<p>联想控股（香港证券交易所代码：3396）发布了 2025 年的未经审计的盈利指引，预计归属于股东的净利润至少为 9 亿人民币，而 2024 年为 1.33 亿人民币。公司表示，这一展望主要是由于其工业孵化和投资部门的损失减少。</p>
<p>查看我们对联想控股的最新分析。</p>
<p>联想控股的股价为 9.12 港元，过去一个月股价回报率为 5.43%，年初至今小幅上涨，而其三年总股东回报率为 15.78%，尽管近期有所疲软，但显示出逐渐改善的势头。</p>
<p>如果这个盈利指引让你考虑其他资本的投资机会，现在可能是扩大搜索范围的好时机，寻找 99 家顶级创始人领导的公司。</p>
<p>因此，考虑到今年股价小幅上涨，分析师对其目标价持乐观态度，且盈利指引显示出明显的盈利反弹，联想控股是否仍在折价交易，还是市场已经在定价这一复苏？</p>
<h2>34.6 倍的市盈率：是否合理？</h2>
<p>在最后收盘价为 9.12 港元时，联想控股的市盈率为 34.6 倍，高于亚洲科技行业平均的 22.2 倍，但仍低于其估计的合理市盈率 50.5 倍。</p>
<p>市盈率将股价与每股收益进行比较，因此较高的市盈率通常意味着市场对当前收益的每单位价值给予了更高的评价。对于像联想控股这样涵盖工业运营和投资活动的集团而言，该数字有效反映了投资者今天愿意为其硬件、金融服务和孵化业务的组合支付的价格。</p>
<p>分析师预计未来几年盈利将强劲增长，公司最近已从亏损转为盈利，如果这些利润能够持续，将支持更高的倍数。同时，当前的股本回报率为 8.3%，预计将保持在个位数，利息支付未能很好地覆盖收益。这种组合可能使得较高的市盈率看起来要求过高，如果增长或盈利能力停滞。</p>
<p>与同行相比，34.6 倍的市盈率相对于 22.2 倍的亚洲科技平均水平显得昂贵，暗示市场对盈利进展的预期高于更广泛的行业。然而，相对于估计的合理市盈率 50.5 倍，目前的倍数明显较低，这暗示如果盈利状况如预期展开，估值有可能向合理比例水平靠拢。</p>
<p>探索联想控股的 SWS 合理比例</p>
<p><strong>结果：34.6 倍的市盈率（大致合理）</strong></p>
<p>然而，你仍需关注利息支出对这些个位数回报的压力，以及管理如此广泛的业务组合的复杂性。</p>
<p>了解联想控股叙述中的关键风险。</p>
<h2>另一种观点：DCF 指向有限的上行空间</h2>
<p>虽然 34.6 倍的市盈率在 50.5 倍的合理比例下看起来合理，但我们的 DCF 模型描绘了一个更冷静的画面。联想控股的股价为 9.12 港元，而估计的 DCF 价值为 6.80 港元，显示出未来现金流的高估。这引发了一个问题：市场的乐观情绪已经反映了多少？</p>
<p>要更深入了解这一现金流视角的构建，查看 SWS DCF 模型如何得出其合理价值。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/9cff3205-1981-435c-81e9-700721e9ac59/chart/dcf/query-ZGF0ZT0yMDI2LTAzLTEy?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1706" height="760" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/9cff3205-1981-435c-81e9-700721e9ac59/chart/dcf/query-ZGF0ZT0yMDI2LTAzLTEy"/></p>
<p>3396 年 2026 年 3 月的折现现金流</p>
<p>Simply Wall St 每天对全球每只股票进行折现现金流（DCF）分析（例如查看联想控股）。我们展示了完整的计算过程。你可以在你的观察列表或投资组合中跟踪结果，并在变化时收到提醒，或者使用我们的股票筛选器发现 223 只高质量的被低估股票。如果你保存了筛选器，我们甚至会在新公司匹配时提醒你——这样你就不会错过潜在机会。</p>
<h2>下一步</h2>
<p>经过这一切，你觉得市场对联想控股的信心过于强烈还是不足，是否准备好自己检查基本数据并迅速根据自己的评估采取行动？为了权衡故事的两面，看看两个关键的回报和一个重要的警示信号，然后决定你的立场。</p>
<h2>寻找更多投资想法？</h2>
<p>如果联想控股引起了你的关注，不要止步于此。筛选器可以快速发现其他可能符合你的风格和风险偏好的机会。</p>
<ul>
<li>通过我们的稳健资产负债表和基本面股票筛选器（375 个结果）检查财务状况良好且杠杆率低的公司，以目标耐用质量。</li>
<li>通过扫描 223 只高质量的被低估股票，及早发现潜在的错误定价机会。</li>
<li>通过审查我们 464 个股息堡垒中突出的公司，确保更可靠的收入来源。</li>
</ul>
<p><em>本文由 Simply Wall St 撰写，内容具有一般性。<strong>我们基于历史数据和分析师预测提供评论，仅使用无偏见的方法，我们的文章并不旨在提供财务建议。</strong> 这并不构成买入或卖出任何股票的推荐，也未考虑你的目标或财务状况。我们旨在为你提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意，我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St 在提到的任何股票中没有持仓。</em></p>
<h3><strong>新：AI 股票筛选器和提醒</strong></h3>
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联想集团

联想集团(ADR)

联想控股

<p>联想控股（香港证券交易所代码：3396）预测 2025 年的净利润至少为 9 亿人民币，较 2024 年的 1.33 亿人民币大幅增长，这得益于其工业部门损失的减少。该公司的股价为 9.12 港元，市盈率为 34.6 倍，高于亚洲科技平均市盈率 22.2 倍，但低于其合理市盈率 50.5 倍。分析师预计强劲的盈利增长，但对利息支出和盈利能力仍存担忧。现金流折现分析表明，按 9.12 港元的股价计算，该股票可能被高估，估计价值为 6.80 港元</p>

<p>Legend Holdings (SEHK:3396) issued unaudited earnings guidance for 2025, highlighting expected net profit attributable to equity holders of at least CN¥900 million, compared with CN¥133 million for 2024. The company stated that this outlook is driven mainly by reduced losses in its industrial incubations and investments segment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>联想控股（香港证券交易所代码：3396）发布了 2025 年的未经审计的盈利指引，预计归属于股东的净利润至少为 9 亿人民币，而 2024 年为 1.33 亿人民币。公司表示，这一展望主要是由于其工业孵化和投资部门的损失减少。</p>
</div><p>See our latest analysis for Legend Holdings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看我们对联想控股的最新分析。</p>
</div><p>Legend Holdings’ HK$9.12 share price has seen a 5.43% 1 month share price return and a small year to date gain, while its 3 year total shareholder return of 15.78% suggests gradually improving momentum despite some recent weakness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>联想控股的股价为 9.12 港元，过去一个月股价回报率为 5.43%，年初至今小幅上涨，而其三年总股东回报率为 15.78%，尽管近期有所疲软，但显示出逐渐改善的势头。</p>
