<p>海外扩张和商品繁荣使得在大陆交易的中国公司在盈利方面有能力超越其离岸上市的同行，自中东冲突爆发以来，人民币计价股票的表现持续优于其他股票。根据彭博社的数据，300 家最大的大陆上市公司在即将到来的财报季节中，预计 2025 年的平均利润增长率为 6.3%，而香港交易所基准恒生指数中的公司增长率仅为 2%。财报季节将持续到 4 月底。上海汇辰资产管理公司的基金经理戴铭表示：“大陆上市公司的盈利显示出上升的趋势，这些公司在海外扩展业务方面做得非常好。” 他补充道：“我们在香港市场看到的情况不同，竞争加剧，且由于中国消费疲软，利润空间受到侵蚀。这两个市场的分化将继续。” 在中国的在岸交易所，人民币计价股票也主要集中在能源和工业等传统行业，这些行业在过去一年中由于地缘政治紧张局势和与人工智能相关的能源需求上升而受益。香港市场上，中国科技公司占主导地位，阿里巴巴集团、京东和美团在快速配送市场中陷入了激烈的价格战。盈利表现的差异可能巩固大陆上市股票相对于香港股票的优势，后者在美国与伊朗战争爆发后，由于对全球资本流动的更大暴露，市场情绪依然脆弱。本月恒生指数下跌近 3%，而沪深 300 几乎没有变化。根据华泰证券的分析，非金属矿产、化工和电力设备等行业的公司受益于产品价格上涨和利用率提高。同时，近 60% 的大陆上市公司在销售增长中提到海外市场的贡献。宁德时代（Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd）是受益者之一。该公司在 2025 年报告净收入增长 42% 时表示，海外销售占其总销售额的 30%，是 2020 年比例的两倍。在香港交易所，中国科技巨头预计将因激烈竞争和消费支出疲软而拖累整体盈利。电商巨头京东上周表示，去年净利润暴跌 53%，原因是对即时配送和其他新业务的重投入。根据彭博社对分析师的共识预测，阿里巴巴的全年利润预计较 2024 年下降 14%，因为这家总部位于杭州的公司进入了即时配送领域。阿里巴巴拥有《南华早报》。竞争对手美团预计在 2025 年将再次亏损 239 亿元人民币（约合 34.8 亿美元）。CGS 国际的分析师钱艾迪表示：“电商平台之间的内卷式竞争虽然亏损有所收窄，但仍在持续，为盈利带来了持续的阻力。” 根据瑞银集团的分析，大陆上市股票（也称为 A 股）的盈利增长在今年可能加速至 8%，这得益于中国名义经济增长加快和生产者价格下降幅度较小。瑞士银行表示，材料、信息技术、工业和非必需消费品领域的公司在过去一个月中盈利预测的增长幅度最大。除了盈利动能，全球投资者最近兴起的所谓 “光环交易”（Halo trade）——即重资产、低过时风险的投资策略——作为抵御人工智能取代的保护伞，可能会为大陆股价带来更多的利好，因为许多公司拥有大量的实物资产，摩根士丹利表示。“在财报季节来临之际，盈利动能对 [大陆] A 股有利，” 摩根士丹利的策略师刘金戈表示。“这些因素，加上中国 A 股与全球股票的历史低贝塔值，受到中国资本账户封闭和国内股市外资持股比例低的支撑，表明 A 股在全球地缘政治和人工智能干扰的担忧减退之前，将继续优于香港股票。”</p>

易方达国证价值100ETF

广发中证全指家用电器ETF

博时龙头家电ETF

<p>在大陆交易的中国公司预计将优于其离岸同行，预计 2025 年的平均利润增长为 6.3%，而香港上市公司的利润增长仅为 2%。这种差异归因于成功的海外扩张和商品繁荣。传统行业如能源和工业的公司正在受益，而香港的科技巨头则面临激烈竞争和疲弱的消费支出带来的挑战。分析师预测，受中国经济增长和有利市场条件的支持，大陆股票的盈利势头将持续</p>

