<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/Gold-bars-on-a-work-desk.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/Gold-bars-on-a-work-desk.jpg"/></p>
<p>由于对伊朗战争的担忧，油价飙升至每桶 100 美元，黄金价格下滑，同时通胀担忧也影响了市场情绪。</p>
<p>目前，黄金在典型的避险需求动态与因油价飙升而导致的美元强势之间徘徊。</p>
<p>分析师预计，黄金价格将在当前轨迹上保持，直到中东战争的局势更加明朗。</p>
<p>此外，美元对一篮子主要货币的强势也在周四拖累了黄金价格。</p>
<p>美元走强使得以美元计价的商品对海外买家来说更加昂贵。</p>
<p>自冲突开始以来，许多市场观察者对黄金的表现感到困惑。</p>
<h2>对黄金走势的困惑</h2>
<p>尽管黄金在地缘政治危机中历来被视为可靠的避险资产，但自 2 月 28 日首次空袭以来，黄金意外下跌约 200 美元，违背了市场的典型反应。</p>
<p>Kitco 的技术市场分析师 Gary Wagner 在一份报告中表示：“解释在于空袭后的直接影响，当时美元作为避险资金的主要受益者飙升，实际上挤压了黄金的典型角色。”</p>
<p>市场的关注点最近发生了转变。现在的焦点集中在持续冲突如何影响能源供应，并可能改变美联储的货币政策路径。</p>
<p>这种关注点的变化反过来又成为影响黄金价格的重要因素。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/image-1773296073.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/image-1773296073.png"/></p>
<p>来源：Kitco</p>
<h2>更高的通胀对黄金施压</h2>
<p>在伊朗周三对商船的袭击后，德黑兰表示全球应为每桶 200 美元的油价做好准备。</p>
<p>国际能源署（IEA）对此次被描述为自 1970 年代以来最严重的油价冲击紧急呼吁大规模释放战略储备。</p>
<p>在美国与伊朗的冲突持续之际，来自海湾的供应仍然受到限制，导致油价在早盘交易中飙升，并加剧了通胀压力。</p>
<p>此外，伊朗 reportedly 在狭窄的水道中部署了约十几枚水雷。</p>
<p>这一举动威胁到重新开放这一全球石油和液化天然气运输关键通道的努力。</p>
<p>中东的生产商因储存接近饱和而暂停了石油产出，导致油轮在霍尔木兹海峡滞留超过一周。</p>
<p>冲突的影响超越了金融机制，突显出对供应链安全的地缘政治担忧的演变。</p>
<p>霍尔木兹海峡是一个重要的瓶颈；它通常处理大约每天 2000 万桶的石油运输，占全球海运石油贸易的四分之一（25%）。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，亚洲市场在很大程度上依赖这一通道，接收近 90% 的通过该通道的原油和凝析油出口。</p>
<p>另一方面，美国经济数据显示，周三消费者价格指数（CPI）在 2 月份上涨了 0.3%，符合预期，并较 1 月份的 0.2% 增速有所加快。</p>
<p>CPI 在 2 月份同比上涨了 2.4%，这也与预期一致。</p>
<p>现在的关注点转向延迟发布的 1 月份个人消费支出（PCE）指数，投资者期待在周五公布。</p>
<p>预计通胀将受到显著影响。</p>
<p>根据 Wagner 的说法，2 月份数据中任何关于能源成本降温的暗示都可能很快被推翻，3 月和 4 月的报告预计将显示由于供应中断而出现的急剧反转。</p>
<p>“这一前景使得美联储的利率路径变得相当模糊，而正是这种不确定性——而非地缘政治头条本身——似乎对黄金施加了最沉重的压力。”</p>
<h2>短期展望</h2>
<p>黄金期货经历了一次下跌，周三初步下跌 14.80 美元。</p>
<p>这一下行趋势持续到周四的隔夜交易，合约再下跌 12.00 美元，交易价格为 5166.00 美元。</p>
<p>Wagner 补充道：“这一模式表明，只要美元保持强势，市场就会持续面临卖压，市场正在辩论中东能源冲击可能将美联储推离轨道的程度。”</p>
<p>市场参与者，包括交易员和分析师，关注两个关键发展：来自外交谈判的降级信号和油价波动的稳定，这目前是决定美联储政策预期通胀风险的主要因素。</p>
<p>Wagner 进一步表示：“在这两个问题未得到解决之前，黄金可能会继续在其传统的地缘政治溢价与自 2 月底以来定义其交易的美元强势逆风之间徘徊。”</p>
<p>在撰写本文时，COMEX 黄金合约的价格为每盎司 5160.26 美元，下跌 0.4%，而白银的价格为每盎司 85.480 美元，下跌 0.1%。</p>
<p>文章《为什么黄金在下跌？避险资产被美元强势挤压》首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>

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<p>黄金价格下跌，因油价飙升至每桶 100 美元，市场对伊朗冲突的担忧加剧，同时通胀问题也在加重。美元的强势掩盖了黄金作为传统避险资产的吸引力，分析师预测在地缘政治局势稳定之前，黄金价格将持续承压。国际能源署呼吁释放战略储备，以应对严重的油价冲击，而持续的冲突则扰乱了能源供应，进一步复杂化了经济前景。市场参与者正密切关注外交动态和油价稳定性</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/Gold-bars-on-a-work-desk.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/Gold-bars-on-a-work-desk.jpg"/></p>
<p>Gold prices slipped as oil surged to $100 per barrel on Iran war fears, while inflation concerns also weighed on sentiments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于对伊朗战争的担忧，油价飙升至每桶 100 美元，黄金价格下滑，同时通胀担忧也影响了市场情绪。</p>
</div><p>The yellow metal is currently caught between the typical safe-haven demand dynamics and the dollar’s strength due to surging oil prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，黄金在典型的避险需求动态与因油价飙升而导致的美元强势之间徘徊。</p>
</div><p>Analysts expect gold prices to remain in the current trajectory until there is a clearer picture about the war in the Middle East.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师预计，黄金价格将在当前轨迹上保持，直到中东战争的局势更加明朗。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, the dollar’s strength against a basket of major currencies also dragged down bullion prices on Thursday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，美元对一篮子主要货币的强势也在周四拖累了黄金价格。</p>
</div><p>A stronger dollar makes commodities priced in the greenback more expensive for overseas buyers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元走强使得以美元计价的商品对海外买家来说更加昂贵。</p>
</div><p>Many market observers have been puzzled by gold's performance since the start of the conflict.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自冲突开始以来，许多市场观察者对黄金的表现感到困惑。</p>
</div><h2>Puzzled by gold’s movement</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>对黄金走势的困惑</h2>
