<p>( )</p><ul><li>非农就业人数预计在二月份增加 59,000</li></ul><ul><li>预计放缓紧随一月份的超预期增长</li></ul><ul><li>失业率预计保持在 4.3% 不变</li></ul><p>作者：Lucia Mutikani</p><p>华盛顿，3 月 6 日（路透社）- 美国的就业增长在二月份可能放缓，医疗保健行业的招聘预计将在一月份的超预期增长后恢复正常趋势，但失业率预计将保持在 4.3% 不变。劳工部备受关注的就业报告预计将在周五发布，可能显示出劳动市场的稳定性，此前在 2025 年因经济学家所称的特朗普总统的广泛关税而出现了动荡。这将强化经济学家们的观点，即美联储并不急于恢复降息，尤其是在中东战争威胁到通货膨胀的情况下。</p><p>自美国和以色列上周末对伊朗发动空袭以来，零售汽油价格已上涨超过每加仑 20 美分，汽车协会 AAA 的数据表明，这可能使消费者在其他商品和服务上的支出减少。</p><p>德黑兰已进行报复，扩大了一场分析人士称正在演变为更广泛地区冲突的战争。经济学家认为，长期战争对劳动市场构成下行风险。冲突导致股市波动，经济学家警告这可能导致高收入家庭——通过消费支出推动经济的关键驱动者——减少支出。</p><p>“我们的就业市场状况良好，但不如 2023 年和 2024 年那么好，” PNC 金融的首席经济学家 Gus Faucher 表示。“战争只会带来额外的不确定性，企业已经很谨慎，可能会变得更加谨慎。经济是脆弱的。”</p><p>非农就业人数在上个月可能增加了 59,000 个职位，而一月份则增加了 130,000 个，路透社对经济学家的调查预测。估计范围从减少 9,000 个职位到增加 125,000 个职位。除了医疗保健的回调，加州和夏威夷 31,000 名医疗工作者的罢工也可能对就业人数产生影响。</p><p>一月份医疗保健就业人数增加了 82,000 个职位，超过了 2025 年每月平均 33,000 个职位的两倍。经济学家将这一异常增长归因于劳工统计局用于估算某个月因公司开业或关闭而增加或减少的职位的出生与死亡模型。</p><p>劳工统计局在一月份的就业报告中更新了出生与死亡模型。经济学家估计，这为一月份的就业人数增加了额外的 70,000 个职位。严寒的冬季天气也可能对就业人数产生拖累。</p><p>“我们对就业增长放缓的预测并不是经济放缓的信号，而是反映了天气导致建筑业就业人数放缓和医疗保健就业的某些回调，” 摩根士丹利首席经济学家 Michael Gapen 表示。新的人口控制将被引入。</p><p>劳工统计局将发布因去年的 43 天政府停摆而延迟的新人口控制。经济学家预计，这些数据可能显示出在特朗普政府的移民打击下，2025 年劳动供应被高估。减少的劳动供应也被归咎于劳动市场的放缓。</p><p>人口普查局上个月估计，截止 2025 年 6 月，国家人口仅增加了 180 万人，或 0.5%，达到 3.418 亿。</p><p>“来自人口普查局的更新数据，作为劳工统计局估算的依据，表明自 2024 年底以来，劳工统计局一直高估人口增长，” BNP Paribas Securities 首席美国经济学家 James Egelhof 表示。</p><p>“我们估计，更新后的 1 月份数据中，16 岁及以上人口将下调约 590,000，劳动参与率将下调约 370,000，家庭调查就业水平也将类似减少。”</p><p>Egelhof 表示，使用一种实验性的劳工统计局系列数据，该数据平滑了过去的人口控制和移民，并结合最新的人口普查局数据，BNP Paribas Securities 估计 2025 年劳动参与率仅增长 90 万人，并预计 2026 年整体劳动参与率增长将远低于 50 万人。</p><p>人口控制只会影响 1 月份的家庭调查数据。这意味着家庭就业、失业和劳动参与等指标的月度水平将无法直接比较。</p><p>“好消息是，关键比率，即失业率和劳动参与率通常受到的影响很小，” 美国银行证券的经济学家 Shruti Mishra 表示。“去年，人口控制使这两个比率增加了一个百分点，而今年的风险是新控制可能会略微降低这些比率。”</p><p>经济学家预计，人口控制可能显示经济需要每月创造少于 50,000 个职位，以跟上适龄人口的增长。尽管如此，他们认为失业率在二月份回升至 4.4% 的风险仍然存在，但不会将其视为令人担忧的信号。预计美国中央银行将在 3 月 17-18 日的会议上将基准隔夜利率维持在 3.50%-3.75% 的区间。原油价格上涨加剧了人们对通货膨胀压力将使美联储保持鹰派立场的担忧。</p><p>“这仍然是历史上较低的失业率，正好在美联储认为长期应该保持的水平，” PNC 金融的 Faucher 表示。“如果我们看到失业率开始上升，达到 4.6%，那么我会开始感到有些焦虑。”</p>

