<ul>
<li>中东冲突导致油价飙升</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>市场迅速重新评估新兴经济体的利率预期</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>无法放松政策对经济增长产生负面影响</li>
</ul>
<p>作者：卡琳·斯特罗赫克</p>
<p>伦敦，3 月 11 日（路透社）- 伊朗战争引发的油价飙升，暂时中断了从波兰到土耳其的新兴市场央行的货币宽松推动，因为政策制定者面临通胀预期急剧上升和风险厌恶加剧的局面。</p>
<p>在经历了一系列冲击——从新冠疫情到俄罗斯入侵乌克兰——扰乱市场、打击增长并推动通胀后，央行们终于对全球经济的韧性和价格压力的减退感到有些乐观。</p>
<p>但由于华盛顿和以色列对伊朗的轰炸行动引发的中东冲突，油价在周一飙升至近每桶 120 美元，美元走强，美国国债收益率上升——这成为新兴市场借贷成本的一个指标。</p>
<p>尽管这些变动中的一些已经被逆转，但在地缘政治动荡加剧的情况下，通胀和全球经济增长的前景依然不稳定。</p>
<p>在战争爆发前的 2 月底，15 家主要新兴市场央行中有 10 家预计将在接下来的六个月内至少下调 10 个基点的政策利率。</p>
<p>然而到周二，这个数字缩减至仅六家，预计仍会降息的央行的降息幅度也有所减少，摩根大通的计算显示。</p>
<p>“新兴市场的央行可能会越来越多地发出 ‘观望’ 的信号，等待伊朗冲突相关不确定性的解决，” 格拉梅西基金管理公司的主权研究与战略联席负责人佩塔尔·阿塔纳索夫表示。</p>
<h3>新兴欧洲从宽松转向可能的紧缩</h3>
<p>新兴市场并不孤单。过去一周，美国联邦储备委员会的降息预期也大幅回落。</p>
<p>但这种转变在新兴欧洲表现得尤为明显，市场对捷克、匈牙利和波兰的定价显示出在接下来的六个月内从宽松转向潜在紧缩。</p>
<p>波兰的政策制定者承认，近期降息的余地已经缩小，而匈牙利和捷克的同行也承认了伊朗冲突带来的风险和不确定性。</p>
<p>对能源进口的依赖是一个重要因素，法国兴业银行的 CEEMEA 经济学家胡安·奥尔茨表示。</p>
<p>“例如，在中东欧，波兰和匈牙利对油价非常敏感，” 他说。</p>
<h3>在通胀风险与增长困境之间的平衡</h3>
<p>分析师表示，原油的不确定前景和整体能源价格的上涨是全球新兴市场面临的平衡难题的核心，因为央行被迫在上升的价格压力与对增长的影响之间权衡。</p>
<p>“这是对增长的负面冲击，” 摩根士丹利全球外汇和新兴市场战略负责人詹姆斯·洛德表示。“这是一种消费税，可能会导致央行采取比原本更紧缩的政策，因为通胀风险。”</p>
<p>在拉丁美洲，市场对巴西的降息预期减少，尽管中央银行预计将在 3 月 18 日公布利率决定，仍然预计会降息，因为政策制定者面临疲软的增长。中央银行在去年 7 月暂停了激进的紧缩周期，此后将基准利率维持在 15%，为近 20 年来的最高水平。</p>
<p>另一个焦点是土耳其——一个对通胀压力高度敏感的能源进口国，中央银行预计将在周四公布其利率决定。</p>
<p>“我们预计土耳其中央银行将通过暂停降息周期来回应，等待冲突的可能持续时间和相关经济涟漪效应的进一步发展，” 格拉梅西的阿塔纳索夫表示。</p>
<p>虽然中东冲突及其连锁反应可能促使央行在短期内放缓降息或暂停降息，但未来的可见性要低得多。</p>
<p>在 2021 年和 2022 年，随着经济仍在从疫情中恢复，并突然面临与乌克兰战争爆发相关的冲击，新兴市场央行是最早加息并应对通胀压力的央行之一，而许多发达经济体的同行错误地认为情况会是暂时的。</p>
<p>再次强调，未来的许多事情将取决于央行行长对能源价格上涨及其后续通胀影响的持续性的判断，南非储备银行行长莱塞贾·卡尼亚戈告诉路透社。</p>
<p>低估其持续性将需要在未来采取更激进且更昂贵的立场，而及早应对通胀将允许在一段时间内更平稳的政策行动，” 他说。</p>
<p>“这就是 2021/2022 年的教训，” 卡尼亚戈说。“那些早期采取行动的央行发现，他们不必采取激进的措施……一步到位，这正是那些在 2022 年下半年才反应的央行所经历的情况。”</p>
<p>新兴市场央行的利率预期已大幅变化</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/4cI4rvz?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/4cI4rvz"/></p>

