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<p>美国劳动力市场在 2 月份出现降温迹象，非农就业人数意外下降，失业率也高于预期，这使得美联储在做出利率决策时面临复杂局面，因为它需要在疲弱的就业报告与中东冲突引发的油价通胀风险之间权衡。</p>
<p>根据劳工部劳工统计局周五发布的数据，非农就业人数上个月减少了 92,000 个职位，此前 1 月份的增幅被下调至 126,000 个。</p>
<p>路透社调查的经济学家预计，非农就业人数将在 1 月份报告的 130,000 个职位增幅基础上增加约 59,000 个职位。</p>
<p>失业率为 4.4%，高于预期的 4.3%。</p>
<p>经济学家表示，只有当失业率攀升至大约 4.5% 以上时，劳动力市场的担忧才会加剧。</p>
<p>2 月份的数据显示与预期相比显著不及，经济学家的预测范围从减少 9,000 个职位到增加多达 125,000 个职位不等。</p>
<p>金融市场对低于预期的就业数据反应消极。</p>
<p>与道琼斯工业平均指数相关的期货下跌了 366 点，约 0.7%；标准普尔 500 期货下跌 0.8%，纳斯达克 100 期货下跌约 1%。</p>
<p>在英国，富时 100 指数下跌了 1%，创下自 2 月 6 日以来的最低水平。</p>
<p>https://twitter.com/StockSavvyShay/status/2029914768317034635</p>
<h2>罢工和天气导致的劳动力市场干扰</h2>
<p>部分疲软反映了临时性干扰，包括大约 31,000 名凯瑟医疗集团的医疗工作者罢工和当月的不利天气条件。</p>
<p>由于罢工，医疗行业的就业人数下降，而信息行业和联邦政府的职位持续下降。</p>
<p>经济学家还指出，2 月份的下降是在 1 月份异常强劲的招聘之后发生的，这表明部分下降可能代表了早期增长后的正常化。</p>
<p>1 月份的就业增长受到劳工统计局出生与死亡模型更新的推动，该模型估算了企业开关时创造或失去的职位数量。</p>
<p>影响加州和夏威夷工人的医疗罢工已结束，这可能有助于未来几个月的就业反弹。</p>
<p>尽管招聘数据疲软，但工资增长强于预期。</p>
<p>平均时薪在本月上涨了 0.4%，同比增长 3.8%，均比经济学家的预测高出约 0.1 个百分点。</p>
<h2>修订加深对就业动能的担忧</h2>
<p>最新报告还包括对前几个月的向下修订，增加了对就业增长基本速度的担忧。</p>
<p>12 月份的就业数据被修订为减少 17,000 个职位，而不是之前报告的增加 48,000 个。</p>
<p>1 月份的就业增长也略微下调，新增职位修订为 126,000 个，而不是 130,000 个。</p>
<p>在经历了 2025 年的困难后，劳动力市场似乎正在稳定，当时由于特朗普总统在紧急贸易权力下实施的广泛关税，招聘放缓。</p>
<p>“我认为这只是告诉我们，劳动力市场正在稳定的希望，可能太过乐观，” 旧金山联邦储备银行行长玛丽·达利在接受 CNBC 采访时表示。</p>
<p>“我们还有通胀高于目标和油价上涨。我们不知道这种情况会持续多久，但我们的两个目标现在都面临风险。”</p>
<h2>其他因素影响劳动力市场前景</h2>
<p>其他因素也在影响劳动力市场前景。</p>
<p>劳工统计局最近纳入了由于去年的 43 天政府关门而延迟的更新人口控制。</p>
<p>与此同时，更严格的移民政策减少了劳动力供应，导致劳动力增长放缓。</p>
<p>根据人口普查局的数据，截至 2025 年 6 月，美国人口仅增长了 180 万人，或 0.5%，达到 3.418 亿。</p>
<h2>为什么美联储可能仍会维持基准利率</h2>
<p>通常，这样疲弱的报告会引发市场对美联储降息的预期。</p>
<p>然而，中东危机和油价飙升使情况变得复杂。</p>
<p>由于中东紧张局势推高汽油价格并增加通胀风险，政策制定者普遍预计将在 3 月 17 日至 18 日的下次会议上维持利率不变，将基准利率保持在 3.50% 至 3.75% 的区间内。</p>
<p>“2 月份的就业报告出现了大幅负面意外，失去职位和失业率上升，提醒我们劳动力市场风险并未消失，” Carson Group 首席宏观策略师 Sonu Varghese 表示。</p>
<p>“与此同时，通胀已经高企，即使在即将到来的能源价格冲击和与人工智能相关的瓶颈之前。这将使美联储在降息方面保持谨慎——我们不太可能很快看到降息。”</p>
<p>美国就业报告显示 92K 下降，但这就是美联储可能仍会维持利率的原因，首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>

