<p>预测市场交易者预计特朗普政府在 6 月 30 日之前取消至少一项琼斯法案的国内航运要求的概率为 62%，这一举措可能会为 <strong>瓦莱罗能源公司</strong> (NYSE: VLO) 带来重大物流优势。</p>
<p>Polymarket 合同 于 3 月 9 日开放，如果在截止日期之前通过立法或行政行动取消了该世纪法律的四项核心限制，则该合同将判定为 “是”。</p>
<h2>发生了什么</h2>
<p>白宫周三确认正在考虑对能源和农业运输实施临时琼斯法案豁免。</p>
<p>彭博社报道，政府正在制定一项为期 30 天的豁免，涵盖在美国港口之间运输的石油、汽油、柴油、液化天然气和肥料。</p>
<p>政府急于缓解国内燃料压力，正值布伦特原油价格短暂突破每桶 110 美元，霍尔木兹海峡在美国和以色列对伊朗的打击后实际上关闭。</p>
<h2>这为何重要</h2>
<p>瓦莱罗是 2021 年殖民管道网络攻击期间首个获得琼斯法案豁免的美国炼油商。该豁免允许外国船只将精炼产品从墨西哥湾沿岸运输到东海岸港口，正是现在正在考虑的更大范围的情景。</p>
<p>全面豁免将允许墨西哥湾沿岸的炼油商绕过国内船队，而国内船队已缩减至仅 92 艘合格船只，并可以聘用更便宜的外国油轮将燃料运输到东北部。</p>
<p>摩根大通在 2022 年估计，豁免该法律可能使东海岸的司机每加仑节省约 10 美分，彭博社报道。</p>
<p>对于瓦莱罗来说，豁免是一个潜在的双重催化剂。霍尔木兹危机已经推高了裂解价差，而更便宜的国内运输将降低将产品运送到需求最高市场的成本。</p>
<p>在失利的一方，琼斯法案豁免将使国内航运路线向更便宜的外国船舶竞争开放，威胁到像 <strong>柯比公司</strong> (NYSE: KEX) 和 <strong>马特森公司</strong> (NYSE: MATX) 这样的运营商的保护市场地位，他们在文件中将法律的废除列为主要风险因素。</p>
<p>参议员 <strong>迈克·李</strong>（R-犹他州）已提出立法，完全废除琼斯法案，为行政豁免之外增加了一条立法途径。</p>
<p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>

炼油公司指数 ETF - VanEck Vectors

SHPP

SUPL

<p>预测市场显示，特朗普政府在 6 月 30 日前放宽琼斯法案国内航运要求的可能性为 62%。这可能会使像瓦莱罗能源这样的墨 Gulf Coast 炼油厂受益，使它们能够使用更便宜的外国油轮进行燃料运输，可能为东海岸的司机节省约每加仑 10 美分的费用。然而，这对像卡比公司和马特森公司这样的企业构成威胁，因为它们可能面临更激烈的竞争。白宫正在考虑在由于地缘政治紧张局势导致燃料价格上涨的情况下，对能源和农业运输实施临时豁免</p>