</div><p>If this earnings guidance has you thinking about where else capital could work harder, it might be a good time to broaden your search with 99 top founder-led companies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果这个盈利指引让你考虑其他资本的投资机会，现在可能是扩大搜索范围的好时机，寻找 99 家顶级创始人领导的公司。</p>
</div><p>So with the shares up slightly this year, analysts seeing upside to their price target, and profit guidance signaling a sharp earnings rebound, is Legend Holdings still trading at a discount, or is the market already pricing in that recovery?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，考虑到今年股价小幅上涨，分析师对其目标价持乐观态度，且盈利指引显示出明显的盈利反弹，联想控股是否仍在折价交易，还是市场已经在定价这一复苏？</p>
</div><h2>Price-to-Earnings of 34.6x: Is it justified?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>34.6 倍的市盈率：是否合理？</h2>
</div><p>On a P/E of 34.6x at a last close of HK$9.12, Legend Holdings trades at a higher earnings multiple than the Asian tech industry average of 22.2x, while still sitting below its estimated fair P/E of 50.5x.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在最后收盘价为 9.12 港元时，联想控股的市盈率为 34.6 倍，高于亚洲科技行业平均的 22.2 倍，但仍低于其估计的合理市盈率 50.5 倍。</p>
</div><p>The P/E ratio compares the share price with earnings per share, so a higher P/E usually means the market is placing a richer value on each unit of current earnings. For a group like Legend Holdings, which spans industrial operations and investment activities, that figure effectively reflects what investors are willing to pay today for its mix of hardware, financial services and incubation businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市盈率将股价与每股收益进行比较，因此较高的市盈率通常意味着市场对当前收益的每单位价值给予了更高的评价。对于像联想控股这样涵盖工业运营和投资活动的集团而言，该数字有效反映了投资者今天愿意为其硬件、金融服务和孵化业务的组合支付的价格。</p>
</div><p>Analysts expect earnings to grow strongly over the next few years, and the company has recently shifted from losses to profit, which can support a higher multiple if those profits prove sustainable. At the same time, return on equity is currently 8.3%, forecast to remain in single digits, and interest payments are not well covered by earnings. This combination can make an elevated P/E look demanding if growth or profitability were to stall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师预计未来几年盈利将强劲增长，公司最近已从亏损转为盈利，如果这些利润能够持续，将支持更高的倍数。同时，当前的股本回报率为 8.3%，预计将保持在个位数，利息支付未能很好地覆盖收益。这种组合可能使得较高的市盈率看起来要求过高，如果增长或盈利能力停滞。</p>
</div><p>Compared with peers, the 34.6x P/E is expensive versus the 22.2x Asian tech average, suggesting the market is pricing in stronger earnings progress than the wider sector. However, against the estimated fair P/E of 50.5x, the current multiple is materially lower, which hints at room for the valuation to move closer to that fair ratio level if the earnings profile unfolds as expected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与同行相比，34.6 倍的市盈率相对于 22.2 倍的亚洲科技平均水平显得昂贵，暗示市场对盈利进展的预期高于更广泛的行业。然而，相对于估计的合理市盈率 50.5 倍，目前的倍数明显较低，这暗示如果盈利状况如预期展开，估值有可能向合理比例水平靠拢。</p>
</div><p>Explore the SWS fair ratio for Legend Holdings</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>探索联想控股的 SWS 合理比例</p>
</div><p><strong>Result: Price-to-Earnings of 34.6x (ABOUT RIGHT)</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>结果：34.6 倍的市盈率（大致合理）</strong></p>
</div><p>However, you still need to watch for pressure from interest expenses on those single digit returns, as well as the complexity of managing such a broad mix of businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，你仍需关注利息支出对这些个位数回报的压力，以及管理如此广泛的业务组合的复杂性。</p>
</div><p>Find out about the key risks to this Legend Holdings narrative.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>了解联想控股叙述中的关键风险。</p>
