<p>战争导致原油价格飙升，通货膨胀迅速上升。原油价格超过每桶 110 美元，给全球市场带来了冲击，并引发了对能源危机的讨论，这种危机可能与疫情期间的情况相媲美。</p>
<p>《华尔街日报》称之为：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“自 1970 年代以来对能源市场的最严重冲击。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>布伦特原油期货在格林威治标准时间 1339 上涨了 8.77 美元，或 9.46%，至每桶 101.46 美元，而美国西德克萨斯中质油（WTI）期货上涨了 7.92 美元，或 8.71%，至每桶 98.82 美元。布伦特原油早些时候达到每桶 119.50 美元，创下单日最大绝对价格涨幅，而 WTI 则达到每桶 119.48 美元。</p>
<h2>霍尔木兹海峡的关注</h2>
<p>霍尔木兹海峡是市场面临的最重要风险，这条狭窄的水道每天运输约 2000 万桶石油，约占全球原油总量的五分之一，几乎占海运原油的三分之一。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.techi.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/image-57-1200x605.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="605" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.techi.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/image-57-1200x605.jpeg"/></p>
<p>伍德麦肯兹和摩根大通的行业分析师警告称，限制多周的供应将使布伦特原油价格远超 100 美元，迫使海湾生产国减产，这一观点在市场价格中已经部分体现。</p>
<p>能源部长克里斯·赖特试图淡化能源价格长期保持高位的风险。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“你在市场上看到了一些恐慌溢价，但今天世界并不缺油或天然气，”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>赖特先生对 CNN 表示：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>他表示，预计在最坏的情况下，霍尔木兹海峡的航运将受到数周的干扰，而不是数月。</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>全球市场和消费者反应</h2>
<p>东京、首尔等主要市场因对进口能源成本上升的担忧而下跌；暴露于中东的股票和航空公司股票在下跌中处于前沿。</p>
<p>根据 AAA 的数据，美国的汽油平均价格已达到每加仑 3.48 美元。这比 2 月 28 日美国 - 以色列对伊朗的首次攻击以来上涨了近 17%。自 2024 年以来，汽油价格未曾达到如此水平。</p>
<p>这是一场教科书式的地缘政治冲击，石油、天然气和避险资产的波动性非常高。</p>
<h2>接下来会发生什么？</h2>
<p>未来几周的石油趋势不仅取决于头条价格，还取决于实际供需流动的变化：油轮能否安全通过霍尔木兹海峡、替代航线和储存设施的动员速度，以及 OPEC 成员国在稳定市场方面将如何调整生产。</p>
<p>如果海峡重新开放，任何供应中断被证明是暂时的，那么当前的价格飙升可能会迅速减小，风险溢价也会消失。</p>
<p>另一方面，干扰或增加的持续时间可能会巩固更多的价格底线，促使中央银行保持警惕，并将投资引导至传统能源，而不是加速全球社会转向减少石油的使用。</p>

<p>正在进行的战争引发了原油价格的显著上涨，超过每桶 110 美元，标志着自 1970 年代以来最严重的能源市场冲击。布伦特原油期货上涨了 9.46%，达到 101.46 美元，而 WTI 上涨了 8.71%，达到 98.82 美元。霍尔木兹海峡构成了重大风险，分析师警告称，长期的限制可能会将价格推高至 100 美元以上。尽管存在担忧，能源部长克里斯·赖特表示，全球并不缺乏石油。全球市场反应消极，美国汽油价格上涨，主要城市的股市下跌</p>

