<p>[伦敦] 在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰使房地产十年的繁荣突然中止五年后，另一个距离约 1600 英里以南的战争现在威胁着投资者一直期待的复苏。</p>
<p>美国和以色列对伊朗的攻击使能源价格飙升，加大了一个对利率极为敏感的行业的风险。持续的冲突意味着更快的通货膨胀将传导至借贷成本。即使在战争爆发之前，尽管有一系列有利因素：直到本月利率逐渐下降；明显的供应短缺；以及普遍上涨的租金，买家似乎对商业地产的投资案例并不感兴趣。</p>
<p>根据普华永道和城市土地研究所于周二（3 月 10 日）发布的一份报告，机构投资者首次降低了对该行业的目标配置，复苏的乐观情绪并未 “与资本承诺相匹配”。</p>
<p>“我们与之交谈的首席执行官和首席投资官们认为，今年终于是反弹的一年，” 城市土地研究所的研究与顾问副总裁西蒙·钦（Simon Chinn）表示。现在 “人们担心复苏就像过去三年一样——总是推迟 3 到 6 个月。”</p>
<p>对于本周在戛纳举行的 Mipim 房地产会议的行业来说，这是一种尴尬的背景，大家都渴望谈论交易的前景。</p>
<p>根据 MSCI 的数据，2025 年最后一个季度完成的欧洲商业房地产交易总额为 715 亿欧元（约合 1058 亿新元），比去年同期下降了 9%。欧洲经济疲软和持续的高借贷成本意味着 2025 年并不是那些 “活到 25” 的标语所承诺的 “丰收年”，根据 MSCI 在 1 月发布的报告。</p>
<p>“这是我们经历过的最长、最糟糕的经济低迷之一，” 海恩斯（Hines）全球首席投资官大卫·斯坦巴赫（David Steinbach）表示。“在持续的时间上，它比 08 年更糟。”</p>
<p>新年开始时，市场上出现了乐观的迹象，似乎更大的交易可能在持续的停滞后重现。布鲁克菲尔德（Brookfield）为位于伦敦金融区的负债累累的 CityPoint 办公楼找到了买家，该楼在过去几年中多次尝试出售。但谈判随后破裂，使得这座大楼再次回到了寻找买家的奖杯物业名单上。</p>
<p>德文特伦敦（Derwent London）在 8 月以约 3 亿英镑（约合 5.137 亿新元）出售位于帕丁顿区的布鲁内尔大楼，但迄今尚未达成交易。</p>
<p>“我们希望确保如果我们出售它，能够获得一个好价格，” 首席执行官保罗·威廉姆斯（Paul Williams）表示。</p>
<p>那些仍在进行的交易在法国里维埃拉面临紧张的一周，买家可能会寻求重新谈判价格，以补偿不确定性增加和潜在的更高借贷成本。卖家面临的选择是坚持希望战争迅速结束，复苏回到正轨，还是接受折扣以避免情况恶化的风险。</p>
<p>尽管关于空置率和租金增长的数据越来越令人鼓舞，但经济低迷持续的部分原因是缺乏大型交易，这意味着基金经理向投资者返还的现金减少。这反过来影响了他们向新基金承诺资本的能力，即使他们有意重新进入房地产市场。</p>
<p>根据 Preqin 的数据，2025 年下半年为投资欧洲房地产筹集的资本约为 54 亿美元，较 2024 年中期以来逐渐恢复的趋势出现了急剧逆转。</p>
<p>对于那些拥有资本的人来说，高度不稳定的地缘政治环境也在重新塑造关于最佳投资部署地点的讨论。一个关键问题是他们在多大程度上重新考虑对美国的投资。</p>
<p>“投资者正在谈论更多的本地投资，大家都在更靠近家乡的地方待着，” 海恩斯的斯坦巴赫表示。虽然目前还没有太多证据表明有重大转变，“加拿大人是关键，他们正在向欧洲投入新的边际美元，” 他说。</p>
<p>这一讨论将在本周加剧，至少对于那些能够顺利前往法国南部的人来说。由于冲突的扩大，旅行中断引发了全球一些最大的房地产投资者的出席问题，他们主要位于中东。</p>
<p>阿布扎比投资局的代表拒绝置评，而沙特阿拉伯公共投资基金和卡塔尔投资局则未对有关他们出席的问题作出回应。</p>
<p>“在我们期待欢迎全球房地产界人士来到戛纳时，我们的思念与中东的朋友和同事同在，” Mipim 总监尼古拉斯·博菲（Nicolas Boffi）表示。“我们正在密切关注该地区不断变化的局势，并与我们的客户和合作伙伴保持对话。”</p>
<p>随着战争进入第二周，目前评估对一个通常需要数月或数年才能对事件做出调整的资产类别的影响仍然为时尚早。但上市房地产公司的股价确实提供了交易者预期的早期迹象。</p>
<p>自战争爆发以来，FTSE 350 房地产投资信托指数下跌超过 10%，本周初的抛售加速。</p>
<p>公共市场首先反应，随后再提问，格林街（Green Street）欧洲及亚太区研究负责人彼得·帕帕达科斯（Peter Papadakos）表示。</p>
<p>“这并不是说公共市场在拐点上更常正确，” 他在一封电子邮件中写道。“它确实如此。在这方面，私营投资者今天应该比十天前更担心未来 ‘26 年房地产价格的方向，毫无疑问。” BLOOMBERG</p>

<p>正在进行的伊朗冲突正在危及房地产市场的预期复苏，该市场自乌克兰战争以来一直处于挣扎之中。能源价格上涨和通货膨胀正在影响借贷成本，导致机构投资者自 2012 年以来首次减少对商业地产的配置。尽管最初对反弹持乐观态度，但市场依然停滞，重大交易未能落实。即将在戛纳举行的 Mipim 房地产会议面临不确定性，因为地缘政治紧张局势可能影响与会人数和投资策略</p>

<p>[LONDON] Five years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine brought real estate’s decade-long party to a sudden halt, another war about 1,600 miles south is now threatening to choke off the recovery investors have been anticipating ever since.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[伦敦] 在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰使房地产十年的繁荣突然中止五年后，另一个距离约 1600 英里以南的战争现在威胁着投资者一直期待的复苏。</p>
