<p>[新加坡] 周一（3 月 9 日），整个亚洲市场大幅下跌，韩国和日本的指数领跌，投资者对中东冲突加剧和油价上涨的影响感到愈发紧张。</p><p>海峡时报指数（STI）一度下跌 3.1%，随后收窄部分损失，最终下跌 1.9%。吉隆坡综合指数下跌 2.6%，而雅加达证券交易所综合指数在当地时间下午 4 点时下跌 3.3%，泰国的 SET50 指数下跌 2.3%。</p><p>油价突破每桶 100 美元——这是自 2022 年中俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来的最高水平——西德克萨斯中质油上涨 29%，超过 117 美元。布伦特原油也上涨了 28%，达到 118.73 美元，创下近六年来的最大涨幅。</p><p>“地缘政治风险溢价飙升，” OCBC 集团研究首席经济学家 Selena Ling 表示，并补充说冲突的持续时间和任何潜在的稳定措施将是关键。</p><p>由于新加坡作为小型开放的净进口国，暴露于原油和液化天然气价格之中，目前的冲突可能会产生与海湾战争相当的影响，甚至更大。</p><p>“通胀存在明显的上行风险，” Ling 表示。她指出，虽然战争前的基本情况假设油价为 63 美元，但如果持续平均在 92 美元，通胀将推高至 1.8%。</p><p>她警告说，随着价格现在远高于这一水平，如果油价飙升持续，新加坡消费者价格指数甚至可能超过 2%，即使石油的实际权重相对较低。这主要是由于对物流和运输以及其他供应链的连锁反应。</p><p>OCBC 在周一的一份报告中指出，持续的价格压力可能迫使新加坡金融管理局 “早于预期” 收紧货币政策，挑战之前的宽松前景。</p><p>然而，该银行强调，新加坡的财政状况在该地区仍然是 “最灵活” 的，如果成本飙升，仍有充足的空间来部署支持措施，如家庭公用事业补贴。</p><p>新加坡也可能看到一些潜在的好处。由于其安全的 AAA 评级中立和财富中心地位，财富流动正在从中东多样化到新加坡，Ling 表示，预计可再生投资将更大力度推动绿色经济。</p><p>能源公司在周一普遍受益。Rex International 收盘上涨 6.6%，而 RH PetroGas 上涨 28.6%。Geo Energy Resources 开盘上涨 5.4%，但收盘时下跌 2.2%。</p><p>除了能源外，冲突在航空业中也造成了潜在的分歧。虽然新加坡航空周一下跌 2.4%，面临因喷气燃料成本飙升而导致的利润压缩，但 OCBC 认为地面服务商 SATS 可能会受益，尽管其下跌了 3.8%。</p><p>该银行认为，霍尔木兹海峡的封锁可能迫使时间敏感的贸易从海上转向空中，推动航空货运量上升。ST Engineering 等国防公司也预计将受到结构性更高安全支出的支持。</p><p>在亚洲其他地区，香港的恒生指数当天下跌 1.4%，而上海的 CSI 300 收盘下跌 1%。</p><p>日本的日经 225 指数收盘下跌 5.2%，而东证指数下跌 3.8%。韩国的 Kospi 指数暴跌 6%，澳大利亚的 ASX 200 指数当天收盘下跌 2.9%。</p><h2>东南亚影响</h2><p>除了潜在的财富流入外，新加坡还可能受益于更强的货币，而马来西亚的净油出口地位也可能提供一些保护。</p><p>研究公司 BMI 在周五对 24 个新兴市场评估美国 - 以色列 - 伊朗冲突的影响时，给予其第五低的风险评分。其研究考察了各市场因霍尔木兹海峡的有效封闭而导致的贸易中断、贸易条件和外部状况等因素。</p><p>马来西亚等石油出口国可能会 “因天然气价格上涨而获得意外之财，” 报告指出。相反，菲律宾等国最有可能面临货币贬值和国际收支压力。</p><p>中国大陆在风险评分中排名第十，其后是泰国、菲律宾和印度尼西亚。由于泰国的能源赤字高达其国内生产总值的 4%，该国被标记为受影响最大的市场之一。</p><p>OCBC 还指出，政策后果可能对新加坡的邻国造成严重影响。它警告称，如果油价飙升至 140 美元的 “急性” 情景，可能会使该地区的降息计划搁置。相反，菲律宾和印度尼西亚的中央银行可能被迫加息 25 个基点，以捍卫其货币并抑制通胀，风险是经济放缓加剧。</p><p>与此同时，花旗分析师在周一指出，来自中东冲突的油气价格上涨将对大多数亚洲大型经济体造成滞涨冲击。</p><p>最显著的影响将体现在泰国、菲律宾、日本、韩国和印度等地——这些地方 “依赖” 中东原油或液化天然气，且能源进口依赖度最高，花旗表示。同时，像马来西亚和在一定程度上印度尼西亚这样的净能源出口国则 “相对缓冲”。</p><p>德意志银行在周五也指出，尽管大多数亚洲经济体 “已将对伊朗石油的依赖降至微不足道的水平”，但仍然容易受到油价上涨带来的通胀和增长冲击。</p><p>OCBC 在周一表示，亚洲货币也受到影响，并根据其对油价和市场风险的具体暴露情况出现分化。韩元和菲律宾比索似乎最为脆弱，面临来自高能源成本和投资者焦虑的 “双重打击”。同样，印尼卢比也因昂贵的石油进口而受到压制。</p><p>相反，马来西亚林吉特受到该国石油出口的支撑，有助于抵消更广泛的市场波动，而人民币和新加坡元则保持最强韧。</p>

REX国际

富时新加坡海峡时报指数

常青石油天然气

<p>3 月 9 日，亚太市场普遍下跌，海峡时报指数下跌 1.9%，因地缘政治紧张局势导致油价超过每桶 100 美元。分析师警告新加坡面临通胀风险，消费者价格可能上涨超过 2%。像 REX 国际和常青石油天然气这样的能源股票上涨，而航空和其他行业面临挑战。马来西亚可能会受益于更高的天然气价格，而菲律宾等国可能会经历货币压力。形势仍然不稳定，可能对货币政策和区域经济产生影响</p>

<p>[SINGAPORE] Wider Asia markets tumbled on Monday (Mar 9), with South Korean and Japan indices leading losses,as investors grow increasingly nervous about the impact of a widening Middle East conflict and rising oil prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[新加坡] 周一（3 月 9 日），整个亚洲市场大幅下跌，韩国和日本的指数领跌，投资者对中东冲突加剧和油价上涨的影响感到愈发紧张。</p>
</div><p>The Straits Times Index (STI) fell as much as 3.1 per cent before paring some losses to close 1.9 per cent down. The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index was down 2.6 per cent, while the Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index declined3.3 per cent as at 4 pm local time and Thailand’s SET50 index fell 2.3 per cent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>海峡时报指数（STI）一度下跌 3.1%，随后收窄部分损失，最终下跌 1.9%。吉隆坡综合指数下跌 2.6%，而雅加达证券交易所综合指数在当地时间下午 4 点时下跌 3.3%，泰国的 SET50 指数下跌 2.3%。</p>
