<ul>
<li>美联储的汉马克表示，现在说石油冲击对经济的影响还为时尚早</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>汉马克表示，如果通胀没有缓解，加息可能在考虑之中</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>汉马克希望在再次降息之前对通胀缓解有信心</li>
</ul>
<p>作者：迈克尔·S·德比</p>
<p>纽约，3 月 6 日（路透社）——克利夫兰联邦储备银行行长贝丝·汉马克周五表示，尽管她预计通胀压力会减缓，但如果今年晚些时候没有缓解，美国中央银行可能需要考虑更紧的货币政策，以确保价格压力回落至 2%。</p>
<p>汉马克在接受路透社采访时表示：“我预计通胀会朝着我们的 2% 目标取得进展。我认为我们在今年年底之前不会达到这个目标，但我认为我们会取得一些不错的进展。”</p>
<p>鉴于当前的前景，汉马克表示：“利率应该会保持不变……相当长一段时间。” 但她补充说，如果价格压力没有减退，美联储可能需要采取新的行动以确保它们会减退。</p>
<p>汉马克表示：“如果通胀在今年下半年没有朝着我们的目标取得进展，正如我所期待的那样，这可能是我们需要从政策角度变得更加限制的一个原因。”</p>
<p>这位银行行长表示，通胀在 2027 年前缓解至 2% 目标是可能的，但并不一定需要达到该目标才能支持更宽松的政策。相反，如果有强烈的信心认为通胀有望达到目标，美联储可以降息。汉马克表示，目前尚不清楚与特朗普总统对伊朗的战争相关的飙升油价对未来通胀意味着什么。</p>
<p>汉马克表示：“现在说这一切将如何发展还为时尚早。” 谈到石油冲击时，她说：“我试图关注其规模和持续性。这是持续一周的事情吗？还是持续两个月？根据你所知道的时间框架，这将决定一些更深层次的经济影响。”</p>
<p>这位官员表示，延长的冲击可能会同时推高通胀并抑制增长和招聘等因素，美联储必须在决定政策应对之前评估这些情况。</p>
<p>美联储面临矛盾压力 汉马克在政府发布经济数据的同一天接受采访，该数据显示美国经济在 2 月份失去了 92,000 个就业岗位，失业率小幅上升至 4.4%。招聘的负面转变加剧了对劳动力市场脆弱性的担忧，而特朗普的战争导致能源价格飙升，全球供应出现重大中断。这两个因素可能使美联储陷入困境。大规模的汽油价格上涨风险推动已经高企的通胀水平，而这些水平已经因特朗普对进口的大规模增税而上升。它们还可能使公众对未来通胀的预期失去稳定，并指向美联储可能需要更长时间保持利率不变，甚至考虑加息。</p>
<p>但另一方面，疲软的就业市场可能会促使降息。尽管通胀超过了 2% 的目标，美联储去年将利率目标下调了 0.75 个百分点，降至 3.5% 至 3.75% 之间，以帮助支持就业市场。</p>
<p>美联储下次会议将在 3 月 17 日至 18 日举行，普遍预计将保持利率不变。汉马克是今年利率设定联邦公开市场委员会的投票成员。</p>
<p>汉马克在采访中表示，招聘数据显示出稳定的迹象，她目前最密切关注失业率，因为围绕工资单数字的因素存在不确定性。</p>
<p>汉马克表示，她没有看到金融市场存在任何重大系统性问题，但补充说，私人信贷问题在她的关注范围内，相关发展可能会给投资者带来一些痛苦。</p>
<p>她还为美联储当前的银行监管体系辩护，因为该机构正在考虑可能导致对金融体系的监管减轻的变化。</p>
<p>汉马克表示：“我相信，经过金融危机后实施的一系列法规使系统变得更加安全。” 她指出，这些规则帮助银行成功应对 COVID-19 疫情，使其在这些困难时期 “能够成为经济的支柱和贷款来源”。</p>
<p>汉马克表示：“我认为保持这种支持水平很重要。” 她补充说，某些领域仍然可能会进行调整或改变。</p>

