<p>TradingKey - 从市场表现的角度来看，特朗普的总统任期始终伴随着美国股市的强劲反弹。在他第一任期内，从 2017 年 1 月到 2021 年 1 月，道琼斯工业平均指数、标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克综合指数分别上涨了 57%、70% 和 142%；自他第二任期于 2025 年 1 月开始以来，这三大主要指数的累计涨幅为 14%-15%。</p>
<p>虽然大多数总统在任期内都能见证股市的上涨，但特朗普执政期间美国股票的年化回报在一个多世纪的历史中排名最高。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，这一牛市的催化剂既具有政策属性，也具有技术属性；特朗普政府的政策导向，加上人工智能和量子计算等前沿技术的突破，共同推动了股指屡创新高。</p>
<p>然而，美国股市的高估值压力和政治不确定性可能成为扰乱上涨势头的潜在变量。</p>
<p>关于美国股市在 2026 年是否会经历崩盘，目前没有明确的答案，但历史数据和当前信号为投资者提供了参考视角。</p>
<h2>美国股票创纪录高点的多重驱动因素</h2>
<p>推动美国股市的核心引擎之一是前沿技术（如人工智能和量子计算）革命所创造的巨大市场潜力。</p>
<p>普华永道预测，到 2030 年，人工智能将为全球经济创造 15.7 万亿美元的价值。人工智能技术的发展不仅直接推动了相关公司的估值飙升，还重塑了整个市场的增长预期，点燃了长期投资者的热情。</p>
<p>在微观层面，人工智能的商业化进程正在以惊人的速度推进，数据中心建设如火如荼，芯片巨头持续增加资本支出，人工智能初创公司不断获得巨额融资。</p>
<p>美联储数据显示，从 2025 年第二季度到第四季度，数据中心建设对美国 GDP 增长产生了显著的刺激作用，GDP 增长率在这段时间分别达到了 3.8%、4.4% 和 1.4%。</p>
<p>大型科技公司今年宣布了超过 6000 亿美元的云基础设施投资计划，几乎完全围绕人工智能需求展开；这直接推动了原材料、芯片、劳动力和电力等上下游行业的需求增长，成为推动美国经济和股市的关键力量。全球市值巨头如 NVIDIA 的强劲表现直接反映了这一人工智能革命。</p>
<p>美联储持续的宽松利率周期也为牛市提供了重要支持。尽管联邦公开市场委员会的利率决策独立于总统，但低利率环境确实刺激了企业借贷，鼓励公司增加招聘、并购投资和创新资本，从而推动盈利增长。这种宽松的货币政策环境为股市反弹创造了有利的流动性条件。</p>
<p>特朗普政府的政策举措也为股市反弹注入了直接动力。在他第一任期内推出的《减税与就业法案》将最高边际企业所得税率从 35% 永久性降低至 21%，这是自 1939 年以来的最低水平。</p>
<p>这一政策直接增加了企业的留存利润，推动标准普尔 500 公司季度股票回购大幅激增。标准普尔道琼斯指数预测，到 2025 年，标准普尔 500 公司的累计股票回购将超过 1 万亿美元。对于盈利稳定或增长的公司，回购可以有效提升每股收益（EPS），增强股票对价值投资者的吸引力。</p>
<p>然而，目前美国股市的人工智能热潮不可避免地让人联想到 1999 年的互联网泡沫。许多分析师警告投资者要对潜在的 “人工智能泡沫” 保持警惕。</p>
<p>历史教训表明，人工智能牛市可能面临类似风险；如果对人工智能数据中心的支出达到峰值后下降，将直接影响 GDP 增长、科技巨头的盈利表现和劳动力市场的活力，进而引发股市修正。</p>
<h2>Shiller 市盈率的警示</h2>
<p>虽然回测数据集和相关事件无法保证未来表现，但它们确实有助于消除情绪因素的影响，使投资者能够客观地看待股市。</p>
<p>一个经过 155 年历史回测验证的估值指标清晰地指向特朗普牛市的结束趋势：Shiller 市盈率（CAPE Ratio，或周期调整后市盈率）。</p>
<p>与传统市盈率（基于过去 12 个月每股收益）不同，Shiller 市盈率使用过去 10 年的平均通胀调整后收益。这种方法通过长期数据平滑了短期冲击和衰退对收益的影响，更准确地反映了市场的真实估值水平。</p>
<p>自 1871 年以来，Shiller 市盈率的历史均值为 17.34。尽管由于利率下降和互联网带来的信息透明度增加，该指标在过去 30 年中一直高于均值，但当前水平远远超出了合理范围。</p>
<p>在过去四个月中，它一直保持在 39 到 41 之间，这是历史上第二高的估值水平，仅次于互联网泡沫时期。历史数据显示，Shiller 市盈率超过 30 的情况在过去 155 年中仅发生过六次，之前的五次都伴随着三大指数的显著下跌。</p>
<h2>中期选举带来的市场风险</h2>
<p>除了估值压力，11 月即将举行的中期选举也成为市场的潜在风险因素。</p>
<p>在特朗普第二任期开始时，共和党在参议院和众议院均占据多数，但历史模式显示，现任总统所在政党通常在中期选举中失去国会席位。考虑到共和党在众议院的微弱多数，即使选举结果出现小幅波动，也可能导致国会分裂，从而显著降低特朗普在任期内推进重大立法的可能性。</p>
<p>卡森投资研究的首席市场策略师瑞安·德特里克在 X 上发布的数据表明，总统中期选举年份的股市调整通常比其他年份更大。</p>
<p>自 1950 年以来，标准普尔 500 指数在中期选举年份的平均回撤（从峰值到谷底）达到了 17.5%，接近熊市区域；在特朗普第一任期的中期选举中，标准普尔 500 指数几乎下降了 20%。</p>
<p>2026 年的独特之处在于，高估值和政治不确定性这两个重大风险首次同时出现。历史数据表明，当市场同时面临这两种因素时，通常会发生更显著的调整。</p>
<p>了解更多</p>

