<p>胡志明市——根据越南信用评级服务、市场研究和企业分析提供商 S&amp;I Ratings 的报告，预计在经历了 2025 年强劲增长后，银行业在今年将实现 “适度积极” 的表现，利润预计增长 16%。</p>
<p>报告指出，尽管去年的净利差（NIM）受到流动性压力的影响，但该行业仍录得 18.9% 的强劲利润增长，主要得益于信贷的强劲扩张和非利息收入的恢复。</p>
<p>银行的零售信贷增长有所改善，主要是由于抵押贷款的激增。</p>
<p>但大多数贷款机构将重点转向企业客户，特别是大型企业和外资公司，以维持增长。</p>
<p>整个行业的资产质量也显著改善，不良贷款比例连续三个季度下降，年末达到 1.85%。</p>
<p>净利差从 2024 年第四季度的 3.4% 降至 3.1%，为近年来的最低水平。</p>
<p>服务费收入在 2025 年增长了 12%，在连续两年负增长后反弹。</p>
<p>非利息收入的主要驱动力来自于之前核销的不良债务的回收。</p>
<p>其他活动的收入，主要是坏账回收，达到了超过 58 万亿越南盾（22 亿美元），占行业总非利息收入的 34%。</p>
<p><strong>房地产信贷预计将降温</strong></p>
<p>预计银行业将继续受益于政府在 2026 年的雄心勃勃的经济增长目标，尽管挑战依然存在。</p>
<p>越南国家银行（SBV）设定的信贷增长目标为 15%，低于 2025 年的 19.1%。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，新监管措施包括对信贷增长的季度监测，以及要求房地产贷款的增长不得快于银行整体信贷的增长。</p>
<p>报告指出：“我们认为，2026 年房地产信贷增长将进入降温和更具选择性的扩张阶段，而不是维持 2025 年的强劲增长。”</p>
<p>“但房地产行业仍将是贷款增长的重要贡献者。”</p>
<p>报告补充说，中央银行在这一领域的政策动向应受到密切关注，因为它们可能对行业的增长前景产生影响。</p>
<p>在 SBV 的谨慎监管下，各银行之间的信贷增长配额差异也日益明显。</p>
<p>参与重组弱势金融机构的银行获得了更高的信贷增长配额，而大多数其他银行在年初被分配了 11% 至 13% 的较温和增长率。</p>
<p>随着经济对资本的需求保持高位，2026 年进一步信贷的空间可能成为一种宝贵资源，特别是对于房地产贷款。</p>
<p>除了规模差异外，贷款期限结构也在对资金需求施加压力。</p>
<p>在 2025 年，银行将资产组合重组为长期贷款，以提高资产收益率并支持净利差，尽管利差受到压缩。这增加了用于中长期贷款的短期资金比例，从而提高了资金需求。</p>
<p>通过 SBV 的公开市场操作（OMO）和国库存款，流动性得到了强有力的支持，支持力度达到了创纪录的水平。</p>
<p>到 2025 年最后一个季度末，国有商业银行的国库存款超过 406 万亿越南盾，而未偿还的 OMO 操作通常保持在 200 万亿越南盾以上。</p>
<p>但银行间利率仍显著高于 OMO 利率，表明流动性压力依然存在。</p>
<p>考虑到这些因素，S&amp;I Ratings 预测 2026 年净利差将略微下降至约 3%，尽管各银行的表现将有所不同。</p>
<p>预计拥有高活期存款比例、较低融资成本和更强风险管理能力的银行将更早稳定其净利差，因为它们对利率波动的抵御能力更强。</p>
<p>依赖高成本市场融资的银行可能会继续面临长期的利差压力。</p>
<p>报告补充说：“我们对 2026 年银行业持适度积极的看法，预计行业整体税前利润同比增长约 16%。”——越南新闻社</p>

