<ul>
<li>油价上涨，股票市场因美伊冲突而波动</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>低收入家庭可能削减支出，影响企业</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>美联储面临在冲突中平衡通胀与增长的挑战</li>
</ul>
<p>作者：霍华德·施奈德</p>
<p>华盛顿，3 月 10 日（路透社）- 随着汽油价格上涨和股市动荡，美国与以色列对伊朗的战争可能对美国各经济层面的消费者造成严重影响，这增加了经济增长的关键支柱受到削弱的风险，而这一支柱原本预计将在今年因收入税退税增加、失业率相对较低和资产价值上升而大幅增长。</p>
<p>在年初，分析师认为美国所谓的 K 型经济的两个 “推动力” 在未来几个月可能会维持甚至增长支出，富裕家庭的财富效应将促使他们消费更多，而新的加班和小费收入的免税政策将帮助小时工和一些服务行业的工人获得意外的税收退税。</p>
<p>然而，双方可能面临不同类型的压力。根据美国汽车协会的数据，截至周二早上，全国平均汽油价格已超过每加仑 3.50 美元，比冲突开始前的约 3 美元上涨了 17%。除了堪萨斯州的平均价格为 2.96 美元外，其他州的价格均已超过 3 美元，考虑到霍尔木兹海峡的运输中断使得油市仍然动荡，分析师认为如果冲突持续，汽油价格可能达到 4 美元。股市已从高位回落，关于未来的不确定性在家庭支出中显现出来，基于净资产上升的家庭支出在周一时，特朗普总统暗示冲突可能迅速结束，股市随之上涨，但他在夜间调整了措辞，保持了冲突延续的可能性，这将对全球供应链、商品市场和企业盈利带来所有相关风险。</p>
<p>周二早上，主要美国股指开盘时变化不大。</p>
<p>对于低收入家庭而言，汽油成本的上涨可能会从其他支出类别中抽走资金，给企业带来痛苦，这可能会导致企业开始降低就业和投资计划，面临突如其来的不确定环境。</p>
<p>“价格越高，持续时间越长，越会从一些公司因油价上涨而受益的情况转变为真正压迫消费者，并对经济造成拖累。价格在某一水平上维持一定时间，会从对 GDP 的正面影响转变为对 GDP 的负面影响，并增加经济衰退的可能性，” 威尔明顿信托的首席经济学家卢克·蒂利表示，油价在每桶 85 到 100 美元的范围内持续几个月，可能会 “显著增加衰退的风险，因为劳动力市场已经处于如此严峻的状态。”</p>
<p>基准布伦特原油周一突破每桶 116 美元，随后跌至 90 美元以下，周二早上再次上涨。美国国防部长皮特·赫格斯特表示，周二将对伊朗进行最强烈的打击，尽管一位高级将领谈到针对伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡布雷能力的打击，这可能是重新开放通过这一关键通道的一个步骤，而中东的石油运输几乎已停止。</p>
<p>美国和全球经济风险的突然变化给中央银行政策制定者带来了挑战，尤其是在美国，官员们看到一个基本强劲的经济面临着通胀和增长之间的平衡风险，通胀率大约高于 2% 的目标一个百分点，但预计会下降，而失业率似乎稳定在 4.3% 左右，没有明确的共识认为它即将飙升。</p>
<p>这一观点现在受到双重打击：经济在 2 月份意外失去就业岗位，现在又增加了不确定性，可能导致企业在招聘方面变得更加谨慎，而如果油价上涨推动其他商品的成本上升，如运输费或家庭取暖费，通胀可能会更广泛地上升。</p>
<p>尽管更高的燃料价格可能对通胀的影响只是暂时的，或者如果消费者将支出转移到其他领域并整体增长放缓，可能会减轻整体价格压力，但当前的背景带来了其他风险。在 2022 年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后油价飙升的分析中，堪萨斯城联邦储备银行的研究人员得出结论，汽油等高知名度消费品价格的上涨可能对家庭的通胀预期产生过大的影响，尤其是在这些预期已经因之前的通胀冲击而升高的情况下——这是美联储政策制定者持续担忧的动态，并已被引用为保持货币政策紧缩的理由，以控制预期。</p>
<p>投资者仍然预计美联储今年将降息，但在美国军事行动开始后，时机有所推迟，政策制定者之间在通胀和增长担忧之间可能出现对峙。</p>
<p>美联储下周召开会议，预计将维持当前 3.5% 至 3.75% 的政策利率不变。</p>
<p>BNY 投资的首席经济学家文森特·莱因哈特表示，中央银行现在得出关于冲突可能造成的经济影响的结论还为时尚早。即使对增长影响的担忧也必须考虑到美国作为净能源生产国的角色，这意味着尽管全球价格上涨可能导致美国消费者在加油时支付更高的价格，但这也意味着更高的收入，以及可能更多的就业和投资，给美国本土的能源公司带来好处。</p>
<p>但价格维持在高位的时间越长，风险就越大，每桶价格在 90 美元以上持续一个月或更长时间，可能会开始削弱消费和增长。</p>
<p>雷因哈特表示：“为了让石油冲击改变美国经济的走向，价格必须显著高于人们习惯的水平。必须足够大。我们还没有达到足够大的阶段。”</p>
<p>美国油价飙升</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-ECONOMY/GASOLINE/jnpwrydjrvw/chart_eikon.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1420" height="1024" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-ECONOMY/GASOLINE/jnpwrydjrvw/chart_eikon.jpg"/></p>

标普 500 指数

<ul>
<li>Gas prices rise, stocks volatile amid US-Iran conflict</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>油价上涨，股票市场因美伊冲突而波动</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Lower-income households may cut spending, affecting businesses</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>低收入家庭可能削减支出，影响企业</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Fed faces challenge balancing inflation and growth amid conflict</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>美联储面临在冲突中平衡通胀与增长的挑战</li>
</ul>
</div><p>By Howard Schneider</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：霍华德·施奈德</p>
