<p>[新加坡] 在持续的军事打击和伊朗战争引发的油价飙升中，全球市场的波动性加剧。</p>
<p>全球股市因剧烈波动而受到冲击，油价一度飙升至每桶 100 美元以上，随后又因美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示战争可能 “很快” 结束而回落。周四（3 月 12 日），布伦特油价再次突破 100 美元，此前国际能源署宣布创纪录的储备释放未能抑制油价。</p>
<p>美元也有所升值，截至周四，美元/新加坡元汇率为 1.2758。</p>
<p>但中东的军事打击仍在继续；伊朗在周三对以色列和其他目标进行了反击，至少有三艘船只在海湾遭到袭击。</p>
<p>在如此不可预测的情况下，投资者应如何应对当前市场的极端波动？以下是行业参与者的看法。</p>
<h2>投资者应该趁低买入吗？</h2>
<p>自 2 月 28 日美国和以色列袭击伊朗以来，从亚洲到欧洲的市场都遭遇了重创，冲突仍未解决。新加坡海峡时报指数、日本日经 225 指数和香港恒生指数等关键亚洲市场与战争前相比仍显著下跌。</p>
<p>CGS 国际分析师林秀琪指出，投资者对趁低买入的欲望或反应依然 “强烈”。</p>
<p>她在周二的报告中写道：“然而，我们认为当前的宏观条件（如油价冲击、就业疲软和持续的通胀）表明，在油供应真正恢复之前应保持谨慎。”</p>
<p>这一观点得到了 Robeco 的客户投资组合经理莫里斯·梅耶斯的认同，他表示，现在判断市场下跌是否值得 “买入” 还 “为时尚早”。</p>
<p>“我们需要看到真正的重新定价……（此外）还要了解霍尔木兹海峡将关闭多久，” 他在《商业时报》上说道。</p>
<p>CGS 国际的林秀琪指出，目前约 85% 的原油供应通过霍尔木兹海峡流向亚洲市场。</p>
<p>“这表明美中协议对伊朗战争也很重要，” 她说。</p>
<p>OCBC 财富顾问负责人安布表示，投资组合投资者可以在市场下跌时购买蓝筹股，并随着时间的推移增加投资，以追求长期增长。</p>
<p>他指出，持有大量美国科技股的投资者可以利用这个机会进行行业轮换，并用周期性股票（如能源和原材料）以及公用事业等防御性股票来增强投资组合。</p>
<p>“投资者可以考虑将资金分配到蓝筹股，关注可防御的股息。同时，小型和中型企业可能会受益于近期政府的举措，” 他说。</p>
<h2>新加坡及亚洲市场</h2>
<p>然而，即使在冲突中，他对日本以外的亚洲市场，尤其是新加坡市场，仍持 “乐观态度”。</p>
<p>“新加坡（市场）在过去五年中表现优于全球股票，被视为政策稳定、经济韧性和货币稳定的区域避风港，” 他在周三表示。</p>
<p>CGS 国际分析师描绘了一个更为复杂的局面，各行业在新加坡的影响各不相同。</p>
<p>他们在周二写道：“由于冲突可能导致需求增加的行业包括航空航天和国防、能源生产商、商品参与者以及物流仓储运营商或房东；供应链运营商、在中东市场有曝光的酒店业者和电子商务参与者可能会受到不利影响。”</p>
<p>农业和资本品股票，如扬子江造船、胜科工业和中国航空油，可能面临因能源价格上涨或国防支出增加而带来的盈利上行风险——如果局势持续时间较长。</p>
<p>“相反，航空和陆路运输股票，如新加坡航空和 SATS，可能会因燃料价格上涨和货运物流中断而受到负面影响，” 分析师表示。</p>
<p>“科技制造类股票，如纳米膜，以及互联网服务，可能会因美元走强而受到影响——无论是汇率转换，还是需求减弱。”</p>
<h2>黄金</h2>
<p>观察人士表示，黄金作为避险资产的强大传统特性在此时仍然吸引着投资者。</p>
<p>标准 Chartered 的投资策略师安东尼·纳布对黄金持 “超配” 态度，三个月的预测为每盎司 5250 美元。</p>
<p>“虽然黄金目前受益于其作为地缘政治对冲的战术角色，但我们的基本预期仍然是冲突将相对短暂，” 他在 3 月 6 日的报告中写道。</p>
<p>“在这种情况下，我们预计黄金将主要受到其结构性趋势的驱动，包括投资组合多样化和中央银行的购买。”</p>
<p>这为在价格回调时购买黄金提供了理由，考虑到其作为 “结构性对冲” 的地位，银行的其他分析师表示。</p>
<p>黄金的回调并不削弱其在地缘政治动荡期间作为对冲工具的作用，State Street 投资管理的亚太区黄金策略师罗宾·崔表示。</p>
<p>“短期内黄金价格的波动往往反映了获利了结、美元走强或利率预期的变化，即使潜在的不确定性仍然很高。”</p>
<p>然而，XS.com 的高级市场分析师安东尼·迪贾科莫表示，由于美元走强和美国国债收益率上升，贵金属的涨幅可能 “有限”。</p>
<p>“美元走强通常对黄金构成负面影响，因为这使得持有其他货币的投资者购买黄金的成本更高，从而降低其作为投资资产的吸引力，” 他在周三表示。</p>
<p>因此，在战争期间，贵金属可能会在美国资产走强的情况下经历 “有限的上行空间”。</p>
<p>“随着投资者等待关于冲突演变和美国通胀走势的更明确信号，贵金属的表现可能会与美元的波动和对美联储货币政策的预期紧密相关，” Di Giacomo 表示。</p>
<h2>避险货币</h2>
<p>虽然投资者关注传统的避险货币，如美元和日元，但分析师对这对货币的看法不一。</p>
<p>来自渣打银行的投资策略师 Iris Yuen 表示，考虑到该地区当前的波动性，日元在当前环境下不太可能成为最可靠的避险货币。</p>
<p>“日本是世界上最大的原油进口国之一，约 95% 的原油和 11% 的液化天然气来自中东，” 她指出。</p>
<p>考虑到大约 70% 的石油通过霍尔木兹海峡运输，该亚洲国家特别容易受到运输和供应风险的影响。</p>
<p>根据 Maybank 集团研究的报告，美元/日元一度回落至 157.64，此前油价下跌。</p>
<p>“这一点是由于特朗普的评论，他表示冲突将 ‘很快’ 结束，行动 ‘远远超出’ 其四到五周的计划，” 分析师写道。</p>
<p>与此同时，美元/瑞士法郎对货币成为焦点，瑞士法郎成为更具韧性的货币之一。</p>
<p>“在美国和以色列对伊朗采取行动后，该货币对最初走强，突显了瑞士法郎的避险特性，” Maybank 的分析师指出。“考虑到当前的不确定性，瑞士法郎的韧性应作为避险选择持续存在。”</p>
<p>“然而，瑞士法郎的单边升值，尤其是对欧元的升值，可能会受到瑞士国家银行的干预，” 他们补充道。</p>

汇添富中证油气资源ETF

金属采矿 ETF - SPDR

全球黄金矿业股 MSCI ETF - iShares

<p>全球市场因伊朗危机而经历波动，油价波动，股市下跌。分析师建议投资者在考虑抄底时要谨慎，指出宏观经济条件如油价冲击和通货膨胀。一些人建议关注蓝筹股和行业轮动，而另一些人则强调亚洲，特别是新加坡的潜在机会。黄金被视为避险资产，预计在地缘政治紧张局势中价格将上涨。总体而言，形势仍然不确定，投资者被建议谨慎应对</p>

<p>[SINGAPORE] Volatility has seized global markets amid ongoing military strikes and spikes in oil prices from the outbreak of the Iran war.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[新加坡] 在持续的军事打击和伊朗战争引发的油价飙升中，全球市场的波动性加剧。</p>