<p>Overseas expansion and a commodity boom have put Chinese companies trading on the mainland in a position to beat their offshore-listed peers in earnings, cementing the outperformance of yuan-denominated stocks since the outbreak of Middle East hostility. The 300 largest mainland-traded companies may post average 2025 profit growth of 6.3 per cent during the coming earnings season, while the growth rate for the firms in the Hong Kong exchange’s benchmark Hang Seng Index would be a mere 2 per cent, according to Bloomberg data. The earnings season runs through the end of April. “Earnings for mainland-listed companies are showing signs of trending up, and those companies are really doing a good job in business transformations by going overseas,” said Dai Ming, a fund manager at Huichen Asset Management in Shanghai. “What we’ve seen in the Hong Kong market is different as competition is intensified and margins are eroded by pretty weak consumption in China. The bifurcation of the two markets will continue.” Yuan-denominated stocks trading on China’s onshore exchanges also skew heavily to traditional sectors like energy and industrials, which have gained as commodity prices spiked over the past year amid geopolitical tensions and rising energy demand tied to artificial intelligence. In Hong Kong, where Chinese tech companies dominate, bellwethers Alibaba Group Holding, JD.com and Meituan have been mired in a costly price war in the fast delivery market. The divergence in earnings performance could cement the edge mainland-listed stocks have over those in Hong Kong, where sentiment remains fragile after the eruption of the US-Iran war due to greater exposure to global capital flows. The Hang Seng gauge has dropped nearly 3 per cent this month, while the CSI 300 is virtually unchanged. Companies in non-ferrous metals, chemicals and power equipment benefited the most from increased product prices and improved utilisation, according to Huatai Securities. Meanwhile, nearly 60 per cent of the mainland-listed companies that registered sales increases flagged contributions from overseas markets, it said. Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd, known as CATL, is one of the beneficiaries. As it reported a 42 per cent increase in net income for 2025, the world’s biggest maker of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles said this week in its annual results that overseas sales accounted for 30 per cent of its total sales, double the proportion in 2020. On the Hong Kong exchange, Chinese tech giants are expected to drag down general earnings due to cutthroat competition and weaker consumer spending. E-commerce giant JD.com last week said that net profit plunged 53 per cent last year, due to heavy investments in instant delivery and other new businesses. Alibaba’s full-year profit probably fell 14 per cent from 2024 based on the international accounting standard, according to the consensus estimate of analysts polled by Bloomberg, as the Hangzhou-based company made its foray into the instant delivery segment. Alibaba owns the South China Morning Post. Rival Meituan is expected to return to a loss of 23.9 billion yuan (US$3.48 billion) in 2025, the