<ul>
<li>市场定价暗示中央银行将提前收紧政策</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>原油波动性达到疫情以来的最高水平</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>投资者信心也因美国关税措施和私人信贷动荡受到打击</li>
</ul>
<p>（更新评论，欧洲交易）</p>
<p>作者：Gregor Stuart Hunter 和 Amanda Cooper</p>
<p>新加坡/伦敦，3 月 12 日（路透社）- 周四，美元连续第三个交易日上涨，接近今年以来的最高水平，因为飙升的原油价格引发了通胀担忧，这可能迫使中央银行重新评估加息的必要性。</p>
<p>能源价格的快速上涨对全球增长构成威胁，经济学家警告称，长期冲突将进一步加剧经济影响。</p>
<p>不足为奇的是，全球最大的能源进口国自战争开始以来，其货币对美元的贬值幅度最大。欧元和韩元贬值了 2% 到 3%，而印度卢比（INR=）和日元（JPY=）则各贬值超过 1.5%。</p>
<p>与此同时，美元（=USD）对一篮子主要货币上涨超过 1.5%，接近自去年 11 月以来的最高水平，这部分得益于其避险吸引力，但也因为美国是净能源出口国。</p>
<p>“那些净能源进口较多的货币可能会相对于那些不是的货币贬值，” 汇丰银行亚洲外汇研究负责人 Joey Chew 在新加坡表示。</p>
<p>布伦特原油期货（LCOc1）一度上涨超过 10%，达到每桶 101.59 美元的高点，即使国际能源署周三同意从战略储备中释放创纪录的 4 亿桶石油以应对原油价格飙升。</p>
<p>油市波动性持续上升，伊朗表示世界应准备好迎接每桶 200 美元的原油，因为其军方周三袭击了商船，霍尔木兹海峡的船只通行量骤减。</p>
<p>欧元（EUR=）下跌 0.2%，至 1.154 美元，接近自去年 11 月以来的最低水平，而日元（JPY=）一度贬值超过 159 美元，接近自 2024 年 7 月以来的最弱水平。</p>
<p>英镑（GBP=）下跌 0.2%，至 1.338 美元，略高于今年迄今的最低点。</p>
<h3>中央银行加息触发点临近</h3>
<p>美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周三表示，华盛顿在对伊朗的战争中 “形势非常良好”，并表示美国 “将非常认真地关注霍尔木兹海峡”。</p>
<p>然而，三位知情人士表示，美国情报显示伊朗领导层仍然基本完好，并且在短期内没有崩溃的风险，此前美国和以色列进行了近两周的持续轰炸。</p>
<p>伊朗似乎在伊拉克水域纵火焚烧两艘油轮，进一步加大了对中东地区石油和运输设施的攻击，自冲突开始以来，该地区被袭击的船只数量已至少达到 16 艘。</p>
<p>“特朗普总统不断表示，甚至在昨晚，战争将很快结束 - 我们不清楚这是否真的取决于他，” 澳大利亚国民银行货币策略师 Rodrigo Catril 在悉尼表示。</p>
<p>“我们应该预期能源价格将持续波动，” 他在一档播客中表示。</p>
<p>在特朗普政府周三对 16 个主要贸易伙伴发起新的贸易调查，以重建关税压力后，风险偏好进一步受到打击，此前美国最高法院上个月推翻了特朗普关税计划的核心内容。</p>
<p>来自私人信贷领域的更多震荡，这次来自瑞士私募股权公司 Partners Group（PGHN.S），《金融时报》周四引用其消息称，该行业的违约率可能在未来几年内翻倍。</p>
<p>另一次能源价格冲击的潜力促使交易员重新评估对利率的看法。周四的掉期市场显示，交易员预计欧洲中央银行可能在 6 月加息，而美国联邦储备委员会可能要等到 9 月才会降息，之前的预期是 7 月，根据 LSEG 汇编的数据。</p>

