<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/Turkish-Central-bank.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1536" height="1024" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/Turkish-Central-bank.png"/></p>
<p>由于中东危机持续，土耳其里拉本周小幅上涨，交易者在等待即将到来的土耳其中央银行利率决定。美元/土耳其里拉汇率从年初至今的高点 44.10 回落至 44。</p>
<h2>土耳其中央银行利率决定</h2>
<p>本周，土耳其共和国中央银行（CBRT）将成为焦点，因为它将公布利率决定。</p>
<p>这一决定是在中东危机持续的背景下做出的。例如，北约官员击落了几架伊朗无人机。</p>
<p>美元/土耳其里拉汇率的下一个重要数据将在周四公布，当时中央银行将发布其利率决定。</p>
<p>路透社调查的经济学家预计，中央银行将维持利率在 37% 不变。同时，隔夜借贷和贷款利率将分别维持在 35.5% 和 40% 不变。</p>
<p>最新数据显示，土耳其的通货膨胀在 2 月份略有上升，这一趋势可能会在未来几个月继续，因为中东危机的影响。2 月份的消费者价格指数（CPI）从 1 月份的 30.6% 上升至 31.53%。</p>
<p>积极的一面是，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后的核心通胀在 2 月份降至 29.4%，低于之前的 29.8%。由于持续的战争推动全球能源价格上涨，通胀可能仍将保持在高位。</p>
<p>土耳其的失业率在 1 月份跳升，从 12 月份创下的 7.8% 的历史低点上升至 8.1%。与此同时，失业人数减少了 73,000 人，降至 282 万人。</p>
<p>土耳其的 GDP 在第四季度也放缓，仅增长 0.4%，低于之前的 1%。分析师仍然预计，中央银行将在今年晚些时候降息，特别是如果整体通胀继续下降的话。</p>
<p>美元/土耳其里拉汇率的另一个关键催化剂将是即将发布的美国消费者通胀报告，该报告将在周三公布。</p>
<p>经济学家预计，即将发布的报告将显示，2 月份的消费者价格指数（CPI）上涨了 2.4%，而核心通胀上涨了 2.5%。</p>
<p>人们担心美国经济已经进入滞涨阶段，即通胀上升而经济增长放缓。通胀可能仍将高于美联储 2.0% 的目标，而劳动力市场的疲软加剧。周五发布的一份报告显示，2 月份经济失去了超过 92,000 个就业岗位。</p>
<h2>USD/TRY 技术分析</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/USDTR.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="3574" height="2106" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/USDTR.png"/></p>
<p><em>土耳其里拉图表 | 来源：TradingView</em></p>
<p>日线图显示，美元对土耳其里拉的汇率在今年继续上涨。本月跳升至 44.10 的历史高点后，回落至 44。</p>
<p>该货币对仍高于所有移动平均线，而相对强弱指数（RSI）和 MACD 指标持续上升，已达到超买水平。</p>
<p>因此，该货币对可能会恢复上升趋势，并有可能达到其关键目标水平 45。</p>
<p>美元/土耳其里拉预测：里拉在土耳其中央银行决定前上涨，首发于 Invezz。</p>

土耳其指数 MSCI ETF - iShares

<p>土耳其里拉略有上涨，交易者在等待土耳其共和国中央银行（CBRT）的利率决定，同时中东局势持续紧张。美元/土耳其里拉汇率从 44.10 的高位降至 44。经济学家预计 CBRT 将维持利率在 37%。土耳其的通货膨胀在 2 月份上升至 31.53%，而失业率则增加至 8.1%。分析师预测，如果通货膨胀趋势持续，可能会在今年晚些时候进行降息。即将发布的美国消费者通胀报告也可能影响美元/土耳其里拉汇率</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/Turkish-Central-bank.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/Turkish-Central-bank.png"/></p>
<p>The Turkish lira rose slightly this week as traders waited for the upcoming CBRT interest rate decision, as the crisis in the Middle East continued. The USD/TRY exchange rate retreated to 44 from the year-to-date high of 44.10.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于中东危机持续，土耳其里拉本周小幅上涨，交易者在等待即将到来的土耳其中央银行利率决定。美元/土耳其里拉汇率从年初至今的高点 44.10 回落至 44。</p>
</div><h2>Turkish Central Bank interest rate decision</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>土耳其中央银行利率决定</h2>
</div><p>The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) will be in the spotlight this week as it delivers its interest rate decision.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周，土耳其共和国中央银行（CBRT）将成为焦点，因为它将公布利率决定。</p>
</div><p>This decision comes as the country comes in the spotlight as a crisis in the Middle East continues. For example, NATO officials have downed several Iranian drones.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一决定是在中东危机持续的背景下做出的。例如，北约官员击落了几架伊朗无人机。</p>
</div><p>The next important for the USD/TRY exchange rate will come out on Thursday when the CBRT publishes its interest rate decision.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元/土耳其里拉汇率的下一个重要数据将在周四公布，当时中央银行将发布其利率决定。</p>
</div><p>Economists polled by Reuters expect the bank to maintain interest rates unchanged at 37%. It will also leave the overnight borrowing and lending rates unchanged at 35.5% and 40%, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>路透社调查的经济学家预计，中央银行将维持利率在 37% 不变。同时，隔夜借贷和贷款利率将分别维持在 35.5% 和 40% 不变。</p>
</div><p>The most recent data showed that Turkey’s inflation rose slightly in February, a trend that may continue in the coming months because of the crisis in the Middle East. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 31.53% in February from 30.6% in January.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最新数据显示，土耳其的通货膨胀在 2 月份略有上升，这一趋势可能会在未来几个月继续，因为中东危机的影响。2 月份的消费者价格指数（CPI）从 1 月份的 30.6% 上升至 31.53%。</p>
