<p>TradingKey - 新兴市场今年表现亮眼：除了曾一度飙升 40% 的韩国 KOSPI 指数外，巴西的 BVSP 指数年初至今上涨近 20%，南非的基准 SAALL 指数也上涨了约 10%。</p>
<p>然而，自美国与伊朗冲突爆发以来，MSCI 亚太指数本周下跌了 6%，这一跌幅远大于同期标普 500 指数的跌幅，表明全球资本正在加速回流美国。</p>
<p>今年早些时候流行的 “卖出美国，买入亚洲” 交易策略是否已经过时？美国与伊朗的冲突是否会彻底逆转 2026 年新兴市场的强劲反弹？</p>
<h2>原油飙升：能源进口依赖压制亚洲股市</h2>
<p>分析师认为，亚洲股市承压的主要原因是亚洲国家普遍依赖中东原油。彭博经济学显示，中国、印度和印度尼西亚是全球最大的石油进口国。根据高盛的估计，每 20% 的布伦特原油价格上涨将使亚洲企业的盈利下降约 2%。</p>
<p>此外，由于油价上涨迅速反映在汽油和柴油等产品的成本中，而能源消费在消费者物价指数（CPI）中占有较高权重，油价上涨直接推高了整体通胀，从而对亚洲经济造成冲击。</p>
<p>Natixis SA 的亚太首席经济学家 Alicia Garcia-Herrero 指出，日本和韩国的油价压力尤为严重，因其超过 60% 的石油进口必须经过霍尔木兹海峡。</p>
<p>相比之下，美国对中东石油的直接依赖相对有限。作为全球最大的石油生产国，美国的日均原油产量远超传统重磅国家俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯。高产量缓解了中东供应波动带来的干扰。</p>
<p>此外，这一冲击的影响已扩展至运输、建筑、金融和国防等行业。因此，航运保险费飙升，铝和钢等建筑材料的成本上升，国防订单的预期也有所增加。这些因素在亚洲市场的不同领域产生了不同的影响。</p>
<h2>美元霸权回归，击碎亚洲央行降息希望</h2>
<p>在这场冲突中，美国因国内石油自给自足而受到的影响较小，显示出其经济韧性。这增强了全球资本流入美元作为避险资产的动力，成为美元走强的最直接原因。</p>
<p>强势美元压制了亚洲各地的本币：韩元近期首次突破 1500 关口，为 2009 年以来首次。日元作为避险资产，其避险吸引力因过去一年近 5% 的波动性而减弱。再加上能源和通胀风险加剧，日元进一步下跌，跌至每美元 157 的水平。</p>
<p>贬值的汇率限制了当地央行降息的空间。根据彭博汇编的数据，市场对韩国银行在未来 12 个月内累计加息的预期已从约 25 个基点大幅上调至约 50 个基点。此外，疲软的本币也对企业盈利预期造成了压力。</p>
<p>Gama Asset Management 的全球宏观投资组合经理 Rajeev de Mello 表示，货币宽松空间的缩小将抑制股市情绪，因为投资者对新兴市场的过于乐观情绪开始减退。</p>
<h2>“买入亚洲” 的热潮是否已结束？</h2>
<p>Alphinity Investment Management 的客户投资组合经理 Elfreda Jonker 指出，目前日本和韩国股市的急剧回调并非仅由油价上涨引发的能源担忧所致。</p>
<p>年初至今，日经 225 指数上涨了 16%，韩国股市在此次回调前上涨了 40%。Jonker 认为，由于亚洲股市在今年早些时候获得了显著涨幅，导致估值高企和仓位拥挤，因此在冲击来临时变得更加脆弱。</p>
<p>然而，这一下跌并不代表基本面恶化。在韩国股市回调约 20% 后，瑞银将其评级上调至 “吸引”，并指出韩国半导体制造商仍有望实现强劲的盈利增长。瑞银表示，在供应短缺的情况下，DRAM 现货价格预计到 2027 年下半年将接近每 Gb 1.7 美元，支持半导体制造商的盈利。</p>
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<p>亚洲股市因美伊冲突面临抛售，MSCI 亚太指数本周下跌 6%，与标准普尔 500 指数的小幅下跌形成对比。分析师将此归因于亚洲国家对中东石油的依赖，导致成本和通胀上升。受益于国内石油生产的强势美元进一步施压亚洲货币，限制了中央银行降息的选择。尽管近期出现下跌，一些分析师认为基本面依然强劲，特别是在半导体等行业，可能会支持未来的增长</p>

<p>TradingKey - Emerging markets have shone this year: in addition to the South Korean KOSPI index, which surged as much as 40% at one point, Brazil's BVSP index has gained nearly 20% year-to-date, and South Africa's benchmark SAALL index has risen about 10%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingKey - 新兴市场今年表现亮眼：除了曾一度飙升 40% 的韩国 KOSPI 指数外，巴西的 BVSP 指数年初至今上涨近 20%，南非的基准 SAALL 指数也上涨了约 10%。</p>
</div><p>However, since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index has slumped 6% this week, a far greater decline than that of the S&amp;P 500 over the same period, indicating that global capital is accelerating its return to the United States.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，自美国与伊朗冲突爆发以来，MSCI 亚太指数本周下跌了 6%，这一跌幅远大于同期标普 500 指数的跌幅，表明全球资本正在加速回流美国。</p>
</div><p>Has the &#34;Sell US, Buy Asia&#34; trading strategy, which was popular earlier this year, become obsolete? Will the US-Iran conflict completely reverse the strong rally in emerging markets seen in 2026?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年早些时候流行的 “卖出美国，买入亚洲” 交易策略是否已经过时？美国与伊朗的冲突是否会彻底逆转 2026 年新兴市场的强劲反弹？</p>
</div><h2>Crude Oil Surges: Energy Import Dependency Weighs on Asian Equities</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>原油飙升：能源进口依赖压制亚洲股市</h2>