AVEM

SPDR标普新兴市场高股利ETF

EVLU

<ul>
<li>Conflict in Middle East sends oil prices soaring</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>中东冲突导致油价飙升</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Markets rapidly re-priced rate bets for emerging economies</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>市场迅速重新评估新兴经济体的利率预期</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Inability to ease is negative for economic growth</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>无法放松政策对经济增长产生负面影响</li>
</ul>
</div><p>By Karin Strohecker</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：卡琳·斯特罗赫克</p>
</div><p>LONDON, March 11 (Reuters) - The oil price spike brought on by the war in Iran has, for now, short-circuited a monetary easing push among emerging market central banks from Poland to Turkey as policymakers reckon with a sharp uptick in inflation expectations and rising risk aversion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伦敦，3 月 11 日（路透社）- 伊朗战争引发的油价飙升，暂时中断了从波兰到土耳其的新兴市场央行的货币宽松推动，因为政策制定者面临通胀预期急剧上升和风险厌恶加剧的局面。</p>
</div><p>Following a raft of shocks - from the COVID pandemic to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - that roiled markets, hit growth and fuelled inflation, central banks had finally been growing somewhat optimistic again about global economic resilience and receding price pressures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在经历了一系列冲击——从新冠疫情到俄罗斯入侵乌克兰——扰乱市场、打击增长并推动通胀后，央行们终于对全球经济的韧性和价格压力的减退感到有些乐观。</p>
</div><p>But the widening conflict in the Middle East triggered by Washington and Israel’s bombing campaign against Iran saw oil prices soar to nearly $120 per barrel on Monday, the dollar gain ground and a rise in U.S. Treasury yields - a proxy for borrowing costs for emerging markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但由于华盛顿和以色列对伊朗的轰炸行动引发的中东冲突，油价在周一飙升至近每桶 120 美元，美元走强，美国国债收益率上升——这成为新兴市场借贷成本的一个指标。</p>
</div><p>Although some of those moves have since been reversed, the outlook for inflation and global economic growth at a time of increasing geopolitical turmoil remains volatile.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管这些变动中的一些已经被逆转，但在地缘政治动荡加剧的情况下，通胀和全球经济增长的前景依然不稳定。</p>
</div><p>Just before the war broke out in late February, 10 out of a sample of 15 major emerging market central banks had been expected to ease policy rates by at least 10 basis points in the six months to follow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在战争爆发前的 2 月底，15 家主要新兴市场央行中有 10 家预计将在接下来的六个月内至少下调 10 个基点的政策利率。</p>
</div><p>On Tuesday, however, that number had shrunk to just six, and the amount of easing forecast for those still expected to lower rates had also decreased, JPMorgan calculations showed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而到周二，这个数字缩减至仅六家，预计仍会降息的央行的降息幅度也有所减少，摩根大通的计算显示。</p>
</div><p>“Central banks across emerging markets are likely to increasingly signal a ‘wait and see approach’ pending resolution of Iran conflict-related uncertainty,” said Petar Atanasov, Co-Head of Sovereign Research and Strategy at Gramercy Funds Management.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“新兴市场的央行可能会越来越多地发出 ‘观望’ 的信号，等待伊朗冲突相关不确定性的解决，” 格拉梅西基金管理公司的主权研究与战略联席负责人佩塔尔·阿塔纳索夫表示。</p>
</div><h3>EMERGING EUROPE SHIFTS FROM EASING TO POSSIBLE TIGHTENING</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>新兴欧洲从宽松转向可能的紧缩</h3>
</div><p>Emerging markets are not alone. The past week has also seen a sharp scaling back of rate-cut bets for the U.S. Federal Reserve.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新兴市场并不孤单。过去一周，美国联邦储备委员会的降息预期也大幅回落。</p>
</div><p>But the shift appears most pronounced in emerging Europe, where market pricing for the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland indicated a swing from easing to potential tightening in the next six months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这种转变在新兴欧洲表现得尤为明显，市场对捷克、匈牙利和波兰的定价显示出在接下来的六个月内从宽松转向潜在紧缩。</p>
</div><p>Policymakers in Poland conceded that wiggle room for lowering rates had shrunk in recent days, while their peers in Hungary and the Czech Republic have acknowledged the risks and uncertainties reverberating from the Iran conflict.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>波兰的政策制定者承认，近期降息的余地已经缩小，而匈牙利和捷克的同行也承认了伊朗冲突带来的风险和不确定性。</p>
</div><p>Reliance on energy imports was an important factor, said Juan Orts, CEEMEA Economist at Societe Generale.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对能源进口的依赖是一个重要因素，法国兴业银行的 CEEMEA 经济学家胡安·奥尔茨表示。</p>
</div><p>“In (Central and Eastern Europe) for example, the likes of Poland and Hungary are quite sensitive to oil prices,” he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“例如，在中东欧，波兰和匈牙利对油价非常敏感，” 他说。</p>
