<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/3tW9Oqfgn7YRIZugeR8OnA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD04Mjg-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/4efe960b38351285c25cc86533446f35?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/3tW9Oqfgn7YRIZugeR8OnA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD04Mjg-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/4efe960b38351285c25cc86533446f35"/></p>
<p>油价飙升，股市下跌，因为美国和以色列军队在周末开始对伊朗进行打击。</p>
<p>周一，油价在美国 - 以色列对伊朗的打击后飙升，亚洲股市下跌，投资者因担心中东的长期冲突而纷纷撤离。</p>
<p>布伦特原油价格在对伊朗的攻击后短暂飙升近 14%，西德克萨斯中质油价格几乎上涨 12%，此次攻击导致最高领导人阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊及其他高级官员遇难。</p>
<p>轰炸还导致霍尔木兹海峡——全球约 20% 的海上石油通过的关键水道——实际上关闭，几艘船只遭到攻击，进一步加剧了供应担忧。</p>
<p>亚洲股市普遍下跌，东京、香港、新加坡、惠灵顿和台北均大幅下挫。美国期货下跌超过 1%。</p>
<p>然而，能源公司股价上涨，澳大利亚的伍兹德能源上涨超过 5%，圣托斯上涨 9%，而中国石油在香港上涨近 4%。日本的印尼石油上涨超过 10%。</p>
<p>黄金——在动荡时期的主要避险资产——上涨了 2%。</p>
<p>尽管打击加剧了地缘政治担忧，但交易员们逐渐减少了最初的押注，原油价格上涨约 5%，股市则缩减了损失。</p>
<p>布伦特原油作为国际基准，因特朗普可能下令攻击而在上周已经上涨，因为旨在遏制伊朗核计划的谈判陷入停滞。</p>
<p>&#34;如果油价持续上涨，将增加更顽固的整体通胀风险，并可能减缓通胀数据改善的速度，&#34; Saxo Markets 的 Charu Chanana 写道。</p>
<p>&#34;这并不自动意味着政策收紧，但可能使美联储在快速降息时更加谨慎，因为能源驱动的通胀可能会随着时间的推移渗透到预期和更广泛的定价行为中。&#34;</p>
<p>美国总统呼吁伊朗人民反抗他们的政府，并表示战争可能持续&#34;四周&#34;。</p>
<p>阿联酋外交部表示，伊朗在海湾的报复性导弹和无人机攻击造成四人死亡，数十人受伤。</p>
<p>虽然伊朗尚未正式关闭霍尔木兹海峡，但其革命卫队已警告不要通过该水道。</p>
<p>- 特朗普的 “阿基琉斯之踵” -</p>
<p>周日，至少有两艘船只被击中，一艘在阿曼海岸附近，另一艘在阿联酋附近，英国海事安全机构 UKMTO 表示。</p>
<p>伊朗国家电视台表示，一艘油轮被击中并在试图&#34;非法&#34;通过海峡后沉没。</p>
<p>在这种情况下，保险费用变得高昂，Kpler 分析师中东和 OPEC+ 研究负责人 Amena Bakr 表示，预计价格可能达到 90 美元。</p>
<p>主要航运公司已经确认暂停其船队沿该路线的通行。</p>
<p>&#34;虽然可以使用一些替代基础设施绕过霍尔木兹海峡，但其关闭的净影响将是每天损失 800 万到 1000 万桶的原油供应，&#34; Rystad Energy 的分析师 Jorge Leon 在周六的一份报告中表示。</p>
<p>理论上，进口石油的国家有储备，OECD 成员国被要求维持 90 天的库存，但价格超过 100 美元是不能排除的。</p>
<p>如果霍尔木兹海峡的封锁持续下去，&#34;无论战略储备中有多少备用能力，都无法填补这个缺口。这个缺口实在太大了，&#34; Bakr 说。</p>
<p>Kpler 的另一位分析师 Michelle Brouhard 将高油价形容为&#34;特朗普的阿基琉斯之踵&#34;。</p>
<p>在她看来，伊朗可能会试图保持原油价格高企，以迫使特朗普退让，因为他向选民承诺低价格，而美国正准备在今年年底进行中期选举。</p>
<p>周一，天然气价格也飙升——这对全球经济又是一次打击——因为卡塔尔是液化天然气的主要出口国，增加了通胀风险。</p>
<p>上一次原油价格超过 100 美元是在乌克兰战争开始时。天然气价格也飙升，这在很大程度上导致了价格的持续上涨。</p>
<p>能源价格上涨、运输成本增加和航空运输收入损失可能对增长产生&#34;有害影响&#34;，巴黎 IESEG 管理学院的经济学家 Eric Dor 表示。</p>
<p>&#34;如果只是三天的问题，那就不严重。但如果持续时间更长，那么将会产生额外的衰退效应，&#34;他对法新社表示。</p>
<p>- 关键数据在 0200 GMT 左右 -</p>
<p>西德克萨斯中质油：上涨 4.2%，至每桶 69.84 美元</p>
<p>布伦特北海原油：上涨 4.7%，至每桶 76.32 美元</p>
<p>东京 - 日经 225 指数：下跌 1.4%，至 58001.38</p>
<p>香港 - 恒生指数：下跌 1.9%，至 26130.70</p>
<p>上海 - 综合指数：上涨 0.3%，至 4173.75</p>
<p>欧元/美元：下跌至 1.1790 美元，较周五的 1.1823 美元下降</p>
<p>英镑/美元：下跌至 1.3447 美元，较 1.3486 美元下降</p>
<p>美元/日元：上涨至 156.26 日元，较 156.03 日元上涨</p>
<p>欧元/英镑：下跌至 87.65 便士，较 87.67 便士下降</p>
<p>纽约 - 道琼斯指数：下跌 1.1%，至 48977.92（收盘）</p>
<p>伦敦 - 富时 100 指数：上涨 0.6%，至 10910.55（收盘）</p>
<p>bur-stu-dan/lb</p>