标普 500 指数

纳斯达克综合指数

<p>( )</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>( )</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Nonfarm payrolls forecast increasing 59,000 in February</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>非农就业人数预计在二月份增加 59,000</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Anticipated slowdown follows outsized gain in January</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>预计放缓紧随一月份的超预期增长</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Unemployment rate expected to have held steady at 4.3%</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>失业率预计保持在 4.3% 不变</li>
</ul>
</div><p>By Lucia Mutikani</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Lucia Mutikani</p>
</div><p>WASHINGTON, March 6 (Reuters) - U.S. job growth likely cooled in February, with hiring in the healthcare sector expected to return to normal trends after an outsized increase in January, but the unemployment rate is anticipated to have remained steady at 4.3%. The Labor Department’s closely watched employment report on Friday is likely to project a picture of labor market stability after stumbling in 2025 amid what economists said was uncertainty stemming from President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs. It would reinforce economists’ views that the Federal Reserve was in no rush to resume cutting interest rates, especially as the Middle East war threatens to stoke inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华盛顿，3 月 6 日（路透社）- 美国的就业增长在二月份可能放缓，医疗保健行业的招聘预计将在一月份的超预期增长后恢复正常趋势，但失业率预计将保持在 4.3% 不变。劳工部备受关注的就业报告预计将在周五发布，可能显示出劳动市场的稳定性，此前在 2025 年因经济学家所称的特朗普总统的广泛关税而出现了动荡。这将强化经济学家们的观点，即美联储并不急于恢复降息，尤其是在中东战争威胁到通货膨胀的情况下。</p>
</div><p>Retail gasoline prices have surged by more than 20 cents per gallon since the U.S. and Israel launched air attacks on Iran last weekend, data from motorist advocacy group AAA showed, potentially leaving consumers with less money to spend on other goods and services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自美国和以色列上周末对伊朗发动空袭以来，零售汽油价格已上涨超过每加仑 20 美分，汽车协会 AAA 的数据表明，这可能使消费者在其他商品和服务上的支出减少。</p>
</div><p>Tehran has retaliated, broadening a war that analysts said was descending into a wider regional conflict. Economists saw a downside risk to the labor market from a prolonged war. The conflict is causing stock market volatility, which economists warned could cause higher-income households, the key drivers of the economy through consumer spending, to cut back.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德黑兰已进行报复，扩大了一场分析人士称正在演变为更广泛地区冲突的战争。经济学家认为，长期战争对劳动市场构成下行风险。冲突导致股市波动，经济学家警告这可能导致高收入家庭——通过消费支出推动经济的关键驱动者——减少支出。</p>
</div><p>“We have a job market that is in solid shape, but it’s not as good as it was in 2023 and 2024,” said Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial. “The war just creates additional uncertainty, businesses are already cautious, and maybe they become even more cautious. The economy is vulnerable.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们的就业市场状况良好，但不如 2023 年和 2024 年那么好，” PNC 金融的首席经济学家 Gus Faucher 表示。“战争只会带来额外的不确定性，企业已经很谨慎，可能会变得更加谨慎。经济是脆弱的。”</p>
</div><p>Nonfarm payrolls probably increased by 59,000 jobs last month after advancing 130,000 in January, a Reuters survey of economists predicted. Estimates ranged from a loss of 9,000 jobs to an increase of 125,000 positions. In addition to payback in healthcare, a strike by 31,000 healthcare workers in California and Hawaii could also weigh on payrolls.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>非农就业人数在上个月可能增加了 59,000 个职位，而一月份则增加了 130,000 个，路透社对经济学家的调查预测。估计范围从减少 9,000 个职位到增加 125,000 个职位。除了医疗保健的回调，加州和夏威夷 31,000 名医疗工作者的罢工也可能对就业人数产生影响。</p>
</div><p>Healthcare payrolls increased by 82,000 jobs in January, more than double the monthly average of 33,000 in 2025. Economists attributed the abnormal increase to the birth-and-death model, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses to estimate how many jobs were gained or lost because of companies opening or closing in a given month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一月份医疗保健就业人数增加了 82,000 个职位，超过了 2025 年每月平均 33,000 个职位的两倍。经济学家将这一异常增长归因于劳工统计局用于估算某个月因公司开业或关闭而增加或减少的职位的出生与死亡模型。</p>
</div><p>The BLS updated the birth-and-death model with January’s employment report. Economists estimated that added an extra 70,000 jobs to January’s payrolls. Harsh winter weather could also be a drag on payrolls.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>劳工统计局在一月份的就业报告中更新了出生与死亡模型。经济学家估计，这为一月份的就业人数增加了额外的 70,000 个职位。严寒的冬季天气也可能对就业人数产生拖累。</p>