</div><p>Despite its historical role as a dependable safe-haven asset during geopolitical crises, gold has unexpectedly fallen by about $200 since the initial airstrikes on February 28, going against the typical market response.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管黄金在地缘政治危机中历来被视为可靠的避险资产，但自 2 月 28 日首次空袭以来，黄金意外下跌约 200 美元，违背了市场的典型反应。</p>
</div><p>“The explanation lies in the immediate aftermath of the strikes, when the US dollar surged as the primary beneficiary of flight-to-safety flows, effectively crowding out gold's typical role,” Gary Wagner, technical market analyst at Kitco said in a report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Kitco 的技术市场分析师 Gary Wagner 在一份报告中表示：“解释在于空袭后的直接影响，当时美元作为避险资金的主要受益者飙升，实际上挤压了黄金的典型角色。”</p>
</div><p>The market's focus has recently shifted. Attention is now centered on how an extended conflict, disrupting energy supplies, could alter the Federal Reserve's path for monetary policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场的关注点最近发生了转变。现在的焦点集中在持续冲突如何影响能源供应，并可能改变美联储的货币政策路径。</p>
</div><p>This change in focus has, in turn, become a significant factor influencing the price of gold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种关注点的变化反过来又成为影响黄金价格的重要因素。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/image-1773296073.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/image-1773296073.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Kitco</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Kitco</p>
</div><h2>Higher inflation weigh on gold</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>更高的通胀对黄金施压</h2>
</div><p>Following Iran's strike on merchant ships on Wednesday, Tehran said the global community should be ready for $200 per barrel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在伊朗周三对商船的袭击后，德黑兰表示全球应为每桶 200 美元的油价做好准备。</p>
</div><p>In response to what is being described as one of the most severe oil shocks since the 1970s, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has urgently called for a substantial release of strategic reserves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国际能源署（IEA）对此次被描述为自 1970 年代以来最严重的油价冲击紧急呼吁大规模释放战略储备。</p>
</div><p>Amid the ongoing US-Israeli conflict with Iran, supplies from the Gulf remain restricted, causing oil prices to surge in early trading and intensifying inflationary pressures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美国与伊朗的冲突持续之际，来自海湾的供应仍然受到限制，导致油价在早盘交易中飙升，并加剧了通胀压力。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, Iran has reportedly deployed about a dozen mines in the narrow waterway of the strait.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，伊朗 reportedly 在狭窄的水道中部署了约十几枚水雷。</p>
</div><p>This action threatens to significantly complicate efforts to reopen this critical passage for global shipments of oil and liquefied natural gas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一举动威胁到重新开放这一全球石油和液化天然气运输关键通道的努力。</p>
</div><p>Producers in the Middle East have suspended oil output because storage is nearing capacity, leaving tankers stranded in the Strait of Hormuz for over a week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中东的生产商因储存接近饱和而暂停了石油产出，导致油轮在霍尔木兹海峡滞留超过一周。</p>
</div><p>The conflict's impact extends beyond financial mechanisms, underscoring evolving geopolitical concerns regarding the security of supply chains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>冲突的影响超越了金融机制，突显出对供应链安全的地缘政治担忧的演变。</p>
</div><p>The Strait of Hormuz is a vital choke point; it traditionally handles the transit of roughly 20 million barrels of oil daily, accounting for over a quarter (25%) of the world's seaborne oil trade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>霍尔木兹海峡是一个重要的瓶颈；它通常处理大约每天 2000 万桶的石油运输，占全球海运石油贸易的四分之一（25%）。</p>