国泰标普500ETF

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金融业 ETF - Vanguard

<p>美国劳动力市场在二月份出现降温迹象，非农就业人数意外减少了 92,000 个职位，失业率上升至 4.4%。这一疲弱的就业报告使得美联储在利率决策上面临更大复杂性，尤其是在由于中东紧张局势导致燃料价格上涨的通胀压力下。尽管就业人数下降，工资增长却强于预期，平均时薪增长了 0.4%。金融市场对此反应消极，主要指数下跌。由于这些通胀风险，美联储在即将召开的会议上可能会维持利率不变</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/image-1772806492.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/image-1772806492.png"/></p>
<p>The US labor market showed signs of cooling in February after nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell, and unemployment also came a notch higher than expected, complicating the picture for the Fed ahead of its rate decision as it weighs a weak jobs report against the fuel price-led inflationary risks caused by the Middle East conflict.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国劳动力市场在 2 月份出现降温迹象，非农就业人数意外下降，失业率也高于预期，这使得美联储在做出利率决策时面临复杂局面，因为它需要在疲弱的就业报告与中东冲突引发的油价通胀风险之间权衡。</p>
</div><p>Nonfarm payrolls declined by 92,000 jobs last month, following a downwardly revised increase of 126,000 in January, according to data released Friday by the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据劳工部劳工统计局周五发布的数据，非农就业人数上个月减少了 92,000 个职位，此前 1 月份的增幅被下调至 126,000 个。</p>
</div><p>Economists polled by Reuters had expected payrolls to rise by about 59,000 jobs after January’s previously reported gain of 130,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>路透社调查的经济学家预计，非农就业人数将在 1 月份报告的 130,000 个职位增幅基础上增加约 59,000 个职位。</p>
</div><p>The unemployment rate stood at 4.4%, compared with expectations of 4.3%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>失业率为 4.4%，高于预期的 4.3%。</p>
</div><p>Economists say concerns about the labor market would intensify only if the jobless rate climbs above roughly 4.5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经济学家表示，只有当失业率攀升至大约 4.5% 以上时，劳动力市场的担忧才会加剧。</p>
</div><p>The February figure marked a significant miss compared with expectations, with economists’ forecasts ranging from a loss of 9,000 jobs to a gain of as many as 125,000 positions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2 月份的数据显示与预期相比显著不及，经济学家的预测范围从减少 9,000 个职位到增加多达 125,000 个职位不等。</p>
</div><p>Financial markets reacted negatively to the weaker-than-expected employment data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>金融市场对低于预期的就业数据反应消极。</p>
</div><p>Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 366 points, or about 0.7%, while S&amp;P 500 futures dropped 0.8% and Nasdaq 100 futures declined around 1%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与道琼斯工业平均指数相关的期货下跌了 366 点，约 0.7%；标准普尔 500 期货下跌 0.8%，纳斯达克 100 期货下跌约 1%。</p>
</div><p>In the UK, the FTSE 100 dropped by 1%, its lowest level since February 6.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在英国，富时 100 指数下跌了 1%，创下自 2 月 6 日以来的最低水平。</p>
</div><p>https://twitter.com/StockSavvyShay/status/2029914768317034635</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>https://twitter.com/StockSavvyShay/status/2029914768317034635</p>
</div><h2>Labor market disruption from strikes and weather</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>罢工和天气导致的劳动力市场干扰</h2>
</div><p>Part of the weakness reflected temporary disruptions, including a strike involving roughly 31,000 healthcare workers at Kaiser Permanente and adverse weather conditions during the month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>部分疲软反映了临时性干扰，包括大约 31,000 名凯瑟医疗集团的医疗工作者罢工和当月的不利天气条件。</p>
</div><p>Employment in the healthcare sector declined as a result of the strike, while jobs in the information sector and the federal government continued to trend lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于罢工，医疗行业的就业人数下降，而信息行业和联邦政府的职位持续下降。</p>
</div><p>Economists also noted that February’s decline followed unusually strong hiring in January, suggesting some of the drop may represent a normalization after earlier gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经济学家还指出，2 月份的下降是在 1 月份异常强劲的招聘之后发生的，这表明部分下降可能代表了早期增长后的正常化。</p>
</div><p>January’s payroll growth was boosted by updates to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ birth-and-death model, which estimates the number of jobs created or lost as businesses open and close.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1 月份的就业增长受到劳工统计局出生与死亡模型更新的推动，该模型估算了企业开关时创造或失去的职位数量。</p>
</div><p>The healthcare strike affecting workers in California and Hawaii has since ended, which could help employment rebound in the coming months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>影响加州和夏威夷工人的医疗罢工已结束，这可能有助于未来几个月的就业反弹。</p>
</div><p>Despite the weak hiring data, wage growth came in stronger than expected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管招聘数据疲软，但工资增长强于预期。</p>
</div><p>Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% in the month and were up 3.8% from a year earlier, both about 0.1 percentage point higher than economists had forecast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均时薪在本月上涨了 0.4%，同比增长 3.8%，均比经济学家的预测高出约 0.1 个百分点。</p>
