<p>伊朗的战争使霍尔木兹海峡成为全球的冲突热点——因此，全球约 20% 的石油供应现在面临风险。大多数投资者都在以明显的方式进行操作。但油价是不可预测的，周一近 30% 的反转就证明了这一点。真正的机会在于那些无论原油价格如何都能获利的股票。</p>
<hr/>
<h2>1. 霍尔木兹海峡是什么，为什么对投资者重要？</h2>
<p>霍尔木兹海峡位于伊朗和阿拉伯半岛之间——那里的战争动摇了全球能源市场。该水道是石油和液化天然气出口的关键通道，当其受到干扰时，影响不仅限于原油。它还波及到天然气、化肥和大多数投资者未关注的农业市场。</p>
<p>查看在霍尔木兹危机期间应该购买哪些股票——以及原因。→</p>
<hr/>
<h2>2. 我现在应该购买石油股票还是错过了机会？</h2>
<p>明显的交易已经证明是危险的。周一，油价在一个交易日内几乎反转了 30%——这提醒我们，在地缘政治危机期间交易原油更像是掷硬币而不是投资。</p>
<p>值得拥有的生产商是完全不同类型的投资——无论油价是 85 美元还是 120 美元，它们都能保持盈利。</p>
<p>查看在霍尔木兹危机期间应该购买哪些股票——以及为什么原油交易错失了重点。→</p>
<hr/>
<h2>3. 在霍尔木兹危机期间，德文能源（DVN）股票值得买吗？</h2>
<p>德文是美国最大的页岩油生产商之一，最近与 Coterra Energy 合并。其盈亏平衡油价足够低，即使原油回落也能保持盈利——并且无论现货油价如何，它都可以在期货市场上锁定当前价格。</p>
<p>但德文并不仅仅是一个石油故事。德克萨斯州西部的天然气滞留问题困扰德文多年，现在随着新的管道能力上线，连接其生产与墨 Gulf Coast 的液化天然气出口设施，这一问题正在解决——正值全球液化天然气供应紧张之际。</p>
<p>获取霍尔木兹危机期间德文能源（DVN）股票的完整分析。→</p>
<hr/>
<h2>4. 在霍尔木兹危机期间，挪威石油（EQNR）股票值得买吗？</h2>
<p>挪威石油是欧洲最大的管道天然气供应商——它以前也经历过类似情况。当 2022 年乌克兰入侵后，俄罗斯的天然气供应枯竭时，挪威石油填补了这一空白。其股价大约翻了一番，股息连续四年增长。</p>
<p>卡塔尔在伊朗导弹袭击其能源基础设施后被迫削减液化天然气生产。欧洲天然气价格已经因此飙升。挪威石油的股价仍然比 2022 年的峰值低近 20%。</p>
<p>获取霍尔木兹危机期间挪威石油（EQNR）股票的完整分析。→</p>
<hr/>
<h2>5. 在霍尔木兹危机期间，我应该购买美盛（MOS）股票吗？</h2>
<p>海湾不仅是能源中心——它还是氮肥的主要供应商，而这些出口实际上已经停止。最直接的受益者已经出现：CF Industries 自 1 月以来上涨超过 40%，Nutrien 上涨 20%。</p>
<p>美盛生产钾肥和磷肥——属于不同类别——这就是它没有跟随上涨的原因。但氮肥价格的上涨已经开始影响作物种植决策，这一波动对美盛的影响华尔街尚未完全意识到。</p>
<p>获取霍尔木兹危机期间美盛（MOS）股票的完整分析。→</p>
<hr/>
<h2>6. 如果霍尔木兹危机迅速解决，风险是什么？</h2>
<p>油价在两个方向上都是不可预测的。但德文和挪威石油的低盈亏平衡成本意味着即使原油价格急剧回落，它们仍然保持盈利。而美盛理论背后的化肥市场变化与油价完全是不同的动态。</p>
<p>查看德文、挪威石油和美盛的完整霍尔木兹危机股票分析。→</p>
<hr/>
<p>Thomas Yeung 是市场分析师和 Omnia Portfolio 的投资组合经理，这是 InvestorPlace 的最高级别订阅。他曾是 Tom Yeung 的 Profit &amp; Protection 的编辑，这是一本关于在好时光中获利和在坏时光中保护收益的免费电子信件。</p>

