<p>Kalshi 首席执行官塔雷克·曼苏尔（Tarek Mansour）为其平台处理与伊朗最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊（Ali Khamenei）相关的有争议的预测市场合约辩护，哈梅内伊在周六早晨的美以袭击中被杀。</p>
<p>&#34;我们不直接列出与死亡相关的市场，&#34;曼苏尔在 X 上写道。&#34;当市场的潜在结果涉及死亡时，我们会设计规则以防止人们从死亡中获利。&#34;</p>
<p>根据预测市场分析师达斯汀·高克（Dustin Gouker）的说法，名为&#34;阿里·哈梅内伊会下台吗？&#34;的市场自 1 月 9 日上线以来，累计交易量超过 5000 万美元，仅在周六就交易了约 2000 万美元。</p>
<p>根据 CFTC 提交的合约条款，如果哈梅内伊去世，头寸将以他去世前的最后交易价格结算，而不是以二元的&#34;是&#34;支付。曼苏尔表示，该价格在周六东部时间凌晨 1:14 记录。进入头寸的交易者在他去世后将获得全额退款。</p>
<p>结算过程并不顺利。根据 DeFi Rate 的报道，Kalshi 在东部时间下午 2:59 左右暂停交易，并在晚上 10:06 正式关闭合约。该平台当天发布了两次澄清，承认之前的结算语言&#34;在语法上模糊不清。&#34;</p>
<p>CFTC 提交的条款提到&#34;去世前的最后交易价格，&#34;而市场页面则写道&#34;在确认死亡报告前的最后交易价格。&#34;这个区别很重要：哈梅内伊实际去世与确认公开报告之间的时间差覆盖了几个小时的活跃交易。</p>
<p>许多反对意见集中在 Kalshi 如何推广该市场上。当哈梅内伊去世的消息在周六早晨传播时，Kalshi 在 X 上发布了&#34;突发新闻：阿里·哈梅内伊下台的概率已飙升至 68%。&#34;曼苏尔转发了这条消息。前 SEC 首席工作人员、现任 Better Markets 的阿曼达·费舍尔（Amanda Fischer）形容这是一种&#34;或多或少是在提供暗杀的代理市场。&#34;</p>
<p>其他人指出他们认为 Kalshi 立场的不一致。该平台之前运行过一个&#34;谁将出席特朗普的就职典礼？&#34;的市场，其中包括吉米·卡特作为选项。在卡特于 2024 年 12 月底去世时，Kalshi 将该合约结算为&#34;否，&#34;有效地解决了一个基于某人死亡的市场。&#34;你们在死亡时结算，只是当这对你们有利时不结算，&#34;一条在 X 上广泛分享的帖子如此辩称，将这一结果与哈梅内伊的死亡例外进行了对比。</p>
<p>曼苏尔辩称，哈梅内伊市场具有合法目的，引用了伊朗领导层变动的地缘政治、经济和国家安全影响。他指出委内瑞拉最近的权力过渡作为证据，表明独裁领导人可以在不死亡的情况下离开权力。</p>
<p>这一争议在行业的紧张时刻出现。几天前，由亚当·希夫（Adam Schiff）领导的六位民主党参议员向 CFTC 主席迈克尔·塞利格（Michael Selig）发出信函，敦促该机构禁止与个人死亡相关的合约，引用了与委内瑞拉和乌克兰相关的有争议的 Polymarket 合约。</p>
<p>包括 Kalshi 在内的预测市场行业团体&#34;预测市场联盟&#34;回应称，&#34;涉及死亡的合约在美国交易所没有立足之地，&#34;并且受监管的平台已经禁止这些合约。</p>
<p>Kalshi 已将自己定位为一个合规优先的参与者，在去年产生超过 440 亿美元交易量的预测市场行业中，正如 The Block 之前报道的那样。参议员的信函设定了 CFTC 在 3 月 9 日之前作出回应的截止日期。</p>
<p>免责声明：The Block 是一个独立的媒体机构，提供新闻、研究和数据。截至 2023 年 11 月，Foresight Ventures 是 The Block 的主要投资者。Foresight Ventures 还投资于其他加密领域的公司。加密交易所 Bitget 是 Foresight Ventures 的主要有限合伙人。The Block 继续独立运营，以提供关于加密行业的客观、影响深远和及时的信息。以下是我们当前的财务披露。</p>
<p>© 2026 The Block。版权所有。本文仅供信息参考。并不提供或意图作为法律、税务、投资、金融或其他建议。</p>

<p>Kalshi 首席执行官塔雷克·曼苏尔（Tarek Mansour）为与伊朗最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊（Ali Khamenei）相关的预测市场合约辩护，哈梅内伊在美以袭击中遇害。他表示，该市场旨在防止从死亡中获利，并为在哈梅内伊去世后进入市场的交易者提供退款。该市场因其推广和处理方式受到批评，尤其是在之前一个市场以死亡结果结算之后。曼苏尔辩称，该市场具有合法的地缘政治意义，而六位民主党参议员则呼吁商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）禁止与死亡相关的合约。Kalshi 旨在成为预测市场行业中一个以合规为重点的参与者</p>

<p>Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour defended his platform's handling of a controversial prediction market contract tied to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes early Saturday morning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Kalshi 首席执行官塔雷克·曼苏尔（Tarek Mansour）为其平台处理与伊朗最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊（Ali Khamenei）相关的有争议的预测市场合约辩护，哈梅内伊在周六早晨的美以袭击中被杀。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We don't list markets directly tied to death,&#34; Mansour wrote on X. &#34;When there are markets where potential outcomes involve death, we design the rules to prevent people from profiting from death.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;我们不直接列出与死亡相关的市场，&#34;曼苏尔在 X 上写道。&#34;当市场的潜在结果涉及死亡时，我们会设计规则以防止人们从死亡中获利。&#34;</p>