</div><p>Stock markets everywhere have been upended by wild swings, and oil prices hit highs and then retreated to below US$100 a barrel in reaction to US President Donald Trump’s comment that the war could end “very soon”. On Thursday (Mar 12), Brent oil surged past US$100 again when the announcement by the International Energy Agency on a record release of reserves failed to rein prices in.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球股市因剧烈波动而受到冲击，油价一度飙升至每桶 100 美元以上，随后又因美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示战争可能 “很快” 结束而回落。周四（3 月 12 日），布伦特油价再次突破 100 美元，此前国际能源署宣布创纪录的储备释放未能抑制油价。</p>
</div><p>The US dollar has appreciated as well, with the USD/SGD pair at 1.2758 as at Thursday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元也有所升值，截至周四，美元/新加坡元汇率为 1.2758。</p>
</div><p>But military strikes are continuing in the Middle East; Iran fired back at Israel and other targets on Wednesday, even as at least three ships took hits in the Gulf.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但中东的军事打击仍在继续；伊朗在周三对以色列和其他目标进行了反击，至少有三艘船只在海湾遭到袭击。</p>
</div><p>In such unpredictable circumstances, how should investors navigate extreme fluctuations in present markets? Here is what industry players say.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在如此不可预测的情况下，投资者应如何应对当前市场的极端波动？以下是行业参与者的看法。</p>
</div><h2>Should investors buy the dip?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投资者应该趁低买入吗？</h2>
</div><p>Markets from Asia to Europe tumbled after US and Israel attacked Iran on Feb 28, sparking a conflict that remains unresolved. Key Asia markets such as Singapore’s Straits Times Index, Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index are still significantly down compared to before the war.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2 月 28 日美国和以色列袭击伊朗以来，从亚洲到欧洲的市场都遭遇了重创，冲突仍未解决。新加坡海峡时报指数、日本日经 225 指数和香港恒生指数等关键亚洲市场与战争前相比仍显著下跌。</p>
</div><p>The desire or reflex to buy the dip remains “strong” among investors, noted CGS International analyst Lim Siew Khee.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CGS 国际分析师林秀琪指出，投资者对趁低买入的欲望或反应依然 “强烈”。</p>
</div><p>She wrote in a note on Tuesday: “However, we think current macro conditions (such as an oil shock, combined with weak employment and sticky inflation) suggest caution until there is a genuine resumption of oil supply.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>她在周二的报告中写道：“然而，我们认为当前的宏观条件（如油价冲击、就业疲软和持续的通胀）表明，在油供应真正恢复之前应保持谨慎。”</p>
</div><p>This sentiment was echoed by Maurice Meijers, client portfolio manager at Robeco, who said it is “too early” to ascertain whether market dips are worth “buying into” right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一观点得到了 Robeco 的客户投资组合经理莫里斯·梅耶斯的认同，他表示，现在判断市场下跌是否值得 “买入” 还 “为时尚早”。</p>
</div><p>“We will need to see a real repricing … (on top of) understanding how long the Strait of Hormuz will be closed,” he told <em>The Business Times.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们需要看到真正的重新定价……（此外）还要了解霍尔木兹海峡将关闭多久，” 他在《商业时报》上说道。</p>
</div><p>Around 85 per cent of the crude oil supply passing through the Strait of Hormuz now travels to Asian markets, noted CGS International’s Lim.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CGS 国际的林秀琪指出，目前约 85% 的原油供应通过霍尔木兹海峡流向亚洲市场。</p>