</div><p>Prices of oil climbed past US$100 a barrel – the highest since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in mid-2022 – as West Texas Intermediate crude oil was up 29 per cent at more than US$117. Brent crude also surged as much as 28 per cent to US$118.73, in what was its biggest jump in nearly six years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油价突破每桶 100 美元——这是自 2022 年中俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来的最高水平——西德克萨斯中质油上涨 29%，超过 117 美元。布伦特原油也上涨了 28%，达到 118.73 美元，创下近六年来的最大涨幅。</p>
</div><p>“The geopolitical risk premiums have spiked,” said Selena Ling, chief economist and head of OCBC Group Research, adding that the duration of the conflict and any potential stabilisation action will be key.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“地缘政治风险溢价飙升，” OCBC 集团研究首席经济学家 Selena Ling 表示，并补充说冲突的持续时间和任何潜在的稳定措施将是关键。</p>
</div><p>With Singapore exposed to crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices as a small open net importer, the current conflict could have as big of an impact as much as the Gulf War did, if not more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于新加坡作为小型开放的净进口国，暴露于原油和液化天然气价格之中，目前的冲突可能会产生与海湾战争相当的影响，甚至更大。</p>
</div><p>“There is definite upside risk to inflation,” said Ling. She noted that while the pre-war base case assumed oil at US$63, a sustained average of US$92 would push inflation to 1.8 per cent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“通胀存在明显的上行风险，” Ling 表示。她指出，虽然战争前的基本情况假设油价为 63 美元，但如果持续平均在 92 美元，通胀将推高至 1.8%。</p>
</div><p>With prices now well above that level, the Singapore consumer price index could even shoot up beyond 2 per cent if the oil price surge is sustained, she warned, even if the weight of physical petroleum is relatively low. This would largely be due to knock-on effects on logistics and transport, as well as other supply chains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>她警告说，随着价格现在远高于这一水平，如果油价飙升持续，新加坡消费者价格指数甚至可能超过 2%，即使石油的实际权重相对较低。这主要是由于对物流和运输以及其他供应链的连锁反应。</p>
</div><p>Sustained price pressure could force the Monetary Authority of Singapore to tighten monetary policy “earlier rather than later”, challenging the previous outlook for easing, OCBC noted in a separate report on Monday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>OCBC 在周一的一份报告中指出，持续的价格压力可能迫使新加坡金融管理局 “早于预期” 收紧货币政策，挑战之前的宽松前景。</p>
</div><p>However, the bank emphasised that Singapore’s fiscal position remains the “most flexible” in the region, with ample room to deploy support measures like utilities rebates for households if costs spiral.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，该银行强调，新加坡的财政状况在该地区仍然是 “最灵活” 的，如果成本飙升，仍有充足的空间来部署支持措施，如家庭公用事业补贴。</p>
</div><p>Singapore could also see some potential benefits. Wealth flows are being diversified from the Middle East to Singapore due to its safe, AAA-rated neutral and wealth hub status, said Ling, with a likely greater push into the green economy by renewable investments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新加坡也可能看到一些潜在的好处。由于其安全的 AAA 评级中立和财富中心地位，财富流动正在从中东多样化到新加坡，Ling 表示，预计可再生投资将更大力度推动绿色经济。</p>
