<div id="readability-page-1">p  Investing  Stocks  Donald Trump  Economy  See all topics  Stocks have climbed, bond yields have fallen and the US dollar has weakened across President Donald Trump’s second term so far — market movements the president has welcomed.  But the war with Iran is threatening to disrupt that, sending stocks lower and pushing yields and the dollar higher.  That complicates the narrative for a president who prides himself on record-high stocks, low borrowing costs and a weaker dollar for boosting manufacturing. And with a razor-thin Republican majority in the House of Representatives at stake, that could make Trump’s pitch to midterm voters a harder sell.  The longer the conflict goes, the longer stocks, bonds and the dollar could all trade in exactly the opposite way Trump wants.  Trump often touted record-high stocks before the war, as when the Dow hit 50,000 points last month. He’s frequently referred to the market’s strength as evidence of his presidency’s success.  “The stock market has done so well, setting all those records — your 401(k) s are way up,” Trump said during his State of the Union address on February 24.  But the Dow has dropped more than 5% since its latest record high on February 10, as investors worry about global oil flows because of the war.  “The conflict in the Middle East and related headlines are still the major source of fluctuations in markets,” Sameer Samana, head of global equities and real assets at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said in an email.  Samana said he thinks the conflict will last weeks or a few months and not meaningfully change the outlook for stocks. The key is time: The longer the conflict rages, the more market uncertainty there will be.  The S&amp;P 500 is down 1.5% this month — enough to put the index into the red for the year. And it’s been six weeks since the S&amp;P hit a record high.  “It really comes back to the duration. How long is this going to take?” said Mike Skordeles, head of US economics at Truist.  The key 10-year US Treasury yield has climbed since the war with Iran began as investors, worried higher oil prices will boost inflation, sell bonds. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose from 3.96% at the start of the month to 4.22% as of Wednesday.  Yields, which rise when bond prices fall, influence borrowing costs across the economy, including mortgage rates.  The US Treasury building in Washington, DC, on August 5, 2025.  Al Drago/Bloomberg/Getty Images  In the past, the market has served as a check on the White House. The president has backed off policy proposals like tariffs when they rocked the stock and bond markets simultaneously.  The Trump administration has said it is focused on lowering Treasury yields to address affordability as well as to lower interest payments the US government owes on the national debt.  The 10-year yield is only at its highest level in a month. But the yield’s climb last week was its largest weekly leap since April, when markets were jolted by massive tariff uncertainty.  Resurgent inflation because of energy prices could also make the Federal Reserve less likely to cut interest rates, at odds with the president’s preference for lower rates.  A weaker dollar can make US goods cheaper for other countries, serving as a tailwind for domestic manufacturing and boosting exports. That aligns with the Trump administration’s goal of reviving American manufacturing.  But the war with Iran has sent the dollar rebounding. The US dollar index has climbed 1.7% this month as investors flock to safe havens and as analysts see fewer Fed interest rate cuts ahead.  Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in January that the United States has a strong dollar policy. But a rising dollar is at odds with the White House’s hoped-for manufacturing renaissance.  Before the war, the dollar index was down 0.7% in 2026 after falling 9% in 2025.  The index is now up nearly 1% this year, though it is still down 4.6% since this time last year. (The index measures the dollar against a basket of major currencies.)  Rising Treasury yields complicate the Trump administration’s push for lower borrowing costs. A stronger dollar impedes visions of trading partners scooping up cheaper American goods. And lower stocks conflict with the president’s love of record highs. Whether these moves continue depends on the price of oil and the duration of the conflict.  “There’s just going to be more headline risk in the market, more choppiness, until there’s more details on the timeline here,” said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial.</div>

7-10 年美国国债 ETF - iShares

标普 500 ETF - SPDR

20 年期以上美国国债 ETF - iShares

<p>与伊朗的持续战争正在影响金融市场，导致股票下跌、债券收益率上升，以及美元走强，这使得特朗普总统关于经济成功的叙述变得复杂。本月标普 500 指数下跌了 1.5%，10 年期国债收益率从 3.96% 上升至 4.22%。分析师建议，冲突的持续时间将决定市场的稳定性，油价上涨可能导致通货膨胀并影响利率。这一局势给特朗普政府带来了挑战，政府希望降低借贷成本并支持美国制造业</p>

The Iran war threatens to undermine Trump’s favorite bragging point | CNN Business

- 美国股市上涨，债券收益率下降，美元走弱，特朗普乐观应对。  
- 但伊朗战争威胁市场，导致股市下跌和收益率上升。  
- 战争持续时间将影响经济走势和特朗普的选民宣传。

伊朗战争可能会削弱特朗普最喜欢的炫耀点 | CNN 商业