<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/Iran-.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/Iran-.png"/></p>
<p>美国与伊朗的冲突在 3 月 13 日进入第 14 天，随着局势没有明显结束的迹象，投资者开始寻找对冲以弥补损失。</p>
<p>目前，没有任何策略似乎有效，因为股票下跌，债券走弱，美元、石油和黄金都受到同样的地缘政治冲击，投资者正在寻找新的方式来保护他们的资本。</p>
<p>在这种情况下，华尔街传统的 60/40 投资组合看起来远不如往常可靠，投资者正在寻找逃离战争驱动的通货膨胀、波动性和政策不确定性的办法。</p>
<p>但是，各方分析师正在为投资者提供他们的分析，以下是您在危机时期如何创建安全网的方法。</p>
<h2>1. 购买下行保护</h2>
<p>最明显的变化之一是转向看跌期权和其他形式的投资组合保险。这一转变尤其有趣，因为本月广泛的多样化并没有提供太多保护。</p>
<p>高盛对此表示赞同，称其 “通过非线性股票下行保护、信用对冲以及在我们的尾部风险对冲策略中部署干粉，略微降低了净股票贝塔。”</p>
<p>这家投资银行表示，目标是创造 “下行凸性和不对称保护”，同时仍然保留一些上行空间。</p>
<p>其他分析师采取了类似的方法，将股票敞口削减至中性立场，并通过股票和公司债券的看跌期权增加对冲，以保护投资组合免受进一步市场下跌的影响。</p>
<p>这很重要，因为这不是一个正常的风险规避时期。</p>
<p>通常能缓冲股票损失的政府债券，正与股票朝同一方向移动，因此支付明确的保险费用看起来比单靠多样化更划算。</p>
<h2>2. 持有更多美元和现金</h2>
<p>美国与伊朗战争带来的另一个趋势是美元的强劲回归。</p>
<p>Pictet 资产管理公司表示，其投资组合 “增加了对美元的配置”，认为该货币的 “避风港功能应该凸显出来。”</p>
<p>分析师们还预测，如果冲突持续，美元还有升值空间。</p>
<p>自冲突开始以来，尽管股票下跌和债券收益率上升，美元却在走强，这种混合情况突显了市场的异常。</p>
<p>持有更多美元为投资者提供了防御性资产和在股票或信用价格重置下行时的干粉。</p>
<h2>3. 拥有与霍尔木兹海峡相关的商品</h2>
<p>如果这场冲突有一个市场神经中心，那就是霍尔木兹海峡。</p>
<p>高盛警告称，“油价暂时飙升至每桶 100 美元可能会使全球增长放缓 0.4 个百分点。”</p>
<p>麦格理策略师 Vikas Dwivedi 表示，如果危机持续，油价可能攀升至每桶 150 美元，并警告说，任何物流中断都可能在能源市场引发多米诺效应。</p>
<p>这就是为什么一些投资者不仅关注原油，还关注与同一中断渠道相关的更广泛商品篮子。</p>
<p>食用油和铝也因冲突引发的供应担忧和通货膨胀预期而走强。</p>
<h2>4. 将黄金作为核心对冲</h2>
<p>本月黄金的走势并不平稳，但它仍然是市场首选的避风港之一。</p>
<p>根据美国银行的调查，50% 的受访者认为黄金是最佳对冲，即使在过去一年中该金属经历了巨大的涨幅。</p>
<p>尽管随着战争的加剧，黄金价格变得波动，但数据显示它仍然是对抗更广泛不确定性的首选对冲之一。</p>
<p>黄金仍然重要的一个简单原因是，即使美元强劲。</p>
<p>彭博策略师 Skylar Montgomery Koning 在 3 月初表示，虽然美元可以成为主要的避风港，但当投资者开始担心能源冲击会推动通货膨胀时，黄金具有优势。</p>
<h2>5. 谨慎选择股票，而不是盲目跟风</h2>
<p>这个市场的最后一课是，并不是每个 “战争交易” 在大家都涌入时都能奏效。</p>
<p>分析师警告称，“在大多数投资者意识到之前，这些行业的收益已经大部分被定价。”</p>
<p>换句话说，以任何价格购买防御或能源并不是一种独立的策略。</p>
<p>不过，在剧烈的市场波动后，选择性购买是有意义的。</p>
<p>Advis Wealth 的首席执行官 Eddie Ghabour 表示，抛售创造了 “投资者重新配置的绝佳机会。”</p>
<p>伊朗战争正在破坏您的投资组合：以下是修复它的 5 种方法，首发于 Invezz</p>