</div><p>“This suggests that a US/China deal is also important to the war in Iran,” she said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这表明美中协议对伊朗战争也很重要，” 她说。</p>
</div><p>Chez Anbu, head of wealth advisory from OCBC, said that portfolio investors could pick up blue chips on dips – and increase exposure over time, under their drive for long-term growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>OCBC 财富顾问负责人安布表示，投资组合投资者可以在市场下跌时购买蓝筹股，并随着时间的推移增加投资，以追求长期增长。</p>
</div><p>He noted that investors with significant exposures to US tech plays could use this opportunity to undertake sectoral rotation and bolster this portfolio with cyclicals, such as energy and materials and defensives such as utilities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他指出，持有大量美国科技股的投资者可以利用这个机会进行行业轮换，并用周期性股票（如能源和原材料）以及公用事业等防御性股票来增强投资组合。</p>
</div><p>“Investors can consider strategies to allocate to blue chips, focus on defensible dividends. At the same time, small and mid-caps may benefit from recent government initiatives,” he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“投资者可以考虑将资金分配到蓝筹股，关注可防御的股息。同时，小型和中型企业可能会受益于近期政府的举措，” 他说。</p>
</div><h2>Singapore, Asia markets</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>新加坡及亚洲市场</h2>
</div><p>However, even amid the conflict, he still holds a “favourable view” of Asia ex-Japan markets, and in particular, that of Singapore’s.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，即使在冲突中，他对日本以外的亚洲市场，尤其是新加坡市场，仍持 “乐观态度”。</p>
</div><p>“Singapore (markets) have outperformed global equities in the past five years, and it is seen as a regional safe haven backed by policy stability, a resilient economy and a steady currency,” he said on Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“新加坡（市场）在过去五年中表现优于全球股票，被视为政策稳定、经济韧性和货币稳定的区域避风港，” 他在周三表示。</p>
</div><p>CGS International analysts paint a more nuanced picture, one with varied consequences among industries in Singapore.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CGS 国际分析师描绘了一个更为复杂的局面，各行业在新加坡的影响各不相同。</p>
</div><p>They wrote on Tuesday: “Sectors that could see increased demand arising from the conflict include aerospace and defence, energy producers and commodity players and logistics warehouse operators or landlords; supply-chain operators, hospitality players with exposure to the Middle East markets and e-commerce players could be adversely affected.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他们在周二写道：“由于冲突可能导致需求增加的行业包括航空航天和国防、能源生产商、商品参与者以及物流仓储运营商或房东；供应链运营商、在中东市场有曝光的酒店业者和电子商务参与者可能会受到不利影响。”</p>
</div><p>Agribusiness and capital goods stocks such as Yangzijiang Shipbuilding , Sembcorp Industries and China Aviation Oil could face earnings upside risks on higher energy prices, or increased defence spending – if the situation is long-drawn.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>农业和资本品股票，如扬子江造船、胜科工业和中国航空油，可能面临因能源价格上涨或国防支出增加而带来的盈利上行风险——如果局势持续时间较长。</p>
</div><p>“On the flipside, air and land transport stocks such as Singapore Airlines and SATS could be impacted negatively by higher fuel prices and cargo logistics disruptions,” the analysts said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“相反，航空和陆路运输股票，如新加坡航空和 SATS，可能会因燃料价格上涨和货运物流中断而受到负面影响，” 分析师表示。</p>