</div><p>WASHINGTON, March 10 (Reuters) - Rising gasoline prices and a wobbly stock market are increasing the risk that the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran could hit hard among consumers across the economic spectrum in the United States, undercutting a key prop of economic growth that had been expected to surge this year on the basis of beefed-up income tax refunds, relatively low unemployment, and rising asset values.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华盛顿，3 月 10 日（路透社）- 随着汽油价格上涨和股市动荡，美国与以色列对伊朗的战争可能对美国各经济层面的消费者造成严重影响，这增加了经济增长的关键支柱受到削弱的风险，而这一支柱原本预计将在今年因收入税退税增加、失业率相对较低和资产价值上升而大幅增长。</p>
</div><p>Heading into the year, analysts felt there was reason both “spurs” of the U.S.’ so-called K-shaped economy could sustain or even grow spending in coming months, with wealth effects leading better-off families to consume more and windfall tax refunds from new exemptions on overtime and tip income helping hourly and some service industry workers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在年初，分析师认为美国所谓的 K 型经济的两个 “推动力” 在未来几个月可能会维持甚至增长支出，富裕家庭的财富效应将促使他们消费更多，而新的加班和小费收入的免税政策将帮助小时工和一些服务行业的工人获得意外的税收退税。</p>
</div><p>Instead, both sides could be under different sorts of pressure. Average national gasoline prices topped $3.50 a gallon as of Tuesday morning according to American Automobile Association data, a 17% jump from the roughly $3 average from before the beginning of the conflict. Prices are now above $3 in every state except Kansas, where the average was $2.96, and with oil markets still volatile given shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz analysts see $4 gas as a possibility if the conflict persists. Stocks have come off their highs and the uncertainty about what’s next, a factor in household spending based on rising net worth, was on display when President Donald Trump on Monday hinted at a possible quick end to the conflict and sent stocks higher, only to temper his language overnight and keep open the chance of an extended conflict with all of the attendant risks to global supply chains, commodity markets, and corporate earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，双方可能面临不同类型的压力。根据美国汽车协会的数据，截至周二早上，全国平均汽油价格已超过每加仑 3.50 美元，比冲突开始前的约 3 美元上涨了 17%。除了堪萨斯州的平均价格为 2.96 美元外，其他州的价格均已超过 3 美元，考虑到霍尔木兹海峡的运输中断使得油市仍然动荡，分析师认为如果冲突持续，汽油价格可能达到 4 美元。股市已从高位回落，关于未来的不确定性在家庭支出中显现出来，基于净资产上升的家庭支出在周一时，特朗普总统暗示冲突可能迅速结束，股市随之上涨，但他在夜间调整了措辞，保持了冲突延续的可能性，这将对全球供应链、商品市场和企业盈利带来所有相关风险。</p>
</div><p>Major U.S. stock indices were little changed when trading opened on Tuesday morning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周二早上，主要美国股指开盘时变化不大。</p>
</div><p>For lower-income households, rising gasoline costs could pull money from other categories of spending, spreading the pain across businesses that could in turn begin to lower job and investment plans in a suddenly uncertain environment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于低收入家庭而言，汽油成本的上涨可能会从其他支出类别中抽走资金，给企业带来痛苦，这可能会导致企业开始降低就业和投资计划，面临突如其来的不确定环境。</p>