VNAM

越南 ETF - VanEck Vectors

<p>越南银行业预计在 2026 年将实现 “适度积极” 的表现，利润预计将增长 16%。在 2025 年，由于信贷扩张和非利息收入改善，银行实现了 18.9% 的强劲增长，现在更加关注企业客户。不良贷款比例有所改善，但净利差预计将略微下降至约 3%。监管措施可能会抑制房地产信贷增长，而各银行之间的信贷增长配额差异愈发明显。总体而言，前景依然谨慎乐观</p>

<p>HCM CITY — After a year of strong growth in 2025 the banking industry is expected to deliver a “moderately positive” performance this year, with profits projected to increase by 16 per cent, according to a report by S&amp;I Ratings, a provider of credit rating services, market research and corporate analysis in Việt Nam.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>胡志明市——根据越南信用评级服务、市场研究和企业分析提供商 S&amp;I Ratings 的报告，预计在经历了 2025 年强劲增长后，银行业在今年将实现 “适度积极” 的表现，利润预计增长 16%。</p>
</div><p>Last year, despite the net interest margin (NIM) being hit by liquidity pressures, the sector recorded robust profit growth of 18.9 per cent, driven by strong credit expansion and a recovery in non-interest income, it said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>报告指出，尽管去年的净利差（NIM）受到流动性压力的影响，但该行业仍录得 18.9% 的强劲利润增长，主要得益于信贷的强劲扩张和非利息收入的恢复。</p>
</div><p>Banks saw improved retail credit growth, primarily driven by a surge in mortgage lending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>银行的零售信贷增长有所改善，主要是由于抵押贷款的激增。</p>
</div><p>But most lenders shifted their focus towards corporate clients, particularly large enterprises and foreign-invested companies, to sustain growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但大多数贷款机构将重点转向企业客户，特别是大型企业和外资公司，以维持增长。</p>
</div><p>Asset quality across the sector also improved significantly, with the non-performing loan ratio declining for three consecutive quarters to end the year at 1.85 per cent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>整个行业的资产质量也显著改善，不良贷款比例连续三个季度下降，年末达到 1.85%。</p>
</div><p>NIM dropped to 3.1 per cent from 3.4 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, the lowest level in several years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>净利差从 2024 年第四季度的 3.4% 降至 3.1%，为近年来的最低水平。</p>
</div><p>The service fee income rose by 12 per cent in 2025, rebounding after two consecutive years of negative growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>服务费收入在 2025 年增长了 12%，在连续两年负增长后反弹。</p>
</div><p>The main driver of non-interest income came from recoveries of previously written-off bad debts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>非利息收入的主要驱动力来自于之前核销的不良债务的回收。</p>
</div><p>Income from other activities, mainly bad debt recoveries, reached over VNĐ58 trillion (US$2.2 billion) to account for 34 per cent of the industry’s total non-interest income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他活动的收入，主要是坏账回收，达到了超过 58 万亿越南盾（22 亿美元），占行业总非利息收入的 34%。</p>
</div><p><strong>Real estate credit expected to cool</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>房地产信贷预计将降温</strong></p>
</div><p>The banking sector is expected to continue benefiting from the Government’s ambitious economic growth targets in 2026, though admittedly, challenges remain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计银行业将继续受益于政府在 2026 年的雄心勃勃的经济增长目标，尽管挑战依然存在。</p>
</div><p>The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has a credit growth target of 15 per cent, lower than the 19.1 per cent in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>越南国家银行（SBV）设定的信贷增长目标为 15%，低于 2025 年的 19.1%。</p>
</div><p>Notably, new regulatory measures include quarterly monitoring of credit growth and a requirement that real estate lending must not grow faster than banks’ overall credit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，新监管措施包括对信贷增长的季度监测，以及要求房地产贷款的增长不得快于银行整体信贷的增长。</p>
</div><p>“We believe real estate credit growth in 2026 will enter a phase of cooling and more selective expansion rather than maintaining the strong growth seen in 2025,” the report noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>报告指出：“我们认为，2026 年房地产信贷增长将进入降温和更具选择性的扩张阶段，而不是维持 2025 年的强劲增长。”</p>