</div><p>“Our projection of slow employment growth is not a signal of an economic slowdown, but rather it reflects anticipated one-off drags from weather slowing construction payrolls and some payback in healthcare employment,” said Michael Gapen, chief economist at Morgan Stanley. NEW POPULATION CONTROLS WILL BE INTRODUCED</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们对就业增长放缓的预测并不是经济放缓的信号，而是反映了天气导致建筑业就业人数放缓和医疗保健就业的某些回调，” 摩根士丹利首席经济学家 Michael Gapen 表示。新的人口控制将被引入。</p>
</div><p>The BLS will publish new population controls that were delayed by last year’s 43-day government shutdown. Economists expected these would likely show labor supply had been overestimated in 2025 amid an immigration crackdown by the Trump administration. Reduced labor supply has also been blamed for the labor market slowdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>劳工统计局将发布因去年的 43 天政府停摆而延迟的新人口控制。经济学家预计，这些数据可能显示出在特朗普政府的移民打击下，2025 年劳动供应被高估。减少的劳动供应也被归咎于劳动市场的放缓。</p>
</div><p>The Census Bureau last month estimated the nation’s population increased by just 1.8 million people, or 0.5%, to 341.8 million in the year ending June 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人口普查局上个月估计，截止 2025 年 6 月，国家人口仅增加了 180 万人，或 0.5%，达到 3.418 亿。</p>
</div><p>“Updated data from the Census Bureau, which feeds into the BLS estimates, suggest that the BLS has been overestimating population growth since late-2024,” said James Egelhof, chief U.S. economist at BNP Paribas Securities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“来自人口普查局的更新数据，作为劳工统计局估算的依据，表明自 2024 年底以来，劳工统计局一直高估人口增长，” BNP Paribas Securities 首席美国经济学家 James Egelhof 表示。</p>
</div><p>“We estimate the population aged 16-and-over will be revised down by about 590,000 in the refreshed January data, that the labor force will be revised down by about 370,000, with a similar cut to the level of household survey employment.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们估计，更新后的 1 月份数据中，16 岁及以上人口将下调约 590,000，劳动参与率将下调约 370,000，家庭调查就业水平也将类似减少。”</p>
</div><p>Egelhof said using an experimental BLS series that smoothes for past population controls and immigration, and incorporating the latest vintage of Census Bureau data, BNP Paribas Securities estimated the labor force grew only 900,000 in 2025 and expected overall labor force growth of well below 500,000 in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Egelhof 表示，使用一种实验性的劳工统计局系列数据，该数据平滑了过去的人口控制和移民，并结合最新的人口普查局数据，BNP Paribas Securities 估计 2025 年劳动参与率仅增长 90 万人，并预计 2026 年整体劳动参与率增长将远低于 50 万人。</p>
</div><p>The population controls will only impact January household survey data. That means the month-over-month levels of household employment, unemployment and labor force among other metrics will not be directly comparable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人口控制只会影响 1 月份的家庭调查数据。这意味着家庭就业、失业和劳动参与等指标的月度水平将无法直接比较。</p>
</div><p>“The good news is that the key ratios, the unemployment rate and labor force participation rate are usually little affected,” said Shruti Mishra, an economist at Bank of America Securities. “Last year, the population control added a tenth to both, and this year the risk is that the new controls skew these ratios slightly lower.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“好消息是，关键比率，即失业率和劳动参与率通常受到的影响很小，” 美国银行证券的经济学家 Shruti Mishra 表示。“去年，人口控制使这两个比率增加了一个百分点，而今年的风险是新控制可能会略微降低这些比率。”</p>
</div><p>The population controls will likely show the economy needed to create fewer than 50,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population, economists projected. Still, they saw an upside risk to the unemployment rate rising back to 4.4% in February, but would not view that as a worrying sign. The U.S. central bank is expected to keep its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range at its March 17-18 meeting. Rising crude oil prices have heightened worries that inflation pressures would keep the Fed in a hawkish posture.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经济学家预计，人口控制可能显示经济需要每月创造少于 50,000 个职位，以跟上适龄人口的增长。尽管如此，他们认为失业率在二月份回升至 4.4% 的风险仍然存在，但不会将其视为令人担忧的信号。预计美国中央银行将在 3 月 17-18 日的会议上将基准隔夜利率维持在 3.50%-3.75% 的区间。原油价格上涨加剧了人们对通货膨胀压力将使美联储保持鹰派立场的担忧。</p>
</div><p>“It’s a still historically low unemployment rate, it’s right around where the Fed thinks it should be over the longer run,” said PNC Financial’s Faucher. “If we see the unemployment rate start to break to the upside, get to 4.6%, then I’m starting to get a little more anxious.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这仍然是历史上较低的失业率，正好在美联储认为长期应该保持的水平，” PNC 金融的 Faucher 表示。“如果我们看到失业率开始上升，达到 4.6%，那么我会开始感到有些焦虑。”</p>
</div>

WRAPUP 1-Slower US job growth expected in February; unemployment rate forecast steady at 4.3%

- 二月份非农就业人数预计增加 59,000，增幅较一月减少。  
- 失业率预计保持在 4.3% 的稳定水平。  
- 经济学家警告，战争和油价上涨可能影响消费支出。

Reuters

美国 2 月份的就业增长预计将放缓；失业率预计将保持在 4.3%