</div><p>Analysts believe the primary reason for the pressure on Asian equities is the widespread dependence of Asian nations on Middle Eastern crude oil. Bloomberg Economics shows that China, India, and Indonesia are among the world's largest oil importers. According to Goldman Sachs estimates, every 20% increase in Brent crude prices drags down Asian corporate earnings by approximately 2%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师认为，亚洲股市承压的主要原因是亚洲国家普遍依赖中东原油。彭博经济学显示，中国、印度和印度尼西亚是全球最大的石油进口国。根据高盛的估计，每 20% 的布伦特原油价格上涨将使亚洲企业的盈利下降约 2%。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, because rising oil prices are quickly reflected in the costs of products like gasoline and diesel—and energy consumption holds a high weighting in the Consumer Price Index (CPI)—higher oil prices directly push up headline inflation, thereby dealing a blow to Asian economies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，由于油价上涨迅速反映在汽油和柴油等产品的成本中，而能源消费在消费者物价指数（CPI）中占有较高权重，油价上涨直接推高了整体通胀，从而对亚洲经济造成冲击。</p>
</div><p>Alicia Garcia-Herrero, Chief Asia-Pacific Economist at Natixis SA, pointed out that Japan and South Korea, where oil pressure is particularly acute, will bear the brunt as more than 60% of their oil imports must pass through the Strait of Hormuz.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Natixis SA 的亚太首席经济学家 Alicia Garcia-Herrero 指出，日本和韩国的油价压力尤为严重，因其超过 60% 的石油进口必须经过霍尔木兹海峡。</p>
</div><p>In contrast, the United States' direct reliance on Middle Eastern oil is quite limited. As the world's largest oil producer, U.S. daily crude output significantly exceeds that of traditional heavyweights Russia and Saudi Arabia. High production levels have mitigated the disruptions caused by supply fluctuations in the Middle East.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相比之下，美国对中东石油的直接依赖相对有限。作为全球最大的石油生产国，美国的日均原油产量远超传统重磅国家俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯。高产量缓解了中东供应波动带来的干扰。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, the impact of this shock has extended beyond energy costs to sectors such as transportation, construction, finance, and defense. Consequently, shipping insurance premiums have soared, the costs of construction materials like aluminum and steel have risen, and expectations for defense orders have increased. These factors have had varying effects across different sectors of Asian markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，这一冲击的影响已扩展至运输、建筑、金融和国防等行业。因此，航运保险费飙升，铝和钢等建筑材料的成本上升，国防订单的预期也有所增加。这些因素在亚洲市场的不同领域产生了不同的影响。</p>
</div><h2>Dollar Hegemony Returns, Shattering Asian Central Banks' Rate-Cut Hopes</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美元霸权回归，击碎亚洲央行降息希望</h2>
</div><p>In this conflict, the United States, benefiting from domestic oil self-sufficiency, has suffered less impact than oil-importing nations, demonstrating its economic resilience. This has strengthened the momentum for global capital to flow into the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, serving as the most direct cause of the greenback's strength.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这场冲突中，美国因国内石油自给自足而受到的影响较小，显示出其经济韧性。这增强了全球资本流入美元作为避险资产的动力，成为美元走强的最直接原因。</p>
</div><p>The stronger dollar has suppressed local currencies across Asia: the Korean Won recently breached the 1,500 level against the dollar for the first time since 2009. The Japanese Yen, also a safe-haven asset, has seen its safe-haven appeal diminish due to excessive volatility following a nearly 5% decline over the past year. Coupled with amplified energy and inflation risks, the Yen fell further, hitting the 157 per dollar level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>强势美元压制了亚洲各地的本币：韩元近期首次突破 1500 关口，为 2009 年以来首次。日元作为避险资产，其避险吸引力因过去一年近 5% 的波动性而减弱。再加上能源和通胀风险加剧，日元进一步下跌，跌至每美元 157 的水平。</p>