</div><p>The market, titled &#34;Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader?&#34;, had been live since January 9 and accumulated more than $50 million in total volume, with roughly $20 million trading on Saturday alone, according to prediction market analyst Dustin Gouker.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据预测市场分析师达斯汀·高克（Dustin Gouker）的说法，名为&#34;阿里·哈梅内伊会下台吗？&#34;的市场自 1 月 9 日上线以来，累计交易量超过 5000 万美元，仅在周六就交易了约 2000 万美元。</p>
</div><p>Under the CFTC-filed contract terms, if Khamenei died, positions would settle at the last-traded price before his death rather than resolving to a binary &#34;Yes&#34; payout. Mansour said that price was recorded at 1:14 AM ET Saturday. Traders who entered positions after his death will receive full refunds of their cost of entry, he added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 CFTC 提交的合约条款，如果哈梅内伊去世，头寸将以他去世前的最后交易价格结算，而不是以二元的&#34;是&#34;支付。曼苏尔表示，该价格在周六东部时间凌晨 1:14 记录。进入头寸的交易者在他去世后将获得全额退款。</p>
</div><p>The settlement did not go smoothly. Kalshi halted trading at roughly 2:59 PM ET and formally closed the contracts at 10:06 PM ET, per DeFi Rate. The platform issued two clarifications during the day, acknowledging that prior settlement language was &#34;grammatically ambiguous.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>结算过程并不顺利。根据 DeFi Rate 的报道，Kalshi 在东部时间下午 2:59 左右暂停交易，并在晚上 10:06 正式关闭合约。该平台当天发布了两次澄清，承认之前的结算语言&#34;在语法上模糊不清。&#34;</p>
</div><p>The CFTC-filed terms referenced the &#34;last traded price (prior to the death),&#34; while the market page read &#34;last traded price prior to confirmed reporting of death.&#34; That distinction mattered: the gap between Khamenei's actual death and confirmed public reporting covered hours of active trading.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CFTC 提交的条款提到&#34;去世前的最后交易价格，&#34;而市场页面则写道&#34;在确认死亡报告前的最后交易价格。&#34;这个区别很重要：哈梅内伊实际去世与确认公开报告之间的时间差覆盖了几个小时的活跃交易。</p>
</div><p>Much of the backlash focused on how Kalshi promoted the market. While reports of Khamenei's death circulated Saturday morning, Kalshi posted on X: &#34;BREAKING: The odds Ali Khamenei is out as Supreme Leader have surged to 68%.&#34; Mansour reposted it. Amanda Fischer, a former SEC chief of staff now at Better Markets, described it as &#34;more or less offering a proxy market on assassination.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多反对意见集中在 Kalshi 如何推广该市场上。当哈梅内伊去世的消息在周六早晨传播时，Kalshi 在 X 上发布了&#34;突发新闻：阿里·哈梅内伊下台的概率已飙升至 68%。&#34;曼苏尔转发了这条消息。前 SEC 首席工作人员、现任 Better Markets 的阿曼达·费舍尔（Amanda Fischer）形容这是一种&#34;或多或少是在提供暗杀的代理市场。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Others pointed to what they said was an inconsistency in Kalshi's position. The platform had previously run a &#34;Who will be at Trump's inauguration?