<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://technode.global/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Screenshot-2026-03-12-130827-150x150.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://technode.global/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Screenshot-2026-03-12-130827-150x150.png"/></p>
<p>根据华侨银行集团研究，中东地区的地缘政治紧张局势正在重塑全球能源格局，并加速向清洁能源的转型。冲突导致的石油和天然气市场及供应链的中断凸显了依赖能源的经济体的脆弱性，并强调了多元化和对可再生能源投资的紧迫性。</p>
<p>华侨银行在周三发布的一份报告中表示，敌对行动的持续时间和能源市场中断的程度将在很大程度上决定全球清洁能源转型的速度和轨迹。</p>
<p>研究机构表示：“如果地缘政治紧张局势持续，同时油气价格高企，各国将转向成本竞争力强的替代品，如可再生能源和煤炭，或动用现有的库存。能源供应商和来源的多元化对长期能源安全至关重要。”</p>
<p>冲突对霍尔木兹海峡产生了重大影响，该海峡处理全球约四分之一的海上石油贸易和五分之一的液化天然气（LNG）供应。沿着这一重要通道的中断加大了对亚洲的风险，亚洲从中东进口了大量石油。</p>
<p>华侨银行指出，持续高企的油气价格对清洁能源转型产生复杂影响。影响国家反应的因素包括可再生能源或煤炭等替代品的相对成本、燃料补贴的可用性、国内石油库存、通胀压力以及对气候目标的承诺。</p>
<p>对于许多新兴市场而言，化石燃料价格的高企可能加剧滞涨风险。然而，像印度尼西亚和马来西亚等国的燃料补贴有助于缓冲直接的经济影响。</p>
<p>尽管如此，长期的地缘政治紧张局势和波动的油市可能迫使各国寻求替代能源，以减少对进口的依赖。</p>
<p>在清洁能源来源具有经济竞争力的市场中，向可再生能源的务实转变可能会加速。</p>
<p>欧盟对俄罗斯 - 乌克兰冲突的反应提供了快速能源转型的案例研究。</p>
<p>自 2022 年以来，欧盟显著减少了对俄罗斯天然气的依赖——从 2021 年的 1500 亿立方米（bcm）减少到 2024 年的 520 亿立方米——将俄罗斯天然气进口的份额从 45% 降至 19%。</p>
<p>该集团的战略强调了即时能源安全和长期脱碳的重要性，突显了投资清洁能源的双重好处：减少对波动的化石燃料市场的暴露，并支持气候目标。</p>
<p>相反，一些国家可能暂时依赖传统能源来源。例如，中国拥有大量煤炭和原油储备，尽管可再生能源能力迅速扩张，但仍继续使用煤炭以管理能源安全。2025 年煤炭产量达到创纪录的 48.3 亿吨，比前一年增长 1.2%。</p>
<p>同样，台湾正在考虑增加煤电生产，而意大利可能重新启用煤电厂以应对短期供应缺口。虽然这些措施确保了能源安全，但如果持续时间过长，可能会减缓气候进展。</p>
<p>华侨银行强调，化石燃料供应链的冲击强化了国内能源生产和供应商多元化的重要性。</p>
<p>例如，印度尼西亚计划增加从美国的原油进口，以减少对中东供应商的依赖。</p>
<p>研究机构指出，美国的页岩油生产可以灵活应对供应缺口，尽管增量产量需要六到十二个月才能进入全球市场。</p>
<p>华侨银行还认为，投资可再生能源提供了长期的经济和战略利益。</p>
<p>引用国际能源署（IEA）的数据，研究机构估计，自 2010 年以来，可再生能源的部署为进口化石燃料的国家节省了约 1.3 万亿美元。</p>
<p>通过扩大可再生能源，各国避免了进口 7 亿吨煤炭和 4000 亿立方米天然气，展示了在市场压力期间清洁能源的实际成本优势。</p>
<p>对于东南亚而言，情况尤其引人注目。例如，新加坡约 95% 的电力来自进口天然气，其中 57% 作为液化天然气从全球出口商（包括中东）进口，43% 作为管道气从马来西亚和印度尼西亚进口。</p>
<p>虽然由于固定价格合同和监管关税，新加坡的电力消费者在短期内免受价格波动的影响，但长期能源安全仍然是华侨银行的优先事项。</p>
<p>为了解决这些脆弱性，华侨银行指出，新加坡正在推进多元化能源结构和增强韧性的措施。</p>
<p>策略包括从区域来源进口低碳电力、扩大太阳能部署、探索深层地热潜力以及开发先进核能技术的能力。</p>
<p>这些举措旨在减少对进口天然气的依赖，同时增强获取可靠清洁能源的能力。</p>
<p>其他东南亚经济体也在适应。马来西亚和印度尼西亚这两个重要的化石燃料进口国正在平衡短期能源安全与对可再生能源投资的需求。燃料补贴为价格飙升提供了短期缓解，但全球能源成本的上升强化了加速国内清洁能源项目的必要性。</p>
<p>华侨银行表示，更广泛的区域视角强调了东南亚能源转型的战略重要性。</p>
<p>那些早期投资可再生能源并多元化供应来源的国家可以减少对地缘政治冲击的暴露，缓解通胀压力，并增强经济韧性。</p>
<p>这一转型还与国际气候承诺和净零目标相一致，确保长期发展既可持续又安全。</p>
<p>“加速清洁能源战略不仅可以对冲化石燃料的波动性并减轻未来的冲击，还与净零目标相一致，并加速长期摆脱化石燃料的过渡，” 华侨银行总结道。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>大华继显预计马来西亚的总太阳能光伏容量将在 2026 年至 2029 年期间超过 6.5GW</p>
</blockquote>

华侨银行

<p>OCBC 集团研究指出，中东地区的地缘政治紧张局势正在加速全球向清洁能源的转型。石油和天然气市场的动荡凸显了能源多样化和可再生能源投资的必要性。冲突的持续时间将影响这一转型的速度，各国可能会转向具有成本竞争力的替代能源。报告指出，尽管一些国家可能会暂时依赖传统能源，但投资可再生能源提供了长期的经济利益，并增强了能源安全，特别是对于东南亚的能源依赖型经济体</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://technode.global/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Screenshot-2026-03-12-130827-150x150.png" alt="" original-src="https://technode.global/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Screenshot-2026-03-12-130827-150x150.png"/></p>
<p>Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are reshaping the global energy landscape and accelerating the shift toward clean energy, according to OCBC Group Research. The disruption of oil and gas markets and supply chains caused by the conflict underscores the vulnerability of energy-dependent economies and highlights the urgency for diversification and investment in renewables.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据华侨银行集团研究，中东地区的地缘政治紧张局势正在重塑全球能源格局，并加速向清洁能源的转型。冲突导致的石油和天然气市场及供应链的中断凸显了依赖能源的经济体的脆弱性，并强调了多元化和对可再生能源投资的紧迫性。</p>