</div><h2>Revisions deepen concerns about job momentum</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>修订加深对就业动能的担忧</h2>
</div><p>The latest report also included downward revisions to prior months, adding to concerns about the underlying pace of job growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最新报告还包括对前几个月的向下修订，增加了对就业增长基本速度的担忧。</p>
</div><p>December’s payroll figures were revised to show a loss of 17,000 jobs rather than the previously reported gain of 48,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>12 月份的就业数据被修订为减少 17,000 个职位，而不是之前报告的增加 48,000 个。</p>
</div><p>January’s employment growth was also trimmed slightly, with payroll gains revised down to 126,000 from 130,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1 月份的就业增长也略微下调，新增职位修订为 126,000 个，而不是 130,000 个。</p>
</div><p>The labor market has appeared to be stabilizing after a difficult 2025, when hiring slowed amid uncertainty tied to sweeping tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump under emergency trade powers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在经历了 2025 年的困难后，劳动力市场似乎正在稳定，当时由于特朗普总统在紧急贸易权力下实施的广泛关税，招聘放缓。</p>
</div><p>“I think it just tells us that the hopes that the labor market was steadying, maybe that was too much,” Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, told CNBC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我认为这只是告诉我们，劳动力市场正在稳定的希望，可能太过乐观，” 旧金山联邦储备银行行长玛丽·达利在接受 CNBC 采访时表示。</p>
</div><p>“We also have inflation printing above target and oil prices rising. How long they last, we don’t know, but both of our goals are at risks now.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们还有通胀高于目标和油价上涨。我们不知道这种情况会持续多久，但我们的两个目标现在都面临风险。”</p>
</div><h2>Additional factors weighing on labour market outlook</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>其他因素影响劳动力市场前景</h2>
</div><p>Additional factors are also weighing on the labor market outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他因素也在影响劳动力市场前景。</p>
</div><p>The Bureau of Labor Statistics recently incorporated updated population controls that had been delayed due to last year’s 43-day government shutdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>劳工统计局最近纳入了由于去年的 43 天政府关门而延迟的更新人口控制。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, tighter immigration policies have reduced labor supply, contributing to slower workforce growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，更严格的移民政策减少了劳动力供应，导致劳动力增长放缓。</p>
</div><p>According to the Census Bureau, the US population grew by just 1.8 million people, or 0.5%, to 341.8 million in the year ending June 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据人口普查局的数据，截至 2025 年 6 月，美国人口仅增长了 180 万人，或 0.5%，达到 3.418 亿。</p>
</div><h2>Why the Federal Reserve might still hold benchmark rate</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么美联储可能仍会维持基准利率</h2>
</div><p>Normally, such a weak report would trigger expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通常，这样疲弱的报告会引发市场对美联储降息的预期。</p>
</div><p>However, the Middle East crisis and the surge in oil prices have complicated the situation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，中东危机和油价飙升使情况变得复杂。</p>
</div><p>With Middle East tensions pushing gasoline prices higher and raising inflation risks, policymakers are widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at their next meeting on March 17–18, maintaining the benchmark rate in the 3.50% to 3.75% range.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于中东紧张局势推高汽油价格并增加通胀风险，政策制定者普遍预计将在 3 月 17 日至 18 日的下次会议上维持利率不变，将基准利率保持在 3.50% 至 3.75% 的区间内。</p>
</div><p>“The February payroll report saw a big negative surprise with job losses and a higher unemployment rate, a reminder that labor market risks haven’t disappeared,&#34; said Sonu Varghese, chief macro strategist at Carson Group.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“2 月份的就业报告出现了大幅负面意外，失去职位和失业率上升，提醒我们劳动力市场风险并未消失，” Carson Group 首席宏观策略师 Sonu Varghese 表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;At the same time, inflation is already elevated even before the upcoming energy price shock and AI-related bottlenecks. That’s going to stay the Fed’s hand when it comes to interest rate cuts - it’s unlikely we see cuts anytime soon.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“与此同时，通胀已经高企，即使在即将到来的能源价格冲击和与人工智能相关的瓶颈之前。这将使美联储在降息方面保持谨慎——我们不太可能很快看到降息。”</p>
</div><p>The post US jobs report shows 92K drop, but here's why Fed may still hold rates appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国就业报告显示 92K 下降，但这就是美联储可能仍会维持利率的原因，首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>
</div>

US jobs report shows 92K drop, but here's why Fed may still hold rates

- 美国 2 月非农就业人数下降 92,000，失业率上升至 4.4%。  
- 市场对低于预期的就业数据反应负面，主要因中东局势推高油价。  
- 尽管招聘疲软，但薪资增长超预期，可能影响美联储利率决策。

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3 倍做空纳指 ETF - ProShares

2 倍做空纳斯达克指数 ETF - ProShares

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1 倍做空纳斯达克 100 指数 ETF - ProShares

美国就业报告显示减少 92K，但这就是为什么美联储可能仍然维持利率不变的原因