&#34; market that included Jimmy Carter as an option. After Carter died in late December 2024 at the age of 100, Kalshi settled that contract to &#34;No,&#34; effectively resolving a market based on someone's death. &#34;You settle on death, just not when it makes you money,&#34; one widely shared post on X argued, contrasting that outcome with the Khamenei death carveout.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他人指出他们认为 Kalshi 立场的不一致。该平台之前运行过一个&#34;谁将出席特朗普的就职典礼？&#34;的市场，其中包括吉米·卡特作为选项。在卡特于 2024 年 12 月底去世时，Kalshi 将该合约结算为&#34;否，&#34;有效地解决了一个基于某人死亡的市场。&#34;你们在死亡时结算，只是当这对你们有利时不结算，&#34;一条在 X 上广泛分享的帖子如此辩称，将这一结果与哈梅内伊的死亡例外进行了对比。</p>
</div><p>Mansour argued the Khamenei market served legitimate purposes, citing geopolitical, economic, and national security implications of Iranian leadership changes. He pointed to Venezuela's recent power transition as evidence that autocratic leaders can leave power without dying.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>曼苏尔辩称，哈梅内伊市场具有合法目的，引用了伊朗领导层变动的地缘政治、经济和国家安全影响。他指出委内瑞拉最近的权力过渡作为证据，表明独裁领导人可以在不死亡的情况下离开权力。</p>
</div><p>The controversy arrived at a charged moment for the industry. Days earlier, six Democratic senators led by Adam Schiff sent a letter to CFTC Chairman Michael Selig urging the agency to ban contracts that resolve on or correlate to an individual's death, citing controversial Polymarket contracts tied to Venezuela and Ukraine.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一争议在行业的紧张时刻出现。几天前，由亚当·希夫（Adam Schiff）领导的六位民主党参议员向 CFTC 主席迈克尔·塞利格（Michael Selig）发出信函，敦促该机构禁止与个人死亡相关的合约，引用了与委内瑞拉和乌克兰相关的有争议的 Polymarket 合约。</p>
</div><p>The Coalition for Prediction Markets, an industry group that includes Kalshi, responded that &#34;contracts involving death have no place on American exchanges&#34; and that regulated platforms already prohibit them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>包括 Kalshi 在内的预测市场行业团体&#34;预测市场联盟&#34;回应称，&#34;涉及死亡的合约在美国交易所没有立足之地，&#34;并且受监管的平台已经禁止这些合约。</p>
</div><p>Kalshi has positioned itself as the compliance-forward player in a prediction market industry that generated over $44 billion in combined volume last year, as The Block previously reported. The senators' letter set a March 9 deadline for the CFTC to respond.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Kalshi 已将自己定位为一个合规优先的参与者，在去年产生超过 440 亿美元交易量的预测市场行业中，正如 The Block 之前报道的那样。参议员的信函设定了 CFTC 在 3 月 9 日之前作出回应的截止日期。</p>
</div><p>Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>免责声明：The Block 是一个独立的媒体机构，提供新闻、研究和数据。截至 2023 年 11 月，Foresight Ventures 是 The Block 的主要投资者。Foresight Ventures 还投资于其他加密领域的公司。加密交易所 Bitget 是 Foresight Ventures 的主要有限合伙人。The Block 继续独立运营，以提供关于加密行业的客观、影响深远和及时的信息。以下是我们当前的财务披露。</p>
</div><p>© 2026 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>© 2026 The Block。版权所有。本文仅供信息参考。并不提供或意图作为法律、税务、投资、金融或其他建议。</p>
</div>

Kalshi 首席执行官在遭遇反对后为哈梅内伊市场设计进行辩护，并表示平台将退还所有费用