<p>作者：Bharath Rajeswaran</p>
<p>3 月 13 日（路透社）——印度基准股指本周从历史高点下跌 10%，确认了技术性修正，这是一个广泛关注的阈值，标志着市场出现了显著回调，原因是伊朗战争和飙升的油价导致持续抛售。</p>
<p>这场冲突已蔓延至中东大部分地区，预计将对印度的宏观经济前景产生压力，外国投资者正在撤出高风险的新兴市场。</p>
<p>周四，Nifty 50 收盘时比今年早些时候创下的 26,373.20 的历史高点低 10.4%。BSE Sensex 在前一天收盘时比其 86,159.02 的历史高点低 10.8%。</p>
<p>它们本周收盘时分别比历史高点低 12.2% 和 13.5%。</p>
<p>Profitmart Securities 的研究总监 Avinash Gorakshakar 表示：“市场上出现了绝对的恐慌性抛售”，因为原油价格飙升引发了对能源安全、盈利压力、货币稳定性和消费疲软的担忧。</p>
<p>技术指标</p>
<p>SBI 证券技术与衍生品研究负责人 Sudeep Shah 表示：“移动平均线和基于动量的指标继续暗示看跌的基调，表明短期趋势仍然承压。”</p>
<p>Nifty 和 Sensex 均低于其关键的 50 日、100 日和 200 日移动平均线，这意味着疲软的趋势正在向中长期信号扩散。</p>
<p>当一个指数突破所有这些水平时，意味着动量急剧恶化，买入支撑减弱。</p>
<p>这些移动平均线被机构、交易员和外国投资者广泛跟踪，突破可能会触发新的风险控制和抛售压力。</p>
<p>基准指数的相对强弱指数（RSI）本周也跌破 30，表明它们已进入超卖区域。</p>
<p>超卖状态表明抛售可能过度，尽管这也可能表明看跌动能仍然强烈。</p>
<p>外国投资者恢复抛售</p>
<p>自伊朗战争开始以来，外国投资者已出售价值 57.3 亿美元的印度股票，3 月份的资金外流已是 14 个月以来的最高水平。</p>
<p>Gorakshakar 表示：“在没有明确情况之前，（外国抛售）将继续扰乱市场，外国投资者不太可能以有意义的方式回到印度。”</p>
<p>尽管外国投资者抛售印度股票，但国内投资者仍在买入，尽管资金流入有所减缓，新 SIP 注册也放缓。</p>
<p>Germinate Investor Services 首席执行官 Santosh Joseph 表示：“在市场横盘或低迷的背景下，这是自然现象，因为散户投资者往往会等待更清晰的市场方向。”</p>
<p>（由 Bharath Rajeswaran 在班加罗尔报道；Janane Venkatraman 编辑）</p>

印度 Nifty 50 等权重 ETF - First Trust

<p>印度的股指基准，Nifty 和 Sensex，因伊朗战争和油价上涨确认了从历史高点下跌 10% 的技术修正。Nifty 收盘时比其峰值低 10.4%，而 Sensex 下跌了 10.8%。市场出现了恐慌性抛售，自冲突开始以来，外国投资者已抛售了 57.3 亿美元的股票。两个指数均低于关键移动平均线，显示出看跌趋势。尽管外国抛售持续，国内投资者仍然活跃，但在市场不确定性中，资金流入有所减缓</p>

