<ul>
<li>欧元/美元的预测受到削弱，因为地缘政治紧张局势推高了油价和美元</li>
<li>能源风险：伊朗警告称将从 “互相打击” 转向 “持续打击”，因为国际能源署的紧急石油储备释放未能产生预期效果</li>
<li>欧元/美元技术分析显示低于 1.15 美元</li>
</ul>
<p>正如过去几天的情况一样，现在唯一重要的就是原油。而且，由于 EIA 创纪录的石油储备释放未能在今天将价格压低，这使得风险偏好低迷，股市挣扎，石油进口地区的货币走低。最新的美国通胀数据几乎没有对外汇市场造成任何波动。在油价仍然高企的背景下，以及价格可能进一步上涨的潜力，我们对欧元/美元的预测保持谨慎的负面态度。</p>
<p>稍后会讨论油价，但首先让我们讨论欧元/美元，因为它看起来有可能出现突破。</p>
<h2>欧元/美元预测：美元在地缘政治紧张局势中继续保持支撑</h2>
<p>欧元/美元受到油价上涨导致的欧元疲软和美元走强的双重驱动。随着中东地缘政治紧张局势推高油价并给全球市场注入新的不确定性，美元再次找到支撑，同时伤害了石油进口经济地区的货币。随着布伦特原油价格回升至每桶 90 美元附近，投资者似乎倾向于将美元作为防御性投资，尽管最新的通胀数据显示，进入 2 月份时价格压力相对平稳。按年计算，整体通胀保持在 2.4%，与预期一致，且与 1 月份持平。在最新的油价飙升之前，通胀表现相对温和。这是一个关键的警告。能源成本往往会影响通胀预期，如果原油价格继续攀升至每桶 100 美元，市场可能会开始定价美联储收紧政策的风险，而不是进一步放松。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.03.11%20eurusd.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.03.11%20eurusd.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView.com</p>
<p>在这种背景下，欧元/美元的预测偏向看跌，我们可能会看到该货币对在日线收盘时跌破关键的 1.1578 水平——1 月份的低点。尽管我们在最近几天看到欧元/美元多次跌破该水平，但在收盘时未能保持在该水平以下。如果最终突破，那么 1.1500 可能是从这里开始的直接目标，而 2025 年 8 月的低点 1.1391 将是下一个明显的下行目标。阻力现在被视为在 1.1606、1.1637 和 1.1670 附近。</p>
<h2>原油几乎没有反应，EIA 动用石油储备 - 原因在这里</h2>
<p>因此，国际能源署已确认成员国将从紧急储备中释放 4 亿桶石油，以帮助稳定油价。400 万桶能在多大程度上弥补伊朗冲突对全球石油供应的干扰仍有待观察。由于冲突已进入第 12 天，石油分析师不确定这一释放量是否足够。但从油价的反应来看，市场似乎已经对从储备中释放 4 亿桶的消息进行了消化。价格几乎没有波动。看起来投资者并不相信这会产生预期效果，并可能预计霍尔木兹海峡的石油流动将长期有效关闭，现在伊朗暗示将从 “互相打击” 转向 “持续打击”。</p>
<h2>中东紧张局势将油价推回 90 美元附近</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.03.11%20brent%20updated.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.03.11%20brent%20updated.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView.com</p>
<p>在伊朗关于潜在石油流动中断的新警告后，原油价格也上涨。据报道，德黑兰表示正在将其军事战略从 “互相打击” 转向 “持续打击”，这一举动表明冲突可能加剧而不是平息。</p>
<p>伊朗官员还对全球石油供应发出了严厉警告。一位军事发言人 reportedly 表示，美国将无法控制油价，同时声称伊朗不会允许 “即使一升石油” 到达美国、以色列或他们的合作伙伴。</p>
<p>更值得注意的是，伊朗暗示，任何前往这些目的地的船只或油轮都可能成为合法目标，这引发了对航运路线和更广泛供应中断的担忧。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></p>
<p>-- 作者：Fawad Razaqzada，市场分析师</p>
<p>在 Twitter 上关注 Fawad @Trader_F_R</p>