油气开采 ETF - SPDR

能源业 ETF - SPDR

美国 WTI 原油 ETF

标普全球能源股指数 ETF - iShares

油气服务 ETF - Market Vectors

美国油气勘探与生产 ETF - iShares

<ul>
<li>Fed’s Hammack says too soon to say what oil shock means for economy</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>美联储的汉马克表示，现在说石油冲击对经济的影响还为时尚早</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Hammack says rate hike may be on table if inflation does not ease</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>汉马克表示，如果通胀没有缓解，加息可能在考虑之中</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Hammack wants confidence inflation easing before cutting again</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>汉马克希望在再次降息之前对通胀缓解有信心</li>
</ul>
</div><p>By Michael S. Derby</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：迈克尔·S·德比</p>
</div><p>NEW YORK, March 6 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said on Friday that while she expects inflation pressures to moderate, if they are not easing later this year the U.S. central bank may have to weigh tighter monetary policy to ensure price pressures retreat to 2%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>纽约，3 月 6 日（路透社）——克利夫兰联邦储备银行行长贝丝·汉马克周五表示，尽管她预计通胀压力会减缓，但如果今年晚些时候没有缓解，美国中央银行可能需要考虑更紧的货币政策，以确保价格压力回落至 2%。</p>
</div><p>“My expectation has been that inflation would start making progress towards our 2% target. I don’t think we’ll get there by the end of this year by any stretch, but I think we’ll make some decent progress,” Hammack said in an interview with Reuters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>汉马克在接受路透社采访时表示：“我预计通胀会朝着我们的 2% 目标取得进展。我认为我们在今年年底之前不会达到这个目标，但我认为我们会取得一些不错的进展。”</p>
</div><p>Given the current outlook, “rates should be on hold for …quite some time,” Hammack said. But she added that if price pressures do not retreat, the Fed might need to take renewed action to ensure that they will.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于当前的前景，汉马克表示：“利率应该会保持不变……相当长一段时间。” 但她补充说，如果价格压力没有减退，美联储可能需要采取新的行动以确保它们会减退。</p>
</div><p>“If inflation is not making progress towards our goal in the latter half of this year, as I expect that it should, that might be a reason why we might need to be more restrictive from policy perspective,” Hammack said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>汉马克表示：“如果通胀在今年下半年没有朝着我们的目标取得进展，正如我所期待的那样，这可能是我们需要从政策角度变得更加限制的一个原因。”</p>
</div><p>The bank president said it is possible but not assured that inflation will ease to the 2% target by 2027, but it does not need to be at the goal to support easier policy. Instead, the Fed can cut rates if there is strong confidence that inflation is on track to hit the goal. Hammack said it was unclear so far what surging oil prices tied to President Donald Trump’s war on Iran mean for future inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这位银行行长表示，通胀在 2027 年前缓解至 2% 目标是可能的，但并不一定需要达到该目标才能支持更宽松的政策。相反，如果有强烈的信心认为通胀有望达到目标，美联储可以降息。汉马克表示，目前尚不清楚与特朗普总统对伊朗的战争相关的飙升油价对未来通胀意味着什么。</p>
</div><p>It is “too early to know” how all this will play out, Hammack said. When it comes to the oil shock, “I try to look at what’s the magnitude and what’s the persistence? So, is this something that lasts for a week? Does it last for two months? Depending on what you know, what that time frame is, (that) will determine some more of the underlying economic impact,” she said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>汉马克表示：“现在说这一切将如何发展还为时尚早。” 谈到石油冲击时，她说：“我试图关注其规模和持续性。这是持续一周的事情吗？还是持续两个月？根据你所知道的时间框架，这将决定一些更深层次的经济影响。”</p>
</div><p>The official said it is possible that an extended shock will both drive up inflation and depress factors like growth and hiring, and the Fed will have to evaluate those circumstances before deciding on a policy response.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这位官员表示，延长的冲击可能会同时推高通胀并抑制增长和招聘等因素，美联储必须在决定政策应对之前评估这些情况。</p>