</div><p>The US and Israel’s attack on Iran has sent energy prices soaring, heightening risks for an industry where valuations are hypersensitive to interest rates. A sustained conflict means faster inflation feeding through to borrowing costs. Even before the war broke out, buyers appeared unmoved by the investment case for commercial property despite a combination of tailwinds: rates that until this month had gradually been dwindling; a clear lack of supply; and, rents that are broadly on the rise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国和以色列对伊朗的攻击使能源价格飙升，加大了一个对利率极为敏感的行业的风险。持续的冲突意味着更快的通货膨胀将传导至借贷成本。即使在战争爆发之前，尽管有一系列有利因素：直到本月利率逐渐下降；明显的供应短缺；以及普遍上涨的租金，买家似乎对商业地产的投资案例并不感兴趣。</p>
</div><p>Institutional investors have reduced their target allocations to the sector for the first time since 2012, with optimism around a recovery not “matched by capital commitments,” according to a report published on Tuesday (Mar 10) by PwC and the Urban Land Institute.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据普华永道和城市土地研究所于周二（3 月 10 日）发布的一份报告，机构投资者首次降低了对该行业的目标配置，复苏的乐观情绪并未 “与资本承诺相匹配”。</p>
</div><p>“There was a view among the CEOs and chief investment officers that we spoke to that this is finally the year where we’re on the rebound,” said Simon Chinn, vice-president in research and advisory at the ULI. Now “there is a concern that the recovery is just like it has been for the last three years – always 3-to-6 months off.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们与之交谈的首席执行官和首席投资官们认为，今年终于是反弹的一年，” 城市土地研究所的研究与顾问副总裁西蒙·钦（Simon Chinn）表示。现在 “人们担心复苏就像过去三年一样——总是推迟 3 到 6 个月。”</p>
</div><p>It is an awkward backdrop for an industry that this week is descending on Cannes for the Mipim property conference and eager to talk up the prospects for dealmaking.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于本周在戛纳举行的 Mipim 房地产会议的行业来说，这是一种尴尬的背景，大家都渴望谈论交易的前景。</p>
</div><p>Some 71.5 billion euros (S$105.8 billion) of European commercial real estate transactions were completed in the final quarter of 2025, down 9 per cent from the same period a year earlier, MSCI data show. Weaker European economies and sustained high borrowing costs meant 2025 was not “the vintage year promised by those “Survive ‘til 25” bumper stickers,” according to an MSCI report published in January.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 MSCI 的数据，2025 年最后一个季度完成的欧洲商业房地产交易总额为 715 亿欧元（约合 1058 亿新元），比去年同期下降了 9%。欧洲经济疲软和持续的高借贷成本意味着 2025 年并不是那些 “活到 25” 的标语所承诺的 “丰收年”，根据 MSCI 在 1 月发布的报告。</p>
</div><p>“This is one of the longest, worst downturns we have had,” said David Steinbach, global chief investment officer at Hines. “It is worse than ‘08 in terms of how long it has gone on.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这是我们经历过的最长、最糟糕的经济低迷之一，” 海恩斯（Hines）全球首席投资官大卫·斯坦巴赫（David Steinbach）表示。“在持续的时间上，它比 08 年更糟。”</p>