欧元 做多 - CurrencyShares

能源业 ETF - SPDR

美国 WTI 原油 ETF

油气开采 ETF - SPDR

彭博美元指数 做多 - WisdomTree

油气服务 ETF - Market Vectors

标普全球能源股指数 ETF - iShares

美国布伦特原油期货基金

德银美元指数 做多 - PowerShares

美国油气勘探与生产 ETF - iShares

<p>EUR/USD 的预测受到地缘政治紧张局势，特别是伊朗威胁加大军事行动的影响，油价上涨带来了负面影响。尽管国际能源署（IEA）大幅释放了 4 亿桶应急储备，但油价依然高企，影响了风险偏好和货币价值。预计 EUR/USD 可能会跌破关键水平 1.1578，目标设定在 1.1500 和 1.1391。随着全球市场的不确定性持续增强，美元的走强被视为一种防御性策略</p>

<ul>
<li>EUR/USD forecast remains undermined as geopolitical tensions lift oil prices and the dollar</li>
<li>Energy risk: Iran warns it is switching from “reciprocal hits” to “continuous strikes” as IEA emergency oil reserve release not having the desired impact</li>
<li>EUR/USD technical analysis points to sub $1.15</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>欧元/美元的预测受到削弱，因为地缘政治紧张局势推高了油价和美元</li>
<li>能源风险：伊朗警告称将从 “互相打击” 转向 “持续打击”，因为国际能源署的紧急石油储备释放未能产生预期效果</li>
<li>欧元/美元技术分析显示低于 1.15 美元</li>
</ul>
</div><p>As has been the case in the last several days, nothing else but crude oil matters right now. And the with the EIA’s record oil reserves release unable to push prices lower today, this is keeping risk appetite downbeat, with stock markets struggling and currencies of oil importing regions lower. The latest US inflation data barely caused any movements in FX. Against a backdrop of still elevated oil prices, and the potential for prices to push even higher, we maintain a cautiously negative EUR/USD forecast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如过去几天的情况一样，现在唯一重要的就是原油。而且，由于 EIA 创纪录的石油储备释放未能在今天将价格压低，这使得风险偏好低迷，股市挣扎，石油进口地区的货币走低。最新的美国通胀数据几乎没有对外汇市场造成任何波动。在油价仍然高企的背景下，以及价格可能进一步上涨的潜力，我们对欧元/美元的预测保持谨慎的负面态度。</p>
</div><p>More on oil prices later but first let’s discuss the EUR/USD as it looks poised for a potential breakdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>稍后会讨论油价，但首先让我们讨论欧元/美元，因为它看起来有可能出现突破。</p>
</div><h2>EUR/USD forecast: Dollar continues to remain support on geopolitical tensions</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>欧元/美元预测：美元在地缘政治紧张局势中继续保持支撑</h2>
</div><p>The EUR/USD is driven by both a weakening euro due to the rising oil prices, but also a strengthening US dollar. The greenback is continuing to find support again as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East push oil prices higher and inject fresh uncertainty into global markets, while hurting currencies of oil-importing economic regions. With Brent crude climbing back towards $90 a barrel, investors appear to be leaning toward the greenback as a defensive play, even as the latest inflation data suggests price pressures were fairly calm heading into February. On an annual basis, headline inflation held at 2.4%, matching forecasts and unchanged from January. Inflation looked reasonably well behaved before the latest surge in oil prices. That’s the key caveat. Energy costs have a habit of feeding through into inflation expectations, and if crude continues climbing towards $100 a barrel, the market may start pricing in the risk of the Fed tightening, not loosening further.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧元/美元受到油价上涨导致的欧元疲软和美元走强的双重驱动。随着中东地缘政治紧张局势推高油价并给全球市场注入新的不确定性，美元再次找到支撑，同时伤害了石油进口经济地区的货币。随着布伦特原油价格回升至每桶 90 美元附近，投资者似乎倾向于将美元作为防御性投资，尽管最新的通胀数据显示，进入 2 月份时价格压力相对平稳。按年计算，整体通胀保持在 2.4%，与预期一致，且与 1 月份持平。在最新的油价飙升之前，通胀表现相对温和。这是一个关键的警告。能源成本往往会影响通胀预期，如果原油价格继续攀升至每桶 100 美元，市场可能会开始定价美联储收紧政策的风险，而不是进一步放松。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.03.11%20eurusd.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.03.11%20eurusd.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView.com</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView.com</p>
