏好短期债务以利用较低的利率，但现在将增加长期债券的比例。他还表示，未来政府将探索发行更多长期债券，以更好地将现金流与大型项目的基础设施投资对接。他指出，基础设施项目在产生收入之前通常需要较长的孵化期，因此长期债务是一种更为审慎的方式来对接资产和负债。政府预测其债务与国内生产总值的比率将在未来五年内从当前的 14.4% 上升至约 19.9%，陈茂波坚称这一水平在国际标准下仍然 “相对较低”。陈茂波还概述了政府在推动大都会私营部门发展方面将采取更积极的角色。他表示，政府将超越传统的 “出价最高者得” 的土地销售模式，积极与持有土地储备的私人开发商和寻求在城市建立立足点的科技企业合作。“我们鼓励拥有土地的开发商，如果他们寻找科技企业或先进制造公司，可以来找政府，” 陈茂波说。他补充说，政府准备促进土地招标，甚至共同投资项目以加快开发。这一做法标志着政府在土地开发方面的传统放任态度的重大转变。它也被视为城市在创新方面努力追赶的更具干预性的产业政策信号。香港科技大学公共政策实践教授 Donald Low 表示，虽然利用金融储备为基础设施项目融资在全球范围内是一种常见且具成本效益的策略，但它存在通过绕过市场审查而侵蚀金融纪律的风险。他说：“与从市场借款不同，从储备中提取并不会自然对政府施加任何纪律。” 他指出：“借款时，市场充当了约束机制。而从储备中提取时，除了政府自身，没有其他约束机制。” Low 还对政府未来的财务纪律表示担忧。“这些提取的主要担忧在于，随着时间的推移，政府可能会变得不那么自律，更依赖于其储备作为廉价融资来源，” 他补充道。“谁来决定从储备中融资的项目是否能在长期内产生正回报？” Low 认为，陈茂波的个人保证在没有制度性保障的情况下是不够的，并指出香港缺乏其他司法管辖区的正式约束，防止未来政府过度提取。“没有正式的规则限制或约束当今政府从多年积累的储备中提取的金额，” 他说。“例如，新加坡有一项 ‘双钥匙’ 规则，要求政府在提取过去储备时获得议会和总统的批准。”</p>
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保罗·陈表示，未来五年内不计划再次进行外汇基金的转移