</div><p>“Tech manufacturing counters such as Nanofilm , as well as Internet services, could be impacted by a stronger US dollar – on translation, or weaker demand.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“科技制造类股票，如纳米膜，以及互联网服务，可能会因美元走强而受到影响——无论是汇率转换，还是需求减弱。”</p>
</div><h2>Gold</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>黄金</h2>
</div><p>Observers said that gold’s strong, traditional quality as a safe-haven asset continues to be a significant draw to investors at this time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>观察人士表示，黄金作为避险资产的强大传统特性在此时仍然吸引着投资者。</p>
</div><p>Anthony Naab, investment strategist at Standard Chartered, is “overweight” on gold, with a three-month forecast at US$5,250 an ounce.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>标准 Chartered 的投资策略师安东尼·纳布对黄金持 “超配” 态度，三个月的预测为每盎司 5250 美元。</p>
</div><p>“While gold is currently benefiting from its tactical role as a geopolitical hedge, our base case remains that the conflict will be relatively short-lived,” he wrote in a Mar 6 report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“虽然黄金目前受益于其作为地缘政治对冲的战术角色，但我们的基本预期仍然是冲突将相对短暂，” 他在 3 月 6 日的报告中写道。</p>
</div><p>“In that scenario, we would expect gold to be driven primarily by its structural trends, including portfolio diversification and central bank buying.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在这种情况下，我们预计黄金将主要受到其结构性趋势的驱动，包括投资组合多样化和中央银行的购买。”</p>
</div><p>This builds a case to buy gold on dips, given its position as “a structural hedge”, other analysts from the bank said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这为在价格回调时购买黄金提供了理由，考虑到其作为 “结构性对冲” 的地位，银行的其他分析师表示。</p>
</div><p>Pullbacks from gold do not undermine its role as a hedge during geopolitical disruption, said Robin Tsui, Asia-Pacific gold strategist at State Street Investment Management.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金的回调并不削弱其在地缘政治动荡期间作为对冲工具的作用，State Street 投资管理的亚太区黄金策略师罗宾·崔表示。</p>
</div><p>“The short-term gold price moves often reflect profit-taking, US dollar strength, or shifts in interest-rate expectations, even as underlying uncertainty remains elevated.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“短期内黄金价格的波动往往反映了获利了结、美元走强或利率预期的变化，即使潜在的不确定性仍然很高。”</p>
</div><p>However, Antonio Di Giacomo, senior market analyst at XS.com, said the gains by the precious metal may have been “limited” amid the strengthening of the US dollar and rising US Treasury yields.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，XS.com 的高级市场分析师安东尼·迪贾科莫表示，由于美元走强和美国国债收益率上升，贵金属的涨幅可能 “有限”。</p>
</div><p>“A stronger dollar typically acts as a negative factor for gold, as it makes the metal more expensive for investors holding other currencies and reduces its appeal as an investment asset,” he said on Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“美元走强通常对黄金构成负面影响，因为这使得持有其他货币的投资者购买黄金的成本更高，从而降低其作为投资资产的吸引力，” 他在周三表示。</p>
</div><p>The metal may therefore experience “limited upside” amid the strengthening of such US assets during the war.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，在战争期间，贵金属可能会在美国资产走强的情况下经历 “有限的上行空间”。</p>