标普全球能源股指数 ETF - iShares

彭博美元指数 做多 - WisdomTree

美国 WTI 原油 ETF

油气服务 ETF - Market Vectors

能源业 ETF - SPDR

美国油气勘探与生产 ETF - iShares

美国布伦特原油期货基金

德银美元指数 做多 - PowerShares

油气开采 ETF - SPDR

<ul>
<li>Market pricing implies earlier tightening by central banks</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>市场定价暗示中央银行将提前收紧政策</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Crude oil volatility at highest levels since pandemic</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>原油波动性达到疫情以来的最高水平</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Investor confidence also dented by US tariff moves, private credit ructions</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>投资者信心也因美国关税措施和私人信贷动荡受到打击</li>
</ul>
</div><p>(Updates throughout with comments, European trading)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（更新评论，欧洲交易）</p>
</div><p>By Gregor Stuart Hunter and Amanda Cooper</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Gregor Stuart Hunter 和 Amanda Cooper</p>
</div><p>SINGAPORE/LONDON, March 12 (Reuters) - The dollar gained for a third consecutive session on Thursday, staying close to its strongest levels this year as surging crude prices stoked inflation worries, which could potentially force central banks to reassess the need for interest-rate hikes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新加坡/伦敦，3 月 12 日（路透社）- 周四，美元连续第三个交易日上涨，接近今年以来的最高水平，因为飙升的原油价格引发了通胀担忧，这可能迫使中央银行重新评估加息的必要性。</p>
</div><p>The rapid increase in energy prices poses a threat to global growth, with economists warning that prolonged conflicts would further amplify the economic impact.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>能源价格的快速上涨对全球增长构成威胁，经济学家警告称，长期冲突将进一步加剧经济影响。</p>
</div><p>Unsurprisingly, the world’s biggest energy importers have seen their currencies post the largest losses against the dollar since the start of the war. The euro and the Korean won have lost 2% to 3%, while the Indian rupee (INR=) and Japanese yen (JPY=) have lost more than 1.5% each.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不足为奇的是，全球最大的能源进口国自战争开始以来，其货币对美元的贬值幅度最大。欧元和韩元贬值了 2% 到 3%，而印度卢比（INR=）和日元（JPY=）则各贬值超过 1.5%。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the dollar (=USD) has risen by more than 1.5% against a basket of major currencies and is close to its highest level since November, thanks in part to its safe-haven appeal, but also because the United States is a net energy exporter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，美元（=USD）对一篮子主要货币上涨超过 1.5%，接近自去年 11 月以来的最高水平，这部分得益于其避险吸引力，但也因为美国是净能源出口国。</p>
</div><p>“Those currencies which are larger net energy importers will likely weaken versus those are who are not,” Joey Chew, head of Asia FX research at HSBC in Singapore, said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“那些净能源进口较多的货币可能会相对于那些不是的货币贬值，” 汇丰银行亚洲外汇研究负责人 Joey Chew 在新加坡表示。</p>
</div><p>Brent crude futures (LCOc1) rose more than 10% at one point to highs of $101.59 per barrel, even after the International Energy Agency on Wednesday agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from strategic stockpiles to combat the spike in crude prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布伦特原油期货（LCOc1）一度上涨超过 10%，达到每桶 101.59 美元的高点，即使国际能源署周三同意从战略储备中释放创纪录的 4 亿桶石油以应对原油价格飙升。</p>
</div><p>Oil market volatility has continued to climb, with Iran saying the world should be ready for crude at $200 a barrel as its military attacked merchant ships on Wednesday, and vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dwindled to a trickle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油市波动性持续上升，伊朗表示世界应准备好迎接每桶 200 美元的原油，因为其军方周三袭击了商船，霍尔木兹海峡的船只通行量骤减。</p>