</div><p>In a note released Wednesday, OCBC said the duration of hostilities and the extent of energy market disruptions will largely determine the pace and trajectory of the global clean energy transition.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华侨银行在周三发布的一份报告中表示，敌对行动的持续时间和能源市场中断的程度将在很大程度上决定全球清洁能源转型的速度和轨迹。</p>
</div><p>“If geopolitical tensions are prolonged alongside elevated oil and gas prices, countries will pivot to cost-competitive alternatives such as renewables and coal, or draw on existing stockpiles. The diversification of energy suppliers and sources remains critical to long-term energy security,” the research house said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>研究机构表示：“如果地缘政治紧张局势持续，同时油气价格高企，各国将转向成本竞争力强的替代品，如可再生能源和煤炭，或动用现有的库存。能源供应商和来源的多元化对长期能源安全至关重要。”</p>
</div><p>The conflict has significantly affected the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil trade and one-fifth of liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply. Disruptions along this vital corridor amplify risks to Asia, which imports a large share of its oil from the Middle East.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>冲突对霍尔木兹海峡产生了重大影响，该海峡处理全球约四分之一的海上石油贸易和五分之一的液化天然气（LNG）供应。沿着这一重要通道的中断加大了对亚洲的风险，亚洲从中东进口了大量石油。</p>
</div><p>OCBC noted that persistently higher oil and gas prices create complex implications for the clean energy transition. Factors influencing national responses include the relative cost of alternatives such as renewables or coal, availability of fuel subsidies, domestic oil stockpiles, inflationary pressures, and commitment to climate goals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华侨银行指出，持续高企的油气价格对清洁能源转型产生复杂影响。影响国家反应的因素包括可再生能源或煤炭等替代品的相对成本、燃料补贴的可用性、国内石油库存、通胀压力以及对气候目标的承诺。</p>
</div><p>For many emerging markets, elevated fossil fuel prices could heighten stagflation risks. Yet, fuel subsidies in countries like Indonesia and Malaysia help buffer the immediate economic impact.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于许多新兴市场而言，化石燃料价格的高企可能加剧滞涨风险。然而，像印度尼西亚和马来西亚等国的燃料补贴有助于缓冲直接的经济影响。</p>
</div><p>Still, prolonged geopolitical tensions and volatile oil markets will likely force countries to seek alternative energy sources to reduce dependence on imports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，长期的地缘政治紧张局势和波动的油市可能迫使各国寻求替代能源，以减少对进口的依赖。</p>
</div><p>In markets where clean energy sources are economically competitive, a pragmatic pivot toward renewables may accelerate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在清洁能源来源具有经济竞争力的市场中，向可再生能源的务实转变可能会加速。</p>
</div><p>The European Union’s response to the Russia–Ukraine conflict offers a case study in rapid energy transition.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧盟对俄罗斯 - 乌克兰冲突的反应提供了快速能源转型的案例研究。</p>
</div><p>Since 2022, the EU has significantly reduced dependence on Russian gas—from 150 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2021 to 52 bcm in 2024—cutting the share of Russian gas imports from 45 percent to 19 percent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2022 年以来，欧盟显著减少了对俄罗斯天然气的依赖——从 2021 年的 1500 亿立方米（bcm）减少到 2024 年的 520 亿立方米——将俄罗斯天然气进口的份额从 45% 降至 19%。</p>
