<p>原油价格继续主导市场走势，随着我们接近这一波动性一周的结束。布伦特原油在夜间交易中突破每桶 100 美元，这导致各大指数普遍下跌，而美元则继续上涨。但随着油价略微回落，这些走势也同步回撤，欧元在其低点也找到了些许支撑。然而，压力依然存在，中东冲突没有结束的迹象。我们可能会看到油价进一步上涨，而 EUR/USD 可能会在突破 1.1500 后进一步下跌。由于油价可能进一步上涨，我们的 EUR/USD 预测仍然倾向于下行。</p>
<h2>原油预测：市场寻求平衡油价</h2>
<p>油价的波动是可以理解的。交易者正在试图弄清楚当前原油的合理价值，考虑到紧急石油储备的大量释放，以及对已经在海上的俄罗斯石油销售的临时放松制裁。这一决定是在美国和以色列对伊朗的打击以及德黑兰在海湾的报复性攻击导致油价大幅上涨后做出的。这些报复性攻击有效地封锁了战略重要的霍尔木兹海峡。大约 20% 的全球石油供应通常通过这条狭窄的水道，那里发生的干扰正在阻碍油轮交通，并引发对全球能源供应的担忧。到目前为止，市场并没有被说服西方采取的措施能够抵消霍尔木兹海峡持续的干扰。如果布伦特油价今天晚些时候重新上涨并保持在 100 美元以上，那么风险资产可能会再次承压。短期支撑位在 97.50 美元左右。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.03.13%20uk%20oil%20chart.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.03.13%20uk%20oil%20chart.png"/></p>
<h2>EUR/USD 预测：美元目前完全受到油价的支撑</h2>
<p>本周地缘政治紧张局势加剧，原油价格飙升，风险偏好降低。市场反应跟随了莫赫塔巴·哈梅内伊确认霍尔木兹海峡的封闭可能仍然是对敌人的战略工具。他还警告如果冲突持续，可能会出现额外的战线，这取决于国家利益。这些评论迅速在金融市场引发波动，导致油价再次飙升。布伦特原油短暂突破 100 美元后回落。作为回应，在这场冲突中，美元强劲反弹，乍一看似乎有些反常。毕竟，市场越来越定价其他中央银行可能采取更紧缩的政策。通常，这会对美元施加压力。然而，情况正好相反，因为 a) 美国是能源出口国，b) 油价冲击对依赖能源进口的经济体产生了巨大的负面经济影响。这使得 EUR/USD 的预测倾向于下行。</p>
<p>中东局势动荡不安，可能在本周恶化。关于伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡部署地雷的报道迅速提醒市场，地缘政治局势仍可能恶化。随着全球能源供应中断的风险再次上升，市场情绪变得防御性——因此美元的需求应该保持强劲。高油价迫使市场重新评估通胀风险，这反过来又触发了对利率预期的鹰派重新定价，并提高了滞胀的风险。</p>
<h2>美元还能走多远？</h2>
<p>在短期内，美元可能没有明确的上限。这一切都取决于与伊朗的局势。如果冲突拖延，霍尔木兹海峡的干扰持续时间超出预期，那么我看不出交易者会开始大规模抛售美元，除了正常的获利了结。这可能会推动油价上涨，收紧金融条件，并可能引发股票的更深幅度抛售。随着时间的推移，这种情况可能会将全球经济推向衰退。</p>
<p>如果政治压力加大，油价重新回到三位数区域，股市再次承压，那么我们可能会看到特朗普采取 “TACO” 行动，发出突然降级的信号。市场反应可能会类似于特朗普暗示冲突可能很快结束时的情况——只是规模更大。但目前，地缘政治不确定性、高油价和重仓空头头寸的解除继续为美元提供强有力的支撑，使 EUR/USD 的预测倾向于下行。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.03.13%20eurusd.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.03.13%20eurusd.png"/></p>
<p>随着 1.15 的支撑位被突破，现在这是 EUR/USD 上最重要的阻力位，接下来是 1.1530，然后是 1.1578。下一个潜在的下行目标是 2025 年 8 月的低点 1.1391。</p>
<p>本文中使用的所有图表来源：TradingView.com</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></p>
<p>-- 作者：Fawad Razaqzada，市场分析师</p>
<p>在 Twitter 上关注 Fawad @Trader_F_R</p>