</div><p>The year started with signs of optimism that bigger deals might be back on the horizon after a sustained hiatus. Brookfield found a buyer for CityPoint, the debt-laden office building in London’s financial district it has repeatedly attempted to offload in recent years. But the talks have since broken down, putting the tower back on the list of trophy properties looking for a buyer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新年开始时，市场上出现了乐观的迹象，似乎更大的交易可能在持续的停滞后重现。布鲁克菲尔德（Brookfield）为位于伦敦金融区的负债累累的 CityPoint 办公楼找到了买家，该楼在过去几年中多次尝试出售。但谈判随后破裂，使得这座大楼再次回到了寻找买家的奖杯物业名单上。</p>
</div><p>Derwent London offered the Brunel Building in the city’s Paddington district for sale for about £300 million (S$513.7 million) in August but so far has yet to agree a deal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德文特伦敦（Derwent London）在 8 月以约 3 亿英镑（约合 5.137 亿新元）出售位于帕丁顿区的布鲁内尔大楼，但迄今尚未达成交易。</p>
</div><p>“We would want to make sure that if we were to sell it, we get a good price,” chief executive officer Paul Williams said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们希望确保如果我们出售它，能够获得一个好价格，” 首席执行官保罗·威廉姆斯（Paul Williams）表示。</p>
</div><p>Those deals that are still on track face a nervous week on the French Riviera with the prospect that buyers seek to renegotiate prices lower to compensate for increased uncertainty and potentially higher borrowing costs. Sellers face the choice of holding out in the hope the war wraps up quickly and the recovery gets back on track, or accepting a discount to head off the risk things get worse.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那些仍在进行的交易在法国里维埃拉面临紧张的一周，买家可能会寻求重新谈判价格，以补偿不确定性增加和潜在的更高借贷成本。卖家面临的选择是坚持希望战争迅速结束，复苏回到正轨，还是接受折扣以避免情况恶化的风险。</p>
</div><p>Part of the reason the downturn has been so drawn out, despite increasingly encouraging data on vacancies and rent growth, is that the lack of large deals has meant less cash is returned by fund managers to their investors. That in turn impacts their ability to commit capital to new funds, even if they’re inclined to get back into real estate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管关于空置率和租金增长的数据越来越令人鼓舞，但经济低迷持续的部分原因是缺乏大型交易，这意味着基金经理向投资者返还的现金减少。这反过来影响了他们向新基金承诺资本的能力，即使他们有意重新进入房地产市场。</p>
</div><p>About US$5.4 billion of capital was raised for investment in European real estate in the second half of 2025, a sharp reversal of the gradual recovery that had been building since its nadir in mid-2024, according to Preqin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Preqin 的数据，2025 年下半年为投资欧洲房地产筹集的资本约为 54 亿美元，较 2024 年中期以来逐渐恢复的趋势出现了急剧逆转。</p>
</div><p>For those that do have capital, the highly volatile geopolitical environment is also reshaping debates about where best to deploy it. A key question is the extent to which they rethink investments in the US.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于那些拥有资本的人来说，高度不稳定的地缘政治环境也在重新塑造关于最佳投资部署地点的讨论。一个关键问题是他们在多大程度上重新考虑对美国的投资。</p>
</div><p>“Investors are talking about much more backyard investing, everyone has been staying much closer to home,” Hines’ Steinbach said. While there’s yet to be much evidence of any major shift, “Canadians are the swing and they were putting new marginal US dollars in Europe,” he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“投资者正在谈论更多的本地投资，大家都在更靠近家乡的地方待着，” 海恩斯的斯坦巴赫表示。虽然目前还没有太多证据表明有重大转变，“加拿大人是关键，他们正在向欧洲投入新的边际美元，” 他说。</p>