</div><p>The bloc’s strategy emphasizes both immediate energy security and long-term decarbonization, underscoring the dual benefits of investing in clean energy: reducing exposure to volatile fossil fuel markets and supporting climate goals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该集团的战略强调了即时能源安全和长期脱碳的重要性，突显了投资清洁能源的双重好处：减少对波动的化石燃料市场的暴露，并支持气候目标。</p>
</div><p>Conversely, some countries may rely temporarily on conventional energy sources. China, for instance, with large coal and crude reserves, continues to use coal to manage energy security, despite rapidly expanding renewable capacity. Coal output rose to a record 4.83 billion tons in 2025, up 1.2 percent from the previous year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，一些国家可能暂时依赖传统能源来源。例如，中国拥有大量煤炭和原油储备，尽管可再生能源能力迅速扩张，但仍继续使用煤炭以管理能源安全。2025 年煤炭产量达到创纪录的 48.3 亿吨，比前一年增长 1.2%。</p>
</div><p>Similarly, Taiwan is considering ramping up coal-fired power production, while Italy may reactivate coal plants to address short-term supply gaps. While these measures ensure energy security, they could slow climate progress if prolonged.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同样，台湾正在考虑增加煤电生产，而意大利可能重新启用煤电厂以应对短期供应缺口。虽然这些措施确保了能源安全，但如果持续时间过长，可能会减缓气候进展。</p>
</div><p>OCBC emphasizes that shocks to fossil fuel supply chains reinforce the importance of domestic energy production and supplier diversification.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华侨银行强调，化石燃料供应链的冲击强化了国内能源生产和供应商多元化的重要性。</p>
</div><p>Indonesia, for example, plans to increase crude oil imports from the United States to reduce dependence on Middle Eastern suppliers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，印度尼西亚计划增加从美国的原油进口，以减少对中东供应商的依赖。</p>
</div><p>The research house noted that U.S. shale production could respond flexibly to supply gaps, although incremental output would take six to twelve months to reach global markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>研究机构指出，美国的页岩油生产可以灵活应对供应缺口，尽管增量产量需要六到十二个月才能进入全球市场。</p>
</div><p>OCBC also sees investing in renewable energy provides long-term economic and strategic benefits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华侨银行还认为，投资可再生能源提供了长期的经济和战略利益。</p>
</div><p>Citing the International Energy Agency (IEA), the research house estimated that renewable energy deployment has saved fossil fuel-importing nations an estimated $1.3 trillion since 2010.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>引用国际能源署（IEA）的数据，研究机构估计，自 2010 年以来，可再生能源的部署为进口化石燃料的国家节省了约 1.3 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>By scaling renewables, countries have avoided importing 700 million tons of coal and 400 bcm of natural gas, demonstrating the tangible cost advantages of cleaner energy during periods of market stress.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通过扩大可再生能源，各国避免了进口 7 亿吨煤炭和 4000 亿立方米天然气，展示了在市场压力期间清洁能源的实际成本优势。</p>
</div><p>For Southeast Asia, the case is particularly compelling. Singapore, for example, relies on imported natural gas for approximately 95 percent of its power generation, sourcing 57 percent as LNG from global exporters—including the Middle East — and 43 percent as piped gas from Malaysia and Indonesia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于东南亚而言，情况尤其引人注目。例如，新加坡约 95% 的电力来自进口天然气，其中 57% 作为液化天然气从全球出口商（包括中东）进口，43% 作为管道气从马来西亚和印度尼西亚进口。</p>