中国海洋石油

德银大宗商品 ETF - PowerShares

美国石油设备与服务 ETF - iShares

<p>油价飙升近 14%，而亚洲股市因美以对伊朗的空袭而下跌，此次空袭导致关键官员遇害，并加剧了地缘政治紧张局势。霍尔木兹海峡作为重要的石油通道，面临干扰，导致人们对供应短缺的担忧。尽管能源公司获利，但股市却出现下滑。分析师警告称，持续高企的油价可能会影响通货膨胀和经济增长，如果局势升级，油价可能超过每桶 100 美元。美国总统暗示冲突将持续，进一步复杂化了经济前景</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/3tW9Oqfgn7YRIZugeR8OnA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD04Mjg-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/4efe960b38351285c25cc86533446f35" alt="" original-src="https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/3tW9Oqfgn7YRIZugeR8OnA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD04Mjg-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/4efe960b38351285c25cc86533446f35"/></p>
<p>Oil prices surged and stocks sank after US and Israeli forces began striking Iran at the weekend (-)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油价飙升，股市下跌，因为美国和以色列军队在周末开始对伊朗进行打击。</p>
</div><p>Oil prices soared and stocks fell in Asia on Monday after US-Israeli strikes on Iran sent investors fleeing the prospect of an extended conflict in the crude-rich Middle East.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周一，油价在美国 - 以色列对伊朗的打击后飙升，亚洲股市下跌，投资者因担心中东的长期冲突而纷纷撤离。</p>
</div><p>Brent briefly spiked almost 14 percent and West Texas Intermediate nearly 12 percent at the start of business after the attack on the Islamic Republic, which killed supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior officials.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布伦特原油价格在对伊朗的攻击后短暂飙升近 14%，西德克萨斯中质油价格几乎上涨 12%，此次攻击导致最高领导人阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊及其他高级官员遇难。</p>
</div><p>The bombings have also seen the vital Strait of Hormuz -- through which around 20 percent of global seaborne oil passes -- effectively shut and several ships attacked, fanning supply fears.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>轰炸还导致霍尔木兹海峡——全球约 20% 的海上石油通过的关键水道——实际上关闭，几艘船只遭到攻击，进一步加剧了供应担忧。</p>
</div><p>Equity markets across Asia sank, with Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore, Wellington and Taipei all deep in the red. US futures were down more than one percent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚洲股市普遍下跌，东京、香港、新加坡、惠灵顿和台北均大幅下挫。美国期货下跌超过 1%。</p>
</div><p>However, energy firms rallied, with Australia's Woodside Energy jumping more than five percent and Santos climbing nine percent, while PetroChina added almost four percent in Hong Kong. Inpex in Japan was up more than 10 percent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，能源公司股价上涨，澳大利亚的伍兹德能源上涨超过 5%，圣托斯上涨 9%，而中国石油在香港上涨近 4%。日本的印尼石油上涨超过 10%。</p>
</div><p>Gold -- a key go-to safe haven in times of turmoil -- climbed two percent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金——在动荡时期的主要避险资产——上涨了 2%。</p>
</div><p>While the strikes have ramped up geopolitical worries, traders wound down their initial bets, with crude sitting around five percent higher and stock markets paring losses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管打击加剧了地缘政治担忧，但交易员们逐渐减少了最初的押注，原油价格上涨约 5%，股市则缩减了损失。</p>
</div><p>Brent, the international benchmark for crude, had already rallied last week on growing concerns Trump would order an attack as talks aimed at curtailing Iran's nuclear programme stuttered.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布伦特原油作为国际基准，因特朗普可能下令攻击而在上周已经上涨，因为旨在遏制伊朗核计划的谈判陷入停滞。</p>
</div><p>&#34;If higher oil prices persist, it raises the risk of stickier headline inflation and can slow the pace at which inflation prints improve,&#34; wrote Saxo Markets' Charu Chanana.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;如果油价持续上涨，将增加更顽固的整体通胀风险，并可能减缓通胀数据改善的速度，&#34; Saxo Markets 的 Charu Chanana 写道。</p>
