<p><strong>编译：Hoàng Hà</strong></p>
<p>美国的关税政策和中东冲突迫使物流、纺织、肥料和橡胶等行业的公司加快重组，以保持利润率并在日益增长的风险中寻找机会。</p>
<p>中东地区紧张局势升级，推动油价和运费上涨，同时美国收紧关税政策。</p>
<p>随着中东冲突在最近几天加剧，越南物流企业协会（VLA）启动了一项快速调查，以评估该地区的发展对越南物流公司的影响程度。</p>
<p>该调查对物流公司开放，截止日期为 3 月 9 日，旨在收集关于运营状况、新出现的挑战和政策建议的反馈，因为国际运输市场正经历显著波动。</p>
<p>具体而言，调查关注公司对中东冲突的监测程度以及他们对其运营影响的评估。调查还考察了实际后果，如运费上涨、运输时间延长、货物空间预订困难、集装箱短缺以及与现金流、合同义务和识别替代运输路线相关的风险。</p>
<p>此外，调查记录了公司已经实施的应对措施，包括调整运输路线、改变运输方式、应急规划和加强物流运营中的风险管理。</p>
<p>VLA 秘书长阮德平表示，在这一阶段收集企业信息将为协会提供真实的数据，以评估地缘政治干扰对越南物流行业的影响。</p>
<p>阮平表示：“通过这项调查，协会将整合企业的观点和建议，以便向政府和相关国家机构报告并推荐必要的支持措施。”</p>
<p>根据 VnDirect 证券的分析师，越南大多数航运公司主要在亚内航线运营，鲜有直接服务于冲突地区。因此，尽管地缘政治紧张局势加剧，全球运费上涨可能会使这些公司受益。</p>
<p>对于港口运营商而言，预计影响有限，因为整体货物吞吐量不太可能受到冲突的显著影响。</p>
<p>与此同时，越南外贸银行证券公司（VCBS）的分析师认为，集装箱航运公司可能会因与中东冲突相关的供应链中断而受益。</p>
<p>国际航运公司面临船只短缺，因为船只被迫绕道更长的路线或在主要转运中心滞留。</p>
<p>这减少了运输能力，扰乱了航线，导致港口拥堵并延长船只等待时间，最终推高了集装箱船的时间租船费。</p>
<p><strong>纺织行业</strong></p>
<p>与此同时，对于越南的纺织和服装行业，眼下的主要关注点在于中东冲突和不断变化的美国关税政策。</p>
<p>目前，出口到美国的服装面临 10% 的临时关税和现行的最惠国（MFN）关税，而将临时关税提高至 15% 的可能性仍在考虑之中。</p>
<p>行业专家建议纺织公司优先考虑财务灵活性，加强对汇率和原材料风险的管理，重组供应链，并向更高附加值的生产转型。</p>
<p>在高关税环境下，能够控制成本、确保遵守原产地规则并快速交付订单的公司将可能获得竞争优势。</p>
<p>在越南国家纺织和服装集团（Vinatex）内部研讨会上，讨论 2026 年市场前景时，董事长黎进强强调，2026 年的市场将保持高度不确定，并受到关税变化、地缘政治紧张局势和物流成本上升的影响。</p>
<p>他表示，这种情况将要求该行业在生产和经营中采取主动和灵活的措施，同时根据不同的预测情景制定具体的行动计划。</p>
<p>关于美国市场，黎进强建议会员公司预期买方将继续要求调整价格。</p>
<p>公司还应在额外 10% 关税生效的 150 天内加快向美国的发货，从而优化交货时间表，降低不利政策变化的风险。</p>
<p>对于欧盟市场，公司被敦促准备适当的交货计划，以应对运输路线变化、物流成本上升和运输时间延长的情况。</p>
<p>黎进强表示：“企业必须重新评估原材料需求、定价结构和生产计划。同时，他们还必须加快生产，以抵消更长的运输时间，尽量减少延迟交货和额外成本的风险。”</p>
<p><strong>机会</strong></p>
<p>除了物流和纺织行业，VCBS 的分析师建议，涉及美国 - 以色列和伊朗的冲突可能会给越南某些行业带来积极影响，特别是橡胶和肥料。</p>
<p>在橡胶行业，中东地区日益升级的地缘政治紧张局势推高了油价，令人担忧合成橡胶（天然橡胶的替代品）的生产成本也将上升。</p>
<p>反映这些预期，全球橡胶价格在最近几周显著上涨，接近每吨 2000 美元。因此，橡胶公司的利润率预计将在短期内改善。</p>
<p>对于肥料而言，中东地区约占全球尿素出口的 20-25%，氨出口的 30-35%，以及全球 DAP 和 MAP 出口的 10-15%。</p>
<p>通过霍尔木兹海峡的运输路线中断可能会因此中断全球 15-20% 的肥料供应。</p>
<p>VCBS 分析师指出，如果越南国内天然气输入价格未能与全球市场同步上涨，使用国内天然气的本地尿素生产商，如越南石油公司芹苴肥料（DCM）和越南石油化肥公司（DPM），可能会因出口售价与输入成本之间的差距扩大而改善利润率。</p>
<p>此外，由于这些公司依赖于国内供应的天然气，它们面临的实际供应中断风险有限，主要影响来自价格波动。</p>
<p>在一个日益不确定的全球环境中，受到美国关税政策变化和中东冲突升级的影响，越南各行业的企业被鼓励将风险转化为机会。</p>
<p>提前进行风险预测、灵活规划和加速转型将在决定竞争定位方面发挥关键作用。那些主动重组、有效管理风险并在全球供应链中提升价值链的公司，可能会获得最大的优势。 — VNS</p>

<p>美国的关税政策和中东冲突正在促使物流、纺织、肥料和橡胶等行业的公司进行重组，以维持利润率。越南物流商业协会正在进行一项调查，以评估这些地缘政治紧张局势对物流公司的影响。分析师建议，尽管航运公司可能会因运费上涨而受益，但纺织行业面临潜在关税增加的挑战。然而，橡胶和肥料行业可能会因全球价格上涨而改善利润率。建议公司调整其战略，以有效应对这些不确定性</p>

<p><strong>Compiled by Hoàng Hà</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>编译：Hoàng Hà</strong></p>
</div><p>The US tariff policy and Middle East conflict are forcing companies in logistics, textiles, fertilisers and rubber to accelerate restructuring efforts in order to preserve profit margins and identify opportunities amid growing risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国的关税政策和中东冲突迫使物流、纺织、肥料和橡胶等行业的公司加快重组，以保持利润率并在日益增长的风险中寻找机会。</p>
</div><p>Escalating tensions in the Middle East are pushing up oil prices and freight costs while the United States tightens tariff policies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中东地区紧张局势升级，推动油价和运费上涨，同时美国收紧关税政策。</p>
</div><p>As the conflict in the Middle East has intensified in recent days, the Việt Nam Logistics Business Association (VLA) has launched a rapid survey to assess the extent to which developments in the region are affecting logistics companies in Việt Nam.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着中东冲突在最近几天加剧，越南物流企业协会（VLA）启动了一项快速调查，以评估该地区的发展对越南物流公司的影响程度。</p>