</div><p>“The higher the price and the longer it goes the more you shift from higher prices benefitting some companies who boost oil production and get more revenue…to really pinching consumers and being a drag on the economy. There is some point of prices being at a certain level for a certain amount of time that it flips from being a plus to GDP to a drag on GDP and increasing the likelihood of a downturn,” said Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust, with oil in the $85 to $100 per barrel range for several months likely to “materially increase the risk of recession because the labor market is already in such a challenging state.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“价格越高，持续时间越长，越会从一些公司因油价上涨而受益的情况转变为真正压迫消费者，并对经济造成拖累。价格在某一水平上维持一定时间，会从对 GDP 的正面影响转变为对 GDP 的负面影响，并增加经济衰退的可能性，” 威尔明顿信托的首席经济学家卢克·蒂利表示，油价在每桶 85 到 100 美元的范围内持续几个月，可能会 “显著增加衰退的风险，因为劳动力市场已经处于如此严峻的状态。”</p>
</div><p>Benchmark Brent crude topped $116 a barrel on Monday before falling below $90 a barrel, then rising again on Tuesday morning. Far from an offramp, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Tuesday would see the most intense strikes yet on Iran, even as a top general talked of targeting Iran’s capacity to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a possible step towards reopening shipping through a chokepoint where the movement of oil from the Middle East has all but stopped.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基准布伦特原油周一突破每桶 116 美元，随后跌至 90 美元以下，周二早上再次上涨。美国国防部长皮特·赫格斯特表示，周二将对伊朗进行最强烈的打击，尽管一位高级将领谈到针对伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡布雷能力的打击，这可能是重新开放通过这一关键通道的一个步骤，而中东的石油运输几乎已停止。</p>
</div><p>The sudden shift in risks to the U.S. and global economy has posed a challenge to central bank policymakers, particularly in the U.S., where officials saw an essentially strong economy facing a balanced set of risks between inflation that was lodged about a percentage point above their 2% target but expected to fall, and an unemployment rate seemingly stable in a range around 4.3% with no clear consensus that it was about to spike higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国和全球经济风险的突然变化给中央银行政策制定者带来了挑战，尤其是在美国，官员们看到一个基本强劲的经济面临着通胀和增长之间的平衡风险，通胀率大约高于 2% 的目标一个百分点，但预计会下降，而失业率似乎稳定在 4.3% 左右，没有明确的共识认为它即将飙升。</p>
</div><p>That view has now been hit from both sides: with the economy already having shed jobs unexpectedly in February, there is now the added risk that uncertainty stemming from the conflict could cause businesses to become more cautious about hiring, while inflation could rise more broadly if higher oil prices drive up costs for other things, like shipping rates or home heating bills.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一观点现在受到双重打击：经济在 2 月份意外失去就业岗位，现在又增加了不确定性，可能导致企业在招聘方面变得更加谨慎，而如果油价上涨推动其他商品的成本上升，如运输费或家庭取暖费，通胀可能会更广泛地上升。</p>