</div><h3>A BALANCING ACT BETWEEN INFLATION RISKS AND GROWTH WOES</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>在通胀风险与增长困境之间的平衡</h3>
</div><p>That uncertain outlook for crude and overall higher energy prices is at the heart of the balancing act facing emerging markets globally, analysts said, as central banks are forced to weigh concerns over rising price pressures against the impact on growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师表示，原油的不确定前景和整体能源价格的上涨是全球新兴市场面临的平衡难题的核心，因为央行被迫在上升的价格压力与对增长的影响之间权衡。</p>
</div><p>“It’s a negative shock for growth,” said James Lord, Global Head of FX and EM Strategy at Morgan Stanley. “It’s a sort of tax on consumption, and it’s potentially something that will cause central banks to have tighter policy than they otherwise might given the inflation risks.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这是对增长的负面冲击，” 摩根士丹利全球外汇和新兴市场战略负责人詹姆斯·洛德表示。“这是一种消费税，可能会导致央行采取比原本更紧缩的政策，因为通胀风险。”</p>
</div><p>In Latin America, markets priced less easing for Brazil, though the central bank, which is scheduled to publish its interest rate decision on March 18, is still expected to deliver a rate cut as policymakers face anaemic growth. The central bank paused an aggressive tightening cycle last July and has since kept the benchmark rate at 15%, the highest in nearly two decades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在拉丁美洲，市场对巴西的降息预期减少，尽管中央银行预计将在 3 月 18 日公布利率决定，仍然预计会降息，因为政策制定者面临疲软的增长。中央银行在去年 7 月暂停了激进的紧缩周期，此后将基准利率维持在 15%，为近 20 年来的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>Another flash point is Turkey - an energy importer highly sensitive to inflation pressures - with the central bank scheduled to publish its rate decision on Thursday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个焦点是土耳其——一个对通胀压力高度敏感的能源进口国，中央银行预计将在周四公布其利率决定。</p>
</div><p>“We expect the CBRT (central bank) to respond by pausing its rate cutting cycle, awaiting further developments in terms of the likely duration of the conflict and related economic ripple effects,” said Gramercy’s Atanasov.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们预计土耳其中央银行将通过暂停降息周期来回应，等待冲突的可能持续时间和相关经济涟漪效应的进一步发展，” 格拉梅西的阿塔纳索夫表示。</p>
</div><p>While the Middle East conflict with all its knock-on effects may prompt central banks to slow rate cuts or pause them in the near term, there is a lot less visibility down the line.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然中东冲突及其连锁反应可能促使央行在短期内放缓降息或暂停降息，但未来的可见性要低得多。</p>
</div><p>In 2021 and 2022, with economies still emerging from the pandemic and suddenly facing shocks related to the outbreak of the Ukraine war, emerging market central banks were among the first to hike and tackle inflation pressures, while many of their peers in developed economies falsely believed the situation would be transitory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2021 年和 2022 年，随着经济仍在从疫情中恢复，并突然面临与乌克兰战争爆发相关的冲击，新兴市场央行是最早加息并应对通胀压力的央行之一，而许多发达经济体的同行错误地认为情况会是暂时的。</p>
</div><p>Once again, much will hinge on central bankers’ judgement on how lasting the energy price rise and subsequent inflationary fallout will be, South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago told Reuters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>再次强调，未来的许多事情将取决于央行行长对能源价格上涨及其后续通胀影响的持续性的判断，南非储备银行行长莱塞贾·卡尼亚戈告诉路透社。</p>
</div><p>Underestimating its persistence would require a more aggressive - and more costly - stance down the line, while moving early to tackle inflation would allow for smoother policy actions over a period of time, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>低估其持续性将需要在未来采取更激进且更昂贵的立场，而及早应对通胀将允许在一段时间内更平稳的政策行动，” 他说。</p>
</div><p>“That was the lesson of 2021⁄2022,” Kganyago said. “The central banks that started to act early found that they didn’t have to act aggressively … in one step, which is what ended up happening with the central banks that only reacted in the second half of 2022.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这就是 2021/2022 年的教训，” 卡尼亚戈说。“那些早期采取行动的央行发现，他们不必采取激进的措施……一步到位，这正是那些在 2022 年下半年才反应的央行所经历的情况。”</p>
</div><p>Interest rate expectations have moved sharply for EM central banks</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新兴市场央行的利率预期已大幅变化</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/4cI4rvz" alt="" original-src="https://reut.rs/4cI4rvz"/></p>

ANALYSIS-Iran-linked energy spike shrinks emerging markets' room for rate cuts

- 中东冲突导致油价飙升，影响全球经济前景和通货膨胀预期。  
- 新兴市场央行降低利率预期减少，出现等待观望的态度。  
- 各国面临通胀和经济增长之间的平衡困境。

Reuters

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分析 - 与伊朗相关的能源价格飙升缩小了新兴市场降息的余地