</div><p>The survey, open to logistics firms until March 9, aims to gather feedback on operational conditions, emerging challenges and policy recommendations as international transport markets experience significant volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该调查对物流公司开放，截止日期为 3 月 9 日，旨在收集关于运营状况、新出现的挑战和政策建议的反馈，因为国际运输市场正经历显著波动。</p>
</div><p>Specifically, the survey focuses on how closely companies are monitoring the conflict in the Middle East and how they assess its impact on their operations. It also examines practical consequences such as rising freight costs, longer shipping times, difficulties in booking cargo space, container shortages and risks relating to cash flow, contractual obligations and the ability to identify alternative transport routes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>具体而言，调查关注公司对中东冲突的监测程度以及他们对其运营影响的评估。调查还考察了实际后果，如运费上涨、运输时间延长、货物空间预订困难、集装箱短缺以及与现金流、合同义务和识别替代运输路线相关的风险。</p>
</div><p>In addition, the survey records the response measures companies have already implemented, including adjustments to transport routes, shifts in modes of transport, contingency planning and stronger risk management in logistics operations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，调查记录了公司已经实施的应对措施，包括调整运输路线、改变运输方式、应急规划和加强物流运营中的风险管理。</p>
</div><p>VLA Secretary General Nguyễn Đức Bình said collecting information from businesses at this stage would provide the association with real-world data to assess the impact of geopolitical disruptions on Việt Nam’s logistics sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>VLA 秘书长阮德平表示，在这一阶段收集企业信息将为协会提供真实的数据，以评估地缘政治干扰对越南物流行业的影响。</p>
</div><p>“Through this survey, the association will consolidate the views and proposals of businesses in order to report to and recommend necessary support measures to the Government and relevant state authorities,” said Bình.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阮平表示：“通过这项调查，协会将整合企业的观点和建议，以便向政府和相关国家机构报告并推荐必要的支持措施。”</p>
</div><p>According to analysts at VnDirect Securities, most Vietnamese shipping companies operate primarily on intra-Asia routes and rarely run direct services to conflict zones. As a result, rising global freight rates could benefit these companies despite broader geopolitical tensions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 VnDirect 证券的分析师，越南大多数航运公司主要在亚内航线运营，鲜有直接服务于冲突地区。因此，尽管地缘政治紧张局势加剧，全球运费上涨可能会使这些公司受益。</p>
</div><p>For port operators, the impact is expected to be limited as overall cargo throughput is unlikely to be significantly affected by the conflict.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于港口运营商而言，预计影响有限，因为整体货物吞吐量不太可能受到冲突的显著影响。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, analysts at Vietcombank Securities Company (VCBS) believe container shipping companies may benefit from supply chain disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，越南外贸银行证券公司（VCBS）的分析师认为，集装箱航运公司可能会因与中东冲突相关的供应链中断而受益。</p>
</div><p>International shipping lines are facing vessel shortages as ships are forced to take longer detours or become stranded at major transhipment hubs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国际航运公司面临船只短缺，因为船只被迫绕道更长的路线或在主要转运中心滞留。</p>
</div><p>This reduces shipping capacity, disrupts routes, causes port congestion and extends vessel waiting times, ultimately driving up time-charter rates for container ships.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这减少了运输能力，扰乱了航线，导致港口拥堵并延长船只等待时间，最终推高了集装箱船的时间租船费。</p>
