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<p>美国与伊朗的战争迫使投资者重新思考资金的投放方向，因为地缘政治风险取代了人工智能和关税，成为市场的主导叙事。</p>
<p>美国和以色列对伊朗的袭击，随后是导弹报复和霍尔木兹海峡周边的干扰，已将油价推至近七个月来的最高水平，导致股指期货下跌，并促使资金涌入避险资产。</p>
<p>分析师表示，当前战争时期的主要投资方向集中在四个领域：能源生产商、防务承包商、黄金及其他避险资产，以及能够承受更高通胀和波动期的高质量收益投资。</p>
<h2>能源：利用油价风险溢价</h2>
<p>伊朗位于关键航运路线，约 20-25% 的全球海运原油通过霍尔木兹海峡。</p>
<p>随着油轮暂停航行和保险公司重新评估承保，布伦特原油和西德克萨斯中质原油价格均已上涨，一些分析师警告称，持续的干扰可能会将价格推向甚至超过每桶 100 美元。</p>
<p>这种环境通常有利于：</p>
<ul>
<li>拥有多元化上游、炼油和化工业务的综合性大型企业，这些企业受益于更强的原油价格和更宽的产品利润。</li>
<li>能够向受物理瓶颈影响较小的市场销售的区域多元化生产商。</li>
</ul>
<p>专家指出，大型现金流产生的石油公司可能会成为伊朗风险溢价的潜在受益者，指出它们的公允价值估计假设的基准价格低于目前讨论的价格。</p>
<p>瑞银和其他财富管理公司也将能源视为一个关键的超配领域，只要供应担忧主导，全球需求保持韧性。</p>
<h2>防务：高军费支出的长期赢家</h2>
<p>在股票方面，防务是另一个显而易见的战争赢家。</p>
<p>涉及美国、伊朗和以色列的全面冲突 “将对金融市场产生涟漪效应，并引入显著的波动性”，但历史表明，防务和航空航天股票通常会在导弹、飞机和雷达系统订单增加时表现优于大盘，依据一项跨行业分析。</p>
<p>在研究报告中反复提到的公司包括：</p>
<ul>
<li>在导弹防御、巡航导弹和美国及以色列使用的先进战斗机方面有曝光的美国主要承包商。</li>
<li>提供爱国者和铁穹等防空和雷达系统的公司，这些系统直接参与抵御伊朗及其代理人的攻击。</li>
</ul>
<p>分析师强调，之前中东的紧张局势与对这些承包商的重新关注相吻合，因为投资者预期不仅会有立即的补给订单，如果对抗持续，防务预算也会结构性提高。</p>
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<h2>黄金和避险资产：对升级的保险</h2>
<p>除了行业投资，美国与伊朗的战争重新激活了经典的 “风险规避” 交易。油价的上涨和对通胀冲击的担忧促使投资者涌向黄金、美元和高等级政府债券。</p>
<p>黄金价格飙升至创纪录水平，Capital Economics 等分析师警告称，对伊朗基础设施的进一步打击可能会使能源和贵金属价格保持高位，复杂化中央银行降息的努力。</p>
<p>一项详细的跨资产评估指出，在霍尔木兹海峡持续受阻或军事反应持续的情况下，“石油和贵金属将继续上涨，而全球股票将面临重新抛售的压力”，投资者寻求在瑞士法郎、日元和美国国债中寻求安全。</p>
<p>美国策略师将华尔街当前的做法描述为 “避险优先，事后再问”，短期国债收益率回落至 2022 年的低点，交易员对进一步冲击进行对冲。</p>
<p>投资组合经理还指出，高质量的防御性股票领域，如公用事业和房地产，如果增长放缓且波动性保持高位，可能会成为相对受益者。</p>
<h2>质量和多样化仍然重要</h2>
<p>即使是看似适合战争时期的行业也有其警示。一些市场策略师认为，考虑到伊朗的弱势地位以及全球普遍希望避免长期油价冲击的兴趣，局势缓和可能会比预期更快到来。</p>
<p>这可能会导致石油和黄金回吐部分涨幅，领导权重新转向更广泛的周期性股票。</p>
<p>其他人强调，尽管能源和防务可能领先，但 “消费品股票可能会面临困难，因为更高的油价对航空公司和零售商产生负面影响”，指出由于航线受阻和燃料成本上升，旅行和休闲类股票近期出现抛售。</p>
<p>新兴市场的石油进口国也被视为脆弱，因为更高的进口账单扩大了赤字，并迫使中央银行在利率上做出艰难选择。</p>
<p>主要机构的共识是，随着美国与伊朗冲突的发展，倾向于能源、防务、黄金和高质量收益的投资组合——同时保持广泛的多样化和流动性——最适合在几周内应对加剧的地缘政治风险，而不对任何单一结果进行过度押注。</p>
<p>这篇文章的标题为《在美国与伊朗冲突震动全球市场时，投资在哪里？》首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>

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<p>美国与伊朗的冲突正在重塑投资策略，地缘政治风险现在已超越以往的市场叙事。由于军事行动和霍尔木兹海峡的干扰，油价飙升，促使投资者转向避险资产。分析师强调了四个关键投资领域：能源生产商、国防承包商、黄金和高质量的收益投资。尽管能源和国防行业预计将受益，但由于市场波动可能影响依赖石油进口的消费品股票和新兴市场，建议保持谨慎</p>

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<p>The US–Iran war is forcing investors to rethink where to put money to work as geopolitical risk replaces artificial intelligence and tariffs as the dominant market narrative.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国与伊朗的战争迫使投资者重新思考资金的投放方向，因为地缘政治风险取代了人工智能和关税，成为市场的主导叙事。</p>
</div><p>Strikes by the US and Israel on Iran, followed by missile retaliation and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, have pushed oil to its highest levels in nearly seven months, knocked stock futures lower and driven a rush into safe‑haven assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国和以色列对伊朗的袭击，随后是导弹报复和霍尔木兹海峡周边的干扰，已将油价推至近七个月来的最高水平，导致股指期货下跌，并促使资金涌入避险资产。</p>
</div><p>Analysts say the main axis of wartime positioning now runs through four areas: energy producers, defence contractors, gold and other havens, and high‑quality income plays that can withstand a period of higher inflation and volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师表示，当前战争时期的主要投资方向集中在四个领域：能源生产商、防务承包商、黄金及其他避险资产，以及能够承受更高通胀和波动期的高质量收益投资。</p>
</div><h2>Energy: Riding the oil risk premium</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>能源：利用油价风险溢价</h2>
</div><p>Iran sits on key shipping routes where about 20–25% of global seaborne crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗位于关键航运路线，约 20-25% 的全球海运原油通过霍尔木兹海峡。</p>
