<p>周一将发布欧元区、英国和美国的制造业 PMI 数据。周二，欧元区将公布 CPI 同比和核心 CPI 同比的初步估计，而在英国，关注的焦点将是年度预算发布。</p>
<p>周三将发布澳大利亚的 GDP 环比数据和瑞士的 CPI 环比数据。在美国，将发布 ADP 非农就业变动和 ISM 服务业 PMI。周四，美国将跟进发布每周失业申请数据。</p>
<p>周五美国将会很忙，发布的内容包括平均小时工资环比、非农就业变动、失业率和零售销售环比数据。</p>
<p>在这一周内，几位 FOMC 成员也预计将发表讲话。</p>
<p>在美国，ISM 制造业 PMI 的共识为 51.7，低于之前的 52.6。上个月制造业数据的改善是由于耐用品订单的广泛复苏、稳健的资本支出和在去年的关税增加后库存的补充。本周的发布预期不那么乐观，尽管该指数仍预计保持在扩张区间。</p>
<p>油价上涨带来了压力，尤其是在伊朗军事行动的背景下。因此，未来制造业调查中的价格支付成分可能仍将保持高位，反映出持续的成本压力，而不是输入通胀的显著缓解。</p>
<p>核心 CPI 同比初步估计的共识为 2.2%，CPI 同比初步估计的共识为 1.7%，与之前的数字持平。</p>
<p>尽管如此，来自富国银行的分析师预计，欧元区的整体 CPI 将放缓至 1.6%，核心通胀将趋于稳定。更强的欧元、疲软的全球需求和工资增长放缓共同导致价格压力减轻。</p>
<p>预计欧洲央行目前将维持利率不变，下一步的举措倾向于降息，特别是在通胀进一步低于预期或经济和信贷条件恶化的情况下。</p>
<p>在澳大利亚，GDP 环比的共识为 0.7%，而之前为 0.4%。预计澳大利亚经济在第三季度疲软后将有所改善，尽管反弹可能没有一些人预期的那么强劲。</p>
<p>西太平洋银行的分析师指出，预计第四季度的表现超出预期主要是由消费者驱动的，家庭支出在收入改善的背景下加速增长。还有迹象表明商业活动和建筑业趋于稳健。</p>
<p>“趋势性” 季度增长的一个关键含义是，经济可能接近其长期潜力。这降低了经济急剧放缓的风险，但使通胀辩论仍然受到关注。</p>
<p>西太平洋银行强调，名义单位劳动成本仍在以约 1.2% 的速度环比上升。随着生产率增长约为 1.0% 的同比，这一动态可能使澳大利亚储备银行对上行通胀风险保持警惕。</p>
<p>从货币政策的角度来看，预计澳大利亚储备银行将在 5 月的会议上加息，反映出通胀仍然顽固。然而，如果第四季度的增长令人失望，可能会降低今年晚些时候进一步加息的可能性。</p>
<p>在美国，ISM 服务业 PMI 的共识为 53.5，略低于之前的 53.8。与制造业相比，服务业的前景相对更为积极，继续反映出企业活动的韧性，即使公司在招聘方面采取了更为谨慎的态度。</p>
<p>平均小时工资环比的共识为 0.3%，而之前为 0.4%。预计非农就业人数将增加 58K，而之前为 130K，失业率预计将保持在 4.3% 不变。</p>
<p>本周的就业报告预计将是温和的。尽管招聘需求已停止恶化，但更广泛的指标如职位空缺数据和消费者对就业机会的看法仍然指向逐渐降温，而不是反弹，富国银行的分析师表示。</p>
<p>预计就业增长将急剧放缓，受天气敏感的行业如建筑和休闲将对整体数据产生影响。由于一月份医疗保健领域的超额增长，也预计会出现一些回落。</p>
<p>失业率预计将保持稳定，尽管风险是双向的。家庭调查的近期强劲表现留有空间，可能导致就业稍微放松，从而使失业率略微上升，而与移民趋势变化相关的人口调整可能会施加一些下行压力。</p>
<p>总体而言，劳动力市场状况似乎平衡，与持续的工资增长相一致，工资增长仍然受到控制，而不是通胀性。</p>
<p>美国零售销售环比的共识为-0.3%，而之前为 0.0%。预计一月份的零售销售将出现温和下降，受到严寒冬季天气、疲软的汽车销售和较低的汽油价格的影响。</p>
<p>然而，潜在需求仍然相对完好，排除汽车的支出显示出更强的势头。展望未来，税收退款和稳定的劳动力市场预计将为可自由支配的消费者支出提供支持，富国银行的分析师表示。</p>