能源业 ETF - SPDR

挪威石油

美盛

<p>正在进行的伊朗战争加剧了霍尔木兹海峡的紧张局势，危及全球约 20% 的石油供应。建议投资者考虑那些能够在油价波动中依然蓬勃发展的股票。主要推荐包括戴文能源，该公司以低盈亏平衡成本保持盈利，并且在液化天然气出口方面处于良好位置；挪威石油，作为欧洲最大的管道天然气供应商，尽管需求强劲，其股价表现不佳；以及美盛，一家受益于氮肥价格上涨的肥料生产商。分析强调了油价的不确定性，以及在危机期间这些公司可能带来的盈利投资机会</p>

<p>War in Iran has turned the Strait of Hormuz into a global flashpoint — and with it, roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply is now at risk. Most investors are playing it the obvious way. But oil prices are unpredictable, as Monday’s near-30% reversal proved. The real opportunity is in stocks that win no matter where crude goes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗的战争使霍尔木兹海峡成为全球的冲突热点——因此，全球约 20% 的石油供应现在面临风险。大多数投资者都在以明显的方式进行操作。但油价是不可预测的，周一近 30% 的反转就证明了这一点。真正的机会在于那些无论原油价格如何都能获利的股票。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>1. What Is the Strait of Hormuz and Why Does It Matter to Investors?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 霍尔木兹海峡是什么，为什么对投资者重要？</h2>
</div><p>The Strait of Hormuz sits between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula — and war there has shaken global energy markets. The waterway is a critical passage for oil and LNG exports, and when it’s disrupted, the effects don’t stop at crude. They ripple into natural gas, fertilizer, and agricultural markets that most investors aren’t watching.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>霍尔木兹海峡位于伊朗和阿拉伯半岛之间——那里的战争动摇了全球能源市场。该水道是石油和液化天然气出口的关键通道，当其受到干扰时，影响不仅限于原油。它还波及到天然气、化肥和大多数投资者未关注的农业市场。</p>
</div><p>See which stocks to buy during the Hormuz crisis — and why. →</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看在霍尔木兹危机期间应该购买哪些股票——以及原因。→</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>2. Should I Buy Oil Stocks Now or Did I Miss the Move?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 我现在应该购买石油股票还是错过了机会？</h2>
</div><p>The obvious trade has already proved dangerous. Oil nearly reversed 30% in a single session on Monday — a reminder that trading crude during a geopolitical crisis is closer to a coin flip than an investment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>明显的交易已经证明是危险的。周一，油价在一个交易日内几乎反转了 30%——这提醒我们，在地缘政治危机期间交易原油更像是掷硬币而不是投资。</p>
</div><p>The producers worth owning are a different kind of bet entirely — ones that stay profitable whether oil is at $85 or $120.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得拥有的生产商是完全不同类型的投资——无论油价是 85 美元还是 120 美元，它们都能保持盈利。</p>
</div><p>See which stocks to buy during the Hormuz crisis — and why the crude trade misses the point. →</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看在霍尔木兹危机期间应该购买哪些股票——以及为什么原油交易错失了重点。→</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>3. Is Devon Energy (DVN) Stock a Buy During the Hormuz Crisis?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. 在霍尔木兹危机期间，德文能源（DVN）股票值得买吗？</h2>
</div><p>Devon is one of America’s largest shale producers and recently merged with Coterra Energy. Its breakeven oil price is low enough that it remains profitable even as crude pulls back — and it can lock in current prices in the futures market regardless of where spot oil goes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德文是美国最大的页岩油生产商之一，最近与 Coterra Energy 合并。其盈亏平衡油价足够低，即使原油回落也能保持盈利——并且无论现货油价如何，它都可以在期货市场上锁定当前价格。</p>
</div><p>But Devon isn’t purely an oil story. A stranded gas problem in West Texas that hobbled Devon for years is now resolving, with new pipeline capacity coming online that connects its production to LNG export facilities on the Gulf Coast — just as global LNG supply has tightened.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但德文并不仅仅是一个石油故事。德克萨斯州西部的天然气滞留问题困扰德文多年，现在随着新的管道能力上线，连接其生产与墨 Gulf Coast 的液化天然气出口设施，这一问题正在解决——正值全球液化天然气供应紧张之际。</p>
