<p>（作者是路透社 Breakingviews 专栏作家。所表达的观点仅代表作者本人。）</p>
<p>作者：陈家胜</p>
<p>香港，3 月 3 日（路透社 Breakingviews）——习近平正处于一个棘手的境地。中国国家主席为一位刚刚下令发动袭击、导致伊朗领导人遇害的美国同行铺开红地毯，这一幕并不特别吸引人。随着北京的战略伙伴受到攻击，计划于一个月后与唐纳德·特朗普的会晤可能会成为军事攻击的牺牲品。</p>
<p>两大经济体之间脆弱的 5600 亿美元贸易休战岌岌可危。特朗普的 “解放日” 和习近平的强烈报复在四月震动了全球投资者。在双方降温后，市场恢复了平静，并在十月达成协议，暂停互征关税和出口管制，为谈判停火和中国股市的上涨增添了期待。</p>
<p>最新的军事侵略改变了外交动态，打破了平静。香港恒生指数（.HSI）作为海外对中国情绪的代理，较一年前的低点反弹超过 30%。在周末传出伊朗最高领导人阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊及其他高级官员成为致命美以袭击目标的消息后，该指数周一下跌近 2%。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，与中国的关系达到了 “非常好的平衡”，特朗普和习近平今年甚至可能面对面会晤多达四次，首场三天的访问定于 3 月 31 日。然而，北京尚未确认此次会晤，考虑到 2017 年对特朗普的盛大接待后不久便爆发了第一次关税战争。华盛顿推翻德黑兰和加拉加斯政权的行动使局势复杂化。两国都是中国的重要石油供应国，同时在人民币国际化和习近平的 “一带一路” 基础设施发展政策中扮演着重要角色。目前，双边关系更可能出现裂痕而非破裂。《南华早报》周二报道称，尽管许可协议是桌面上为数不多的成果之一，工作层官员仍在为潜在峰会铺路。出于象征意义，习近平在展现实力时不愿接待特朗普。此外，伊朗和委内瑞拉的事件表明，中国的外交关系无法保护其伙伴。如果与美国的计划性会晤破裂，长期的紧张局势将会广泛显现。</p>
<h3>背景新闻</h3>
<p>中国官员谴责美国和以色列对伊朗的攻击，外交部长王毅在 3 月 1 日对国营新华社表示，“公然杀害主权领导人” 和煽动政权更迭是 “不可接受的”。</p>
<p>2 月 28 日的军事袭击导致伊朗最高领导人阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊及其他高级官员遇害。</p>
<p>中美紧张关系对市场造成重大压力</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRV-BRV/gkvlkgkrmpb/chart.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1420" height="988" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRV-BRV/gkvlkgkrmpb/chart.png"/></p>
<p>（编辑：杰弗里·戈德法布；制作：乌贾伊尼·达塔）</p>

恒生指数

<p>习近平与唐纳德·特朗普的定期会议可能因近期美国对伊朗的军事打击而取消，这使得外交关系变得复杂。这些打击引发了对美中之间脆弱的 5600 亿美元贸易缓和的担忧，因为两国在伊朗和委内瑞拉的政权更迭问题上面临紧张局势。在袭击发生后，香港恒生指数下跌近 2%，反映出投资者的不安。尽管工作层官员仍在为潜在峰会做准备，但在这些地缘政治紧张局势下，习近平可能会犹豫是否接待特朗普</p>