<p>By Bharath Rajeswaran</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Bharath Rajeswaran</p>
</div><p>March 13 (Reuters) - India's benchmark equity indexes fell 10% from their all-time highs this week, confirming a technical correction, a widely watched threshold that signals a meaningful ‌market pullback, on persistent selling due to the Iran war and soaring oil prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>3 月 13 日（路透社）——印度基准股指本周从历史高点下跌 10%，确认了技术性修正，这是一个广泛关注的阈值，标志着市场出现了显著回调，原因是伊朗战争和飙升的油价导致持续抛售。</p>
</div><p>The ‌conflict, which has spread across large parts of the Middle East, is expected to weigh on India's macroeconomic outlook with foreign ​investors pulling out from higher-risk emerging markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这场冲突已蔓延至中东大部分地区，预计将对印度的宏观经济前景产生压力，外国投资者正在撤出高风险的新兴市场。</p>
</div><p>The Nifty 50 on Thursday closed 10.4% below its record high of 26,373.20 hit earlier this year. The BSE Sensex settled 10.8% below its lifetime peak of 86,159.02 a day earlier.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周四，Nifty 50 收盘时比今年早些时候创下的 26,373.20 的历史高点低 10.4%。BSE Sensex 在前一天收盘时比其 86,159.02 的历史高点低 10.8%。</p>
</div><p>They closed the week 12.2% and 13.5% below their record high levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它们本周收盘时分别比历史高点低 12.2% 和 13.5%。</p>
</div><p>&#34;There is absolute panic selling in ‌markets,&#34; said Avinash Gorakshakar, director of ⁠research at Profitmart Securities, as spiking crude prices fan worries over energy security, earnings stress, currency stability and softer consumption.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Profitmart Securities 的研究总监 Avinash Gorakshakar 表示：“市场上出现了绝对的恐慌性抛售”，因为原油价格飙升引发了对能源安全、盈利压力、货币稳定性和消费疲软的担忧。</p>
</div><p>TECHNICAL INDICATORS</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>技术指标</p>
</div><p>&#34;Moving averages and momentum-based indicators continue to ⁠suggest a bearish undertone, indicating that the near-term trend remains under pressure,&#34; said Sudeep Shah, head of technical and derivatives research at SBI Securities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>SBI 证券技术与衍生品研究负责人 Sudeep Shah 表示：“移动平均线和基于动量的指标继续暗示看跌的基调，表明短期趋势仍然承压。”</p>
</div><p>Both Nifty and Sensex are trading below their key 50-day, 100-day and 200-day ​moving averages, ​implying that the weakness is spreading across medium- and ​long-term trend signals as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nifty 和 Sensex 均低于其关键的 50 日、100 日和 200 日移动平均线，这意味着疲软的趋势正在向中长期信号扩散。</p>
</div><p>When an index ‌breaks all these levels, it implies that momentum has deteriorated sharply and buying support has thinned out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当一个指数突破所有这些水平时，意味着动量急剧恶化，买入支撑减弱。</p>
</div><p>These moving averages are widely tracked by institutions, traders and foreign investors, with the breaches potentially triggering fresh risk controls and selling pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些移动平均线被机构、交易员和外国投资者广泛跟踪，突破可能会触发新的风险控制和抛售压力。</p>
</div><p>The benchmark indexes' relative strength index, or RSI, also fell below 30 this week, signalling they have moved into oversold territory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基准指数的相对强弱指数（RSI）本周也跌破 30，表明它们已进入超卖区域。</p>
</div><p>Oversold conditions suggest the selling may have been excessive, though ‌it can also indicate that bearish momentum remains intense.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>超卖状态表明抛售可能过度，尽管这也可能表明看跌动能仍然强烈。</p>
</div><p>FOREIGN INVESTORS ​RESUME SELLING</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>外国投资者恢复抛售</p>
</div><p>Foreign portfolio investors have sold $5.73 billion worth of Indian ​equities since the Iran war began, with ​March outflows so far already the highest in 14 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自伊朗战争开始以来，外国投资者已出售价值 57.3 亿美元的印度股票，3 月份的资金外流已是 14 个月以来的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Until there is some ‌clarity, (foreign selling) will continue to roil markets and ​foreign investors are unlikely ​to return to India in a meaningful way,&#34; said Gorakshakar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Gorakshakar 表示：“在没有明确情况之前，（外国抛售）将继续扰乱市场，外国投资者不太可能以有意义的方式回到印度。”</p>
</div><p>Even as foreign investors dumped Indian stocks, domestic investors remained buyers, though there has been a moderation in inflows and slowdown in ​new SIP registrations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管外国投资者抛售印度股票，但国内投资者仍在买入，尽管资金流入有所减缓，新 SIP 注册也放缓。</p>
</div><p>&#34;This is natural in ‌the context of a sideways or a subdued market as retail investors tend to ​wait for clearer market direction,&#34; said Santosh Joseph, chief executive at Germinate Investor Services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Germinate Investor Services 首席执行官 Santosh Joseph 表示：“在市场横盘或低迷的背景下，这是自然现象，因为散户投资者往往会等待更清晰的市场方向。”</p>
</div><p>(Reporting ​by Bharath Rajeswaran in Bengaluru; Editing by Janane Venkatraman)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（由 Bharath Rajeswaran 在班加罗尔报道；Janane Venkatraman 编辑）</p>
</div>

印度股市基准因伊朗战争和原油价格确认出现调整；技术面疲软