</div><p>With tankers suspending transits and insurers reassessing coverage, both Brent and West Texas Intermediate have broken higher, with some analysts warning that a sustained disruption could push prices toward or even above $100 a barrel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着油轮暂停航行和保险公司重新评估承保，布伦特原油和西德克萨斯中质原油价格均已上涨，一些分析师警告称，持续的干扰可能会将价格推向甚至超过每桶 100 美元。</p>
</div><p>That environment typically favours:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种环境通常有利于：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Integrated majors with diversified upstream, refining and chemicals operations, which benefit from stronger crude and wider product margins.</li>
<li>Regionally diversified producers that can sell into markets less affected by physical chokepoints.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>拥有多元化上游、炼油和化工业务的综合性大型企业，这些企业受益于更强的原油价格和更宽的产品利润。</li>
<li>能够向受物理瓶颈影响较小的市场销售的区域多元化生产商。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Experts point to large, cash‑generative oil companies as potential beneficiaries of an Iran risk premium, noting that their fair‑value estimates assumed lower benchmark prices than those now being discussed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>专家指出，大型现金流产生的石油公司可能会成为伊朗风险溢价的潜在受益者，指出它们的公允价值估计假设的基准价格低于目前讨论的价格。</p>
</div><p>UBS and other wealth managers also flag energy as a key overweight as long as supply concerns dominate and global demand remains resilient.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瑞银和其他财富管理公司也将能源视为一个关键的超配领域，只要供应担忧主导，全球需求保持韧性。</p>
</div><h2>Defence: Long‑cycle winners from higher military spending</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>防务：高军费支出的长期赢家</h2>
</div><p>On the equity side, defence is the other obvious wartime winner.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在股票方面，防务是另一个显而易见的战争赢家。</p>
</div><p>A full‑scale conflict involving the US, Iran and Israel “would send ripples through financial markets and introduce significant volatility,” but history shows that defence and aerospace stocks often outperform as orders for missiles, aircraft and radar systems rise, according to one cross‑sector analysis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>涉及美国、伊朗和以色列的全面冲突 “将对金融市场产生涟漪效应，并引入显著的波动性”，但历史表明，防务和航空航天股票通常会在导弹、飞机和雷达系统订单增加时表现优于大盘，依据一项跨行业分析。</p>
</div><p>Names repeatedly cited across research notes include:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在研究报告中反复提到的公司包括：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>US primes with exposure to missile defence, cruise missiles and advanced fighters used by the US and Israel.</li>
<li>Companies providing air‑defence and radar systems such as the Patriot and Iron Dome families, which are directly engaged in countering Iranian and proxy attacks.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>在导弹防御、巡航导弹和美国及以色列使用的先进战斗机方面有曝光的美国主要承包商。</li>
<li>提供爱国者和铁穹等防空和雷达系统的公司，这些系统直接参与抵御伊朗及其代理人的攻击。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Analysts highlight that prior Middle East flare‑ups have coincided with renewed interest in these contractors, as investors anticipate both immediate replenishment orders and structurally higher defence budgets if the confrontation drags on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师强调，之前中东的紧张局势与对这些承包商的重新关注相吻合，因为投资者预期不仅会有立即的补给订单，如果对抗持续，防务预算也会结构性提高。</p>
</div><p><strong><em>Buy stocks instantly on eToro now.</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>立即在 eToro 上购买股票。</em></strong></p>
</div><h2>Gold and safe havens: Insurance against escalation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>黄金和避险资产：对升级的保险</h2>
</div><p>Beyond sector bets, the US–Iran war has revived classic “risk‑off” trades. Oil’s jump and fears of an inflation shock have driven investors into gold, the US dollar and high‑grade government bonds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了行业投资，美国与伊朗的战争重新激活了经典的 “风险规避” 交易。油价的上涨和对通胀冲击的担忧促使投资者涌向黄金、美元和高等级政府债券。</p>
