<p>【新加坡】新加坡银行预计在未来几个月将面临 “温和的经营环境”，尽管最近地缘政治紧张局势的上升可能进一步增加了该行业前景的波动性，RHB 在周二（3 月 10 日）的报告中表示。</p>
<p>在这种背景下，RHB 将 DBS 和 OCBC 列为其首选，DBS 因其每股股息的可见性更好和约 6% 的更高股息收益率而 “略微领先”。它还表示，在不确定的环境中，更倾向于资产质量指标更强的银行。</p>
<p>至于 UOB，券商表示，尽管预计其 2026 财年的净收入将因信贷成本正常化而出现最强劲的反弹，但仍可能存在对其资产质量和准备金的 “持续担忧”。</p>
<p>该券商对银行业维持 “中性” 立场，对 DBS 和 OCBC 给予 “买入” 评级。报告中未对 UOB 给出评级。</p>
<p>RHB 对 DBS 的目标价为 63.50 新元，较该股周三收盘价 55.72 新元高出近 14%。与此同时，该券商对 OCBC 的目标价为 23.45 新元，较周三收盘价 20.86 新元高出 12.4%。</p>
<p>总体而言，RHB 表示当地银行符合其预期。</p>
<p>然而，它指出，由于贷款人面临低于经营收入线的偏差，DBS 的业绩处于估计范围的下限。DBS 因手续费和财务及投资收入下降而出现了季度环比大幅下滑。</p>
<p>在股息方面，DBS 和 OCBC 均符合预期，而 UOB 则 “略有失误”。</p>
<p>UOB 的每股股息在 2025 财年第四季度同比下降 39%，降至 0.71 新元，去年同期为 1.17 新元。</p>
<p>与此同时，DBS 的每股股息上涨 35%，达到 0.81 新元，去年同期为 0.60 新元，而 OCBC 的每股股息则增加 2%，达到 0.58 新元，去年同期为 0.57 新元。</p>
<h2>当地银行落后</h2>
<p>RHB 指出，尽管新加坡银行在 2026 年开局温和，但仍落后于区域同行。</p>
<p>“尽管该行业年初至今的总回报处于正值，但仍落后于泰国和马来西亚等市场的同行，而在国内，该行业则落后于更广泛的市场指数，” RHB 指出。</p>
<p>它强调，特别是 DBS 由于 2025 财年第四季度的业绩处于 “预期的下限”，而成为 “落后者”。与同行相比，其业绩相对较弱，引发了对潜在盈利下调的担忧。</p>
<p>尽管盈利反弹，UOB 年初至今的总回报仍然疲软。</p>
<p>OCBC 是唯一一家超出 RHB 预期的当地银行，2025 财年第四季度净利润同比增长，并对其财富业务持积极展望。</p>
<p>“此外，管理层倾向于利用其 25 亿新元资本回报计划的余额进行特别股息，而非在当前估值水平下进行股票回购，这应会受到长期股东的欢迎，” 报告指出。</p>
<h2>行业展望</h2>
<p>RHB 将该行业 2026 财年的净利润共识下调 1%，但其 2027 财年的盈利预测保持 “相对不变”。DBS 的盈利预测分别下调 2% 和 1% 至 2026 财年和 2027 财年。</p>
<p>在 2025 财年业绩发布后，预计 UOB 的 2026 财年净利润将下降 1%，而 OCBC 的 2027 财年盈利预测则上调 1%。</p>
<p>预计银行业的盈利将在 2026 财年同比反弹 5%，这得益于信贷成本降低 23 个基点，以及非利息收入的持续增长。</p>
<p>对银行盈利的潜在上行风险包括，如果美国联邦储备委员会降息，净利差强于预期，以及新加坡隔夜利率平均值（Sora）压力减轻，这一利率是新加坡的关键基准利率。</p>
<p>盈利也可能受到强劲的财富管理活动和提升手续费收入的财务流动的支持，同时信贷成本低于预期。</p>
<p>在下行方面，贷款增长疲软可能对该行业造成压力，而来自财务和市场活动的非利息收入可能会减弱。流动性流入的激增也可能使 Sora 低于预期，从而对利差施加额外压力。</p>

