<p>今年本应是个人电脑市场的一个巨大顺风期。Windows 10 将在 2025 年底停止支持，这意味着全球约有 10 亿台个人电脑将停止接收安全更新。这在消费级个人电脑市场问题不大，但在商业级个人电脑市场则是个大问题。</p><p>像 <strong>HP</strong>（HPQ 2.65%）这样的个人电脑原始设备制造商在 2026 年本应迎来成功，但人工智能的繁荣使情况变得复杂。来自人工智能基础设施建设对 DRAM 和 NAND 芯片的巨大需求，加上 内存芯片制造商 将生产转向服务器产品，导致个人电脑市场只剩下残羹冷炙。内存芯片价格飙升，推高了材料成本，迫使价格上涨。</p><p><strong>Gartner</strong> 预计今年个人电脑价格将上涨 17%，促使消费者和企业更长时间地保留现有个人电脑。预算型个人电脑这一类别可能会基本消失，导致大量消费者陷入困境。Gartner 预计 2026 年个人电脑出货量将下降 10.4%。</p><p>在这种情况下，HP 显然是一个输家，但还有一个令人惊讶的赢家：<strong>Apple</strong>（AAPL +0.94%）。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/f735a29f82c3427372ada124a932cdee?x-oss-process=style/lg" width="2023" height="1481" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/f735a29f82c3427372ada124a932cdee"/></figure><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p><h2 id="43n70qim8">HP 将受到严重打击</h2><p>内存价格上涨的速度有多快？HP 在 2 月份披露，内存和存储预计将在今年占其个人电脑材料成本的约 35%。而在上一季度，这一比例为 15% 至 18%。</p><p>HP 能做的事情不多来缓解内存价格上涨。长期供应协议可能会有所帮助，但如果内存价格回落，HP 将承担风险。减少内存和存储内容的个人电脑出货是保持价格低廉的一个选择。HP 也可以接受较低的利润率以保护其市场份额。</p><p>扩展</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/3f14c97f41cd00ae3674578532ce8ae4?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="HP 股票报价" width="80" height="80" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/3f14c97f41cd00ae3674578532ce8ae4"/></figure><h2 id="lafsgq6vv">NYSE: HPQ</h2><p>HP</p><p>今日变动</p><p>(-2.65%) $-0.52</p><p>当前价格</p><p>$18.95</p><h3 id="pligd2l68">关键数据点</h3><p>市值</p><p>$170 亿</p><p>日内区间</p><p>$18.50 - $19.15</p><p>52 周区间</p><p>$17.56 - $29.89</p><p>成交量</p><p>76 万</p><p>平均成交量</p><p>1800 万</p><p>毛利率</p><p>19.91%</p><p>股息收益率</p><p>6.17%</p><p>在 2026 财年第一季度，HP 的个人系统收入同比增长 11%，但运营利润率较上一季度略有下降。如果价格上涨抵消销量下降，HP 的个人电脑收入在 2026 年仍有可能增长，但输入成本的巨大飙升将打击盈利能力。公司预计其个人电脑运营利润率将在今年剩余时间内低于长期目标。</p><p>与其他同时销售个人电脑和服务器的公司不同，HP 没有任何能够从人工智能繁荣中受益的有意义的业务。对于 HP 而言，人工智能基础设施的需求飙升完全是负面影响。</p><h2 id="tfqk9xcp11">Apple 如何获胜</h2><p>Apple 在其整个设备业务中也面临内存芯片价格上涨的压力。然而，该公司正在抓住机会，将 Windows 个人电脑用户引入其生态系统。</p><p>Apple 上周宣布了 MacBook Neo。这款 13 英寸入门级 MacBook 起价为$599，随着内存价格飙升，像 HP 这样的个人电脑原始设备制造商将很难达到这个价格。Neo 搭载 A18 Pro 芯片，与 iPhone 16 Pro 系列使用的 SoC 相同。高端 MacBook 使用 Apple 的 M 系列芯片，但底层技术基本相同。</p><p>Apple 为 Neo 配备了 8GB 的统一内存，CPU 和 GPU 共享，以及 256GB 的固态硬盘。这些实际上是可用个人电脑的最低配置，但足以提供良好的入门级体验。早期评测反响积极，尽管在发布前尚未到来完整的第三方评测。</p><p>Apple 在这里玩的是长期游戏。如果有任何时候推出预算型 MacBook，那就是现在。随着内存价格推高 Windows 个人电脑的成本，$599 的 MacBook 应该对预算有限的消费者具有吸引力。Apple 还以$499 的折扣价格向教育市场提供 Neo。</p><p>如果 Apple 能够扩大其 Mac 用户基础，并从基于 Windows 的个人电脑中抢占市场份额，该公司将为未来的 Mac 业务更强劲的增长奠定基础。一旦内存情况正常化，宏观经济环境改善，Apple 将拥有更大的 Mac 用户基础，期待在适当时机进行升级。</p><p>扩展</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/0053296b4c38aea2f1f918001402361f?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="Apple 股票报价" width="80" height="80" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/0053296b4c38aea2f1f918001402361f"/></figure><h2 id="cdlbmav1f">NASDAQ: AAPL</h2><p>Apple</p><p>今日变动</p><p>(0.94%) $2.42</p><p>当前价格</p><p>$259.88</p><h3 id="r9kluaxt">关键数据点</h3><p>市值</p><p>$3.8 万亿</p><p>日内区间</p><p>$253.68 - $261.15</p><p>52 周区间</p><p>$169.21 - $288.62</p><p>成交量</p><p>34K</p><p>平均成交量</p><p>4800 万</p><p>毛利率</p><p>47.33%</p><p>股息收益率</p><p>0.40%</p><h2 id="dqbkor0qk">对 Apple 并非全是好消息</h2><p>虽然 Apple 在内存紧缺的情况下可能赢得个人电脑市场份额，但该公司也必须吸收其 iPhone、iPad 和其他设备的内存价格上涨。Apple 当然拥有一定的定价权，但用户总是可以推迟升级。如今，年度 iPhone 升级 大多是渐进式的，因此升级周期可能会被拉长。</p><p>总体而言，内存芯片短缺在短期内可能对 Apple 产生负面影响。然而，该公司在 MacBook Neo 方面表现积极，并为未来几年更强大的 Mac 业务奠定了基础。</p>

