<p>作者：Nimesh Vora</p>
<p>孟买，3 月 13 日（路透社）——七位银行家表示，印度卢比的远期溢价在周五进一步下跌，市场普遍预计印度储备银行可能在进行了一次大规模的外汇干预后，进行外汇掉期。</p>
<p>他们表示，印度储备银行可能选择进行一项为期三年的 100 亿美元美元/卢比买卖掉期。一位银行家表示，规模和期限反映了中央银行过去对类似规模和到期的掉期的偏好。</p>
<p>印度储备银行一直在外汇市场进行干预，以支持卢比，自从中东战争推高油价以来，卢比一直面临持续压力。银行家表示，这次干预涵盖了现货市场、不可交割远期和期货。</p>
<p>周五，卢比兑美元跌至历史最低点 92.4250。自 2 月 28 日战争爆发以来，卢比已贬值约 1.5%。</p>
<p>现货美元销售从银行系统中抽走了卢比流动性，干预的规模引发了对可能进行掉期的猜测。</p>
<p>“印度储备银行通过进行掉期，部分缓解了其现货干预对流动性的影响，主要是针对一年期的掉期，” 一位银行家表示。</p>
<p>“然而，这些掉期的规模相对于干预的规模而言是适度的，这导致市场对更大、更长期操作的猜测。”</p>
<p>印度储备银行今年已经进行了两次三年期 100 亿美元美元/卢比的掉期，分别是在 1 月和 2 月。</p>
<p>这些银行家在未获授权的情况下发言，因此要求匿名。印度储备银行未对此路透社的评论请求作出回应。</p>
<p>对掉期被宣布的押注反映在市场指标中。</p>
<p>三年期美元/卢比的远期点数从周四的日内高点 8.58 卢比降至 8.20 卢比，当时关于掉期的猜测开始出现。周五进一步降至 8.06 卢比。</p>
<p>尽管卢比交易接近历史最低点，远期溢价的下降仍然发生。由于对冲需求增加，货币的疲软通常会支撑溢价。</p>
<p>“关于潜在掉期的讨论引发了一轮头寸平仓。市场中相当一部分人原本是反向布局，因此这些传闻导致了交易的削减，” 一家大型私营银行的外汇掉期和现货交易员表示。</p>
<p>他表示，印度储备银行已经与他的银行讨论了可能的外汇掉期，并补充说，在一个紧张的市场中，猜测往往会产生超出预期的影响。</p>
<p>他认为，传闻中的掉期实际发生的可能性不到六分之一。一家大型外资银行的交易主管则更加怀疑，认为可能性仅为 5% 到 10%。</p>
<p>关于掉期的猜测推动了远期市场的活跃。国有银行、外资银行以及至少一家大型企业财 treasury 都很活跃，周四的交易量在正常市场时间之外异常高，一位银行家表示。</p>
<p>（报道：Nimesh Vora；编辑：Ronojoy Mazumdar）</p>

印度 ETF - WisdomTree

INDH

<p>印度卢比的远期溢价因市场猜测印度储备银行（RBI）可能进行 100 亿美元的外汇掉期而下降，此前该行进行了大规模市场干预。卢比兑美元跌至 92.4250 的历史低点，自中东冲突开始以来下跌约 1.5%。尽管卢比的疲软通常会增加对对冲的需求，但由于交易员根据掉期传闻平仓，远期点数下降。市场活动激增，一些银行家估计掉期发生的概率较低</p>