</div><p>Depreciating exchange rates have limited the scope for local central banks to cut rates. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, market expectations for cumulative interest rate hikes by the Bank of Korea over the next 12 months have been significantly revised upward from about 25 basis points to approximately 50 basis points. Furthermore, weakening local currencies are also weighing on corporate earnings forecasts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>贬值的汇率限制了当地央行降息的空间。根据彭博汇编的数据，市场对韩国银行在未来 12 个月内累计加息的预期已从约 25 个基点大幅上调至约 50 个基点。此外，疲软的本币也对企业盈利预期造成了压力。</p>
</div><p>Rajeev de Mello, Global Macro Portfolio Manager at Gama Asset Management, stated that the narrowing scope for monetary easing will dampen stock market sentiment, as the previously over-optimistic sentiment among investors regarding emerging markets begins to fade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Gama Asset Management 的全球宏观投资组合经理 Rajeev de Mello 表示，货币宽松空间的缩小将抑制股市情绪，因为投资者对新兴市场的过于乐观情绪开始减退。</p>
</div><h2>Has the &#34;Buy Asia&#34; Craze Come to an End?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>“买入亚洲” 的热潮是否已结束？</h2>
</div><p>Elfreda Jonker, Client Portfolio Manager at Alphinity Investment Management, pointed out that the current sharp pullbacks in Japanese and South Korean stock markets were not solely caused by energy concerns triggered by rising oil prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Alphinity Investment Management 的客户投资组合经理 Elfreda Jonker 指出，目前日本和韩国股市的急剧回调并非仅由油价上涨引发的能源担忧所致。</p>
</div><p>Year-to-date, the Nikkei 225 had risen 16% and Korean stocks had gained 40% before this recent slump. Jonker believes that because Asian equities saw significant gains earlier this year, resulting in high valuations and crowded positioning, they became more vulnerable when the shocks hit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>年初至今，日经 225 指数上涨了 16%，韩国股市在此次回调前上涨了 40%。Jonker 认为，由于亚洲股市在今年早些时候获得了显著涨幅，导致估值高企和仓位拥挤，因此在冲击来临时变得更加脆弱。</p>
</div><p>However, this decline does not represent a deterioration in fundamentals. After a correction of approximately 20% in the South Korean stock market, UBS upgraded its rating to &#34;Attractive,&#34; citing expectations that South Korean semiconductor manufacturers will still achieve strong earnings growth. UBS stated that amid supply shortages, DRAM spot prices are expected to nearly double to $1.7 per Gb by the second half of 2027, supporting the earnings of semiconductor makers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这一下跌并不代表基本面恶化。在韩国股市回调约 20% 后，瑞银将其评级上调至 “吸引”，并指出韩国半导体制造商仍有望实现强劲的盈利增长。瑞银表示，在供应短缺的情况下，DRAM 现货价格预计到 2027 年下半年将接近每 Gb 1.7 美元，支持半导体制造商的盈利。</p>
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<div class="lb-trans"><p>了解更多</p>
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Is the Market No Longer ‘Buying Asia’? Why Asian Stocks Face Selloff Amid US-Iran Conflict While US Stocks Become a Safe Haven?

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市场不再 ‘买入亚洲’ 了吗？为何在美伊冲突期间，亚洲股市遭遇抛售，而美国股市却成为避险天堂？