苹果

标普半导体 ETF - SPDR

惠普

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

费城交易所 半导体 ETF - iShares

半导体 ETF - VanEck Vectors

AAPX

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

苹果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

<p>个人电脑市场面临由于内存芯片价格上涨而带来的挑战，Gartner 预测到 2026 年价格将上涨 17%，出货量将下降 10.4%。惠普预计将因内存成本上升而面临困难，影响其盈利能力。相比之下，苹果可能会从这一情况中受益，推出价格为 599 美元的经济型 MacBook Neo，吸引寻求实惠选择的消费者。尽管苹果也面临更高的内存成本，但其策略可能有助于从 Windows PC 中抢占市场份额，为其 Mac 业务的未来增长奠定基础</p>

<p>There was supposed to be a massive tailwind for the PC market this year. Windows 10 reached end-of-life in late 2025, meaning that somewhere around 1 billion PCs worldwide stopped receiving security updates. This is less of an issue in the consumer PC market, but it's a big deal in the business PC market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年本应是个人电脑市场的一个巨大顺风期。Windows 10 将在 2025 年底停止支持，这意味着全球约有 10 亿台个人电脑将停止接收安全更新。这在消费级个人电脑市场问题不大，但在商业级个人电脑市场则是个大问题。</p>
</div><p>PC OEMs like <strong>HP</strong>( HPQ 2.65%) were set up for success in 2026, but the AI boom has complicated the situation. Enormous demand for DRAM and NAND chips from the AI infrastructure build-out, coupled with memory chip manufacturers shifting production to server products, has left the PC market with scraps. Memory chip prices have surged, pushing up the bill of materials and forcing price increases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>像 <strong>HP</strong>（HPQ 2.65%）这样的个人电脑原始设备制造商在 2026 年本应迎来成功，但人工智能的繁荣使情况变得复杂。来自人工智能基础设施建设对 DRAM 和 NAND 芯片的巨大需求，加上 内存芯片制造商 将生产转向服务器产品，导致个人电脑市场只剩下残羹冷炙。内存芯片价格飙升，推高了材料成本，迫使价格上涨。</p>
</div><p><strong>Gartner</strong> expects PC prices to surge by 17% this year, prompting consumers and businesses to hold onto their current PCs for longer. Budget PCs as a category could essentially disappear, leaving a large swath of consumers in a bind. Gartner expects PC shipments to tumble by 10.4% in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Gartner</strong> 预计今年个人电脑价格将上涨 17%，促使消费者和企业更长时间地保留现有个人电脑。预算型个人电脑这一类别可能会基本消失，导致大量消费者陷入困境。Gartner 预计 2026 年个人电脑出货量将下降 10.4%。</p>
</div><p>HP is an obvious loser in this scenario, but there's a surprising winner as well: <strong>Apple</strong>( AAPL +0.94%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种情况下，HP 显然是一个输家，但还有一个令人惊讶的赢家：<strong>Apple</strong>（AAPL +0.94%）。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NjAwMDcvZ2V0dHktd2lubmVycy1sb3NlcnMtYXJyb3dzLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA" alt="Two arrows labeled loser and winner." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F860007%2Fgetty-winners-losers-arrows.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>HP will get hit hard</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>HP 将受到严重打击</h2>
</div><p>How fast are memory prices rising? HP disclosed in February that memory and storage are expected to account for roughly 35% of its PC bill of materials this year. That's up from 15% to 18% in the previous quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>内存价格上涨的速度有多快？HP 在 2 月份披露，内存和存储预计将在今年占其个人电脑材料成本的约 35%。而在上一季度，这一比例为 15% 至 18%。</p>
</div><p>There's not a ton HP can do to mitigate rising memory prices. Long-term supply agreements could help, but they'll leave HP on the hook if memory prices reverse. Shipping PCs with less memory and storage content is an option to keep prices down. HP could also accept lower profit margins to protect its market share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>HP 能做的事情不多来缓解内存价格上涨。长期供应协议可能会有所帮助，但如果内存价格回落，HP 将承担风险。减少内存和存储内容的个人电脑出货是保持价格低廉的一个选择。HP 也可以接受较低的利润率以保护其市场份额。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>扩展</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL0hQUS5wbmcmdz0xMjg" alt="HP Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FHPQ.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NYSE: HPQ</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NYSE: HPQ</h2>