全球科技股指数 ETF - iShares

2 倍做多纳斯达克 100 指数 ETF - ProShares

<p>这篇文章讨论了特朗普总统任期内美国股市估值压力与政治周期的交织。文章强调了市场表现强劲，这主要得益于政策举措和技术进步，尤其是在人工智能领域。然而，对于高估值和政治不确定性的担忧可能会打断这种势头。Shiller 市盈率暗示牛市可能接近尾声，警告投资者面临类似于互联网泡沫的风险。文章强调了监测这些因素对未来市场表现的重要性</p>

<p>TradingKey - From a market performance perspective, Trump's presidential terms have consistently been accompanied by strong rallies in U.S. equities. During his first term from January 2017 to January 2021, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&amp;P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite rose by 57%, 70%, and 142%, respectively; since his second term began in January 2025, the three major indices have collectively recorded gains of 14%-15%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingKey - 从市场表现的角度来看，特朗普的总统任期始终伴随着美国股市的强劲反弹。在他第一任期内，从 2017 年 1 月到 2021 年 1 月，道琼斯工业平均指数、标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克综合指数分别上涨了 57%、70% 和 142%；自他第二任期于 2025 年 1 月开始以来，这三大主要指数的累计涨幅为 14%-15%。</p>
</div><p>While most presidents witness stock market gains during their tenures, the annualized returns of U.S. stocks during Trump's administration rank the highest among all presidents in over a century of history.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然大多数总统在任期内都能见证股市的上涨，但特朗普执政期间美国股票的年化回报在一个多世纪的历史中排名最高。</p>
</div><p>It is worth noting that the catalysts for this bull market possess both policy and technological attributes; the policy orientation of the Trump administration, combined with breakthroughs in frontier technologies such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing, have jointly driven stock indices to repeated record highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，这一牛市的催化剂既具有政策属性，也具有技术属性；特朗普政府的政策导向，加上人工智能和量子计算等前沿技术的突破，共同推动了股指屡创新高。</p>
</div><p>However, high valuation pressures in the U.S. stock market and political uncertainty could emerge as potential variables that disrupt the upward momentum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，美国股市的高估值压力和政治不确定性可能成为扰乱上涨势头的潜在变量。</p>
</div><p>There is no definitive answer as to whether the U.S. stock market will experience a crash in 2026, but historical data and current signals have provided a reference perspective for investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于美国股市在 2026 年是否会经历崩盘，目前没有明确的答案，但历史数据和当前信号为投资者提供了参考视角。</p>
</div><h2>Multiple Drivers Behind Record Highs in U.S. Stocks</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美国股票创纪录高点的多重驱动因素</h2>
</div><p>One of the core engines driving the U.S. stock market is the massive market potential created by the revolution in frontier technologies such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>推动美国股市的核心引擎之一是前沿技术（如人工智能和量子计算）革命所创造的巨大市场潜力。</p>
</div><p>PwC predicts that artificial intelligence will create $15.7 trillion in value for the global economy by 2030. The development of AI technology has not only directly fueled soaring valuations for related companies but has also reshaped growth expectations for the entire market, igniting long-term investor enthusiasm.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>普华永道预测，到 2030 年，人工智能将为全球经济创造 15.7 万亿美元的价值。人工智能技术的发展不仅直接推动了相关公司的估值飙升，还重塑了整个市场的增长预期，点燃了长期投资者的热情。</p>
</div><p>On a micro level, the commercialization of artificial intelligence is progressing at a staggering pace, with data center construction in full swing, chip giants continuing to increase capital expenditures, and AI startups consistently securing massive funding.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在微观层面，人工智能的商业化进程正在以惊人的速度推进，数据中心建设如火如荼，芯片巨头持续增加资本支出，人工智能初创公司不断获得巨额融资。</p>
</div><p>Federal Reserve data shows that from the second to the fourth quarter of 2025, data center construction had a significant stimulative effect on U.S. GDP growth, with GDP growth rates reaching 3.8%, 4.4%, and 1.4% during those periods, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储数据显示，从 2025 年第二季度到第四季度，数据中心建设对美国 GDP 增长产生了显著的刺激作用，GDP 增长率在这段时间分别达到了 3.8%、4.4% 和 1.4%。</p>