</div><h2>Another View: DCF Points to Limited Upside</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>另一种观点：DCF 指向有限的上行空间</h2>
</div><p>While the 34.6x P/E looks reasonable against the fair ratio of 50.5x, our DCF model paints a cooler picture. With Legend Holdings at HK$9.12 versus an estimated DCF value of HK$6.80, the shares screen as overvalued on future cash flows. This raises the question of how much optimism is already baked in.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然 34.6 倍的市盈率在 50.5 倍的合理比例下看起来合理，但我们的 DCF 模型描绘了一个更冷静的画面。联想控股的股价为 9.12 港元，而估计的 DCF 价值为 6.80 港元，显示出未来现金流的高估。这引发了一个问题：市场的乐观情绪已经反映了多少？</p>
</div><p>For a closer look at how this cash flow view is built, Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要更深入了解这一现金流视角的构建，查看 SWS DCF 模型如何得出其合理价值。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/9cff3205-1981-435c-81e9-700721e9ac59/chart/dcf/query-ZGF0ZT0yMDI2LTAzLTEy" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/9cff3205-1981-435c-81e9-700721e9ac59/chart/dcf?date=2026-03-12"/></p>
<p>3396 Discounted Cash Flow as at Mar 2026</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>3396 年 2026 年 3 月的折现现金流</p>
</div><p>Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Legend Holdings for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 223 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Simply Wall St 每天对全球每只股票进行折现现金流（DCF）分析（例如查看联想控股）。我们展示了完整的计算过程。你可以在你的观察列表或投资组合中跟踪结果，并在变化时收到提醒，或者使用我们的股票筛选器发现 223 只高质量的被低估股票。如果你保存了筛选器，我们甚至会在新公司匹配时提醒你——这样你就不会错过潜在机会。</p>
</div><h2>Next Steps</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>下一步</h2>
</div><p>After all this, do you feel the market is too confident or not confident enough in Legend Holdings, and are you ready to check the underlying numbers yourself and act quickly on your own assessment? To weigh up both sides of the story, take a look at 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign, then decide where you stand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经过这一切，你觉得市场对联想控股的信心过于强烈还是不足，是否准备好自己检查基本数据并迅速根据自己的评估采取行动？为了权衡故事的两面，看看两个关键的回报和一个重要的警示信号，然后决定你的立场。</p>
</div><h2>Looking for more investment ideas?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>寻找更多投资想法？</h2>
</div><p>If Legend Holdings has sharpened your focus, do not stop here. The screener can quickly surface other opportunities that might fit your style and risk comfort.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果联想控股引起了你的关注，不要止步于此。筛选器可以快速发现其他可能符合你的风格和风险偏好的机会。</p>
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<li>Spot potential mispricings early by scanning for value focused opportunities in the 223 high quality undervalued stocks.</li>
<li>Secure more dependable income streams by reviewing companies highlighted in our 464 dividend fortresses.</li>
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<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>通过我们的稳健资产负债表和基本面股票筛选器（375 个结果）检查财务状况良好且杠杆率低的公司，以目标耐用质量。</li>
<li>通过扫描 223 只高质量的被低估股票，及早发现潜在的错误定价机会。</li>
<li>通过审查我们 464 个股息堡垒中突出的公司，确保更可靠的收入来源。</li>
</ul>
</div><p><em>This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. <strong>We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.</strong> It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>本文由 Simply Wall St 撰写，内容具有一般性。<strong>我们基于历史数据和分析师预测提供评论，仅使用无偏见的方法，我们的文章并不旨在提供财务建议。</strong> 这并不构成买入或卖出任何股票的推荐，也未考虑你的目标或财务状况。我们旨在为你提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意，我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St 在提到的任何股票中没有持仓。</em></p>
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<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>新：AI 股票筛选器和提醒</strong></h3>
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在 2025 年利润指引大幅反弹后，评估联想控股（SEHK:3396）的估值