</div><p>FED FACES CONFLICTING PRESSURES Hammack was interviewed on the same day that the government released economic data that showed that the U.S. economy lost 92,000 jobs in February amid a small rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4%. The negative turn on hiring bolstered fears of labor market vulnerability and came as Trump’s war has caused energy prices to surge amid substantial disruptions in global supplies. Those two factors potentially put the Fed in a bind. Large-scale gasoline price increases risk pushing up already-high levels of inflation that are in turn already elevated by Trump’s campaign of large-scale tax increases on imports. They also risk unmooring the public’s expectation of future inflation and point to the potential need for the Fed to keep interest rates on hold for longer, or even to weigh a rate hike.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储面临矛盾压力 汉马克在政府发布经济数据的同一天接受采访，该数据显示美国经济在 2 月份失去了 92,000 个就业岗位，失业率小幅上升至 4.4%。招聘的负面转变加剧了对劳动力市场脆弱性的担忧，而特朗普的战争导致能源价格飙升，全球供应出现重大中断。这两个因素可能使美联储陷入困境。大规模的汽油价格上涨风险推动已经高企的通胀水平，而这些水平已经因特朗普对进口的大规模增税而上升。它们还可能使公众对未来通胀的预期失去稳定，并指向美联储可能需要更长时间保持利率不变，甚至考虑加息。</p>
</div><p>But on the other side, a sputtering job market could agitate for a rate cut. The Fed lowered its interest rate target by three-quarters of a percentage point to between 3.5% and 3.75% last year to help support the job market, even with inflation overshooting the 2% target.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但另一方面，疲软的就业市场可能会促使降息。尽管通胀超过了 2% 的目标，美联储去年将利率目标下调了 0.75 个百分点，降至 3.5% 至 3.75% 之间，以帮助支持就业市场。</p>
</div><p>The Fed next meets March 17-18 and is widely expected to hold interest rates steady. Hammack is a voting member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储下次会议将在 3 月 17 日至 18 日举行，普遍预计将保持利率不变。汉马克是今年利率设定联邦公开市场委员会的投票成员。</p>
</div><p>Hammack said in the interview that the jobs data shows signs of stabilizing and that she most closely tracks the unemployment rate right now amid uncertainty surrounding the factors now at play with the payroll number.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>汉马克在采访中表示，招聘数据显示出稳定的迹象，她目前最密切关注失业率，因为围绕工资单数字的因素存在不确定性。</p>
</div><p>Hammack said she did not see any major systemic issues in financial markets but added that private credit troubles were on her radar and that developments there could bring some pain to investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>汉马克表示，她没有看到金融市场存在任何重大系统性问题，但补充说，私人信贷问题在她的关注范围内，相关发展可能会给投资者带来一些痛苦。</p>
</div><p>She also defended the current banking regulatory system used by the Fed as the institution is weighing changes that could lead to lighter oversight of the financial system.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>她还为美联储当前的银行监管体系辩护，因为该机构正在考虑可能导致对金融体系的监管减轻的变化。</p>
</div><p>“I believe that the system has been made safer by a number of the regulations that were put in place” after the great financial crisis, Hammack said. She noted those rules aided the successful navigation of the COVID-19 pandemic by banks, which were “able to be a source of strength and a source of lending into the real economy” during those troubles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>汉马克表示：“我相信，经过金融危机后实施的一系列法规使系统变得更加安全。” 她指出，这些规则帮助银行成功应对 COVID-19 疫情，使其在这些困难时期 “能够成为经济的支柱和贷款来源”。</p>
</div><p>“I think it’s important that we maintain that level of support,” Hammack said, adding it was still possible that certain areas might be tweaked or changed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>汉马克表示：“我认为保持这种支持水平很重要。” 她补充说，某些领域仍然可能会进行调整或改变。</p>
</div>

在石油冲击带来的不确定性中，美联储的哈马克表示央行必须降低通胀