<p>TradingKey - 在美国和以色列对伊朗的空袭后，投资者密切关注美国市场周一的开盘情况。亚洲和欧洲的早期下跌暗示股市面临压力，但油价的急剧上涨可能为能源行业提供了一线生机。</p>
<h2>油股在盘前上涨</h2>
<p>在全球普遍抛售的背景下，上游和综合性石油公司作为少数赢家脱颖而出。在美国盘前交易中，能源股普遍上涨——西方石油公司（OXY）上涨 6%，埃克森美孚（XOM）上涨 5%，雪佛龙（CVX）上涨 4%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260302/oil-stocks_optimized_150_1_optimized_150-0c2ab7f8aedb4f38a96f05105f341f8b.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260302/oil-stocks_optimized_150_1_optimized_150-0c2ab7f8aedb4f38a96f05105f341f8b.png"/></p>
<p>此次反弹直接源于油价飙升。在空袭后，布伦特原油价格几乎上涨了 14%，从刚刚超过 70 美元飙升至超过 80 美元每桶，而 WTI 上涨了近 12%。分析师警告，如果霍尔木兹海峡的航运持续受到干扰，油价达到 90 至 100 美元每桶的情景将不再被视为低概率事件。</p>
<p>对于上游生产商和综合性大型企业而言，短期内生产基本固定——因此每上涨 10 美元的原油价格都会带来不成比例的利润激增。由于此次上涨是由风险溢价驱动，市场现在将 “持续高位价格” 的假设嵌入到未来收益模型中，从而提升了整个能源行业的估值基线。</p>
<h2><strong>国防股票可能受益</strong></h2>
<p>随着周期性股票和指数下跌，国防类股票找到了新的动力。自去年对伊朗的首次空袭以来，iShares 美国航空航天与国防 ETF（ITA）上涨了约 35%，而洛克希德·马丁公司（LMT）和诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司（NOC）的股票分别上涨了约 40% 和 46%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260302/defense-stocks_optimized_150-bc9549607320448aba16d48fef8155ca.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260302/defense-stocks_optimized_150-bc9549607320448aba16d48fef8155ca.png"/></p>
<p>不断升级的战争风险使立法机构——从美国国会到盟国议会——有了一个明确的理由来增加国防预算。对导弹防御、无人机、电子战、情报和监视以及太空资产保护的支出似乎将会增加。安全避风港的需求和订单管道的乐观情绪吸引投资者关注国防股票，作为对地缘政治冲击的自然对冲，许多人押注未来三到五年内资金将持续增长。</p>
<p>尽管如此，在经历了由于俄乌战争驱动的重新定价后，西方国防股票不再被深度低估。中东的再次动荡在已经高估的估值上增加了另一层风险溢价——虽然现在支撑价格，但可能会放大未来的任何修正。</p>
<h2><strong>航空公司成为冲突的受害者</strong></h2>
<p>相比之下，商业航空在这一轮中东紧张局势中成为了明显的输家。数据显示，四大美国航空公司——达美航空（DAL）、联合航空（UAL）、美国航空集团（AAL）和西南航空（LUV）——在盘前交易中均出现下跌。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260302/airline-stocks_optimized_150_1_optimized_150-087578c38f1e4c6e8486b22b9c4c4768.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260302/airline-stocks_optimized_150_1_optimized_150-087578c38f1e4c6e8486b22b9c4c4768.png"/></p>
<p>中东是全球航线的重要中转枢纽。在空袭和随后的伊朗导弹报复后，油价飙升，整个地区的空域连续几天关闭。迪拜和多哈等主要枢纽暂停运营，导致大规模航班取消。</p>
<p>航空公司现在面临双重打击。直接损失来自于取消航班和退款，而间接损失则源于改道——更高的燃油消耗、机组费用和减少的飞机利用率。当这种压力持续数天或数周时，影响会迅速加剧。</p>
<h2><strong>海运面临类似压力</strong></h2>
<p>霍尔木兹海峡是世界上最重要的海上交通要道之一，连接波斯湾、阿曼湾和阿拉伯海，是中东石油出口的重要通道。伊朗作为主要生产国，直接位于这一通道上。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260302/Hormuz-8b65a17fc9b2446098309b6d8d73a55f.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260302/Hormuz-8b65a17fc9b2446098309b6d8d73a55f.png"/></p>
<p>周日，彭博社报道，经过霍尔木兹海峡的油气运输几乎已停滞。伊斯兰革命卫队警告商业船只该水道不安全。RBC 资本市场的分析师指出，革命卫队 “仍可能部署小型船只、地雷、无人机和导弹来阻止航运，直到敌对行动结束”，迫使保险公司和运营商避开该航道。</p>
<p>财务影响远不止于停止的货物运输。航运运营商面临着随着油价上涨而飙升的燃料成本。除非运费同步上涨，否则利润率将会缩小。进入或离开霍尔木兹走廊的船只面临急剧上升的战争风险溢价和保险附加费。此外，持续干扰的可能性正在削弱全球贸易情绪，给货运市场和更广泛的需求前景带来压力。</p>
<p>了解更多</p>