</div><p>Against this backdrop, the EUR/USD forecast leans bearish, and we could see the pair break below the key 1.1578 level – the low from January – on a daily closing basis. While we have seen the EUR/USD go below this level multiple times in recent days, it hasn’t been able to hold below it on a closing basis. If it finally cracks then 1.1500 could be the immediate target from here, with the August 2025 low of 1.1391 being the next obvious downside target. Resistance is now seen around 1.1606m 1.1637 and 1.1670.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种背景下，欧元/美元的预测偏向看跌，我们可能会看到该货币对在日线收盘时跌破关键的 1.1578 水平——1 月份的低点。尽管我们在最近几天看到欧元/美元多次跌破该水平，但在收盘时未能保持在该水平以下。如果最终突破，那么 1.1500 可能是从这里开始的直接目标，而 2025 年 8 月的低点 1.1391 将是下一个明显的下行目标。阻力现在被视为在 1.1606、1.1637 和 1.1670 附近。</p>
</div><h2>Crude oil barely reacts as EIA tap oil reserves - here's why</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>原油几乎没有反应，EIA 动用石油储备 - 原因在这里</h2>
</div><p>So, the IEA has confirmed that member states will release 400 million barrels from emergency reserves to help stabilise oil prices. How much of the disruption to global oil supplies from the Iran conflict that 400 million will actually make up for remains to be seen. It is difficult to say how much has been lost now that we are in day 12 of the conflict, with oil analysts unsure whether this release amount is enough. But judging by the reaction of oil prices, it looks like the market had discounted the release of 400 million barrels from reserves already. Prices have barely flinched. It looks like investors are not convinced this will have the desired effect and are probably expecting the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz to remain effectively closed for a long time, now with Iran suggesting it is switching from “reciprocal hits” to “continuous strikes.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，国际能源署已确认成员国将从紧急储备中释放 4 亿桶石油，以帮助稳定油价。400 万桶能在多大程度上弥补伊朗冲突对全球石油供应的干扰仍有待观察。由于冲突已进入第 12 天，石油分析师不确定这一释放量是否足够。但从油价的反应来看，市场似乎已经对从储备中释放 4 亿桶的消息进行了消化。价格几乎没有波动。看起来投资者并不相信这会产生预期效果，并可能预计霍尔木兹海峡的石油流动将长期有效关闭，现在伊朗暗示将从 “互相打击” 转向 “持续打击”。</p>
</div><h2>Middle East tensions push oil back toward $90</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>中东紧张局势将油价推回 90 美元附近</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.03.11%20brent%20updated.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.03.11%20brent%20updated.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView.com</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView.com</p>
</div><p>Crude oil prices have also moved higher after fresh warnings from Iran about the potential disruption of oil flows. According to reports, Tehran says it is shifting its military strategy from “reciprocal hits” to “continuous strikes,” a move that suggests the conflict could intensify rather than cool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在伊朗关于潜在石油流动中断的新警告后，原油价格也上涨。据报道，德黑兰表示正在将其军事战略从 “互相打击” 转向 “持续打击”，这一举动表明冲突可能加剧而不是平息。</p>
</div><p>Iranian officials also issued stark warnings about global oil supply. One military spokesperson reportedly said the United States would not be able to control oil prices, while also claiming Iran would not allow “even one litre of oil” to reach the US, Israel or their partners.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗官员还对全球石油供应发出了严厉警告。一位军事发言人 reportedly 表示，美国将无法控制油价，同时声称伊朗不会允许 “即使一升石油” 到达美国、以色列或他们的合作伙伴。</p>
</div><p>More notably, Iran suggested that any vessel or tanker heading toward those destinations could become a legitimate target, raising concerns about shipping routes and broader supply disruptions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更值得注意的是，伊朗暗示，任何前往这些目的地的船只或油轮都可能成为合法目标，这引发了对航运路线和更广泛供应中断的担忧。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<p>-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-- 作者：Fawad Razaqzada，市场分析师</p>
</div><p>Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Twitter 上关注 Fawad @Trader_F_R</p>
</div>

EUR/USD forecast undermined as crude holds ground despite strategic oil reserves release

Forex

尽管战略石油储备被释放，原油价格依然坚挺，导致欧元/美元的预测受到削弱