</div><p>Large technology companies have announced over $600 billion in cloud infrastructure investment plans this year, almost entirely centered on AI demand; this has directly driven demand growth in upstream and downstream industries such as raw materials, chips, labor, and electricity, becoming a key force driving the U.S. economy and stock market. The strong performance of global market-cap giants like NVIDIA is a direct reflection of this AI revolution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大型科技公司今年宣布了超过 6000 亿美元的云基础设施投资计划，几乎完全围绕人工智能需求展开；这直接推动了原材料、芯片、劳动力和电力等上下游行业的需求增长，成为推动美国经济和股市的关键力量。全球市值巨头如 NVIDIA 的强劲表现直接反映了这一人工智能革命。</p>
</div><p>The Federal Reserve's sustained cycle of loose interest rates has also provided significant support for the bull market. Although the FOMC's interest rate decisions are independent of the President, a low-interest-rate environment does stimulate corporate borrowing, encouraging companies to increase hiring, M&amp;A investment, and innovation capital, thereby driving earnings growth. This accommodative monetary policy environment has created favorable liquidity conditions for the stock market rally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储持续的宽松利率周期也为牛市提供了重要支持。尽管联邦公开市场委员会的利率决策独立于总统，但低利率环境确实刺激了企业借贷，鼓励公司增加招聘、并购投资和创新资本，从而推动盈利增长。这种宽松的货币政策环境为股市反弹创造了有利的流动性条件。</p>
</div><p>Policy initiatives by the Trump administration have also injected direct momentum into the stock market rally. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, introduced during his first term, permanently reduced the top marginal corporate income tax rate from 35% to 21%, the lowest level since 1939.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普政府的政策举措也为股市反弹注入了直接动力。在他第一任期内推出的《减税与就业法案》将最高边际企业所得税率从 35% 永久性降低至 21%，这是自 1939 年以来的最低水平。</p>
</div><p>This policy directly increased retained profits for corporations, driving a significant surge in quarterly share buybacks among S&amp;P 500 companies. S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices predicts that cumulative share buybacks by S&amp;P 500 companies will exceed $1 trillion by 2025. For companies with stable or growing earnings, buybacks can effectively boost earnings per share (EPS), enhancing the stock's appeal to value investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一政策直接增加了企业的留存利润，推动标准普尔 500 公司季度股票回购大幅激增。标准普尔道琼斯指数预测，到 2025 年，标准普尔 500 公司的累计股票回购将超过 1 万亿美元。对于盈利稳定或增长的公司，回购可以有效提升每股收益（EPS），增强股票对价值投资者的吸引力。</p>
</div><p>However, the current AI fever in U.S. stocks inevitably brings to mind the dot-com bubble of 1999. Many analysts are warning investors to remain vigilant against a potential &#34;AI bubble.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，目前美国股市的人工智能热潮不可避免地让人联想到 1999 年的互联网泡沫。许多分析师警告投资者要对潜在的 “人工智能泡沫” 保持警惕。</p>
</div><p>Historical lessons suggest that an AI bull market could face similar risks; if spending on AI data centers hits a peak and then declines, it will directly impact GDP growth, the earnings performance of tech giants, and labor market vitality, subsequently triggering a stock market correction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史教训表明，人工智能牛市可能面临类似风险；如果对人工智能数据中心的支出达到峰值后下降，将直接影响 GDP 增长、科技巨头的盈利表现和劳动力市场的活力，进而引发股市修正。</p>
</div><h2>The Warning of the Shiller PE Ratio</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Shiller 市盈率的警示</h2>
</div><p>While backtesting datasets and related events cannot guarantee future performance, they do help eliminate the influence of emotional factors, allowing investors to view the stock market objectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然回测数据集和相关事件无法保证未来表现，但它们确实有助于消除情绪因素的影响，使投资者能够客观地看待股市。</p>
</div><p>A valuation metric validated by 155 years of historical backtesting clearly points to an ending trend for the Trump bull market: the Shiller PE Ratio (CAPE Ratio, or Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings Ratio).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个经过 155 年历史回测验证的估值指标清晰地指向特朗普牛市的结束趋势：Shiller 市盈率（CAPE Ratio，或周期调整后市盈率）。</p>