</div><p>&#34;That does not automatically mean policy tightening, but it can make the Fed more cautious about cutting quickly, because energy-driven inflation can spill into expectations and broader pricing behaviour over time.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;这并不自动意味着政策收紧，但可能使美联储在快速降息时更加谨慎，因为能源驱动的通胀可能会随着时间的推移渗透到预期和更广泛的定价行为中。&#34;</p>
</div><p>The US president has called on Iranians to rise up against their government and said the war could last &#34;four weeks&#34;.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国总统呼吁伊朗人民反抗他们的政府，并表示战争可能持续&#34;四周&#34;。</p>
</div><p>Iran's retaliatory missile and drone campaign in the Gulf killed four people and wounded dozens more, the UAE foreign ministry said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿联酋外交部表示，伊朗在海湾的报复性导弹和无人机攻击造成四人死亡，数十人受伤。</p>
</div><p>While Iran has not officially closed the Strait of Hormuz, its Revolutionary Guards have warned against transiting the waterway.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然伊朗尚未正式关闭霍尔木兹海峡，但其革命卫队已警告不要通过该水道。</p>
</div><p>- Trump's 'Achilles heel' -</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>- 特朗普的 “阿基琉斯之踵” -</p>
</div><p>On Sunday, at least two ships were struck, one off Oman's coast and another off the UAE's, British maritime security agency UKMTO said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周日，至少有两艘船只被击中，一艘在阿曼海岸附近，另一艘在阿联酋附近，英国海事安全机构 UKMTO 表示。</p>
</div><p>Iranian state television said an oil tanker was struck and was sinking after trying to &#34;illegally&#34; pass through the strait.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗国家电视台表示，一艘油轮被击中并在试图&#34;非法&#34;通过海峡后沉没。</p>
</div><p>In such a situation, insurance costs become prohibitive, said Amena Bakr, head of Middle East and OPEC+ research at analysts Kpler, predicting that the price could hit $90.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种情况下，保险费用变得高昂，Kpler 分析师中东和 OPEC+ 研究负责人 Amena Bakr 表示，预计价格可能达到 90 美元。</p>
</div><p>The main shipping companies have already confirmed that they are suspending the passage of their fleets along the route.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>主要航运公司已经确认暂停其船队沿该路线的通行。</p>
</div><p>&#34;While some alternate infrastructure could be used to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, the net impact from its closure would be a loss of eight to 10 million bpd (barrels per day) of crude oil supply,&#34; said Jorge Leon, an analyst with Rystad Energy, in a note on Saturday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;虽然可以使用一些替代基础设施绕过霍尔木兹海峡，但其关闭的净影响将是每天损失 800 万到 1000 万桶的原油供应，&#34; Rystad Energy 的分析师 Jorge Leon 在周六的一份报告中表示。</p>
</div><p>In theory, oil-importing countries have reserves, with OECD members required to maintain 90 days' worth of stocks, but prices above $100 cannot be ruled out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>理论上，进口石油的国家有储备，OECD 成员国被要求维持 90 天的库存，但价格超过 100 美元是不能排除的。</p>
</div><p>If the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues, &#34;no matter how much spare capacity (in the strategic reserves) is not going to fill that gap. That gap is just too big&#34;, said Bakr.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果霍尔木兹海峡的封锁持续下去，&#34;无论战略储备中有多少备用能力，都无法填补这个缺口。这个缺口实在太大了，&#34; Bakr 说。</p>
</div><p>Another analyst at Kpler, Michelle Brouhard, described high oil prices as &#34;the Achilles heel of Trump&#34;.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Kpler 的另一位分析师 Michelle Brouhard 将高油价形容为&#34;特朗普的阿基琉斯之踵&#34;。</p>