projection showed. “The involution-style competition among e-commerce platforms has seen losses narrowing but still persisting, creating sustained headwinds for earnings,” said Edith Qian, an analyst at CGS International in Hong Kong. Earnings growth for mainland-listed stocks, also known as A shares, could accelerate to 8 per cent this year, buoyed by China’s faster nominal economic growth and the smaller decline in producer prices, according to UBS Group. The Swiss bank said that companies in materials, information technology, industrials and discretionary consumer goods saw the biggest increases in earnings forecasts over the past month. Barring earnings momentum, the recent flourishing of the so-called Halo trade among global investors – short for heavy assets, low obsolescence – as a shield from AI displacement could add more tailwinds to mainland share prices, as many companies own large amounts of physical assets, according to Goldman Sachs. “Earnings momentum is in [mainland] A shares’ favour in the lead-up to the reporting season,” said Kinger Lau, a strategist at Goldman. “These, together with China A shares’ historically low beta to global equities, underpinned by China’s closed capital account and low foreign ownership in the domestic equity market, suggest that A shares would continue to outperform Hong Kong shares until the concerns over global geopolitics and AI disruption recede.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>海外扩张和商品繁荣使得在大陆交易的中国公司在盈利方面有能力超越其离岸上市的同行，自中东冲突爆发以来，人民币计价股票的表现持续优于其他股票。根据彭博社的数据，300 家最大的大陆上市公司在即将到来的财报季节中，预计 2025 年的平均利润增长率为 6.3%，而香港交易所基准恒生指数中的公司增长率仅为 2%。财报季节将持续到 4 月底。上海汇辰资产管理公司的基金经理戴铭表示：“大陆上市公司的盈利显示出上升的趋势，这些公司在海外扩展业务方面做得非常好。” 他补充道：“我们在香港市场看到的情况不同，竞争加剧，且由于中国消费疲软，利润空间受到侵蚀。这两个市场的分化将继续。” 在中国的在岸交易所，人民币计价股票也主要集中在能源和工业等传统行业，这些行业在过去一年中由于地缘政治紧张局势和与人工智能相关的能源需求上升而受益。香港市场上，中国科技公司占主导地位，阿里巴巴集团、京东和美团在快速配送市场中陷入了激烈的价格战。盈利表现的差异可能巩固大陆上市股票相对于香港股票的优势，后者在美国与伊朗战争爆发后，由于对全球资本流动的更大暴露，市场情绪依然脆弱。本月恒生指数下跌近 3%，而沪深 300 几乎没有变化。根据华泰证券的分析，非金属矿产、化工和电力设备等行业的公司受益于产品价格上涨和利用率提高。同时，近 60% 的大陆上市公司在销售增长中提到海外市场的贡献。宁德时代（Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd）是受益者之一。该公司在 2025 年报告净收入增长 42% 时表示，海外销售占其总销售额的 30%，是 2020 年比例的两倍。在香港交易所，中国科技巨头预计将因激烈竞争和消费支出疲软而拖累整体盈利。电商巨头京东上周表示，去年净利润暴跌 53%，原因是对即时配送和其他新业务的重投入。根据彭博社对分析师的共识预测，阿里巴巴的全年利润预计较 2024 年下降 14%，因为这家总部位于杭州的公司进入了即时配送领域。阿里巴巴拥有《南华早报》。竞争对手美团预计在 2025 年将再次亏损 239 亿元人民币（约合 34.8 亿美元）。CGS 国际的分析师钱艾迪表示：“电商平台之间的内卷式竞争虽然亏损有所收窄，但仍在持续，为盈利带来了持续的阻力。” 根据瑞银集团的分析，大陆上市股票（也称为 A 股）的盈利增长在今年可能加速至 8%，这得益于中国名义经济增长加快和生产者价格下降幅度较小。瑞士银行表示，材料、信息技术、工业和非必需消费品领域的公司在过去一个月中盈利预测的增长幅度最大。除了盈利动能，全球投资者最近兴起的所谓 “光环交易”（Halo trade）——即重资产、低过时风险的投资策略——作为抵御人工智能取代的保护伞，可能会为大陆股价带来更多的利好，因为许多公司拥有大量的实物资产，摩根士丹利表示。“在财报季节来临之际，盈利动能对 [大陆] A 股有利，” 摩根士丹利的策略师刘金戈表示。“这些因素，加上中国 A 股与全球股票的历史低贝塔值，受到中国资本账户封闭和国内股市外资持股比例低的支撑，表明 A 股在全球地缘政治和人工智能干扰的担忧减退之前，将继续优于香港股票。”</p>
</div>

Chinese firms with success in global push poised to reap profit rewards

南华早报

上证180价值ETF

上证指数

恒生中国企业

恒生综合指数

贝肯能源

易方达中证绿色电力ETF

国泰中证煤炭ETF

安硕A50

汇添富沪深300指数(LOF)C

嘉实上证科创板工业机械ETF

华夏沪深三百-R

华夏沪深三百

美的集团

沪深300

广发中证全指电力ETF

富国中证全指家用电器ETF

国泰中证全指家用电器ETF

国企指数

南方恒生指数ETF

华夏中证电网设备主题ETF

三和管桩

恒生指数

综合指数

国泰中证细分机械设备产业主题ETF

天顺股份

盈富基金

国泰中证机床ETF

易方达中证家电龙头ETF

浙商沪深300指数增强(LOF)A

在全球市场扩张中取得成功的中国公司有望获得丰厚的利润回报