</div><p>The euro (EUR=) slipped 0.2% to $1.154, nearing its lowest level since November, while the yen (JPY=) briefly depreciated past the 159-per-dollar mark and was approaching its weakest level since July 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧元（EUR=）下跌 0.2%，至 1.154 美元，接近自去年 11 月以来的最低水平，而日元（JPY=）一度贬值超过 159 美元，接近自 2024 年 7 月以来的最弱水平。</p>
</div><p>The pound (GBP=) fell 0.2% to $1.338, a little above its weakest point of the year so far.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英镑（GBP=）下跌 0.2%，至 1.338 美元，略高于今年迄今的最低点。</p>
</div><h3>CENTRAL BANK RATE TRIGGER DRAWS CLOSER</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>中央银行加息触发点临近</h3>
</div><p>U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that Washington was in “very good shape” in its war on Iran, and that the U.S. was “going to look very strongly at the Straits.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周三表示，华盛顿在对伊朗的战争中 “形势非常良好”，并表示美国 “将非常认真地关注霍尔木兹海峡”。</p>
</div><p>However, three sources familiar with the matter said U.S. intelligence indicated that Iran’s leadership was still largely intact and was not at risk of collapse anytime soon, after nearly two weeks of relentless U.S. and Israeli bombardment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，三位知情人士表示，美国情报显示伊朗领导层仍然基本完好，并且在短期内没有崩溃的风险，此前美国和以色列进行了近两周的持续轰炸。</p>
</div><p>Iran appeared to have set ablaze two tankers in Iraqi waters as it stepped up attacks on oil and transport facilities across the Middle East, raising the number of ships struck in the region since fighting began to at least 16.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗似乎在伊拉克水域纵火焚烧两艘油轮，进一步加大了对中东地区石油和运输设施的攻击，自冲突开始以来，该地区被袭击的船只数量已至少达到 16 艘。</p>
</div><p>“President Trump keeps on saying, even overnight, that the war will end soon - it’s unclear to us that it’s really up to him,” said Rodrigo Catril, a currency strategist at National Australia Bank in Sydney.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“特朗普总统不断表示，甚至在昨晚，战争将很快结束 - 我们不清楚这是否真的取决于他，” 澳大利亚国民银行货币策略师 Rodrigo Catril 在悉尼表示。</p>
</div><p>“We should expect ongoing volatility in energy prices,” he said in a podcast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们应该预期能源价格将持续波动，” 他在一档播客中表示。</p>
</div><p>Risk appetite took a further hit after Trump’s administration on Wednesday launched a new trade investigation into excess industrial capacity in 16 major trading partners, in a move aimed at rebuilding tariff pressure after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the centerpiece of Trump’s tariff program last month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在特朗普政府周三对 16 个主要贸易伙伴发起新的贸易调查，以重建关税压力后，风险偏好进一步受到打击，此前美国最高法院上个月推翻了特朗普关税计划的核心内容。</p>
</div><p>More tremors rippled out from the world of private credit, this time from Swiss private equity company Partners Group (PGHN.S) , which the Financial Times cited on Thursday as saying default rates in the sector could double over the next few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来自私人信贷领域的更多震荡，这次来自瑞士私募股权公司 Partners Group（PGHN.S），《金融时报》周四引用其消息称，该行业的违约率可能在未来几年内翻倍。</p>
</div><p>The potential for another energy-price shock prompted traders to reassess their views on interest rates. The swaps market on Thursday showed that traders expect the European Central Bank to raise rates possibly as soon as June, while the U.S. Federal Reserve could leave it until September before cutting rates, from a previous expectation for July, according to data compiled by LSEG.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一次能源价格冲击的潜力促使交易员重新评估对利率的看法。周四的掉期市场显示，交易员预计欧洲中央银行可能在 6 月加息，而美国联邦储备委员会可能要等到 9 月才会降息，之前的预期是 7 月，根据 LSEG 汇编的数据。</p>
</div>

FOREX-Dollar near 2026 highs as volatile oil fans inflation spike fears

Reuters

外汇市场——由于油价波动加剧了通胀飙升的担忧，美元接近 2026 年的高点