</div><p><strong>Garment sector</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>纺织行业</strong></p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, for Việt Nam’s textile and garment industry, the immediate concern lies in both the Middle East conflict and evolving US tariff policies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，对于越南的纺织和服装行业，眼下的主要关注点在于中东冲突和不断变化的美国关税政策。</p>
</div><p>Garment exports to the US are currently subject to a temporary tariff of 10 per cent and existing Most Favoured Nation (MFN) duties, while the possibility of raising the temporary tariff to 15 per cent remains under consideration.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，出口到美国的服装面临 10% 的临时关税和现行的最惠国（MFN）关税，而将临时关税提高至 15% 的可能性仍在考虑之中。</p>
</div><p>Industry experts advise textile companies to prioritise financial flexibility, strengthen management of exchange rate and raw material risks, restructure supply chains and move towards higher value-added production.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>行业专家建议纺织公司优先考虑财务灵活性，加强对汇率和原材料风险的管理，重组供应链，并向更高附加值的生产转型。</p>
</div><p>In an environment of elevated tariffs, competitive advantages will likely favour companies capable of controlling costs, ensuring compliance with rules of origin and delivering orders quickly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在高关税环境下，能够控制成本、确保遵守原产地规则并快速交付订单的公司将可能获得竞争优势。</p>
</div><p>At an internal seminar of the Việt Nam National Textile and Garment Group (Vinatex) discussing market prospects for March 2026, chairman Lê Tiến Trường emphasised that the market in 2026 would remain highly uncertain and be shaped by tariff changes, geopolitical tensions and rising logistics costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在越南国家纺织和服装集团（Vinatex）内部研讨会上，讨论 2026 年市场前景时，董事长黎进强强调，2026 年的市场将保持高度不确定，并受到关税变化、地缘政治紧张局势和物流成本上升的影响。</p>
</div><p>Such conditions, he said, would require the sector to act proactively and flexibly in production and business while developing specific action programmes based on different forecast scenarios.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他表示，这种情况将要求该行业在生产和经营中采取主动和灵活的措施，同时根据不同的预测情景制定具体的行动计划。</p>
</div><p>Regarding the US market, Trường advised member companies to anticipate continued requests from buyers for price adjustments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于美国市场，黎进强建议会员公司预期买方将继续要求调整价格。</p>
</div><p>Firms should also accelerate shipments to the US during the 150-day period in which the additional 10 per cent tariff is in force, thereby optimising delivery schedules and reducing the risk of unfavourable policy changes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司还应在额外 10% 关税生效的 150 天内加快向美国的发货，从而优化交货时间表，降低不利政策变化的风险。</p>
</div><p>For the European Union market, companies had been urged to prepare appropriate delivery plans in case transport routes change, logistics costs rise and shipping times lengthen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于欧盟市场，公司被敦促准备适当的交货计划，以应对运输路线变化、物流成本上升和运输时间延长的情况。</p>
</div><p>“Businesses must reassess raw material demand, pricing structures and production schedules. While they also must accelerate manufacturing to offset longer shipping times and minimise the risks of late deliveries and additional costs,” Trường said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黎进强表示：“企业必须重新评估原材料需求、定价结构和生产计划。同时，他们还必须加快生产，以抵消更长的运输时间，尽量减少延迟交货和额外成本的风险。”</p>