</div><p>Gold has surged to record levels, and analysts at Capital Economics and others warn that further strikes on Iranian infrastructure could keep both energy and bullion elevated, complicating central banks’ efforts to cut rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金价格飙升至创纪录水平，Capital Economics 等分析师警告称，对伊朗基础设施的进一步打击可能会使能源和贵金属价格保持高位，复杂化中央银行降息的努力。</p>
</div><p>A detailed cross‑asset review notes that in a scenario where the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted or military responses persist, “oil and precious metals will continue to move higher while global equities feel renewed pressure to sell,” with investors seeking safety in the Swiss franc, Japanese yen and US Treasuries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一项详细的跨资产评估指出，在霍尔木兹海峡持续受阻或军事反应持续的情况下，“石油和贵金属将继续上涨，而全球股票将面临重新抛售的压力”，投资者寻求在瑞士法郎、日元和美国国债中寻求安全。</p>
</div><p>US strategists describe Wall Street’s current approach as “haven first, ask questions later,” with short‑term Treasury yields falling back toward 2022 lows as traders hedge against further shocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国策略师将华尔街当前的做法描述为 “避险优先，事后再问”，短期国债收益率回落至 2022 年的低点，交易员对进一步冲击进行对冲。</p>
</div><p>Portfolio managers also flag high‑quality, defensive equity sectors such as utilities and real estate as potential relative beneficiaries if growth slows and volatility stays high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资组合经理还指出，高质量的防御性股票领域，如公用事业和房地产，如果增长放缓且波动性保持高位，可能会成为相对受益者。</p>
</div><h2>Quality and diversification still matter</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>质量和多样化仍然重要</h2>
</div><p>Even sectors that look well‑positioned for wartime come with caveats. Some market strategists argue that de‑escalation could come faster than feared, particularly given Iran’s weakened position and the broad global interest in avoiding a prolonged oil shock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使是看似适合战争时期的行业也有其警示。一些市场策略师认为，考虑到伊朗的弱势地位以及全球普遍希望避免长期油价冲击的兴趣，局势缓和可能会比预期更快到来。</p>
</div><p>That would likely see oil and gold give back some gains and shift leadership back toward broader cyclicals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这可能会导致石油和黄金回吐部分涨幅，领导权重新转向更广泛的周期性股票。</p>
</div><p>Others stress that while energy and defence may lead, “consumer discretionary stocks may struggle as higher oil prices negatively impact airlines and retailers,” pointing to recent sell‑offs in travel and leisure names as flight routes are disrupted and fuel costs climb.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他人强调，尽管能源和防务可能领先，但 “消费品股票可能会面临困难，因为更高的油价对航空公司和零售商产生负面影响”，指出由于航线受阻和燃料成本上升，旅行和休闲类股票近期出现抛售。</p>
</div><p>Emerging‑market importers of oil are also seen as vulnerable as higher import bills widen deficits and force central banks into tough choices on rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新兴市场的石油进口国也被视为脆弱，因为更高的进口账单扩大了赤字，并迫使中央银行在利率上做出艰难选择。</p>
</div><p>The consensus across major houses is that, as the US–Iran conflict plays out, portfolios tilted toward energy, defence, gold and high‑quality income — while staying broadly diversified and liquid — are best placed to navigate a few weeks of heightened geopolitical risk without over‑betting on any single outcome.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>主要机构的共识是，随着美国与伊朗冲突的发展，倾向于能源、防务、黄金和高质量收益的投资组合——同时保持广泛的多样化和流动性——最适合在几周内应对加剧的地缘政治风险，而不对任何单一结果进行过度押注。</p>
</div><p>The post Where to invest in wartime as US–Iran clash rattles global markets appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这篇文章的标题为《在美国与伊朗冲突震动全球市场时，投资在哪里？》首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>
</div>

在美伊冲突扰乱全球市场的情况下，战时应投资于何处