<p>交易周继续进行，目前在过去的两个交易日中，<strong>美元/日元</strong> 开始显示出重新的买入倾向，短期内累计涨幅超过 <strong>0.7%</strong>，有利于美元，并突显出日元的持续疲软。</p>
<p>目前，随着今天早些时候美国通胀数据的发布，买入压力获得了动力，使市场能够预期美联储可能的政策动态。在日本银行没有出现重大意外的情况下，美元似乎受益于一种可能在未来几天仍然相关的买入倾向。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></p>
<h2><strong>通胀数据日</strong></h2>
<p>在今天的交易中，美国发布了 2 月份的通胀数据。年同比 <strong>CPI</strong> 为 <strong>2.4%</strong>，完全符合预期，与之前的读数持平。</p>
<p>目前，基于近期趋势，通胀似乎在 2026 年初显示出明显的缓和。然而，重要的是要注意，它仍略高于美联储的目标 <strong>2.00%</strong>。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/United_States_Inflation_Rate_4.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="820" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/United_States_Inflation_Rate_4.png"/></p>
<p><em>来源：TradingEconomics</em></p>
<p>也就是说，必须考虑的是，最近的通胀发布伴随着评论，表明未来几个月价格可能不会出现明显的减速。这主要是因为本周观察到的原油价格的近期飙升尚未反映在今天的数据中，这可能最终会增加全球能源成本，并在未来的读数中产生额外的通胀压力。</p>
<p>事实上，尽管通胀数据没有显示出明显的加速，但美联储的预期中性货币政策展望并没有改变。这部分是由于持续的预期，即通胀可能会重新加速。</p>
<p>根据 <strong>CME 集团</strong>，利率概率表显示，基准利率在 3 月 18 日会议上保持在当前 <strong>3.75%</strong> 水平的可能性为 <strong>97.3%</strong>。此外，预计在今年 7 月 29 日的会议上，利率保持不变的概率超过 <strong>50%</strong>。这突显了围绕美联储的强中性预期，即使在今天的通胀数据发布之后。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/cme0311.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="451" height="407" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/cme0311.png"/></p>
<p><em>来源：CMEGROUP</em></p>
<p>这一发展尤其重要，因为只要对稳定利率的预期持续存在，美国国债市场可能会继续吸引投资。长期的稳定利率使得 10 年期国债收益率保持吸引力，这些债券目前被视为关键的避险资产之一。</p>
<p>因此，如果这种动态持续，持续的外国资本流入美国可能会增强美元相对于日元的需求，可能在短期内进一步加大美元/日元的买入压力。</p>
<h2><strong>日本银行没有惊喜</strong></h2>
<p>尽管日本银行的基准利率目前为 <strong>0.75%</strong>，是几十年来的最高水平之一，但并没有明确的信号或确认表明利率将在即将召开的会议上持续上升，包括定于 3 月 18 日至 19 日的下一次会议。</p>
<p>目前，中央银行和政府之间的观点仍然存在分歧。虽然日本银行认为通胀上升是一个越来越相关的因素，但政府并未完全认同进一步加息的想法。这创造了一个普遍谨慎的环境，可能会影响即将做出的决策中的中性货币政策立场。</p>
<p>考虑到这一点，重要的是要认识到，日本相对较低的利率可能降低了日元计价投资的吸引力，相较于美元等货币资产。除非市场感知到明确且一致的信号，表明日本利率可能进一步上升，否则在短期内可能难以建立对日元的持续需求。这反过来可能继续支持未来几天美元/日元的买入压力。</p>
<h2><strong>美元/日元的技术展望</strong></h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/USDJPY_2026-03-11_12-53-07.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1530" height="917" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/USDJPY_2026-03-11_12-53-07.png"/></p>
<p><em>来源：StoneX, Tradingview</em></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>没有什么能阻止上涨趋势：</strong> 在过去几个月中，美元/日元的平均价格走势保持了一条持续的上升趋势线，当前结构没有受到显著卖出动作的威胁。买入压力再次显示出主导力量，如果新的高点开始形成，这可能反映出在未来几天内当前上升趋势的更明显延伸。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>RSI：</strong> RSI 保持在中性 50 水平以上，表明过去 14 个交易日的平均买入动能变得相关。然而，该指标接近 70 水平——超买阈值，这可能暗示买入压力的潜在过剩，并为短期的修正回调打开了大门。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>MACD：</strong> MACD 直方图保持在零线以上，表明买入倾向继续主导短期移动平均动能。只要这种动态持续，买入压力在即将到来的交易中可能仍然相关。</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>关键水平：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>159.004 – 关键阻力：</strong> 对应于 2026 年的高点，是需要关注的主要看涨障碍。持续突破该水平可能巩固主导的买入倾向，并使当前趋势线的更激进延伸成为可能。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>156.301 – 短期障碍：</strong> 与 50 期移动平均线对齐的水平，可能成为短期修正回调的参考点。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>153.900 – 关键支撑位：</strong> 与近期低点相对应的水平。若跌破该区域，可能会威胁当前的看涨结构，并在接下来的交易中打开更明显的卖出倾向。</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>撰写者：Julian Pineda，CFA，CMT – 市场分析师</strong></p>
<p><strong>关注他：</strong> <strong>@julianpineda25</strong></p>

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<p>美元/日元货币对近期显示出重新的买入倾向，最近上涨超过 0.7%，这主要受到美国通胀数据的推动，CPI 为 2.4%。尽管通胀保持稳定，但对美联储利率不变的预期依然存在，增强了美元的吸引力。日本银行缺乏明确的加息信号也导致日元疲软。技术指标显示持续的买入动能，关键阻力位在 159.004。总体来看，短期内美元/日元的前景仍然看涨，除非货币政策或经济状况发生重大变化</p>