</div><p><strong>Opportunities</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>机会</strong></p>
</div><p>Beyond logistics and textiles, analysts at VCBS suggest that the conflict involving the US-Israel and Iran could bring positive effects to certain industries in Việt Nam, particularly rubber and fertilisers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了物流和纺织行业，VCBS 的分析师建议，涉及美国 - 以色列和伊朗的冲突可能会给越南某些行业带来积极影响，特别是橡胶和肥料。</p>
</div><p>In the rubber sector, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil prices higher, raising concerns that production costs for synthetic rubber, a substitute for natural rubber, will also increase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在橡胶行业，中东地区日益升级的地缘政治紧张局势推高了油价，令人担忧合成橡胶（天然橡胶的替代品）的生产成本也将上升。</p>
</div><p>Reflecting these expectations, global rubber prices have risen significantly in recent weeks, approaching US$2,000 per tonne. As a result, profit margins for rubber companies are expected to improve in the near term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>反映这些预期，全球橡胶价格在最近几周显著上涨，接近每吨 2000 美元。因此，橡胶公司的利润率预计将在短期内改善。</p>
</div><p>For fertilisers, the Middle East accounts for approximately 20–25 per cent of global urea exports, 30–35 per cent of ammonia exports and about 10–15 per cent of global DAP and MAP exports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于肥料而言，中东地区约占全球尿素出口的 20-25%，氨出口的 30-35%，以及全球 DAP 和 MAP 出口的 10-15%。</p>
</div><p>Disruption to shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz could therefore interrupt 15–20 per cent of the world’s traded fertiliser supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通过霍尔木兹海峡的运输路线中断可能会因此中断全球 15-20% 的肥料供应。</p>
</div><p>VCBS analysts note that if domestic gas input prices in Việt Nam do not rise in line with global markets, local urea producers using domestic gas, such as PetroVietnam Ca Mau Fertiliser (DCM) and PetroVietnam Fertiliser and Chemicals Corporation (DPM), may see improved profit margins thanks to the widening gap between export selling prices and input costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>VCBS 分析师指出，如果越南国内天然气输入价格未能与全球市场同步上涨，使用国内天然气的本地尿素生产商，如越南石油公司芹苴肥料（DCM）和越南石油化肥公司（DPM），可能会因出口售价与输入成本之间的差距扩大而改善利润率。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, as these companies rely on domestically supplied gas, they face limited risk of physical supply disruptions, with most impacts arising instead from price fluctuations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，由于这些公司依赖于国内供应的天然气，它们面临的实际供应中断风险有限，主要影响来自价格波动。</p>
</div><p>In an increasingly uncertain global environment, shaped by shifting US tariff policies and escalating conflict in the Middle East, Vietnamese businesses across these sectors are being encouraged to turn risks into opportunities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在一个日益不确定的全球环境中，受到美国关税政策变化和中东冲突升级的影响，越南各行业的企业被鼓励将风险转化为机会。</p>
</div><p>Early risk forecasting, flexible planning and accelerated transformation will play decisive roles in determining competitive positioning. Companies that proactively restructure, manage risks effectively and move up the value chain in global supply networks are likely to emerge with the greatest advantages. — VNS</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>提前进行风险预测、灵活规划和加速转型将在决定竞争定位方面发挥关键作用。那些主动重组、有效管理风险并在全球供应链中提升价值链的公司，可能会获得最大的优势。 — VNS</p>
</div>

各行业对不断上升的关税和中东地区的冲突作出反应