</div><p>Energy players largely enjoyed a booston Monday. Rex International closed 6.6 per cent up, while RH PetroGas surged 28.6 per cent. Geo Energy Resources opened 5.4 per cent higher, but was down 2.2 per cent at close.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>能源公司在周一普遍受益。Rex International 收盘上涨 6.6%，而 RH PetroGas 上涨 28.6%。Geo Energy Resources 开盘上涨 5.4%，但收盘时下跌 2.2%。</p>
</div><p>Beyond energy, the conflict has created a potential divide in the aviation sector. While carriers like Singapore Airlines , which fell 2.4 per cent on Monday, face margin compression from soaring jet fuel costs, OCBC identified ground handler SATS as a potential beneficiary, though it fell 3.8 per cent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了能源外，冲突在航空业中也造成了潜在的分歧。虽然新加坡航空周一下跌 2.4%，面临因喷气燃料成本飙升而导致的利润压缩，但 OCBC 认为地面服务商 SATS 可能会受益，尽管其下跌了 3.8%。</p>
</div><p>The bank argued that a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could force time-sensitive trade to shift from sea to air, driving up air freight volumes. Defence counters like ST Engineering are also expected to see support from structurally higher security spending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该银行认为，霍尔木兹海峡的封锁可能迫使时间敏感的贸易从海上转向空中，推动航空货运量上升。ST Engineering 等国防公司也预计将受到结构性更高安全支出的支持。</p>
</div><p>In the rest of Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 1.4 per cent over the day and the CSI 300 in Shanghai closed 1 per cent lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在亚洲其他地区，香港的恒生指数当天下跌 1.4%，而上海的 CSI 300 收盘下跌 1%。</p>
</div><p>Japan's Nikkei 225 was down 5.2 per cent at close, while the Topix dropped 3.8 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi slumped 6 per cent and Australia’s ASX 200 ended the day 2.9 per cent lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本的日经 225 指数收盘下跌 5.2%，而东证指数下跌 3.8%。韩国的 Kospi 指数暴跌 6%，澳大利亚的 ASX 200 指数当天收盘下跌 2.9%。</p>
</div><h2>South-east Asia impact</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>东南亚影响</h2>
</div><p>Beyond the potential inflow of wealth, Singapore may also benefit from a stronger currency, while Malaysia’s net oil export status could also prove to be some protection.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了潜在的财富流入外，新加坡还可能受益于更强的货币，而马来西亚的净油出口地位也可能提供一些保护。</p>
</div><p>Research firm BMI on Friday gave it the fifth-lowest risk score when measuring the impact of the US-Israel-Iran conflict on 24 emerging markets. Its research examined factors such as each market’s trade disruption due to the effectively shut Strait of Hormuz, terms of trade and external position.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>研究公司 BMI 在周五对 24 个新兴市场评估美国 - 以色列 - 伊朗冲突的影响时，给予其第五低的风险评分。其研究考察了各市场因霍尔木兹海峡的有效封闭而导致的贸易中断、贸易条件和外部状况等因素。</p>
</div><p>Oil exporters such as Malaysia could “receive a windfall from higher gas prices”, said the note. Conversely, countries such as the Philippines are most likely to face downward pressure on their currencies and strains in their balance of payments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>马来西亚等石油出口国可能会 “因天然气价格上涨而获得意外之财，” 报告指出。相反，菲律宾等国最有可能面临货币贬值和国际收支压力。</p>