<p>(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（作者是路透社 Breakingviews 专栏作家。所表达的观点仅代表作者本人。）</p>
</div><p>By Ka Sing Chan</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：陈家胜</p>
</div><p>HONG KONG, March 3 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Xi Jinping is in a tricky position. The optics of China’s president rolling out the red carpet for a U.S. counterpart who just ordered strikes that killed Iran’s leader weeks after authorising the capture of Venezuela’s are not particularly appealing. With Beijing’s strategic partners under siege, a scheduled meeting with Donald Trump in a month will probably be a casualty of the military attacks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>香港，3 月 3 日（路透社 Breakingviews）——习近平正处于一个棘手的境地。中国国家主席为一位刚刚下令发动袭击、导致伊朗领导人遇害的美国同行铺开红地毯，这一幕并不特别吸引人。随着北京的战略伙伴受到攻击，计划于一个月后与唐纳德·特朗普的会晤可能会成为军事攻击的牺牲品。</p>
</div><p>A fragile $560 billion trade détente between the two economic powers hangs in the balance. Trump’s “Liberation Day” and Xi’s fierce retaliation rattled investors worldwide in April. Calm was restored after the two sides de-escalated, and agreed in October to put reciprocal tariffs and export controls on hold for a year, boosting anticipation for a negotiated truce and Chinese stocks in the process.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>两大经济体之间脆弱的 5600 亿美元贸易休战岌岌可危。特朗普的 “解放日” 和习近平的强烈报复在四月震动了全球投资者。在双方降温后，市场恢复了平静，并在十月达成协议，暂停互征关税和出口管制，为谈判停火和中国股市的上涨增添了期待。</p>
</div><p>The latest military aggression alters the diplomatic dynamics and punctures the calm. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (.HSI) , a proxy for overseas sentiment about China, had rebounded by more than 30% from a year-ago nadir. It dipped nearly 2% on Monday after the weekend news that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and other senior officials were the targets of fatal U.S.-Israeli attacks. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said the relationship with China reached a “very good equilibrium”, and that Trump and Xi could even meet face-to-face as many as four times this year, starting with a three-day visit on the calendar for March 31. Beijing has yet to confirm the meeting, however, mindful that its lavish reception for Trump in 2017 was followed swiftly by his first tariff war. Washington’s campaigns to topple regimes in Tehran and Caracas complicate matters. Both are major oil suppliers to China while playing important roles in yuan internationalisation and Xi’s signature Belt and Road infrastructure development policy. For now, bilateral relations are more likely to fray than break. Working-level officials are still laying the groundwork for a potential summit, despite licensing agreements being among the few deliverables on the table, the South China Morning Post reported on Tuesday. For symbolic purposes at a minimum, Xi will be reluctant to host Trump when he is projecting strength. Moreover, the events in Iran and Venezuela suggest China’s diplomatic alignments cannot shield its partners. If the scheduled set-piece with the United States comes undone, the protracted strain will be felt far and wide.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最新的军事侵略改变了外交动态，打破了平静。香港恒生指数（.HSI）作为海外对中国情绪的代理，较一年前的低点反弹超过 30%。在周末传出伊朗最高领导人阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊及其他高级官员成为致命美以袭击目标的消息后，该指数周一下跌近 2%。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，与中国的关系达到了 “非常好的平衡”，特朗普和习近平今年甚至可能面对面会晤多达四次，首场三天的访问定于 3 月 31 日。然而，北京尚未确认此次会晤，考虑到 2017 年对特朗普的盛大接待后不久便爆发了第一次关税战争。华盛顿推翻德黑兰和加拉加斯政权的行动使局势复杂化。两国都是中国的重要石油供应国，同时在人民币国际化和习近平的 “一带一路” 基础设施发展政策中扮演着重要角色。目前，双边关系更可能出现裂痕而非破裂。《南华早报》周二报道称，尽管许可协议是桌面上为数不多的成果之一，工作层官员仍在为潜在峰会铺路。出于象征意义，习近平在展现实力时不愿接待特朗普。此外，伊朗和委内瑞拉的事件表明，中国的外交关系无法保护其伙伴。如果与美国的计划性会晤破裂，长期的紧张局势将会广泛显现。</p>
</div><h3>CONTEXT NEWS</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>背景新闻</h3>
</div><p>Chinese officials condemned U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi telling state-run Xinhua news agency on March 1 that the “blatant killing of a sovereign leader” and the incitement of regime change were “unacceptable”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国官员谴责美国和以色列对伊朗的攻击，外交部长王毅在 3 月 1 日对国营新华社表示，“公然杀害主权领导人” 和煽动政权更迭是 “不可接受的”。</p>
</div><p>The military strikes on February 28 killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and other senior officials.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2 月 28 日的军事袭击导致伊朗最高领导人阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊及其他高级官员遇害。</p>
</div><p>China-US tension weighs heavily on markets</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中美紧张关系对市场造成重大压力</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRV-BRV/gkvlkgkrmpb/chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRV-BRV/gkvlkgkrmpb/chart.png"/></p>
<p>(Editing by Jeffrey Goldfarb; Production by Ujjaini Dutta)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（编辑：杰弗里·戈德法布；制作：乌贾伊尼·达塔）</p>
</div>

BREAKINGVIEWS-特朗普与习近平的会面可能因伊朗袭击而受影响