<p>The trading week continues and, for now, over the last two sessions, <strong>USD/JPY</strong> has begun to show a renewed buying bias, accumulating gains of more than <strong>0.7%</strong> in the short term in favor of the US dollar and highlighting consistent weakness in the Japanese yen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易周继续进行，目前在过去的两个交易日中，<strong>美元/日元</strong> 开始显示出重新的买入倾向，短期内累计涨幅超过 <strong>0.7%</strong>，有利于美元，并突显出日元的持续疲软。</p>
</div><p>At the moment, buying pressure has gained traction following the release of US inflation data earlier today, allowing markets to anticipate a potential policy dynamic from the Federal Reserve. In the absence of meaningful surprises from the Bank of Japan, the dollar appears to be benefiting from a buying bias that could remain relevant in the coming sessions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，随着今天早些时候美国通胀数据的发布，买入压力获得了动力，使市场能够预期美联储可能的政策动态。在日本银行没有出现重大意外的情况下，美元似乎受益于一种可能在未来几天仍然相关的买入倾向。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<h2><strong>Inflation Data Day</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>通胀数据日</strong></h2>
</div><p>During today’s session, inflation data for February in the United States were released. The annual <strong>CPI (Y/Y)</strong> came in at <strong>2.4%</strong>, exactly in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous reading.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在今天的交易中，美国发布了 2 月份的通胀数据。年同比 <strong>CPI</strong> 为 <strong>2.4%</strong>，完全符合预期，与之前的读数持平。</p>
</div><p>For now, inflation appears to have shown meaningful moderation in the early months of 2026 based on recent trends. However, it is important to note that it remains slightly above the Federal Reserve’s target of <strong>2.00%</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，基于近期趋势，通胀似乎在 2026 年初显示出明显的缓和。然而，重要的是要注意，它仍略高于美联储的目标 <strong>2.00%</strong>。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/United_States_Inflation_Rate_4.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/United_States_Inflation_Rate_4.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: TradingEconomics</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：TradingEconomics</em></p>
</div><p>That said, what must be considered is that the recent inflation release was accompanied by commentary suggesting that a clear deceleration in prices may not materialize in the coming months. This is largely because the recent spike in crude oil prices observed this week has not yet been reflected in today’s data, and this could eventually increase global energy costs and generate additional inflationary pressures in future readings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是说，必须考虑的是，最近的通胀发布伴随着评论，表明未来几个月价格可能不会出现明显的减速。这主要是因为本周观察到的原油价格的近期飙升尚未反映在今天的数据中，这可能最终会增加全球能源成本，并在未来的读数中产生额外的通胀压力。</p>
</div><p>In fact, despite the inflation data not showing a meaningful acceleration, the expected neutral monetary outlook for the Federal Reserve has not changed. This is partly due to ongoing expectations that inflation could reaccelerate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，尽管通胀数据没有显示出明显的加速，但美联储的预期中性货币政策展望并没有改变。这部分是由于持续的预期，即通胀可能会重新加速。</p>