华侨银行

星展集团控股

<p>RHB 对新加坡银行 DBS 和 OCBC 持乐观态度，尽管预计由于地缘政治紧张局势，运营环境将温和且波动性增加。RHB 对这两家银行维持 “买入” 评级，目标价格分别设定为 63.50 新元（S$）和 23.45 新元（S$）。尽管 DBS 的业绩处于预期的下限，但 OCBC 表现优于预期。该券商将该行业 2026 财年的净利润预测下调了 1%，但预计收益将同比反弹 5%，这得益于较低的信贷成本和非利息收入的增长</p>

<p>[SINGAPORE] Singapore banks are expected to face a “modest operating environment” in the months ahead, although the recent rise in geopolitical tensions has likely injected further volatility into the sector’s outlook, said RHB in a Tuesday (Mar 10) note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>【新加坡】新加坡银行预计在未来几个月将面临 “温和的经营环境”，尽管最近地缘政治紧张局势的上升可能进一步增加了该行业前景的波动性，RHB 在周二（3 月 10 日）的报告中表示。</p>
</div><p>Against this backdrop, RHB named DBS and OCBC as its top picks, with DBS “slightly ahead” due to better dividend-per-share visibility and a higher dividend yield of about 6 per cent. It also said it prefers banks with stronger asset-quality metrics amid the uncertain environment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种背景下，RHB 将 DBS 和 OCBC 列为其首选，DBS 因其每股股息的可见性更好和约 6% 的更高股息收益率而 “略微领先”。它还表示，在不确定的环境中，更倾向于资产质量指标更强的银行。</p>
</div><p>As for UOB , the brokerage said that there could still be “lingering concerns” over its asset quality and provision buffers even though its forecasted net income for FY2026 is expected to chalk up the strongest rebound as credit cost normalises.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>至于 UOB，券商表示，尽管预计其 2026 财年的净收入将因信贷成本正常化而出现最强劲的反弹，但仍可能存在对其资产质量和准备金的 “持续担忧”。</p>
</div><p>The brokerage maintained its “neutral” stance on the banking sector, with a “buy” rating for DBS and OCBC. A rating for UOB was not given in the report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该券商对银行业维持 “中性” 立场，对 DBS 和 OCBC 给予 “买入” 评级。报告中未对 UOB 给出评级。</p>
</div><p>RHB’s target price of S$63.50 for DBS was almost 14 per cent higher than the counter’s Wednesday closing price of S$55.72. Meanwhile, the brokerage’s target price of S$23.45 for OCBC was 12.4 per cent higher than the closing price of S$20.86 on Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>RHB 对 DBS 的目标价为 63.50 新元，较该股周三收盘价 55.72 新元高出近 14%。与此同时，该券商对 OCBC 的目标价为 23.45 新元，较周三收盘价 20.86 新元高出 12.4%。</p>
</div><p>Overall, RHB said that the local banks met its expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体而言，RHB 表示当地银行符合其预期。</p>
</div><p>However, it noted that DBS results came in at the lower end of the estimate range due to the lender facing deviations below the operating income line. DBS posted a sharp quarter-on-quarter drop caused by lower fees and treasury and investment income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，它指出，由于贷款人面临低于经营收入线的偏差，DBS 的业绩处于估计范围的下限。DBS 因手续费和财务及投资收入下降而出现了季度环比大幅下滑。</p>
</div><p>Dividend wise, both DBS and OCBC met estimates, though UOB was “a slight miss”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在股息方面，DBS 和 OCBC 均符合预期，而 UOB 则 “略有失误”。</p>
</div><p>UOB’s dividend per share fell 39 per cent year on year to S$0.71 in Q4 FY2025, from S$1.17 in the corresponding year-ago period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>UOB 的每股股息在 2025 财年第四季度同比下降 39%，降至 0.71 新元，去年同期为 1.17 新元。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, DBS’ dividend per share climbed 35 per cent to S$0.81, from S$0.60, while OCBC’s increased by 2 per cent to S$0.58, from S$0.57.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，DBS 的每股股息上涨 35%，达到 0.81 新元，去年同期为 0.60 新元，而 OCBC 的每股股息则增加 2%，达到 0.58 新元，去年同期为 0.57 新元。</p>
</div><h2>Local banks lagging</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>当地银行落后</h2>
</div><p>RHB noted that while Singapore banks started 2026 on a modest note, they still fall behind regional peers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>RHB 指出，尽管新加坡银行在 2026 年开局温和，但仍落后于区域同行。</p>