</div><p>“As investors await clearer signals on the evolution of the conflict and the trajectory of US inflation, the precious metal’s behaviour is likely to remain closely tied to movements in the dollar and expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy,” Di Giacomo said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“随着投资者等待关于冲突演变和美国通胀走势的更明确信号，贵金属的表现可能会与美元的波动和对美联储货币政策的预期紧密相关，” Di Giacomo 表示。</p>
</div><h2>Safe-haven currencies</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>避险货币</h2>
</div><p>While traditional safe-haven currencies such as the US dollar and the Japanese yen are eyed by investors, analysts hold mixed views on the pair.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然投资者关注传统的避险货币，如美元和日元，但分析师对这对货币的看法不一。</p>
</div><p>Iris Yuen, investment strategist from Standard Chartered, said that the yen is unlikely to be the most reliable safe-haven currency in the current environment, given the region’s current volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来自渣打银行的投资策略师 Iris Yuen 表示，考虑到该地区当前的波动性，日元在当前环境下不太可能成为最可靠的避险货币。</p>
</div><p>“Japan is among the world’s largest crude oil importers, sourcing around 95 per cent of its crude oil and 11 per cent of its liquefied natural gas from the Middle East,” she noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“日本是世界上最大的原油进口国之一，约 95% 的原油和 11% 的液化天然气来自中东，” 她指出。</p>
</div><p>Considering how roughly 70 per cent of this oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, the Asian country is particularly vulnerable to transit and supply risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到大约 70% 的石油通过霍尔木兹海峡运输，该亚洲国家特别容易受到运输和供应风险的影响。</p>
</div><p>The USD/JPY pulled back to 157.64 at one point, a note by Maybank Group Research said on Tuesday, following the dip in oil prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Maybank 集团研究的报告，美元/日元一度回落至 157.64，此前油价下跌。</p>
</div><p>“(This) was driven by Trump ’s comments that the conflict would end ‘very soon’, with the operation “very far ahead” of its four to five-week schedule,” the analysts wrote.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这一点是由于特朗普的评论，他表示冲突将 ‘很快’ 结束，行动 ‘远远超出’ 其四到五周的计划，” 分析师写道。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the USD/CHF pair has taken the spotlight, with the Swiss franc emerging as one of the more resilient currencies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，美元/瑞士法郎对货币成为焦点，瑞士法郎成为更具韧性的货币之一。</p>
</div><p>“Initially the pair strengthened after the US and Israel struck Iran, highlighting the safe-haven qualities of the CHF,” the Maybank analysts noted. “Given prevailing uncertainty, CHF resilience should persist as a safe-haven play.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在美国和以色列对伊朗采取行动后，该货币对最初走强，突显了瑞士法郎的避险特性，” Maybank 的分析师指出。“考虑到当前的不确定性，瑞士法郎的韧性应作为避险选择持续存在。”</p>
</div><p>“One-sided CHF appreciation, however – especially against the euro – could very well be moderated by intervention from the Swiss National Bank,” they added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“然而，瑞士法郎的单边升值，尤其是对欧元的升值，可能会受到瑞士国家银行的干预，” 他们补充道。</p>
</div>

Should investors ‘buy the dip’? How to invest as volatility rises amid Iran crisis

- 全球市场因军事冲突和油价飙升波动加剧。  
- 布伦特油价突破 100 美元，美元/新加坡元 1.2758。  
- 投资者面临市场极端波动，需保持谨慎。

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