</div><p>Even though higher fuel prices may have only a temporary influence on inflation, or could even ease broader price pressures on net if consumers shift spending away from other areas and overall growth slows, the current context poses other risks. In analysis conducted after oil costs jumped in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Kansas City Fed researchers concluded that increases in high-profile consumer prices like those for gasoline can have an outsized effect on household inflation expectations if those are already elevated by a previous inflation shock - a dynamic Fed policymakers continue to worry about and have cited as a reason to keep monetary policy restrictive in order to hold expectations in check.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管更高的燃料价格可能对通胀的影响只是暂时的，或者如果消费者将支出转移到其他领域并整体增长放缓，可能会减轻整体价格压力，但当前的背景带来了其他风险。在 2022 年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后油价飙升的分析中，堪萨斯城联邦储备银行的研究人员得出结论，汽油等高知名度消费品价格的上涨可能对家庭的通胀预期产生过大的影响，尤其是在这些预期已经因之前的通胀冲击而升高的情况下——这是美联储政策制定者持续担忧的动态，并已被引用为保持货币政策紧缩的理由，以控制预期。</p>
</div><p>Investors still expect the Fed to cut interest rates this year, but the timing shifted back after the start of U.S. military action, with a potential standoff developing among policymakers between inflation and growth concerns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者仍然预计美联储今年将降息，但在美国军事行动开始后，时机有所推迟，政策制定者之间在通胀和增长担忧之间可能出现对峙。</p>
</div><p>The Fed meets next week and is expected to keep its policy rate steady in the current 3.5% to 3.75% range.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储下周召开会议，预计将维持当前 3.5% 至 3.75% 的政策利率不变。</p>
</div><p>Vincent Reinhart, chief economist at BNY Investments and a former top Fed staffer, said it was far too early for the central bank to draw any conclusions about the likely economic fallout from the conflict. Even concerns about the impact on growth have to be tempered by the fact that the U.S.’ role as a net energy producer means that while higher global prices may mean higher prices at the pump for U.S. consumers, it also means higher income, and potentially more jobs and investment, for U.S.-based energy firms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BNY 投资的首席经济学家文森特·莱因哈特表示，中央银行现在得出关于冲突可能造成的经济影响的结论还为时尚早。即使对增长影响的担忧也必须考虑到美国作为净能源生产国的角色，这意味着尽管全球价格上涨可能导致美国消费者在加油时支付更高的价格，但这也意味着更高的收入，以及可能更多的就业和投资，给美国本土的能源公司带来好处。</p>
</div><p>But the longer prices remain elevated the greater the risks, with per-barrel costs in the upper $90 range for a month or longer the sort of material shock that could start to undercut consumption and growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但价格维持在高位的时间越长，风险就越大，每桶价格在 90 美元以上持续一个月或更长时间，可能会开始削弱消费和增长。</p>
</div><p>“You have to have prices meaningfully higher than what people are used to,” for an oil shock to change the course of the U.S. economy, Reinhart said. “It’s got to be big enough. We’re not at the big enough stage.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雷因哈特表示：“为了让石油冲击改变美国经济的走向，价格必须显著高于人们习惯的水平。必须足够大。我们还没有达到足够大的阶段。”</p>
</div><p>US pump prices have shot up</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国油价飙升</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-ECONOMY/GASOLINE/jnpwrydjrvw/chart_eikon.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-ECONOMY/GASOLINE/jnpwrydjrvw/chart_eikon.jpg"/></p>

Higher gasoline prices, volatile stocks, could hit both low- and high-income US consumers as war persists

Reuters

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随着战争的持续，更高的汽油价格和波动的股票可能会影响美国的低收入和高收入消费者