</div><p>Unlike the traditional PE ratio (based on the trailing 12-month earnings per share), the Shiller PE ratio uses average inflation-adjusted earnings from the past 10 years. This method smoothes the impact of short-term shocks and recessions on earnings through long-term data, more accurately reflecting the market's true valuation level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与传统市盈率（基于过去 12 个月每股收益）不同，Shiller 市盈率使用过去 10 年的平均通胀调整后收益。这种方法通过长期数据平滑了短期冲击和衰退对收益的影响，更准确地反映了市场的真实估值水平。</p>
</div><p>Since 1871, the historical mean of the Shiller PE ratio has been 17.34. Although the metric has remained above the mean for the past 30 years due to declining interest rates and increased information transparency brought by the internet, the current level has far exceeded a reasonable range.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 1871 年以来，Shiller 市盈率的历史均值为 17.34。尽管由于利率下降和互联网带来的信息透明度增加，该指标在过去 30 年中一直高于均值，但当前水平远远超出了合理范围。</p>
</div><p>For the past four months, it has remained between 39 and 41, the second-highest valuation level in history, trailing only the dot-com bubble era. Historical data shows that instances where the Shiller PE ratio exceeded 30 have occurred only six times in the past 155 years, and the previous five occurrences were all accompanied by significant declines in the three major indices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去四个月中，它一直保持在 39 到 41 之间，这是历史上第二高的估值水平，仅次于互联网泡沫时期。历史数据显示，Shiller 市盈率超过 30 的情况在过去 155 年中仅发生过六次，之前的五次都伴随着三大指数的显著下跌。</p>
</div><h2>Market Risks Posed by the Midterm Elections</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>中期选举带来的市场风险</h2>
</div><p>In addition to valuation pressures, the upcoming midterm elections in November have also become a potential risk factor for the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了估值压力，11 月即将举行的中期选举也成为市场的潜在风险因素。</p>
</div><p>At the start of Trump's second term, the Republican Party held majorities in both the Senate and the House, but historical patterns show that the incumbent president's party typically loses congressional seats in the midterm elections. Given the Republicans' slim majority in the House, even small shifts in election results could lead to a divided Congress, significantly reducing the likelihood of Trump advancing major legislation during the remainder of his term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在特朗普第二任期开始时，共和党在参议院和众议院均占据多数，但历史模式显示，现任总统所在政党通常在中期选举中失去国会席位。考虑到共和党在众议院的微弱多数，即使选举结果出现小幅波动，也可能导致国会分裂，从而显著降低特朗普在任期内推进重大立法的可能性。</p>
</div><p>Data released on X by Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Investment Research, shows that stock market corrections in presidential midterm election years are typically larger than in other years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>卡森投资研究的首席市场策略师瑞安·德特里克在 X 上发布的数据表明，总统中期选举年份的股市调整通常比其他年份更大。</p>
</div><p>Since 1950, the average drawdown (peak-to-trough) for the S&amp;P 500 in midterm election years has reached 17.5%, nearing bear market territory; during the midterm elections of Trump's first term, the S&amp;P 500 experienced a decline of nearly 20%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 1950 年以来，标准普尔 500 指数在中期选举年份的平均回撤（从峰值到谷底）达到了 17.5%，接近熊市区域；在特朗普第一任期的中期选举中，标准普尔 500 指数几乎下降了 20%。</p>
</div><p>The uniqueness of 2026 lies in the fact that two major risks—high valuations and political uncertainty—are appearing simultaneously for the first time. Historical data indicates that when the market faces both factors at once, more significant corrections typically occur.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2026 年的独特之处在于，高估值和政治不确定性这两个重大风险首次同时出现。历史数据表明，当市场同时面临这两种因素时，通常会发生更显著的调整。</p>
</div><p>Find out more</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>了解更多</p>
</div>

Valuation Pressures and Political Cycles Intertwined: Is the Trump-Era US Stock Bull Market Really Ending?

- 特朗普执政期间，美国股市持续强劲反弹，标普 500 指数上涨约 70%。  
- 人工智能等前沿技术推动股市上涨，但高估值和政治不确定性可能引发风险。  
- 2026 年的中期选举可能导致市场更大调整，历史数据表明，此时股市通常表现不佳。

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纳斯达克 100 指数 ETF - Invesco

道琼斯指数

Global X 机器人工智能ETF

纳指 100 ETF - Invesco

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3 倍做多纳指 ETF - ProShares

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估值压力与政治周期交织：特朗普时代的美国股市牛市是否真的结束了？