</div><p>HP</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>HP</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日变动</p>
</div><p>(-2.65%) $-0.52</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(-2.65%) $-0.52</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前价格</p>
</div><p>$18.95</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$18.95</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>关键数据点</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$17B</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$170 亿</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日内区间</p>
</div><p>$18.50 - $19.15</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$18.50 - $19.15</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周区间</p>
</div><p>$17.56 - $29.89</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$17.56 - $29.89</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>760K</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>76 万</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>18M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1800 万</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>19.91%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>19.91%</p>
</div><p>Dividend Yield</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股息收益率</p>
</div><p>6.17%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>6.17%</p>
</div><p>Personal Systems revenue rose 11% year over year for HP in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, but operating margin declined a bit from the previous quarter. HP's PC revenue could still grow in 2026 if price increases offset volume declines, but the huge surge in input costs will knock down profitability. The company expects its PC operating margins to be below its long-term target for the rest of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2026 财年第一季度，HP 的个人系统收入同比增长 11%，但运营利润率较上一季度略有下降。如果价格上涨抵消销量下降，HP 的个人电脑收入在 2026 年仍有可能增长，但输入成本的巨大飙升将打击盈利能力。公司预计其个人电脑运营利润率将在今年剩余时间内低于长期目标。</p>
</div><p>HP has no meaningful business that will benefit from the AI boom, unlike other companies that sell both PCs and servers. For HP, soaring demand for AI infrastructure is all downside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与其他同时销售个人电脑和服务器的公司不同，HP 没有任何能够从人工智能繁荣中受益的有意义的业务。对于 HP 而言，人工智能基础设施的需求飙升完全是负面影响。</p>
</div><h2>How Apple could win</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Apple 如何获胜</h2>
</div><p>Apple is also exposed to rising memory chip prices across its entire device business. However, the company is seizing an opportunity to bring Windows PC users into its ecosystem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Apple 在其整个设备业务中也面临内存芯片价格上涨的压力。然而，该公司正在抓住机会，将 Windows 个人电脑用户引入其生态系统。</p>
</div><p>Apple announced the MacBook Neo last week. The 13-inch entry-level MacBook starts at $599, a price that PC OEMs like HP will have trouble hitting as memory prices spiral higher. The Neo is powered by the A18 Pro chip, the same SoC used in the iPhone 16 Pro family. Higher-end MacBooks use Apple's M-series chips, but the underlying technology is essentially the same.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Apple 上周宣布了 MacBook Neo。这款 13 英寸入门级 MacBook 起价为$599，随着内存价格飙升，像 HP 这样的个人电脑原始设备制造商将很难达到这个价格。Neo 搭载 A18 Pro 芯片，与 iPhone 16 Pro 系列使用的 SoC 相同。高端 MacBook 使用 Apple 的 M 系列芯片，但底层技术基本相同。</p>
</div><p>Apple has equipped the Neo with 8GB of unified RAM, shared between the CPU and GPU, as well as a 256GB solid-state drive. These are really the bare minimums for a usable PC, but it's enough for a solid entry-level experience. Early reviews have been positive, although full third-party reviews haven't yet arrived ahead of launch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Apple 为 Neo 配备了 8GB 的统一内存，CPU 和 GPU 共享，以及 256GB 的固态硬盘。这些实际上是可用个人电脑的最低配置，但足以提供良好的入门级体验。早期评测反响积极，尽管在发布前尚未到来完整的第三方评测。</p>