</div><p>“But the real estate sector will still remain a significant contributor to loan growth.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“但房地产行业仍将是贷款增长的重要贡献者。”</p>
</div><p>It added that policy moves by the central bank in this area should be closely monitored due to their potential impact on the sector’s growth outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>报告补充说，中央银行在这一领域的政策动向应受到密切关注，因为它们可能对行业的增长前景产生影响。</p>
</div><p>Differences in credit growth quotas between banks are also becoming more pronounced under the SBV’s cautious regulatory approach.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 SBV 的谨慎监管下，各银行之间的信贷增长配额差异也日益明显。</p>
</div><p>Banks involved in restructuring weak financial institutions were granted higher credit growth quotas, while most others were allocated more modest rates of 11–13 per cent at the beginning of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>参与重组弱势金融机构的银行获得了更高的信贷增长配额，而大多数其他银行在年初被分配了 11% 至 13% 的较温和增长率。</p>
</div><p>With the economy’s demand for capital remaining high, room for further credit could become a precious resource in 2026, particularly for real estate lending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着经济对资本的需求保持高位，2026 年进一步信贷的空间可能成为一种宝贵资源，特别是对于房地产贷款。</p>
</div><p>Apart from differences in scale, the structure of loan tenors is also creating pressure on funding demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了规模差异外，贷款期限结构也在对资金需求施加压力。</p>
</div><p>In 2025, banks restructured their asset portfolios toward longer-term lending to improve asset yields and support NIM amid margin compression. This increased the ratio of short-term funds used for medium- and long-term lending, thereby raising funding needs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年，银行将资产组合重组为长期贷款，以提高资产收益率并支持净利差，尽管利差受到压缩。这增加了用于中长期贷款的短期资金比例，从而提高了资金需求。</p>
</div><p>Liquidity has been strongly supported through the SBV’s open market operations (OMO) and State Treasury deposits, with support through them rising to record levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通过 SBV 的公开市场操作（OMO）和国库存款，流动性得到了强有力的支持，支持力度达到了创纪录的水平。</p>
</div><p>State Treasury deposits at state-owned commercial banks topped VNĐ406 trillion by the end of the last quarter of 2025, while outstanding OMO operations regularly remained above VNĐ200 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到 2025 年最后一个季度末，国有商业银行的国库存款超过 406 万亿越南盾，而未偿还的 OMO 操作通常保持在 200 万亿越南盾以上。</p>
</div><p>But interbank interest rates have remained significantly higher than OMO rates, indicating a persistence of liquidity pressures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但银行间利率仍显著高于 OMO 利率，表明流动性压力依然存在。</p>
</div><p>Taking these factors into account, S&amp;I Ratings forecasts NIM to decline slightly to around 3 per cent in 2026, though performance will vary between banks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到这些因素，S&amp;I Ratings 预测 2026 年净利差将略微下降至约 3%，尽管各银行的表现将有所不同。</p>
</div><p>Banks with high current account savings account ratios, lower funding costs and stronger risk management capabilities are expected to stabilise their NIM earlier, thanks to better resilience against interest rate fluctuations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计拥有高活期存款比例、较低融资成本和更强风险管理能力的银行将更早稳定其净利差，因为它们对利率波动的抵御能力更强。</p>
</div><p>Banks that rely heavily on higher-cost market funding may continue to face prolonged margin pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>依赖高成本市场融资的银行可能会继续面临长期的利差压力。</p>
</div><p>“We maintain a moderately positive view on the banking sector for 2026, forecasting industry-wide pre-tax profit growth of around 16 per cent year-on-year,” the report added. — VNS</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>报告补充说：“我们对 2026 年银行业持适度积极的看法，预计行业整体税前利润同比增长约 16%。”——越南新闻社</p>
</div>

银行业的增长将在 2026 年趋于温和