<p>By Nimesh Vora</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Nimesh Vora</p>
</div><p>MUMBAI, March 13 (Reuters) - Indian rupee forward premiums dropped further on Friday on bets that the Reserve Bank of India may conduct a foreign exchange swap after a sizeable intervention in the currency ‌market, seven bankers said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>孟买，3 月 13 日（路透社）——七位银行家表示，印度卢比的远期溢价在周五进一步下跌，市场普遍预计印度储备银行可能在进行了一次大规模的外汇干预后，进行外汇掉期。</p>
</div><p>They said the RBI may opt to conduct a three-year $10 billion dollar/rupee buy-sell swap. ‌One banker said the size and tenor reflect the central bank’s preference in the past for swaps of similar magnitude and maturity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他们表示，印度储备银行可能选择进行一项为期三年的 100 亿美元美元/卢比买卖掉期。一位银行家表示，规模和期限反映了中央银行过去对类似规模和到期的掉期的偏好。</p>
</div><p>The RBI has been ​intervening in the foreign exchange market to support the rupee, which has been under persistent pressure since the Middle East war pushed oil prices higher. Bankers said the intervention has spanned the spot market, non-deliverable forwards and futures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度储备银行一直在外汇市场进行干预，以支持卢比，自从中东战争推高油价以来，卢比一直面临持续压力。银行家表示，这次干预涵盖了现货市场、不可交割远期和期货。</p>
</div><p>The rupee fell to an all-time low of 92.4250 to the U.S. dollar on Friday. It has lost about 1.5% since the war broke out on February ‌28.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周五，卢比兑美元跌至历史最低点 92.4250。自 2 月 28 日战争爆发以来，卢比已贬值约 1.5%。</p>
</div><p>Spot dollar sales drain rupee liquidity from ⁠the banking system, and the scale of the intervention has fuelled speculation about a possible swap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现货美元销售从银行系统中抽走了卢比流动性，干预的规模引发了对可能进行掉期的猜测。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The RBI has partly diluted the liquidity impact of its spot intervention by conducting swaps, largely ⁠for the one-year tenor,&#34; one banker said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“印度储备银行通过进行掉期，部分缓解了其现货干预对流动性的影响，主要是针对一年期的掉期，” 一位银行家表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;However, the scale of those swaps has been modest relative to the size of the intervention, leading to speculation about a larger, longer tenor operation.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“然而，这些掉期的规模相对于干预的规模而言是适度的，这导致市场对更大、更长期操作的猜测。”</p>
</div><p>The RBI has already conducted two three-year $10 billion dollar/rupee swaps this year, in January ​and ​February.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度储备银行今年已经进行了两次三年期 100 亿美元美元/卢比的掉期，分别是在 1 月和 2 月。</p>
</div><p>The bankers spoke on condition of anonymity since they are not ​authorised to speak to the media. The RBI ‌did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些银行家在未获授权的情况下发言，因此要求匿名。印度储备银行未对此路透社的评论请求作出回应。</p>
</div><p>Bets on a swap being announced are reflected in market indicators.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对掉期被宣布的押注反映在市场指标中。</p>
</div><p>Forward points on the three-year dollar/rupee dropped from an intraday high of 8.58 rupees to 8.20 rupees on Thursday when speculation about the swap began. They fell further to 8.06 rupees on Friday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>三年期美元/卢比的远期点数从周四的日内高点 8.58 卢比降至 8.20 卢比，当时关于掉期的猜测开始出现。周五进一步降至 8.06 卢比。</p>
</div><p>The drop in forward premiums comes despite the rupee trading near its lifetime low. The currency's weakness would normally underpin premiums due to higher hedging demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管卢比交易接近历史最低点，远期溢价的下降仍然发生。由于对冲需求增加，货币的疲软通常会支撑溢价。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The talk of a potential swap has ‌triggered a round of position unwinding. A good portion of the ​market had been positioned the other way, so the rumours have led ​to cutting of the trades,&#34; an FX swap and ​spot trader at a large private sector bank said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“关于潜在掉期的讨论引发了一轮头寸平仓。市场中相当一部分人原本是反向布局，因此这些传闻导致了交易的削减，” 一家大型私营银行的外汇掉期和现货交易员表示。</p>
</div><p>The RBI has discussed a possible FX ‌swap with his bank, he said, adding that in ​a jittery market, speculation tends ​to have a larger impact than warranted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他表示，印度储备银行已经与他的银行讨论了可能的外汇掉期，并补充说，在一个紧张的市场中，猜测往往会产生超出预期的影响。</p>
</div><p>He suggested there is less than a one in six chance of the speculated swap actually taking place. The head of trading at a large foreign bank was more sceptical, placing ​the odds at just 5% to 10%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他认为，传闻中的掉期实际发生的可能性不到六分之一。一家大型外资银行的交易主管则更加怀疑，认为可能性仅为 5% 到 10%。</p>
</div><p>Speculation ‌around the swap has driven heavy activity in the forwards market. State-run, foreign banks and at least ​one large corporate treasury were active, with volumes unusually high well beyond regular market hours on Thursday, ​one banker said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于掉期的猜测推动了远期市场的活跃。国有银行、外资银行以及至少一家大型企业财 treasury 都很活跃，周四的交易量在正常市场时间之外异常高，一位银行家表示。</p>
</div><p>(Reporting by Nimesh Vora; Editing by Ronojoy Mazumdar)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（报道：Nimesh Vora；编辑：Ronojoy Mazumdar）</p>
</div>

银行家称，印度卢比远期溢价显示市场押注印度央行即将进行外汇互换