<p>Prediction market traders are pricing a 62% probability that the Trump administration removes at least one Jones Act domestic shipping requirement by June 30, a move that could hand Gulf Coast refiners like <strong>Valero Energy Corporation</strong> (NYSE: VLO) a major logistics advantage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预测市场交易者预计特朗普政府在 6 月 30 日之前取消至少一项琼斯法案的国内航运要求的概率为 62%，这一举措可能会为 <strong>瓦莱罗能源公司</strong> (NYSE: VLO) 带来重大物流优势。</p>
</div><p>The Polymarket contract, which opened March 9, resolves to “Yes” if any of the century-old law’s four core restrictions are removed via legislation or executive action before the deadline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Polymarket 合同 于 3 月 9 日开放，如果在截止日期之前通过立法或行政行动取消了该世纪法律的四项核心限制，则该合同将判定为 “是”。</p>
</div><h2>What Happened</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>发生了什么</h2>
</div><p>The White House confirmed Wednesday it is considering a temporary Jones Act waiver for energy and agricultural shipments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>白宫周三确认正在考虑对能源和农业运输实施临时琼斯法案豁免。</p>
</div><p>Bloomberg reported the administration is developing a 30-day exemption covering oil, gasoline, diesel, LNG and fertilizer moving between U.S. ports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>彭博社报道，政府正在制定一项为期 30 天的豁免，涵盖在美国港口之间运输的石油、汽油、柴油、液化天然气和肥料。</p>
</div><p>The administration’s scramble to ease domestic fuel pressures comes as Brent crude briefly topped $110 per barrel with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政府急于缓解国内燃料压力，正值布伦特原油价格短暂突破每桶 110 美元，霍尔木兹海峡在美国和以色列对伊朗的打击后实际上关闭。</p>
</div><h2>Why It Matters</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这为何重要</h2>
</div><p>Valero was the first U.S. refiner granted a Jones Act exemption during the 2021 Colonial Pipeline cyberattack. That waiver allowed foreign vessels to ship refined products from the Gulf Coast to East Coast ports, exactly the scenario now under consideration at a broader scale.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瓦莱罗是 2021 年殖民管道网络攻击期间首个获得琼斯法案豁免的美国炼油商。该豁免允许外国船只将精炼产品从墨西哥湾沿岸运输到东海岸港口，正是现在正在考虑的更大范围的情景。</p>
</div><p>A blanket waiver would let Gulf Coast refiners bypass the domestic fleet, which has shrunk to just 92 qualifying vessels, and contract cheaper foreign tankers to move fuel to the Northeast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全面豁免将允许墨西哥湾沿岸的炼油商绕过国内船队，而国内船队已缩减至仅 92 艘合格船只，并可以聘用更便宜的外国油轮将燃料运输到东北部。</p>
</div><p>JPMorgan estimated in 2022 that waiving the law could save East Coast motorists roughly 10 cents a gallon, as reported by Bloomberg.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根大通在 2022 年估计，豁免该法律可能使东海岸的司机每加仑节省约 10 美分，彭博社报道。</p>
</div><p>For Valero, the waiver is a potential double catalyst. The Hormuz crisis is already inflating crack spreads, and cheaper domestic shipping would reduce the cost of getting product to the highest-demand markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于瓦莱罗来说，豁免是一个潜在的双重催化剂。霍尔木兹危机已经推高了裂解价差，而更便宜的国内运输将降低将产品运送到需求最高市场的成本。</p>
</div><p>On the losing side, a Jones Act waiver would open domestic shipping routes to cheaper foreign-flagged competition, threatening the protected market position of operators like <strong>Kirby Corporation</strong> (NYSE: KEX) and <strong>Matson Inc.</strong> (NYSE: MATX), which list repeal of the law as a primary risk factor in their filings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在失利的一方，琼斯法案豁免将使国内航运路线向更便宜的外国船舶竞争开放，威胁到像 <strong>柯比公司</strong> (NYSE: KEX) 和 <strong>马特森公司</strong> (NYSE: MATX) 这样的运营商的保护市场地位，他们在文件中将法律的废除列为主要风险因素。</p>
</div><p>Sen. <strong>Mike Lee</strong> (R-Utah) has introduced legislation to repeal the Jones Act entirely, adding a legislative track beyond the executive waiver.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>参议员 <strong>迈克·李</strong>（R-犹他州）已提出立法，完全废除琼斯法案，为行政豁免之外增加了一条立法途径。</p>
</div><p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

Trump Considers Jones Act Waiver By July: What Do Prediction Markets Say?

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Sonicshares Global Shipping ETF

瓦莱罗能源

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特朗普考虑在七月之前豁免琼斯法案：预测市场的看法是什么？