</div><p>Notably, Asian markets rely heavily on this passage, receiving close to 90% of the crude and condensate exports that move through it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，亚洲市场在很大程度上依赖这一通道，接收近 90% 的通过该通道的原油和凝析油出口。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, US economic data showed on Wednesday that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed by 0.3% in February, meeting forecasts and marking an acceleration from the 0.2% rise seen in January.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，美国经济数据显示，周三消费者价格指数（CPI）在 2 月份上涨了 0.3%，符合预期，并较 1 月份的 0.2% 增速有所加快。</p>
</div><p>Annually, CPI increased by 2.4% through February, which was also aligned with expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CPI 在 2 月份同比上涨了 2.4%，这也与预期一致。</p>
</div><p>Attention now shifts to the delayed release of the January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which investors anticipate on Friday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在的关注点转向延迟发布的 1 月份个人消费支出（PCE）指数，投资者期待在周五公布。</p>
</div><p>Inflation is expected to be significantly affected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计通胀将受到显著影响。</p>
</div><p>Any suggestion of cooling energy costs in February's data is likely to be quickly undone, with March and April's reports expected to show a sharp reversal as supply disruptions impact the market, according to Wagner.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Wagner 的说法，2 月份数据中任何关于能源成本降温的暗示都可能很快被推翻，3 月和 4 月的报告预计将显示由于供应中断而出现的急剧反转。</p>
</div><p>“That prospect has made the Fed's rate path considerably murkier, and it is this uncertainty — more than the geopolitical headlines themselves — that appears to be weighing most heavily on gold.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这一前景使得美联储的利率路径变得相当模糊，而正是这种不确定性——而非地缘政治头条本身——似乎对黄金施加了最沉重的压力。”</p>
</div><h2>Near-term outlook</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>短期展望</h2>
</div><p>Gold futures experienced a decline, initially dropping $14.80 on Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金期货经历了一次下跌，周三初步下跌 14.80 美元。</p>
</div><p>This downward trend continued into overnight trading on Thursday, with the contract falling an additional $12.00 to trade at $5,166.00 in overseas markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一下行趋势持续到周四的隔夜交易，合约再下跌 12.00 美元，交易价格为 5166.00 美元。</p>
</div><p>“The pattern suggests persistent selling pressure as long as the dollar remains firm and the market debates how far a Middle East energy shock might push the Fed off course,” Wagner added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Wagner 补充道：“这一模式表明，只要美元保持强势，市场就会持续面临卖压，市场正在辩论中东能源冲击可能将美联储推离轨道的程度。”</p>
</div><p>Market participants, including traders and analysts, are focused on two key developments: signals of de-escalation from diplomatic talks and the stabilisation of oil price volatility, which is currently a major factor in determining the inflation risk for Fed policy expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场参与者，包括交易员和分析师，关注两个关键发展：来自外交谈判的降级信号和油价波动的稳定，这目前是决定美联储政策预期通胀风险的主要因素。</p>
</div><p>“Until either question is resolved, gold is likely to remain caught between its traditional geopolitical premium and the dollar-strength headwind that has defined its trading since late February,” Wagner further said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Wagner 进一步表示：“在这两个问题未得到解决之前，黄金可能会继续在其传统的地缘政治溢价与自 2 月底以来定义其交易的美元强势逆风之间徘徊。”</p>
</div><p>At the time of writing, the COMEX gold contract was at $5,160.26 per ounce, down 0.4%, while silver was at $85.480 per ounce, down 0.1%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在撰写本文时，COMEX 黄金合约的价格为每盎司 5160.26 美元，下跌 0.4%，而白银的价格为每盎司 85.480 美元，下跌 0.1%。</p>
</div><p>The post Why is gold falling? safe haven crowded out by dollar strength, oil surge appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>文章《为什么黄金在下跌？避险资产被美元强势挤压》首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>
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Why is gold falling? safe haven crowded out by dollar strength, oil surge

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为什么黄金价格在下跌？避险资产的吸引力被美元的强势和油价的上涨所削弱