</div><p>In her view, Iran is likely to look to keep crude prices high to force Trump to back down, as he promised his electorate low prices, at a time when the United States is already gearing up for mid-term elections at the end of this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在她看来，伊朗可能会试图保持原油价格高企，以迫使特朗普退让，因为他向选民承诺低价格，而美国正准备在今年年底进行中期选举。</p>
</div><p>Gas prices also soared Monday -- dealing another blow to the world economy -- as Qatar is a key exporter of liquefied natural gas, heightening inflationary risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周一，天然气价格也飙升——这对全球经济又是一次打击——因为卡塔尔是液化天然气的主要出口国，增加了通胀风险。</p>
</div><p>The last time crude prices climbed above $100 was at the start of the war in Ukraine. Gas also soared, which played a major role in a prolonged period of rising prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上一次原油价格超过 100 美元是在乌克兰战争开始时。天然气价格也飙升，这在很大程度上导致了价格的持续上涨。</p>
</div><p>Rising energy prices, increased shipping costs and loss of revenue for air transport could have &#34;a harmful effect on growth&#34;, said economist Eric Dor, from the IESEG School of Management in Paris.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>能源价格上涨、运输成本增加和航空运输收入损失可能对增长产生&#34;有害影响&#34;，巴黎 IESEG 管理学院的经济学家 Eric Dor 表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;If it's a matter of three days, it's not serious. But if it's over a longer period, then it will have an additional recessionary effect,&#34; he told AFP.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;如果只是三天的问题，那就不严重。但如果持续时间更长，那么将会产生额外的衰退效应，&#34;他对法新社表示。</p>
</div><p>- Key figures at around 0200 GMT -</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>- 关键数据在 0200 GMT 左右 -</p>
</div><p>West Texas Intermediate: UP 4.2 percent at $69.84 per barrel</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>西德克萨斯中质油：上涨 4.2%，至每桶 69.84 美元</p>
</div><p>Brent North Sea Crude: UP 4.7 percent at $76.32 per barrel</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布伦特北海原油：上涨 4.7%，至每桶 76.32 美元</p>
</div><p>Tokyo - Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.4 percent at 58,001.38</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>东京 - 日经 225 指数：下跌 1.4%，至 58001.38</p>
</div><p>Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: DOWN 1.9 percent at 26,130.70</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>香港 - 恒生指数：下跌 1.9%，至 26130.70</p>
</div><p>Shanghai - Composite: UP 0.3 percent at 4,173.75</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上海 - 综合指数：上涨 0.3%，至 4173.75</p>
</div><p>Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1790 from $1.1823 on Friday</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧元/美元：下跌至 1.1790 美元，较周五的 1.1823 美元下降</p>
</div><p>Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3447 from $1.3486</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英镑/美元：下跌至 1.3447 美元，较 1.3486 美元下降</p>
</div><p>Dollar/yen: UP at 156.26 yen from 156.03 yen</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元/日元：上涨至 156.26 日元，较 156.03 日元上涨</p>
</div><p>Euro/pound: DOWN at 87.65 pence from 87.67 pence</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧元/英镑：下跌至 87.65 便士，较 87.67 便士下降</p>
</div><p>New York - Dow: DOWN 1.1 percent at 48,977.92 (close)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>纽约 - 道琼斯指数：下跌 1.1%，至 48977.92（收盘）</p>
</div><p>London - FTSE 100: UP 0.6 percent at 10,910.55 (close)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伦敦 - 富时 100 指数：上涨 0.6%，至 10910.55（收盘）</p>
</div><p>bur-stu-dan/lb</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>bur-stu-dan/lb</p>
</div>

Crude soars, stocks drop after US strikes on Iran

- 油价因美以对伊朗的空袭大幅上涨，亚股普遍下跌。  
- 重要海域霍尔木兹海峡面临关闭，供应忧虑加剧。  
- 高油价可能引发持续通胀，影响美联储政策。

在美国对伊朗进行打击后，原油价格飙升，股市下跌