<p>作者：施布和姚凯文</p>
<p>北京，3 月 13 日（路透社）——中国的新银行贷款在 2 月份大幅下滑，远超预期，较季节性强劲的年初表现急剧回落，疲软的信贷需求继续拖累世界第二大经济体的借贷。</p>
<p>根据路透社基于中国人民银行（PBOC）发布的数据计算，中国银行在 2 月份发放了 9000 亿元人民币（约 1300 亿美元）新贷款，较 1 月份的 4.71 万亿元大幅下降，且低于分析师的预期。</p>
<p>路透社调查的分析师预计，上个月的新人民币贷款将达到 9790 亿元。</p>
<p>通常情况下，2 月份的信贷会下降，因为银行在年初前置贷款，而中国上个月长达九天的农历新年假期也减少了商业活动和贷款需求。</p>
<p>2 月份的贷款额也低于去年同期的 1.01 万亿元，突显出在持续的房地产低迷和谨慎的企业情绪下，借贷需求依然疲软。</p>
<p>人民银行并不提供月度数据分解。路透社根据该行发布的 1-2 月份数据计算出 2 月份的数字，并与 1 月份的数字进行比较。</p>
<p>截至 2 月份，人民币贷款余额同比增长 6.0%——创下历史最低水平，低于 1 月份的 6.1%。分析师预计增长为 6.0%。</p>
<p>资本经济学在一份报告中表示，创纪录的低贷款增长主要是由于家庭借贷的持续低迷。</p>
<p>“政府对消费贷款的利息补贴显然对贷款需求支持有限——2 月份家庭贷款同比仅增长 0.1%。不过，企业贷款略有回升，这表明人民银行最近降低再贷款利率可能在一定程度上支持了企业需求，” 报告中提到。根据路透社的计算，家庭贷款（包括抵押贷款）在 2 月份减少了 6507 亿元，而 1 月份则增加了 4565 亿元，企业贷款则从 4.45 万亿元降至 1.49 万亿元。</p>
<p>上周，人民银行行长潘功胜表示，中国将继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，并灵活运用货币政策工具，如降低存款准备金率和利率，以支持经济增长。</p>
<p>“考虑到对通胀的担忧加剧，近期降低存款准备金率（RRR）或利率的可能性已降低，政策支持可能需要来自财政方面，” 国泰君安国际首席经济学家周浩表示。北京已公布 2026 年经济增长目标略微下调至 4.5%-5%，低于去年的 5%，并承诺将推动国内需求，特别是消费，同时推动整体价格水平在今年进入正增长。北京承诺优先扩大国内需求，并加大对高科技行业的支持，同时宣布计划在今年向主要国有银行注入 3000 亿元以增强贷款能力，防范金融风险。中国将在 2026 年为消费品以旧换新项目预留 2500 亿元超长期特别国债，并宣布设立 1000 亿元财政金融协调基金以刺激国内需求。人民银行数据显示，2 月份广义 M2 货币供应同比增长 9.0%，高于路透社调查分析师预期的 8.8%。1 月份，M2 增长 9%。狭义 M1 货币供应在 2 月份同比增长 5.9%，高于 1 月份的 4.9%。社会融资总量（TSF）——一个广泛的信贷和流动性指标——在 2 月份同比增长 8.2%，与 1 月份持平。任何加速的政府债券发行都可能促进这种融资。</p>