</div><p>According to <strong>CME Group</strong>, the rate probability table shows a <strong>97.3%</strong> likelihood that the benchmark rate will remain at the current <strong>3.75%</strong> level for the March 18 meeting. Additionally, there is more than a <strong>50%</strong> probability that rates will remain unchanged through the July 29 meeting of this year. This highlights the prevailing sense of strong neutrality surrounding the Federal Reserve, even after today’s inflation data release.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 <strong>CME 集团</strong>，利率概率表显示，基准利率在 3 月 18 日会议上保持在当前 <strong>3.75%</strong> 水平的可能性为 <strong>97.3%</strong>。此外，预计在今年 7 月 29 日的会议上，利率保持不变的概率超过 <strong>50%</strong>。这突显了围绕美联储的强中性预期，即使在今天的通胀数据发布之后。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/cme0311.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/cme0311.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: CMEGROUP</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：CMEGROUP</em></p>
</div><p>This development is particularly relevant because as long as expectations for stable interest rates persist, the US Treasury bond market may continue to gain attractiveness. A prolonged period of steady rates allows 10-year Treasury yields to remain appealing, and these bonds are currently considered one of the key safe-haven assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一发展尤其重要，因为只要对稳定利率的预期持续存在，美国国债市场可能会继续吸引投资。长期的稳定利率使得 10 年期国债收益率保持吸引力，这些债券目前被视为关键的避险资产之一。</p>
</div><p>As a result, if this dynamic continues, consistent foreign capital inflows into the United States may strengthen dollar demand relative to the yen, potentially reinforcing buying pressure in USD/JPY in the short term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，如果这种动态持续，持续的外国资本流入美国可能会增强美元相对于日元的需求，可能在短期内进一步加大美元/日元的买入压力。</p>
</div><h2><strong>The Bank of Japan Does Not Surprise</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>日本银行没有惊喜</strong></h2>
</div><p>Although the Bank of Japan’s benchmark rate currently stands at <strong>0.75%</strong>, one of the highest levels seen in decades, there has been no clear signal or confirmation that rates will continue to rise consistently in upcoming meetings, including the next one scheduled between March 18 and 19.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管日本银行的基准利率目前为 <strong>0.75%</strong>，是几十年来的最高水平之一，但并没有明确的信号或确认表明利率将在即将召开的会议上持续上升，包括定于 3 月 18 日至 19 日的下一次会议。</p>
</div><p>For now, perspectives between the central bank and the government remain divided. While the Bank of Japan views rising inflation as an increasingly relevant factor, the government is not fully aligned with the idea of further rate hikes. This has created a broadly cautious environment that could influence a neutral monetary policy stance in upcoming decisions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，中央银行和政府之间的观点仍然存在分歧。虽然日本银行认为通胀上升是一个越来越相关的因素，但政府并未完全认同进一步加息的想法。这创造了一个普遍谨慎的环境，可能会影响即将做出的决策中的中性货币政策立场。</p>
</div><p>With this in mind, it is important to recognize that Japan’s relatively low interest rate may be reducing the appeal of yen-denominated investments compared to assets in currencies such as the US dollar. Unless markets perceive clear and consistent signals that Japanese interest rates could rise further, it may remain difficult to establish sustained demand for the yen in the short term. This, in turn, could continue to support buying pressure in USD/JPY in the coming sessions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到这一点，重要的是要认识到，日本相对较低的利率可能降低了日元计价投资的吸引力，相较于美元等货币资产。除非市场感知到明确且一致的信号，表明日本利率可能进一步上升，否则在短期内可能难以建立对日元的持续需求。这反过来可能继续支持未来几天美元/日元的买入压力。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Technical Outlook for USD/JPY</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>美元/日元的技术展望</strong></h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/USDJPY_2026-03-11_12-53-07.