<p>The war has led to a booming inflation in crude oil prices. Oil spurred to more than $110 per barrel creating shock in the global markets and sparking discussions of an energy shock to rival that of the pandemic period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>战争导致原油价格飙升，通货膨胀迅速上升。原油价格超过每桶 110 美元，给全球市场带来了冲击，并引发了对能源危机的讨论，这种危机可能与疫情期间的情况相媲美。</p>
</div><p>The Wall Street Journal is calling this:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>《华尔街日报》称之为：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“the most severe shock to energy markets since the 1970s.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“自 1970 年代以来对能源市场的最严重冲击。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Brent crude futures rose $8.77, or 9.46%, to $101.46 per barrel at 1339 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose $7.92, or 8.71%, to $98.82. Brent had earlier reached a high of $119.50 per barrel, indicating its largest-ever absolute price increase in a single day, while WTI reached $119.48 per barrel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布伦特原油期货在格林威治标准时间 1339 上涨了 8.77 美元，或 9.46%，至每桶 101.46 美元，而美国西德克萨斯中质油（WTI）期货上涨了 7.92 美元，或 8.71%，至每桶 98.82 美元。布伦特原油早些时候达到每桶 119.50 美元，创下单日最大绝对价格涨幅，而 WTI 则达到每桶 119.48 美元。</p>
</div><h2>Strait of Hormuz in Focus</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>霍尔木兹海峡的关注</h2>
</div><p>The Strait of Hormuz is the most significant market risk that the market is facing, with the narrow water passage taking about 20 million barrels of oil a day, which is approximately one-fifth of the total crude worldwide and almost a third of the seaborne crude.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>霍尔木兹海峡是市场面临的最重要风险，这条狭窄的水道每天运输约 2000 万桶石油，约占全球原油总量的五分之一，几乎占海运原油的三分之一。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.techi.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/image-57-1200x605.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://www.techi.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/image-57-1200x605.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Wood MacKenzie and JPMorgan industry analysts have warned that the restriction of a multi-week would drive Brent far above $100 forcing Gulf producers to cut production, a notion already in part enforced by market prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伍德麦肯兹和摩根大通的行业分析师警告称，限制多周的供应将使布伦特原油价格远超 100 美元，迫使海湾生产国减产，这一观点在市场价格中已经部分体现。</p>
</div><p>Energy Secretary Chris Wright sought to play down the risk that energy prices would remain high for a long time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>能源部长克里斯·赖特试图淡化能源价格长期保持高位的风险。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“You’re seeing a little bit of fear premium in the marketplace, but the world is not short of oil today or natural gas,”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“你在市场上看到了一些恐慌溢价，但今天世界并不缺油或天然气，”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Mr. Wright told CNN:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>赖特先生对 CNN 表示：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>He said he expected shipping through the strait to be disrupted for weeks in the worst-case scenario, not months.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>他表示，预计在最坏的情况下，霍尔木兹海峡的航运将受到数周的干扰，而不是数月。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><h2>Global Markets and Consumers React</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>全球市场和消费者反应</h2>
</div><p>Major centers such as Tokyo, Seoul and other equity markets have been decreasing with concerns on the increasing costs of imported energy; equities exposed to the Middle East and airline stocks have been on the forefront of the decrease.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>东京、首尔等主要市场因对进口能源成本上升的担忧而下跌；暴露于中东的股票和航空公司股票在下跌中处于前沿。</p>
</div><p>The average price of gasoline in the United States has reached $3.48 per gallon, according to AAA data. This represents a nearly 17 % increase since the initial US-Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28. Gas has not been at these levels since 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 AAA 的数据，美国的汽油平均价格已达到每加仑 3.48 美元。这比 2 月 28 日美国 - 以色列对伊朗的首次攻击以来上涨了近 17%。自 2024 年以来，汽油价格未曾达到如此水平。</p>
</div><p>This is a textbook geopolitical shock, and the fact that oil, gas and safe-haven assets are experiencing very high levels of volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是一场教科书式的地缘政治冲击，石油、天然气和避险资产的波动性非常高。</p>
</div><h2>What Happens Next?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>接下来会发生什么？</h2>
</div><p>The future trend of oil in the next weeks will not depend on the headline prices alone but on shifts in the actual supply-demand flows: the ability of the tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz without accidents, the speed of the mobilization of the substitute routes and storage facilities, and the extent to which the members of the OPEC will modify production as the means of stabilizing the markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>未来几周的石油趋势不仅取决于头条价格，还取决于实际供需流动的变化：油轮能否安全通过霍尔木兹海峡、替代航线和储存设施的动员速度，以及 OPEC 成员国在稳定市场方面将如何调整生产。</p>
</div><p>Provided that the strait re-opened, any disruptions of supplies turn out to be temporary, the current spike can quickly shrink, with risk premiums melting away.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果海峡重新开放，任何供应中断被证明是暂时的，那么当前的价格飙升可能会迅速减小，风险溢价也会消失。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, a duration of interruption or increase may entrench more price floors, push central banks to be on alert and channel investment to traditional energy sources instead of hastening the world community to switch to oil lessening.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，干扰或增加的持续时间可能会巩固更多的价格底线，促使中央银行保持警惕，并将投资引导至传统能源，而不是加速全球社会转向减少石油的使用。</p>
</div>

战争引发价格的突然飙升