纳斯达克综合指数

道琼斯指数

标普 500 指数

<p>3 月 2 日至 6 日的一周将发布关键经济数据，包括制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）、消费者物价指数（CPI）预估以及各地区的国内生产总值（GDP）数据。在美国，ISM 制造业 PMI 预计将下降至 51.7，而服务业 PMI 预计为 53.5。油价上涨和通胀压力被提及，欧洲央行可能会维持利率不变。澳大利亚预计 GDP 增长为 0.7%，主要受消费者支出的推动。美国的就业报告预计将显示适度的工资增长和 4.3% 的失业率保持稳定。零售销售预计将下降 0.3%</p>

<p>Monday begins with the release of manufacturing PMI data for the Eurozone, the U.K., and the U.S. On Tuesday, the euro area will publish flash estimates for CPI y/y and core CPI y/y, while in the U.K., attention will focus on the annual budget release.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周一将发布欧元区、英国和美国的制造业 PMI 数据。周二，欧元区将公布 CPI 同比和核心 CPI 同比的初步估计，而在英国，关注的焦点将是年度预算发布。</p>
</div><p>Wednesday brings GDP q/q data from Australia and the CPI m/m from Switzerland. In the U.S., the ADP non-farm employment change and the ISM services PMI will be released. On Thursday, the U.S. will follow up with the weekly unemployment claims data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周三将发布澳大利亚的 GDP 环比数据和瑞士的 CPI 环比数据。在美国，将发布 ADP 非农就业变动和 ISM 服务业 PMI。周四，美国将跟进发布每周失业申请数据。</p>
</div><p>Friday will be busy in the U.S., with releases including average hourly earnings m/m, non-farm employment change, the unemployment rate, and the retail sales m/m figures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周五美国将会很忙，发布的内容包括平均小时工资环比、非农就业变动、失业率和零售销售环比数据。</p>
</div><p>Throughout the week, several FOMC members are also expected to deliver their remarks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这一周内，几位 FOMC 成员也预计将发表讲话。</p>
</div><p>In the U.S., the consensus for the ISM manufacturing PMI is 51.7, down from 52.6 previously. Last month’s improvement in manufacturing figures was driven by a broadening recovery in durable goods orders, solid capital spending and inventory restocking following last year’s tariff increases. For this week’s release, expectations are less optimistic, though the index is still projected to remain in expansionary territory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美国，ISM 制造业 PMI 的共识为 51.7，低于之前的 52.6。上个月制造业数据的改善是由于耐用品订单的广泛复苏、稳健的资本支出和在去年的关税增加后库存的补充。本周的发布预期不那么乐观，尽管该指数仍预计保持在扩张区间。</p>
</div><p>Rising oil prices are adding pressure, particularly amid the Iran military operation. As a result, the prices paid component of upcoming manufacturing surveys is likely to remain elevated, reflecting persistent cost pressures rather than a meaningful easing in input inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油价上涨带来了压力，尤其是在伊朗军事行动的背景下。因此，未来制造业调查中的价格支付成分可能仍将保持高位，反映出持续的成本压力，而不是输入通胀的显著缓解。</p>
</div><p>The consensus for the core CPI flash estimate y/y is 2.2% and for the CPI flash estimate y/y is 1.7%, unchanged from the previous prints.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>核心 CPI 同比初步估计的共识为 2.2%，CPI 同比初步估计的共识为 1.7%，与之前的数字持平。</p>
</div><p>That said, analysts from Wells Fargo expect the euro headline CPI to soften to 1.6% and the core inflation to stabilize. A stronger euro, weak global demand, and easing wage growth contribute to reduced price pressures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，来自富国银行的分析师预计，欧元区的整体 CPI 将放缓至 1.6%，核心通胀将趋于稳定。更强的欧元、疲软的全球需求和工资增长放缓共同导致价格压力减轻。</p>
</div><p>The ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged for now, with the next move tilted towards a cut, especially if inflation undershoots further or growth and credit conditions weaken.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计欧洲央行目前将维持利率不变，下一步的举措倾向于降息，特别是在通胀进一步低于预期或经济和信贷条件恶化的情况下。</p>
</div><p>In Australia, the consensus for GDP q/q is 0.7% versus 0.4% previously. The Australian economy is expected to show improvement after a softer Q3, though the rebound may not be as strong as some anticipate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在澳大利亚，GDP 环比的共识为 0.7%，而之前为 0.4%。预计澳大利亚经济在第三季度疲软后将有所改善，尽管反弹可能没有一些人预期的那么强劲。</p>
</div><p>Westpac analysts note that the expected Q4 outperformance is largely a consumer-driven story, with household spending accelerating on the back of improving incomes. There are also signs of firmer business activity and construction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>西太平洋银行的分析师指出，预计第四季度的表现超出预期主要是由消费者驱动的，家庭支出在收入改善的背景下加速增长。还有迹象表明商业活动和建筑业趋于稳健。</p>