</div><p>That debate will intensify this week, at least for those able to navigate their way to the south of France. Travel disruption caused by the widening conflict raises questions about the attendance of some of the largest real estate investors globally, who are based in the Middle East.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一讨论将在本周加剧，至少对于那些能够顺利前往法国南部的人来说。由于冲突的扩大，旅行中断引发了全球一些最大的房地产投资者的出席问题，他们主要位于中东。</p>
</div><p>A representative for the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority declined to comment while Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund and the Qatar Investment Authority did not respond to questions concerning their attendance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿布扎比投资局的代表拒绝置评，而沙特阿拉伯公共投资基金和卡塔尔投资局则未对有关他们出席的问题作出回应。</p>
</div><p>“As we look forward to welcoming the global real estate community to Cannes, our thoughts are with our friends and colleagues across the Middle East,” Mipim director Nicolas Boffi said. “We are closely monitoring the evolving situation in the region and remain in dialogue with our clients and partners.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在我们期待欢迎全球房地产界人士来到戛纳时，我们的思念与中东的朋友和同事同在，” Mipim 总监尼古拉斯·博菲（Nicolas Boffi）表示。“我们正在密切关注该地区不断变化的局势，并与我们的客户和合作伙伴保持对话。”</p>
</div><p>With the war in its second week, it remains extremely early to assess the impact on an asset class where values typically take months or years to adjust to events. But the share prices of publicly traded real estate companies do provide an early indication of traders’ expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着战争进入第二周，目前评估对一个通常需要数月或数年才能对事件做出调整的资产类别的影响仍然为时尚早。但上市房地产公司的股价确实提供了交易者预期的早期迹象。</p>
</div><p>The FTSE 350 Real estate investment trust index is down more than 10 per cent since the war broke out, with the sell-off accelerating at the start of this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自战争爆发以来，FTSE 350 房地产投资信托指数下跌超过 10%，本周初的抛售加速。</p>
</div><p>Public markets move first and ask questions later, according to Peter Papadakos, head of research for Europe and APAC at Green Street.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公共市场首先反应，随后再提问，格林街（Green Street）欧洲及亚太区研究负责人彼得·帕帕达科斯（Peter Papadakos）表示。</p>
</div><p>“That’s not to say that the public market doesn’t get inflection points right more often than not,” he wrote in an email. “It certainly does so. In that regard, private investors should be more worried about the direction of property prices for the rest of ‘26 today than ten days ago, no question about that.” BLOOMBERG</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这并不是说公共市场在拐点上更常正确，” 他在一封电子邮件中写道。“它确实如此。在这方面，私营投资者今天应该比十天前更担心未来 ‘26 年房地产价格的方向，毫无疑问。” BLOOMBERG</p>
</div>

伊朗的冲击颠覆了房地产市场长期以来预期的复苏