</div><p>Apple is playing the long game here. If there was ever a time to launch a budget MacBook, it's right now. With memory prices driving up the cost of Windows PCs, a $599 MacBook should be appealing to budget-conscious consumers. Apple also offers the Neo to the education market for a discounted price of $499.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Apple 在这里玩的是长期游戏。如果有任何时候推出预算型 MacBook，那就是现在。随着内存价格推高 Windows 个人电脑的成本，$599 的 MacBook 应该对预算有限的消费者具有吸引力。Apple 还以$499 的折扣价格向教育市场提供 Neo。</p>
</div><p>If Apple can grow its Mac install base and steal away market share from Windows-based PCs, the company will be setting up its Mac business for stronger growth down the road. Once the memory situation normalizes and the macroeconomic environment improves, Apple will have a larger base of Mac users eager to upgrade when the time comes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果 Apple 能够扩大其 Mac 用户基础，并从基于 Windows 的个人电脑中抢占市场份额，该公司将为未来的 Mac 业务更强劲的增长奠定基础。一旦内存情况正常化，宏观经济环境改善，Apple 将拥有更大的 Mac 用户基础，期待在适当时机进行升级。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>扩展</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL0FBUEwucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="Apple Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FAAPL.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: AAPL</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: AAPL</h2>
</div><p>Apple</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Apple</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日变动</p>
</div><p>(0.94%) $2.42</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(0.94%) $2.42</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前价格</p>
</div><p>$259.88</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$259.88</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>关键数据点</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$3.8T</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$3.8 万亿</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日内区间</p>
</div><p>$253.68 - $261.15</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$253.68 - $261.15</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周区间</p>
</div><p>$169.21 - $288.62</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$169.21 - $288.62</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>34K</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>34K</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>48M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>4800 万</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>47.33%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>47.33%</p>
</div><p>Dividend Yield</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股息收益率</p>
</div><p>0.40%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>0.40%</p>
</div><h2>Not all good news for Apple</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>对 Apple 并非全是好消息</h2>
</div><p>While Apple could win market share in the PC business amid the memory crunch, the company will also have to absorb higher memory prices for its iPhone, iPad, and other devices. Apple certainly has some pricing power, but users can always delay upgrades. Annual iPhone upgrades are largely incremental these days, so the upgrade cycle could get stretched out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然 Apple 在内存紧缺的情况下可能赢得个人电脑市场份额，但该公司也必须吸收其 iPhone、iPad 和其他设备的内存价格上涨。Apple 当然拥有一定的定价权，但用户总是可以推迟升级。如今，年度 iPhone 升级 大多是渐进式的，因此升级周期可能会被拉长。</p>
</div><p>Overall, the memory chip shortage may be a negative for Apple in the near term. However, the company is being aggressive with the MacBook Neo, and it's laying the foundation for a stronger Mac business in the years ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体而言，内存芯片短缺在短期内可能对 Apple 产生负面影响。然而，该公司在 MacBook Neo 方面表现积极，并为未来几年更强大的 Mac 业务奠定了基础。</p>
</div>

The PC Collapse Has a Winner -- and It's Not Who You Think

- 2026 年，PC 市场因内存价格上涨而面临挑战，预计出货量将下降 10.4%。  
- HP 受影响较大，内存成本占其 PC 成本的 35%。  
- Apple 通过推出 599 美元的 MacBook Neo 抢占市场份额。

PC 市场的崩溃中有一个赢家——但这不是你所想的那个人