</div><p>A key implication of “trend-like” quarterly growth is that the economy may be operating close to its long-run potential. This reduces the risk of a sharp growth slowdown but keeps the inflation debate in focus.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“趋势性” 季度增长的一个关键含义是，经济可能接近其长期潜力。这降低了经济急剧放缓的风险，但使通胀辩论仍然受到关注。</p>
</div><p>Westpac highlights that nominal unit labour costs are still rising by around 1.2% q/q. With productivity growth running at roughly 1.0% y/y, this dynamic could keep the RBA alert to upside inflation risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>西太平洋银行强调，名义单位劳动成本仍在以约 1.2% 的速度环比上升。随着生产率增长约为 1.0% 的同比，这一动态可能使澳大利亚储备银行对上行通胀风险保持警惕。</p>
</div><p>From a monetary policy perspective, the RBA is expected to deliver a rate hike at its May meeting, reflecting still-sticky inflation. However, if Q4 growth disappoints, it could be enough to reduce the likelihood of further hikes later in the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从货币政策的角度来看，预计澳大利亚储备银行将在 5 月的会议上加息，反映出通胀仍然顽固。然而，如果第四季度的增长令人失望，可能会降低今年晚些时候进一步加息的可能性。</p>
</div><p>In the U.S., the consensus for the ISM services PMI is 53.5, slightly down from 53.8 previously. Compared with manufacturing, the outlook for the services sector is somewhat more positive and continues to reflect resilient business activity, even as companies adopt a more cautious approach to hiring.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美国，ISM 服务业 PMI 的共识为 53.5，略低于之前的 53.8。与制造业相比，服务业的前景相对更为积极，继续反映出企业活动的韧性，即使公司在招聘方面采取了更为谨慎的态度。</p>
</div><p>The consensus for average hourly earnings m/m is 0.3% vs. 0.4% previously. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by 58K, compared with 130K prior, while the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.3%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均小时工资环比的共识为 0.3%，而之前为 0.4%。预计非农就业人数将增加 58K，而之前为 130K，失业率预计将保持在 4.3% 不变。</p>
</div><p>This week’s jobs report is expected to be modest. While hiring demand has stopped deteriorating, broader indicators such as job openings data and consumer perceptions of job availability continue to point to a gradual cooling rather than a rebound, according to Wells Fargo analysts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周的就业报告预计将是温和的。尽管招聘需求已停止恶化，但更广泛的指标如职位空缺数据和消费者对就业机会的看法仍然指向逐渐降温，而不是反弹，富国银行的分析师表示。</p>
</div><p>Payroll growth is seen slowing sharply, with weather-sensitive sectors like construction and leisure weighing on the headline figure. Some pullback is also expected following January’s outsized gains in healthcare.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计就业增长将急剧放缓，受天气敏感的行业如建筑和休闲将对整体数据产生影响。由于一月份医疗保健领域的超额增长，也预计会出现一些回落。</p>
</div><p>The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady, though risks are two-sided. Recent strength in the household survey leaves room for softer employment that could push joblessness slightly higher, while population adjustments tied to changing immigration trends could exert some downward pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>失业率预计将保持稳定，尽管风险是双向的。家庭调查的近期强劲表现留有空间，可能导致就业稍微放松，从而使失业率略微上升，而与移民趋势变化相关的人口调整可能会施加一些下行压力。</p>
</div><p>Overall, labor market conditions appear balanced, consistent with steady wage growth that remains contained rather than inflationary.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体而言，劳动力市场状况似乎平衡，与持续的工资增长相一致，工资增长仍然受到控制，而不是通胀性。</p>
</div><p>The consensus for U.S. retail sales m/m is -0.3% compared with 0.0% previously. The January retail sales are expected to show a modest decline, weighed down by severe winter weather, softer auto sales, and lower gasoline prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国零售销售环比的共识为-0.3%，而之前为 0.0%。预计一月份的零售销售将出现温和下降，受到严寒冬季天气、疲软的汽车销售和较低的汽油价格的影响。</p>
</div><p>However, underlying demand remains relatively intact, with spending excluding autos showing firmer momentum. Looking ahead, tax refunds and a stabilizing labor market are expected to provide support to discretionary consumer spending, Wells Fargo analysts said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，潜在需求仍然相对完好，排除汽车的支出显示出更强的势头。展望未来，税收退款和稳定的劳动力市场预计将为可自由支配的消费者支出提供支持，富国银行的分析师表示。</p>
</div>

Market outlook for the week of 2nd-6th March

- 本周将发布多国经济数据，包括 PMI、CPI 和 GDP 等。  
- 美国预计将发布非农就业变动、失业率等指标，增速放缓。  
- 欧元区 CPI 同比初步估计维持在 1.7%，整体放缓至 1.6%。

3 月 2 日至 6 日这一周的市场前景展望