</div><p>“While the sector’s year-to-date total returns is in positive territory, it has lagged that of peers in markets such as Thailand and Malaysia while domestically, the sector is trailing the broader market index,” RHB noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“尽管该行业年初至今的总回报处于正值，但仍落后于泰国和马来西亚等市场的同行，而在国内，该行业则落后于更广泛的市场指数，” RHB 指出。</p>
</div><p>It highlighted that DBS in particular was a “laggard” due to a combination of Q4 FY2025 results being at the “lower end of expectations”. It also had a comparatively softer set of results compared to peers, stoking concerns of potential earnings downgrades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它强调，特别是 DBS 由于 2025 财年第四季度的业绩处于 “预期的下限”，而成为 “落后者”。与同行相比，其业绩相对较弱，引发了对潜在盈利下调的担忧。</p>
</div><p>UOB’s year-to-date total returns remained muted despite the earnings rebound.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管盈利反弹，UOB 年初至今的总回报仍然疲软。</p>
</div><p>OCBC was the only local bank that outperformed RHB’s expectations, posting a positive year-on-year growth in net profit for Q4 2025, alongside a positive outlook for its wealth business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>OCBC 是唯一一家超出 RHB 预期的当地银行，2025 财年第四季度净利润同比增长，并对其财富业务持积极展望。</p>
</div><p>“In addition, management’s preference to utilise the balance of its S$2.5 billion capital return plan for special dividends over share buybacks given current valuation levels should be well received by long term shareholders,” noted the report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“此外，管理层倾向于利用其 25 亿新元资本回报计划的余额进行特别股息，而非在当前估值水平下进行股票回购，这应会受到长期股东的欢迎，” 报告指出。</p>
</div><h2>Sector outlook</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>行业展望</h2>
</div><p>RHB lowered its FY2026 net profit consensus by 1 per cent for the sector but its FY2027 earnings forecasts stayed “relatively unchanged”. Earnings forecasts for DBS were lowered by 2 per cent and 1 per cent for FY2026 and FY2027, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>RHB 将该行业 2026 财年的净利润共识下调 1%，但其 2027 财年的盈利预测保持 “相对不变”。DBS 的盈利预测分别下调 2% 和 1% 至 2026 财年和 2027 财年。</p>
</div><p>Following FY2025 results, UOB’s FY2026 net profit is forecast to decrease by 1 per cent, while OCBC’s FY2027 forecast earnings were raised by 1 per cent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 财年业绩发布后，预计 UOB 的 2026 财年净利润将下降 1%，而 OCBC 的 2027 财年盈利预测则上调 1%。</p>
</div><p>Earnings of the banking sector are expected to rebound by 5 per cent year on year for FY2026, underpinned by lower credit cost of 23 basis points, and continued non-interest income growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计银行业的盈利将在 2026 财年同比反弹 5%，这得益于信贷成本降低 23 个基点，以及非利息收入的持续增长。</p>
</div><p>Potential upside risks to banks’ earnings include a stronger-than-expected net interest margin if the US Federal Reserve cuts rates, as well as milder pressure on the Singapore Overnight Rate Average (Sora), which is the key benchmark interest rate in Singapore.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对银行盈利的潜在上行风险包括，如果美国联邦储备委员会降息，净利差强于预期，以及新加坡隔夜利率平均值（Sora）压力减轻，这一利率是新加坡的关键基准利率。</p>
</div><p>Earnings could also be supported by robust wealth management activity and treasury flows that lift fee income, alongside lower-than-expected credit costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>盈利也可能受到强劲的财富管理活动和提升手续费收入的财务流动的支持，同时信贷成本低于预期。</p>
</div><p>On the downside, weaker loan growth could weigh on the sector, while non-interest income from treasury and markets activities may soften. A surge in liquidity inflows could also push Sora lower than expected, placing additional pressure on margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在下行方面，贷款增长疲软可能对该行业造成压力，而来自财务和市场活动的非利息收入可能会减弱。流动性流入的激增也可能使 Sora 低于预期，从而对利差施加额外压力。</p>
</div>

RHB 对星展集团控股和华侨银行持乐观看法，但预计由于地缘政治紧张局势，银行业将面临更多波动