德银美元指数 做多 - PowerShares

BRNT

美国布伦特原油期货基金

<p>原油价格正在影响市场趋势，布伦特原油交易价格超过每桶 100 美元，导致各大指数下跌，美元走强。由于持续的地缘政治紧张局势和潜在的油价进一步上涨，EUR/USD 的预测呈看跌态势，尤其是在突破 1.1500 水平之后。霍尔木兹海峡的局势依然严峻，影响全球能源供应。美元的强势得益于其作为能源出口国的地位，而高企的油价则引发了通胀担忧，可能导致滞涨。预计 EUR/USD 将面临进一步的下行风险</p>

<p>Crude oil is continuing to dictate direction for markets as we head towards the end of a volatile week. Brent oil traded above $100 per barrel overnight and that saw indices drop across the board while the dollar extended its upsurge. But as oil came back down a bit, those moves unwound in unison, and the euro also found some mild support at its lows. However, the pressure remains with no end in sight in the Middle East conflict. We could yet see more gains for oil prices while the EUR/USD could break further lower now that it has taken out the 1.1500 handle. Our EUR/USD forecast remains tilted to the downside owing to elevated risks of oil pushing even higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>原油价格继续主导市场走势，随着我们接近这一波动性一周的结束。布伦特原油在夜间交易中突破每桶 100 美元，这导致各大指数普遍下跌，而美元则继续上涨。但随着油价略微回落，这些走势也同步回撤，欧元在其低点也找到了些许支撑。然而，压力依然存在，中东冲突没有结束的迹象。我们可能会看到油价进一步上涨，而 EUR/USD 可能会在突破 1.1500 后进一步下跌。由于油价可能进一步上涨，我们的 EUR/USD 预测仍然倾向于下行。</p>
</div><h2>Crude oil forecast: Markets seeking equilibrium oil price</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>原油预测：市场寻求平衡油价</h2>
</div><p>The volatility in oil prices is understandable. Traders are trying to figure out what a fair value for crude oil is right now, given the big release of emergency oil reserves, and the temporary relaxation of sanctions on Russian oil sales that’s already at sea. This decision follows the big uprise in oil prices as a result of the US-Israel strikes on Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory attacks across the Gulf. Those retaliatory attacks have effectively blocked transit through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 20% of global oil supply normally passes through this narrow waterway, and disruptions there are halting tanker traffic and raising concerns about global energy supplies. So far, the market hasn’t been convinced that the measures taken by the West will offset the ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. If Brent starts rising back above $100 and holding there later today, then risk assets could come under renewed pressure. Short-term support is around $97.50.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油价的波动是可以理解的。交易者正在试图弄清楚当前原油的合理价值，考虑到紧急石油储备的大量释放，以及对已经在海上的俄罗斯石油销售的临时放松制裁。这一决定是在美国和以色列对伊朗的打击以及德黑兰在海湾的报复性攻击导致油价大幅上涨后做出的。这些报复性攻击有效地封锁了战略重要的霍尔木兹海峡。大约 20% 的全球石油供应通常通过这条狭窄的水道，那里发生的干扰正在阻碍油轮交通，并引发对全球能源供应的担忧。到目前为止，市场并没有被说服西方采取的措施能够抵消霍尔木兹海峡持续的干扰。如果布伦特油价今天晚些时候重新上涨并保持在 100 美元以上，那么风险资产可能会再次承压。短期支撑位在 97.50 美元左右。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.03.13%20uk%20oil%20chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.03.13%20uk%20oil%20chart.png"/></p>
<h2>EUR/USD forecast: Dollar remains supported for now entirely by oil</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>EUR/USD 预测：美元目前完全受到油价的支撑</h2>
</div><p>Geopolitical tensions intensified this week, and crude oil prices surged, leaving risk appetite low. Market reactions followed Mojtaba Khamenei’s confirmation that the Strait of Hormuz closure could remain a strategic tool against adversaries. He also warned of potential additional fronts if the conflict persists, contingent on national interests. These comments quickly rippled through financial markets, causing oil prices to surge again. Brent crude oil briefly broke above $100 before falling back. In response, the US dollar has staged a powerful rebound during this conflict, and at first glance it might seem counterintuitive. After all, markets are increasingly pricing the possibility of tighter policy from other central banks. Normally, that would weigh on the greenback. Yet the opposite is happening, because a) the US is an energy exporter, and b) the oil shock is having a big negative economic impact on economies that rely on energy imports. This is keeping the EUR/USD forecast tilted to the downside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周地缘政治紧张局势加剧，原油价格飙升，风险偏好降低。市场反应跟随了莫赫塔巴·哈梅内伊确认霍尔木兹海峡的封闭可能仍然是对敌人的战略工具。他还警告如果冲突持续，可能会出现额外的战线，这取决于国家利益。这些评论迅速在金融市场引发波动，导致油价再次飙升。布伦特原油短暂突破 100 美元后回落。作为回应，在这场冲突中，美元强劲反弹，乍一看似乎有些反常。毕竟，市场越来越定价其他中央银行可能采取更紧缩的政策。通常，这会对美元施加压力。然而，情况正好相反，因为 a) 美国是能源出口国，b) 油价冲击对依赖能源进口的经济体产生了巨大的负面经济影响。这使得 EUR/USD 的预测倾向于下行。</p>