GDXW

油气开采 ETF - SPDR

美国 WTI 原油 ETF

<p>正在进行的美伊冲突促使投资者寻求保护策略，因为股票和债券正在下跌。分析师建议五种保护投资组合的方法：1）通过卖出期权购买下行保护；2）增加现金和美元持有量作为避风港；3）投资与霍尔木兹海峡相关的商品；4）将黄金作为核心对冲；5）选择性地挑选股票，而不是盲目跟随趋势。这些策略旨在应对当前由地缘政治紧张局势引发的市场波动和通货膨胀</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/Iran-.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/Iran-.png"/></p>
<p>The US-Iran conflict has entered its 14th day on Friday, March 13th, and with no clear end in sight, the investors have started hunting for hedges to recover their losses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国与伊朗的冲突在 3 月 13 日进入第 14 天，随着局势没有明显结束的迹象，投资者开始寻找对冲以弥补损失。</p>
</div><p>Currently, no strategy seems to be working as stocks are falling, bonds have weakened, and with the dollar, oil, and gold all pulled into the same geopolitical shock, investors are looking for new ways to protect their capital.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，没有任何策略似乎有效，因为股票下跌，债券走弱，美元、石油和黄金都受到同样的地缘政治冲击，投资者正在寻找新的方式来保护他们的资本。</p>
</div><p>In such a scenario, Wall Street's traditional 60/40 playbook looked far less reliable than usual, and investors are looking for a way out of a war-driven mix of inflation, volatility, and policy uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种情况下，华尔街传统的 60/40 投资组合看起来远不如往常可靠，投资者正在寻找逃离战争驱动的通货膨胀、波动性和政策不确定性的办法。</p>
</div><p>But, analysts across the board are providing investors with their analysis, and here's how you can create a safety net in times of crisis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但是，各方分析师正在为投资者提供他们的分析，以下是您在危机时期如何创建安全网的方法。</p>
</div><h2>1. Buy downside protection</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 购买下行保护</h2>
</div><p>One of the clearest shifts has been toward put options and other forms of portfolio insurance. The shift is particularly interesting because broad diversification has not offered much cover this month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最明显的变化之一是转向看跌期权和其他形式的投资组合保险。这一转变尤其有趣，因为本月广泛的多样化并没有提供太多保护。</p>
</div><p>The sentiment was echoed by Goldman Sachs, which said that it had “slightly reduced net equity beta through a combination of non-linear equity downside protection, credit hedges, and deployment of dry powder in our tail risk hedging strategies.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛对此表示赞同，称其 “通过非线性股票下行保护、信用对冲以及在我们的尾部风险对冲策略中部署干粉，略微降低了净股票贝塔。”</p>
</div><p>The investment bank said that the goal is to create “downside convexity and asymmetric protection” while still preserving some upside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这家投资银行表示，目标是创造 “下行凸性和不对称保护”，同时仍然保留一些上行空间。</p>
</div><p>Other analysts took a similar approach, cutting equity exposure to a neutral stance and adding hedges through put options on both stocks and corporate bonds to protect portfolios from further market declines.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他分析师采取了类似的方法，将股票敞口削减至中性立场，并通过股票和公司债券的看跌期权增加对冲，以保护投资组合免受进一步市场下跌的影响。</p>
</div><p>This matters because it is not a normal risk-off episode.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这很重要，因为这不是一个正常的风险规避时期。</p>
</div><p>The government bonds, which usually cushion stock losses, have been moving in the same direction as equities, so paying for explicit insurance looks less expensive than pretending diversification alone will do the job.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通常能缓冲股票损失的政府债券，正与股票朝同一方向移动，因此支付明确的保险费用看起来比单靠多样化更划算。</p>
</div><h2>2. Hold more dollars and cash</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 持有更多美元和现金</h2>
</div><p>One more trend emerging from the US-Iran war is the strong comeback of the dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国与伊朗战争带来的另一个趋势是美元的强劲回归。</p>
</div><p>Pictet Asset Management said its portfolios had “increased their weighting in the US dollar,” arguing that the currency’s “function as a safe harbour should come to the fore.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Pictet 资产管理公司表示，其投资组合 “增加了对美元的配置”，认为该货币的 “避风港功能应该凸显出来。”</p>
</div><p>The analysts also predicted that the dollar has room to appreciate if the conflict drags on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师们还预测，如果冲突持续，美元还有升值空间。</p>
</div><p>Since the beginning of the conflict, the dollar has strengthened even as stocks fell and bond yields climbed, a mix that underlines how unusual this market has become.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自冲突开始以来，尽管股票下跌和债券收益率上升，美元却在走强，这种混合情况突显了市场的异常。</p>