美国 WTI 原油 ETF

油气开采 ETF - SPDR

西方石油

美国油气勘探与生产 ETF - iShares

美国布伦特原油期货基金

能源业 ETF - Vanguard

标普全球能源股指数 ETF - iShares

油气服务 ETF - Market Vectors

埃克森美孚

能源业 ETF - SPDR

<p>在美国和以色列对伊朗进行空袭后，全球市场承压，亚洲和欧洲早盘出现下跌。然而，石油和国防股票表现良好。油价飙升，布伦特原油上涨近 14%，使得像西方石油和埃克森美孚这样的能源公司受益。国防股票也因军事开支增加而获得动力，尤其是在紧张局势升级的背景下。相反，航空公司因航班取消和运营成本增加而遭受损失。霍尔木兹海峡面临航运中断，影响海上运输并提高了航运运营商的成本</p>

<p>TradingKey - Following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran, investors are watching closely to see how U.S. markets will open on Monday. Early declines in Asia and Europe suggest pressure on equities, yet the sharp surge in oil prices could offer a lifeline for the energy sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingKey - 在美国和以色列对伊朗的空袭后，投资者密切关注美国市场周一的开盘情况。亚洲和欧洲的早期下跌暗示股市面临压力，但油价的急剧上涨可能为能源行业提供了一线生机。</p>
</div><h2>Oil Stocks Rise in Premarket</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>油股在盘前上涨</h2>
</div><p>Against a backdrop of broad global sell‑offs, upstream and integrated oil companies are standing out as rare gainers. In U.S. pre‑market trading, energy shares climbed across the board — Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY) rose 6%, Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) gained 5%, and Chevron Corp. (CVX) advanced 4%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在全球普遍抛售的背景下，上游和综合性石油公司作为少数赢家脱颖而出。在美国盘前交易中，能源股普遍上涨——西方石油公司（OXY）上涨 6%，埃克森美孚（XOM）上涨 5%，雪佛龙（CVX）上涨 4%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260302/oil-stocks_optimized_150_1_optimized_150-0c2ab7f8aedb4f38a96f05105f341f8b.png" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260302/oil-stocks_optimized_150_1_optimized_150-0c2ab7f8aedb4f38a96f05105f341f8b.png"/></p>
<p>The rally stemmed directly from the oil spike. After the strikes, Brent crude surged nearly 14%, from just above US $70 to over US $80 per barrel, while WTI climbed almost 12%. Analysts warn that if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, prices reaching US $90 to $100 per barrel can no longer be dismissed as a low‑probability scenario.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此次反弹直接源于油价飙升。在空袭后，布伦特原油价格几乎上涨了 14%，从刚刚超过 70 美元飙升至超过 80 美元每桶，而 WTI 上涨了近 12%。分析师警告，如果霍尔木兹海峡的航运持续受到干扰，油价达到 90 至 100 美元每桶的情景将不再被视为低概率事件。</p>
</div><p>For upstream producers and integrated majors, production is largely fixed in the short term — so every US $10 increase in crude translates into a disproportionate profit surge. Because this rise is driven by a risk premium, markets are now embedding assumptions of “persistently elevated prices” into forward earnings models, lifting valuation baselines across the energy sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于上游生产商和综合性大型企业而言，短期内生产基本固定——因此每上涨 10 美元的原油价格都会带来不成比例的利润激增。由于此次上涨是由风险溢价驱动，市场现在将 “持续高位价格” 的假设嵌入到未来收益模型中，从而提升了整个能源行业的估值基线。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Defense Stocks May Benefit</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>国防股票可能受益</strong></h2>
</div><p>As cyclicals and indices slump, defense names are finding fresh momentum. The iShares U.S. Aerospace &amp; Defense ETF (ITA) has gained roughly 35% since the first wave of strikes on Iran last year, while Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT) and Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC) shares are up about 40% and 46%, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着周期性股票和指数下跌，国防类股票找到了新的动力。自去年对伊朗的首次空袭以来，iShares 美国航空航天与国防 ETF（ITA）上涨了约 35%，而洛克希德·马丁公司（LMT）和诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司（NOC）的股票分别上涨了约 40% 和 46%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260302/defense-stocks_optimized_150-bc9549607320448aba16d48fef8155ca.png" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260302/defense-stocks_optimized_150-bc9549607320448aba16d48fef8155ca.png"/></p>
<p>Escalating war risk gives legislatures — from the U.S. Congress to allied parliaments — a straightforward argument for larger defense budgets. Spending on missile defense, drones, electronic warfare, intelligence and surveillance, and space‑asset protection appears set to climb. The mix of safe‑haven demand and order‑pipeline optimism is drawing investors toward defense stocks as natural hedges against geopolitical shocks, with many betting on sustained funding growth over the next three to five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不断升级的战争风险使立法机构——从美国国会到盟国议会——有了一个明确的理由来增加国防预算。对导弹防御、无人机、电子战、情报和监视以及太空资产保护的支出似乎将会增加。安全避风港的需求和订单管道的乐观情绪吸引投资者关注国防股票，作为对地缘政治冲击的自然对冲，许多人押注未来三到五年内资金将持续增长。</p>