</div><p>The situation in the middle east is volatile and could deteriorate over the week. Reports that Iran had deployed mines in the Strait of Hormuz quickly reminded markets that the geopolitical situation could still deteriorate. With the risk of disruption to global energy supply rising again, the mood is turning defensive — and the dollar should remain in demand as a result. Elevated oil prices are forcing markets to reassess inflation risks, which in turn has triggered a hawkish repricing of interest-rate expectations and raising risks of stagflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中东局势动荡不安，可能在本周恶化。关于伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡部署地雷的报道迅速提醒市场，地缘政治局势仍可能恶化。随着全球能源供应中断的风险再次上升，市场情绪变得防御性——因此美元的需求应该保持强劲。高油价迫使市场重新评估通胀风险，这反过来又触发了对利率预期的鹰派重新定价，并提高了滞胀的风险。</p>
</div><h2>How much further can the dollar run?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美元还能走多远？</h2>
</div><p>In the short term, there may not be a clear ceiling for the greenback. It all depends on the situation with Iran. If the conflict drags on and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist longer than expected, then I can’t see why traders will start selling the dollar aggressively, beyond normal profit--taking here and there. That would likely push oil prices higher, tighten financial conditions and potentially trigger a deeper sell-off in equities. Over time, such conditions could tip the global economy towards recession.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在短期内，美元可能没有明确的上限。这一切都取决于与伊朗的局势。如果冲突拖延，霍尔木兹海峡的干扰持续时间超出预期，那么我看不出交易者会开始大规模抛售美元，除了正常的获利了结。这可能会推动油价上涨，收紧金融条件，并可能引发股票的更深幅度抛售。随着时间的推移，这种情况可能会将全球经济推向衰退。</p>
</div><p>If the political pressure mounts as oil prices push back into triple-digit territory and equity markets come under renewed strain, then we may see Trump doing a “TACO” and signals an abrupt de-escalation. The market reaction could mirror what we saw when Trump hinted the conflict might end soon — only on a much larger scale. But for now, the combination of geopolitical uncertainty, higher oil prices and the unwinding of heavy short positions continue to provide strong support for the US dollar, keeping the EUR/USD forecast tilted to downside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果政治压力加大，油价重新回到三位数区域，股市再次承压，那么我们可能会看到特朗普采取 “TACO” 行动，发出突然降级的信号。市场反应可能会类似于特朗普暗示冲突可能很快结束时的情况——只是规模更大。但目前，地缘政治不确定性、高油价和重仓空头头寸的解除继续为美元提供强有力的支撑，使 EUR/USD 的预测倾向于下行。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.03.13%20eurusd.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.03.13%20eurusd.png"/></p>
<p>With 1.15 handle taken out, this is now the most important resistance to watch on the EUR/USD, followed by 1.1530 and then 1.1578. The next potential downside targets it he August 2025 low of 1.1391.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着 1.15 的支撑位被突破，现在这是 EUR/USD 上最重要的阻力位，接下来是 1.1530，然后是 1.1578。下一个潜在的下行目标是 2025 年 8 月的低点 1.1391。</p>
</div><p>Source for all charts used in this article: TradingView.com</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文中使用的所有图表来源：TradingView.com</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<p>-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-- 作者：Fawad Razaqzada，市场分析师</p>
</div><p>Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Twitter 上关注 Fawad @Trader_F_R</p>
</div>

欧元/美元和原油预测：外汇市场周五分析 |2026年3月13日