</div><p>Holding more dollars gives investors both a defensive asset and dry powder in case prices reset lower across equities or credit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>持有更多美元为投资者提供了防御性资产和在股票或信用价格重置下行时的干粉。</p>
</div><h2>3. Own the commodities linked to Hormuz</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. 拥有与霍尔木兹海峡相关的商品</h2>
</div><p>If this conflict has a market nerve center, it is the Strait of Hormuz.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果这场冲突有一个市场神经中心，那就是霍尔木兹海峡。</p>
</div><p>Goldman Sachs warned that “a temporary surge in oil prices to $100 per barrel could slow global growth by 0.4 percentage points.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛警告称，“油价暂时飙升至每桶 100 美元可能会使全球增长放缓 0.4 个百分点。”</p>
</div><p>Macquarie strategist Vikas Dwivedi said oil could climb to around $150 a barrel if the crisis drags on, warning that any disruption to logistics could trigger a domino effect across energy markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>麦格理策略师 Vikas Dwivedi 表示，如果危机持续，油价可能攀升至每桶 150 美元，并警告说，任何物流中断都可能在能源市场引发多米诺效应。</p>
</div><p>That is why some investors are looking not just at crude, but at a wider basket tied to the same disruption channel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是为什么一些投资者不仅关注原油，还关注与同一中断渠道相关的更广泛商品篮子。</p>
</div><p>The edible oils and aluminum also strengthened as the conflict-fueled supply worries and inflation fears across commodities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>食用油和铝也因冲突引发的供应担忧和通货膨胀预期而走强。</p>
</div><h2>4. Keep gold as a core hedge</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>4. 将黄金作为核心对冲</h2>
</div><p>Gold has not moved in a straight line this month, but it remains one of the market’s preferred shelters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本月黄金的走势并不平稳，但它仍然是市场首选的避风港之一。</p>
</div><p>As per a Bank of America survey, 50% of respondents saw gold as the best hedge, even after a huge run in the metal over the past year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据美国银行的调查，50% 的受访者认为黄金是最佳对冲，即使在过去一年中该金属经历了巨大的涨幅。</p>
</div><p>While gold prices have turned volatile with the intensity of war, the data shows it still remains one of the top preferred hedges against the broader uncertainity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管随着战争的加剧，黄金价格变得波动，但数据显示它仍然是对抗更广泛不确定性的首选对冲之一。</p>
</div><p>There is a simple reason gold still matters even when the dollar is firm.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金仍然重要的一个简单原因是，即使美元强劲。</p>
</div><p>Bloomberg strategist Skylar Montgomery Koning argued in early March that while the dollar can be the main safe haven, gold has the edge when investors start worrying that an energy shock will feed inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>彭博策略师 Skylar Montgomery Koning 在 3 月初表示，虽然美元可以成为主要的避风港，但当投资者开始担心能源冲击会推动通货膨胀时，黄金具有优势。</p>
</div><h2>5. Pick stocks carefully, not blindly</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>5. 谨慎选择股票，而不是盲目跟风</h2>
</div><p>The final lesson from this market is that not every “war trade” works once everyone piles in.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这个市场的最后一课是，并不是每个 “战争交易” 在大家都涌入时都能奏效。</p>
</div><p>The analysts warned that “by the time most investors have caught on, the gains in those sectors have largely been priced in.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师警告称，“在大多数投资者意识到之前，这些行业的收益已经大部分被定价。”</p>
</div><p>In other words, buying defense or energy at any price is not a strategy on its own.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，以任何价格购买防御或能源并不是一种独立的策略。</p>
</div><p>Still, selective buying can make sense after sharp dislocations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，在剧烈的市场波动后，选择性购买是有意义的。</p>
</div><p>Eddie Ghabour, chief executive of Advis Wealth, said the selloff created “a prime opportunity for investors to reposition.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Advis Wealth 的首席执行官 Eddie Ghabour 表示，抛售创造了 “投资者重新配置的绝佳机会。”</p>
</div><p>The post Iran war is breaking your portfolio: here are 5 ways to fix it appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗战争正在破坏您的投资组合：以下是修复它的 5 种方法，首发于 Invezz</p>
</div>

伊朗战争正在影响你的投资组合：以下是修复它的 5 种方法