</div><p>That said, after years of rerating driven by the Russia–Ukraine war, Western defense equities are no longer deeply undervalued. Renewed turmoil in the Middle East adds another layer of risk premium atop already rich valuations — supporting prices now but potentially magnifying any future corrections.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，在经历了由于俄乌战争驱动的重新定价后，西方国防股票不再被深度低估。中东的再次动荡在已经高估的估值上增加了另一层风险溢价——虽然现在支撑价格，但可能会放大未来的任何修正。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Airlines Become the Conflict’s Casualties</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>航空公司成为冲突的受害者</strong></h2>
</div><p>Commercial aviation, by contrast, has become a clear loser in this round of Middle East tensions. Data show that the four major U.S. carriers — Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL), United Airlines Holdings Inc. (UAL), American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL), and Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) — all fell in pre‑market trading.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相比之下，商业航空在这一轮中东紧张局势中成为了明显的输家。数据显示，四大美国航空公司——达美航空（DAL）、联合航空（UAL）、美国航空集团（AAL）和西南航空（LUV）——在盘前交易中均出现下跌。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260302/airline-stocks_optimized_150_1_optimized_150-087578c38f1e4c6e8486b22b9c4c4768.png" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260302/airline-stocks_optimized_150_1_optimized_150-087578c38f1e4c6e8486b22b9c4c4768.png"/></p>
<p>The Middle East is a critical transit hub for global routes. After the strikes and subsequent Iranian missile retaliation, oil prices spiked and airspace across the region closed for consecutive days. Major hubs such as Dubai and Doha halted operations, forcing widespread flight cancellations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中东是全球航线的重要中转枢纽。在空袭和随后的伊朗导弹报复后，油价飙升，整个地区的空域连续几天关闭。迪拜和多哈等主要枢纽暂停运营，导致大规模航班取消。</p>
</div><p>Airlines now face a double blow. Direct losses stem from scrapped flights and refunds, while indirect losses arise from rerouting — higher fuel consumption, crew expenses, and reduced aircraft utilization. These pressures compound quickly when sustained for days or weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>航空公司现在面临双重打击。直接损失来自于取消航班和退款，而间接损失则源于改道——更高的燃油消耗、机组费用和减少的飞机利用率。当这种压力持续数天或数周时，影响会迅速加剧。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Maritime Transport Faces Parallel Pressures</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>海运面临类似压力</strong></h2>
</div><p>The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints, linking the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea and serving as a vital artery for Middle Eastern oil exports. Iran, itself a major producer, sits directly on the passage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>霍尔木兹海峡是世界上最重要的海上交通要道之一，连接波斯湾、阿曼湾和阿拉伯海，是中东石油出口的重要通道。伊朗作为主要生产国，直接位于这一通道上。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260302/Hormuz-8b65a17fc9b2446098309b6d8d73a55f.png" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260302/Hormuz-8b65a17fc9b2446098309b6d8d73a55f.png"/></p>
<p>On Sunday, Bloomberg reported that oil and gas shipments through the Strait had largely ground to a halt. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned commercial vessels that the waterway was unsafe. Analysts at RBC Capital Markets noted that the Guard “could still deploy small boats, mines, drones, and missiles to deter shipping until hostilities end,” forcing insurers and operators to steer clear of the route.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周日，彭博社报道，经过霍尔木兹海峡的油气运输几乎已停滞。伊斯兰革命卫队警告商业船只该水道不安全。RBC 资本市场的分析师指出，革命卫队 “仍可能部署小型船只、地雷、无人机和导弹来阻止航运，直到敌对行动结束”，迫使保险公司和运营商避开该航道。</p>
</div><p>The financial impact extends well beyond halted cargoes. Shipping operators are contending with soaring fuel costs as oil rises. Unless freight rates climb in tandem, profit margins will shrink. Vessels entering or leaving the Hormuz corridor face sharply higher war‑risk premiums and insurance surcharges. Added to that, the possibility of prolonged disruption is undermining global‑trade sentiment, pressuring both freight markets and broader demand outlooks</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>财务影响远不止于停止的货物运输。航运运营商面临着随着油价上涨而飙升的燃料成本。除非运费同步上涨，否则利润率将会缩小。进入或离开霍尔木兹走廊的船只面临急剧上升的战争风险溢价和保险附加费。此外，持续干扰的可能性正在削弱全球贸易情绪，给货运市场和更广泛的需求前景带来压力。</p>
</div><p>Find out more</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>了解更多</p>
</div>

Markets Sell Off amid Iran Tensions — But Oil and Defense Stocks Hold Up

- 美国和以色列对伊朗的空袭后，投资者关注市场反应。  
- 能源股因油价上涨而逆势上涨，西方防务股也受益。  
- 航空公司遭受冲突影响，面临大规模航班 cancellations。

市场因伊朗紧张局势而出现抛售，但石油和国防类股票依然坚挺