</div><p>On the positive side, core inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices, dropped to 29.4% in February from the previous 29.8%. Inflation may remain high now that the ongoing war has pushed energy prices higher around the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>积极的一面是，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后的核心通胀在 2 月份降至 29.4%，低于之前的 29.8%。由于持续的战争推动全球能源价格上涨，通胀可能仍将保持在高位。</p>
</div><p>Turkey’s unemployment rate jumped in January, moving from a record low of 7.8% in December to 8.1%. This happened as the number of the unemployed fell by 73,000 to 2.82 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>土耳其的失业率在 1 月份跳升，从 12 月份创下的 7.8% 的历史低点上升至 8.1%。与此同时，失业人数减少了 73,000 人，降至 282 万人。</p>
</div><p>Turkey’s GDP also slowed down in the fourth quarter. It expanded by just 0.4% from the previous 1%. Analysts still expect that the central bank will cut rates later this year, especially if the headline inflation continues falling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>土耳其的 GDP 在第四季度也放缓，仅增长 0.4%，低于之前的 1%。分析师仍然预计，中央银行将在今年晚些时候降息，特别是如果整体通胀继续下降的话。</p>
</div><p>The other key catalyst for the USD/TRY exchange rate will be the upcoming US consumer inflation report, which will come out on Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元/土耳其里拉汇率的另一个关键催化剂将是即将发布的美国消费者通胀报告，该报告将在周三公布。</p>
</div><p>Economists expect the upcoming report to show that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% in February as the core inflation rose by 2.5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经济学家预计，即将发布的报告将显示，2 月份的消费者价格指数（CPI）上涨了 2.4%，而核心通胀上涨了 2.5%。</p>
</div><p>There are concerns that the US economy has moved into a stagflation, which happens when inflation is rising as economic growth slows. Inflation will likely remain above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2.0%, while the labor market weakness has accelerated. A report released on Friday showed that the economy shed over 92,000 jobs in February.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人们担心美国经济已经进入滞涨阶段，即通胀上升而经济增长放缓。通胀可能仍将高于美联储 2.0% 的目标，而劳动力市场的疲软加剧。周五发布的一份报告显示，2 月份经济失去了超过 92,000 个就业岗位。</p>
</div><h2>USD/TRY technical analysis</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>USD/TRY 技术分析</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/USDTR.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/USDTR.png"/></p>
<p><em>Turkish lira chart | Source: TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>土耳其里拉图表 | 来源：TradingView</em></p>
</div><p>The daily timeframe chart shows that the USD to TRY exchange rate has continued rising this year. It jumped to a record high of 44.10 this month and then pulled back to 44 this month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日线图显示，美元对土耳其里拉的汇率在今年继续上涨。本月跳升至 44.10 的历史高点后，回落至 44。</p>
</div><p>The pair remains above all moving averages, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD indicators have continued rising, moving to the overbought level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该货币对仍高于所有移动平均线，而相对强弱指数（RSI）和 MACD 指标持续上升，已达到超买水平。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, the pair will likely resume the uptrend and potentially reach its key target level at 45.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，该货币对可能会恢复上升趋势，并有可能达到其关键目标水平 45。</p>
</div><p>The post USD/TRY forecast: Lira rises ahead of the Turkish Central Bank decision appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元/土耳其里拉预测：里拉在土耳其中央银行决定前上涨，首发于 Invezz。</p>
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美元兑土耳其里拉的预测：土耳其里拉在土耳其央行决策前有所上涨