</div><p>While Singapore’s electricity consumers are cushioned from immediate price volatility due to fixed-price contracts and regulated tariffs, long-term energy security remains a priority, said OCBC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然由于固定价格合同和监管关税，新加坡的电力消费者在短期内免受价格波动的影响，但长期能源安全仍然是华侨银行的优先事项。</p>
</div><p>To address these vulnerabilities, it noted Singapore is advancing measures to diversify its energy mix and increase resilience.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了解决这些脆弱性，华侨银行指出，新加坡正在推进多元化能源结构和增强韧性的措施。</p>
</div><p>Strategies include importing low-carbon electricity from regional sources, expanding solar deployment, exploring deep geothermal potential, and developing capabilities for advanced nuclear energy technologies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>策略包括从区域来源进口低碳电力、扩大太阳能部署、探索深层地热潜力以及开发先进核能技术的能力。</p>
</div><p>These initiatives aim to reduce reliance on imported natural gas while enhancing access to reliable, clean energy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些举措旨在减少对进口天然气的依赖，同时增强获取可靠清洁能源的能力。</p>
</div><p>Other Southeast Asian economies are also adapting. Malaysia and Indonesia, both significant fossil fuel importers, are balancing short-term energy security with the need to invest in renewables. Fuel subsidies provide temporary relief from price spikes, but rising global energy costs reinforce the case for accelerating domestic clean energy projects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他东南亚经济体也在适应。马来西亚和印度尼西亚这两个重要的化石燃料进口国正在平衡短期能源安全与对可再生能源投资的需求。燃料补贴为价格飙升提供了短期缓解，但全球能源成本的上升强化了加速国内清洁能源项目的必要性。</p>
</div><p>The broader regional perspective underscores the strategic importance of energy transition for Southeast Asia, OCBC said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华侨银行表示，更广泛的区域视角强调了东南亚能源转型的战略重要性。</p>
</div><p>Countries that invest early in renewables and diversify supply sources can reduce exposure to geopolitical shocks, mitigate inflationary pressures, and strengthen economic resilience.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那些早期投资可再生能源并多元化供应来源的国家可以减少对地缘政治冲击的暴露，缓解通胀压力，并增强经济韧性。</p>
</div><p>The transition also aligns with international climate commitments and net-zero targets, ensuring that long-term development is both sustainable and secure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一转型还与国际气候承诺和净零目标相一致，确保长期发展既可持续又安全。</p>
</div><p>“Accelerating clean energy strategies not only hedges against fossil fuel volatility and mitigates future shocks but also aligns with net-zero goals and accelerates the transition away from fossil fuels in the long term,” OCBC concluded.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“加速清洁能源战略不仅可以对冲化石燃料的波动性并减轻未来的冲击，还与净零目标相一致，并加速长期摆脱化石燃料的过渡，” 华侨银行总结道。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>UOB Kay Hian expects Malaysia’s total solar PV capacity to exceed 6.5GW over 2026 to 2029</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>大华继显预计马来西亚的总太阳能光伏容量将在 2026 年至 2029 年期间超过 6.5GW</p>
</blockquote>
</div>

华侨银行认为地缘政治紧张局势可能会加速清洁能源的转型