</div><p>Mainland China was 10th in terms of risk score, followed by Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia. Thailand was flagged as one of the markets with the greatest impact, owing to the country having an energy deficit as large as 4 per cent of its gross domestic product.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国大陆在风险评分中排名第十，其后是泰国、菲律宾和印度尼西亚。由于泰国的能源赤字高达其国内生产总值的 4%，该国被标记为受影响最大的市场之一。</p>
</div><p>OCBC also noted that policy fallout could be severe for Singapore’s neighbours. It warned that an “acute” scenario, where oil spikes towards US$140, would likely take rate cuts off the table for the region. Instead, central banks in the Philippines and Indonesia could be forced to hike rates by 25 basis points to defend their currencies and curb inflation, risking a sharper economic slowdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>OCBC 还指出，政策后果可能对新加坡的邻国造成严重影响。它警告称，如果油价飙升至 140 美元的 “急性” 情景，可能会使该地区的降息计划搁置。相反，菲律宾和印度尼西亚的中央银行可能被迫加息 25 个基点，以捍卫其货币并抑制通胀，风险是经济放缓加剧。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile,Citi analysts on Monday noted that higher oil and gas prices from the Middle East conflict are set to be a stagflationary shock for most of Asia’s large economies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，花旗分析师在周一指出，来自中东冲突的油气价格上涨将对大多数亚洲大型经济体造成滞涨冲击。</p>
</div><p>The most significant hit will be felt in places such as Thailand, the Philippines, Japan, South Korea and India – where there is “dependence” on Middle Eastern crude or liquefied natural gas, and import‑intensive energy mixes are highest, said Citi. At the same time, net energy exporters like Malaysia and, to a degree, Indonesia are “comparatively cushioned”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最显著的影响将体现在泰国、菲律宾、日本、韩国和印度等地——这些地方 “依赖” 中东原油或液化天然气，且能源进口依赖度最高，花旗表示。同时，像马来西亚和在一定程度上印度尼西亚这样的净能源出口国则 “相对缓冲”。</p>
</div><p>Deutsche Bank on Friday also noted that most Asian economies remain vulnerable to both inflation and growth shocks from higher oil prices even though they “have reduced their reliance on Iranian oil to negligible levels”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德意志银行在周五也指出，尽管大多数亚洲经济体 “已将对伊朗石油的依赖降至微不足道的水平”，但仍然容易受到油价上涨带来的通胀和增长冲击。</p>
</div><p>Asian currencies are also affected and are diverging based on their specific exposures to oil prices and market risk, said OCBC on Monday. The South Korean won and Philippine peso appear most vulnerable, facing a “double whammy” from both high energy costs and investor anxiety. Similarly, the Indonesian rupiah is weighed down by expensive oil imports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>OCBC 在周一表示，亚洲货币也受到影响，并根据其对油价和市场风险的具体暴露情况出现分化。韩元和菲律宾比索似乎最为脆弱，面临来自高能源成本和投资者焦虑的 “双重打击”。同样，印尼卢比也因昂贵的石油进口而受到压制。</p>
</div><p>Conversely, the Malaysian ringgit is cushioned by the country’s oil exports, which help offset broader market volatility, while the Chinese yuan and Singapore dollar remain the most resilient.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，马来西亚林吉特受到该国石油出口的支撑，有助于抵消更广泛的市场波动，而人民币和新加坡元则保持最强韧。</p>
</div>

由于油价飙升，富时新加坡海峡时报指数、马来西亚和印度尼西亚的股市下跌；分析师指出这对东南亚的影响