纳斯达克中国金龙指数

中国龙 ETF - Roundhill

中国 MSCI ETF - iShares

中概股 ETF - PowerShares

<p>By Shi Bu and Kevin Yao</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：施布和姚凯文</p>
</div><p>BEIJING, March 13 (Reuters) - New bank lending in China slumped far more than expected in February, retreating sharply from a seasonally strong start to the year as weak credit appetite continued to drag on borrowing in the world’s second-largest economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>北京，3 月 13 日（路透社）——中国的新银行贷款在 2 月份大幅下滑，远超预期，较季节性强劲的年初表现急剧回落，疲软的信贷需求继续拖累世界第二大经济体的借贷。</p>
</div><p>China’s banks extended 900 billion yuan ($130 billion) in new yuan loans in February, plunging from 4.71 trillion yuan in January and missing analysts’ forecasts, according to Reuters calculations based on data released by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据路透社基于中国人民银行（PBOC）发布的数据计算，中国银行在 2 月份发放了 9000 亿元人民币（约 1300 亿美元）新贷款，较 1 月份的 4.71 万亿元大幅下降，且低于分析师的预期。</p>
</div><p>Analysts polled by Reuters had expected new yuan loans would stand at 979 billion yuan last month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>路透社调查的分析师预计，上个月的新人民币贷款将达到 9790 亿元。</p>
</div><p>Credit typically slides in February as banks front-load lending at the start of the year and China’s longest nine-day Lunar New Year holiday last month also reduced business activity and loan demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通常情况下，2 月份的信贷会下降，因为银行在年初前置贷款，而中国上个月长达九天的农历新年假期也减少了商业活动和贷款需求。</p>
</div><p>February’s lending was also below the 1.01 trillion yuan recorded a year earlier, underscoring persistently weak borrowing appetite amid a prolonged property slump and cautious corporate sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2 月份的贷款额也低于去年同期的 1.01 万亿元，突显出在持续的房地产低迷和谨慎的企业情绪下，借贷需求依然疲软。</p>
</div><p>The PBOC does not provide monthly breakdowns. Reuters calculated the February figure based on the bank’s January-February data released on Friday, compared with the January figure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人民银行并不提供月度数据分解。路透社根据该行发布的 1-2 月份数据计算出 2 月份的数字，并与 1 月份的数字进行比较。</p>
</div><p>Outstanding yuan loans grew 6.0% in February from a year earlier - a record low and slower than 6.1% in January. Analysts had expected 6.0% growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2 月份，人民币贷款余额同比增长 6.0%——创下历史最低水平，低于 1 月份的 6.1%。分析师预计增长为 6.0%。</p>
</div><p>The record-low loan growth was driven largely by the continued slump in household borrowing, Capital Economics said in a note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>资本经济学在一份报告中表示，创纪录的低贷款增长主要是由于家庭借贷的持续低迷。</p>
</div><p>“The government’s interest subsidies for consumer loans have clearly done little to support loan demand – bank loans to households expanded by just 0.1% y/y in February. But lending to corporates did pick up a touch though, suggesting that the recent cuts to the PBOC’s relending facility rates may have supported corporate demand at the margin,” it said. Household loans, including mortgages, shrank by 650.7 billion yuan in February after a 456.5 billion yuan rise in January, while corporate loans fell to 1.49 trillion yuan from 4.45 trillion yuan, according to Reuters’ calculations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“政府对消费贷款的利息补贴显然对贷款需求支持有限——2 月份家庭贷款同比仅增长 0.1%。不过，企业贷款略有回升，这表明人民银行最近降低再贷款利率可能在一定程度上支持了企业需求，” 报告中提到。根据路透社的计算，家庭贷款（包括抵押贷款）在 2 月份减少了 6507 亿元，而 1 月份则增加了 4565 亿元，企业贷款则从 4.45 万亿元降至 1.49 万亿元。</p>
</div><p>Last week, PBOC governor Pan Gongsheng said China will continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy this year and use monetary policy tools such as cuts to the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates flexibly to support growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周，人民银行行长潘功胜表示，中国将继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，并灵活运用货币政策工具，如降低存款准备金率和利率，以支持经济增长。</p>
</div><p>“Given rising concerns about inflation, the likelihood of a reserve-requirement ratio (RRR) cut or interest-rate cut in the near term has diminished, and policy support will likely need to come from the fiscal side instead,” said Zhou Hao, chief economist at Guotai Junan International. Beijing has unveiled a slightly lower economic growth target of 4.5%-5% for 2026, down from last year’s 5%, and has pledged to boost domestic demand, particularly consumption, while pushing overall price levels into positive territory this year. Beijing has pledged to prioritise expanding domestic demand and ramp up support for high-tech sectors, while announcing plans to inject 300 billion yuan into major state banks this year to boost lending capacity and guard against financial risks. China will earmark 250 billion yuan in ultra-long special treasury bonds for consumer goods trade-in programs in 2026 and has announced a 100 billion yuan fiscal-financial ​coordination fund to spur domestic demand. Broad M2 money supply grew 9.0% from a year earlier in February, PBOC data showed, above analysts’ 8.8% forecast in the Reuters poll. In January, M2 grew 9%. The narrower M1 money supply grew 5.9% in February from a year earlier, from 4.9% in January. Outstanding total social financing (TSF) - a broad measure of credit and liquidity - rose 8.2% in February from a year earlier, unchanged from 8.2% in January. Any acceleration in government bond issuance could boost such financing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“考虑到对通胀的担忧加剧，近期降低存款准备金率（RRR）或利率的可能性已降低，政策支持可能需要来自财政方面，” 国泰君安国际首席经济学家周浩表示。北京已公布 2026 年经济增长目标略微下调至 4.5%-5%，低于去年的 5%，并承诺将推动国内需求，特别是消费，同时推动整体价格水平在今年进入正增长。北京承诺优先扩大国内需求，并加大对高科技行业的支持，同时宣布计划在今年向主要国有银行注入 3000 亿元以增强贷款能力，防范金融风险。中国将在 2026 年为消费品以旧换新项目预留 2500 亿元超长期特别国债，并宣布设立 1000 亿元财政金融协调基金以刺激国内需求。人民银行数据显示，2 月份广义 M2 货币供应同比增长 9.0%，高于路透社调查分析师预期的 8.8%。1 月份，M2 增长 9%。狭义 M1 货币供应在 2 月份同比增长 5.9%，高于 1 月份的 4.9%。社会融资总量（TSF）——一个广泛的信贷和流动性指标——在 2 月份同比增长 8.2%，与 1 月份持平。任何加速的政府债券发行都可能促进这种融资。</p>
</div>

Chinese new loans slump more than expected as weak demand persists

- 中国 2 月份新贷款降至 9000 亿元人民币，远低于分析师预期。  
- 房地产低迷和企业信心不足导致信贷需求疲软，贷款余额同比增长 6.0%。  
- 人民银行将继续实施宽松货币政策，以支持经济和消费增长。

由于需求持续疲软，中国新增贷款的下降幅度超过了预期