<p>3 月 13 日（路透社）——美国银行全球研究部原本预计英格兰银行将在 3 月开始降息，但现在已将这一预期推迟至 6 月，称能源价格上涨重新激发了通胀风险，并使政策前景变得不明朗。</p>
<p>这家华尔街券商此前曾预计在 3 月和 6 月降息，现在预计今年 6 月和 9 月将各降息 25 个基点。</p>
<p>这一变化是由于中东地缘政治紧张局势推动的能源价格上涨，加大了对通胀和英格兰银行降息轨迹的不确定性。</p>
<p>冲突打乱了对短期通胀的预期，通胀在 1 月份放缓至 3.0%，原本预计在未来几个月将逐渐接近英格兰银行的 2% 目标。</p>
<p>与此同时，布伦特原油价格已回升至每桶 100 美元以上，此前本周早些时候几乎触及 120 美元。</p>
<p>美国银行表示：“如果到时能源价格出现反转，我们可能会在 4 月看到更早的降息，但如果冲突持续，降息的风险将进一步延迟且数量减少。”</p>
<p>英格兰银行可能会维持其宽松倾向，但将强调不确定性增加，而任何政策收紧的门槛仍然很高。</p>
<p>高盛、渣打银行和摩根士丹利也推迟了对英格兰银行宽松政策的预测，现在预计首次降息将在第二季度，因为伊朗战争推高了能源价格和通胀风险。</p>
<p>美国银行在周四的一份报告中表示：“对进一步政策宽松的判断将变得更加困难，” 并指出经济增长的下行风险和疲弱的劳动力市场是影响中央银行决策的关键因素。</p>
<p>如果能源价格保持在当前水平，英国的通胀率可能在年底时约为 3%，而不是国家财政预测者假设的约 2% 的水平，预算责任办公室的一位官员表示。</p>

高盛

GS-C

GS-D

GS-A

美国银行

摩根士丹利

<p>March 13 (Reuters) - BofA Global Research, which had expected the Bank of England to begin cutting rates in March, has now pushed its call to June, saying rising energy prices have revived inflation risks and clouded the policy outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>3 月 13 日（路透社）——美国银行全球研究部原本预计英格兰银行将在 3 月开始降息，但现在已将这一预期推迟至 6 月，称能源价格上涨重新激发了通胀风险，并使政策前景变得不明朗。</p>
</div><p>The Wall Street brokerage, which had earlier pencilled in a cut in March and June, now expects quarter-point reductions in June and September this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这家华尔街券商此前曾预计在 3 月和 6 月降息，现在预计今年 6 月和 9 月将各降息 25 个基点。</p>
</div><p>The shift comes as higher energy prices, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, heighten uncertainty around inflation and the BoE’s rate-cut trajectory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一变化是由于中东地缘政治紧张局势推动的能源价格上涨，加大了对通胀和英格兰银行降息轨迹的不确定性。</p>
</div><p>The conflict has upended near-term expectationsfor inflation, which slowed to 3.0% in January and had been projected to drift toward the BoE’s 2% target in the coming months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>冲突打乱了对短期通胀的预期，通胀在 1 月份放缓至 3.0%，原本预计在未来几个月将逐渐接近英格兰银行的 2% 目标。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Brent crude is back above $100 a barrel, after nearly touching $120 earlier this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，布伦特原油价格已回升至每桶 100 美元以上，此前本周早些时候几乎触及 120 美元。</p>
</div><p>“We could see an earlier cut in April if energy prices move reversely by then, but risks are for further delays and lesser number of cuts this year if the conflict is prolonged,” BofA said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国银行表示：“如果到时能源价格出现反转，我们可能会在 4 月看到更早的降息，但如果冲突持续，降息的风险将进一步延迟且数量减少。”</p>
</div><p>The BoE is likely to maintain its easing bias but will stress that uncertainty has increased, while the bar for any policy tightening remains high, it added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英格兰银行可能会维持其宽松倾向，但将强调不确定性增加，而任何政策收紧的门槛仍然很高。</p>
</div><p>Goldman Sachs, Standard Chartered and Morgan Stanley have also delayed their Bank of England easing forecasts, now expecting the first cut in the second quarter as the Iran war lifts energy prices and inflation risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛、渣打银行和摩根士丹利也推迟了对英格兰银行宽松政策的预测，现在预计首次降息将在第二季度，因为伊朗战争推高了能源价格和通胀风险。</p>
</div><p>“Judgement around further policy easing will become an even closer call,” BofA said in a note on Thursday, pointing to downside risks for growth and a weaker labour market as the key factors shaping the central bank’s decisions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国银行在周四的一份报告中表示：“对进一步政策宽松的判断将变得更加困难，” 并指出经济增长的下行风险和疲弱的劳动力市场是影响中央银行决策的关键因素。</p>
</div><p>Britain’s inflation rate could end the year at around 3%, rather than the roughly 2% rate assumed by the country’s fiscal forecasters, if energy prices remain at current levels, an official at the Office for Budget Responsibility said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果能源价格保持在当前水平，英国的通胀率可能在年底时约为 3%，而不是国家财政预测者假设的约 2% 的水平，预算责任办公室的一位官员表示。</p>
</div>

BofA delays BoE rate-cut call to June as energy prices revive inflation risks

- BofA Global Research 将英格兰银行的降息预期推迟至 6 月。  
- 受能源价格上涨驱动，通胀风险加剧，政策前景变得不明朗。  
- 英国的通胀率若维持现水平，年底可能在 3% 左右。

Reuters

GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC DEP SHS REPSTG 1/1000TH PRF SER C

GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC DEP REP 1/1000TH PRF D

GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC DEP SHR REP 1/1000TH PFD SER A

由于能源价格回升带来了通胀风险，美国银行将英国央行的降息预期推迟至六月