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/USDJPY_2026-03-11_12-53-07.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: StoneX, Tradingview</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：StoneX, Tradingview</em></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Nothing Stops the Uptrend:</strong> For several months, the average price movements of USD/JPY have maintained a consistent upward trendline, which remains intact as no significant selling moves have threatened the current structure. Buying pressure has once again shown dominant strength, and if new highs begin to form, this could reflect a more pronounced extension of the prevailing uptrend in the coming sessions.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>没有什么能阻止上涨趋势：</strong> 在过去几个月中，美元/日元的平均价格走势保持了一条持续的上升趋势线，当前结构没有受到显著卖出动作的威胁。买入压力再次显示出主导力量，如果新的高点开始形成，这可能反映出在未来几天内当前上升趋势的更明显延伸。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>RSI:</strong> The RSI remains above the neutral 50 level, suggesting that average buying momentum over the last 14 sessions has gained relevance. However, the indicator is approaching the 70 level — the overbought threshold — which may signal a potential excess of buying pressure and open the door for short-term corrective pullbacks.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>RSI：</strong> RSI 保持在中性 50 水平以上，表明过去 14 个交易日的平均买入动能变得相关。然而，该指标接近 70 水平——超买阈值，这可能暗示买入压力的潜在过剩，并为短期的修正回调打开了大门。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>MACD:</strong> The MACD histogram remains above the zero line, indicating that the buying bias continues to dominate short-term moving average momentum. As long as this dynamic persists, buying pressure may remain relevant in upcoming sessions.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>MACD：</strong> MACD 直方图保持在零线以上，表明买入倾向继续主导短期移动平均动能。只要这种动态持续，买入压力在即将到来的交易中可能仍然相关。</li>
</ul>
</div><p><strong>Key Levels:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>关键水平：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>159.004 – Key Resistance:</strong> Area corresponding to the 2026 highs and the main bullish barrier to monitor. A sustained move above this level could consolidate a dominant buying bias and enable a more aggressive extension of the current trendline.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>159.004 – 关键阻力：</strong> 对应于 2026 年的高点，是需要关注的主要看涨障碍。持续突破该水平可能巩固主导的买入倾向，并使当前趋势线的更激进延伸成为可能。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>156.301 – Near-Term Barrier:</strong> Level aligned with the 50-period moving average and a potential reference point for short-term corrective pullbacks.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>156.301 – 短期障碍：</strong> 与 50 期移动平均线对齐的水平，可能成为短期修正回调的参考点。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>153.900 – Key Support:</strong> Level corresponding to recent lows. Moves below this area could threaten the current bullish structure and open the door to a more relevant selling bias in the coming sessions.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>153.900 – 关键支撑位：</strong> 与近期低点相对应的水平。若跌破该区域，可能会威胁当前的看涨结构，并在接下来的交易中打开更明显的卖出倾向。</li>
</ul>
</div><p><strong>Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>撰写者：Julian Pineda，CFA，CMT – 市场分析师</strong></p>
</div><p><strong>Follow him on:</strong> <strong>@julianpineda25</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>关注他：</strong> <strong>@julianpineda25</strong></p>
</div>

美元/日元最新动态：美国消费者价格指数发布后，日元迅速贬值