</div><p>Get the complete Devon Energy (DVN) stock analysis for the Hormuz crisis. →</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>获取霍尔木兹危机期间德文能源（DVN）股票的完整分析。→</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>4. Is Equinor (EQNR) Stock a Buy During the Hormuz Crisis?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>4. 在霍尔木兹危机期间，挪威石油（EQNR）股票值得买吗？</h2>
</div><p>Equinor is Europe’s largest supplier of piped gas — and it has been here before. When Russian gas supplies dried up after the 2022 Ukraine invasion, Equinor stepped into the vacuum. Shares roughly doubled and dividends grew for four consecutive years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>挪威石油是欧洲最大的管道天然气供应商——它以前也经历过类似情况。当 2022 年乌克兰入侵后，俄罗斯的天然气供应枯竭时，挪威石油填补了这一空白。其股价大约翻了一番，股息连续四年增长。</p>
</div><p>Qatar has now been forced to curtail LNG production following Iranian missile strikes on its energy infrastructure. European gas prices have already spiked in response. Equinor shares are still trading nearly 20% below their 2022 peak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>卡塔尔在伊朗导弹袭击其能源基础设施后被迫削减液化天然气生产。欧洲天然气价格已经因此飙升。挪威石油的股价仍然比 2022 年的峰值低近 20%。</p>
</div><p>Get the complete Equinor (EQNR) stock analysis for the Hormuz crisis. →</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>获取霍尔木兹危机期间挪威石油（EQNR）股票的完整分析。→</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>5. Should I Buy Mosaic (MOS) Stock During the Hormuz Crisis?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>5. 在霍尔木兹危机期间，我应该购买美盛（MOS）股票吗？</h2>
</div><p>The Gulf isn’t only an energy hub — it’s a major supplier of nitrogen-based fertilizers, and those exports have effectively stopped. The most direct beneficiaries have already moved: CF Industries is up over 40% since January, Nutrien is up 20%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>海湾不仅是能源中心——它还是氮肥的主要供应商，而这些出口实际上已经停止。最直接的受益者已经出现：CF Industries 自 1 月以来上涨超过 40%，Nutrien 上涨 20%。</p>
</div><p>Mosaic produces potash and phosphate — a different category — which is why it hasn’t moved with them. But rising nitrogen prices are already starting to influence crop planting decisions, and that ripple has implications for Mosaic that Wall Street hasn’t fully caught up to yet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美盛生产钾肥和磷肥——属于不同类别——这就是它没有跟随上涨的原因。但氮肥价格的上涨已经开始影响作物种植决策，这一波动对美盛的影响华尔街尚未完全意识到。</p>
</div><p>Get the complete Mosaic (MOS) stock analysis for the Hormuz crisis. →</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>获取霍尔木兹危机期间美盛（MOS）股票的完整分析。→</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>6. What Are the Risks If the Hormuz Crisis Resolves Quickly?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>6. 如果霍尔木兹危机迅速解决，风险是什么？</h2>
</div><p>Oil prices are unpredictable in both directions. But Devon and Equinor’s low breakeven costs mean they remain profitable even if crude pulls back sharply. And the fertilizer market shift behind the Mosaic thesis is a separate dynamic from the oil price entirely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油价在两个方向上都是不可预测的。但德文和挪威石油的低盈亏平衡成本意味着即使原油价格急剧回落，它们仍然保持盈利。而美盛理论背后的化肥市场变化与油价完全是不同的动态。</p>
</div><p>See the complete Hormuz crisis stock analysis for Devon, Equinor, and Mosaic. →</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看德文、挪威石油和美盛的完整霍尔木兹危机股票分析。→</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p>Thomas Yeung is a market analyst and portfolio manager of the Omnia Portfolio, the highest-tier subscription at InvestorPlace. He is the former editor of Tom Yeung’s Profit &amp; Protection, a free e-letter about investing to profit in good times and protecting gains during the bad.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Thomas Yeung 是市场分析师和 Omnia Portfolio 的投资组合经理，这是 InvestorPlace 的最高级别订阅。他曾是 Tom Yeung 的 Profit &amp; Protection 的编辑，这是一本关于在好时光中获利和在坏时光中保护收益的免费电子信件。</p>
</div>

荷姆兹危机期间值得买入的 3 只股票——及其原因