<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/kbDhIh8pgxpMz.BX2J5mbQ--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD04Mjg-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/bb46c9a653442f4bd53bd26445d903c2?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/kbDhIh8pgxpMz.BX2J5mbQ--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD04Mjg-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/bb46c9a653442f4bd53bd26445d903c2"/></p>
<p>自战争开始以来，德黑兰遭受了多次袭击（ATTA KENARE）</p>
<p>美以空袭杀死了伊朗领导人，但并未推翻政府，而现在，伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡的高地上，将整个世界经济置于战争的前线。</p>
<p>美国在杀死最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊的初步胜利，已演变为华盛顿无法完全控制的冲突，严重限制了特朗普总统的选择。</p>
<p>在一场血腥的空战进行两周后，伊朗掌握了许多主动权，因为它扼制了全球的石油供应，并袭击了美国在中东的盟友，包括那些多年来将声誉寄托于政治和经济稳定的海湾国家。</p>
<p>这与 4 月 28 日早些时候的情况形成了鲜明对比，当时第一缕黑烟在德黑兰上空升起。</p>
<p>在伊朗首都一个住宅区的残骸中，哈梅内伊和数十名高级官员在经过多年间谍活动和策划的袭击中被杀。</p>
<p>政府已被斩首。</p>
<p>然而——美国教授罗伯特·佩普在其著作《胜利的轰炸》中写道，这种策略在国家与国家的战争中 “从未有效”。</p>
<p>而伊朗本身对历史并不陌生。</p>
<p>“我们有二十年的时间来研究美国军队在我们东部和西部的失败，” 伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉赫奇最近表示。</p>
<p>“我们已经相应地吸取了教训。”</p>
<p>政府迅速任命了一位新的最高领袖，而其分散的 “马赛克防御” 使军方能够在不失去太多步伐的情况下进行报复。</p>
<p>这一军事理论是在 2005 年发展起来的，当时美国推翻了伊拉克和阿富汗的政府，法国国际关系研究所（IFRI）的研究员埃利·特嫩鲍姆表示。</p>
<p>这旨在帮助一个分散的军事指挥部避免高层领导的重大损失，国际危机组织伊朗项目主任阿里·瓦兹表示，“尽管失去了一些非常高级的领导人，但政权似乎仍然相当完整。”</p>
<p>这使得德黑兰能够推出 “三部分战略”，瓦兹说：“首先，确保生存。其次，保持足够的报复能力以继续战斗。第三是延长冲突”，以便 “你可以在自己的条件下结束它。”</p>
<p>这一切都为特朗普带来了麻烦，因为战争将美国盟友卷入其中，并推高了国内外的生活成本。</p>
<p>- 全球影响 -</p>
<p>凭借其导弹和大量相对便宜的无人机，伊朗袭击了迪拜的一个码头和海上的油轮，将战争扩展到美国在海湾、土耳其、塞浦路斯等地的盟友。</p>
<p>与此同时，在黎巴嫩，伊朗支持的武装组织真主党与以色列进行导弹交火，伊朗军队几乎封闭了霍尔木兹海峡，这是一条通常承载全球五分之一原油运输的重要通道。</p>
<p>从美国到孟加拉国再到尼日利亚，油价和汽油价格飙升或引发配给。</p>
<p>航空交通减缓，外国人纷纷逃离海湾，海湾的商业友好稳定形象受到严重打击。</p>
<p>全球的石油进口国释放了约 4 亿桶战略燃料储备，尽管这几乎没有缓解痛苦。</p>
<p>在肯尼亚，茶叶销售商看到库存积压未售，因为海上贸易线路受到压力，航运保险费用飙升。</p>
<p>孟加拉国已实施燃料配给，并部署军队以防止动乱。</p>
<p>“我们知道这将打开一个混乱的潘多拉盒子，” 海湾国际论坛的阿齐兹·阿尔加希安，一位沙特分析师说。</p>
<p>他还表示，海湾国家对与伊朗进行 “如此多投资” 的外交感到 “愤怒”。</p>
<p>- 错误的自信？ -</p>
<p>全球影响引发了对华盛顿战略的质疑。</p>
<p>特朗普呼吁伊朗 “无条件投降”，而国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯表示，行动的目标 “聚焦明确”，而政府则回避关于战争模糊不清、不断变化的目标的问题。</p>
<p>“我们对伊朗的作战优势与对伊朗的战略理解之间存在明显差异，” 以色列国家安全研究所的高级研究员丹尼·西特里诺维茨表示。“我们知道每个人（在哪里），以及我们可以打击他们的地方。”</p>
<p>加拿大拉瓦尔大学的政治学教授乔纳森·帕金告诉法新社：“美国政府无疑在相信自己掌握所有牌时过于自负。”</p>
<p>帕金指出，华盛顿有理由找到一种方式来确保这样的自信：年初，美国的一次行动推翻了委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗的政府。</p>
<p>与此同时，伊朗政府在美国制裁下苦苦挣扎，并在 12 月和 1 月经历了大规模示威，导致安全镇压，造成数千人死亡。</p>
<p>- 美国选举，伊朗叛逃 -</p>
<p>然而在短期内，德黑兰仍有许多压力点可以通过石油和航运威胁进行打击，包括通过也门的胡塞叛军，他们之前通过导弹袭击扰乱了红海的航运。</p>
<p>危机组织的瓦兹表示，伊朗正在 “劫持全球经济”，作为 “对特朗普施加压力” 的手段。</p>
<p>与此同时，针对美国盟友的伊朗导弹正在消耗美国的拦截器，包括昂贵的爱国者和 THAAD 系统。</p>
<p>而在国内，特朗普——在没有寻求公众支持的情况下下令进行突袭——正面临即将到来的国会选举。</p>
<p>随着对价格敏感的选民准备投票，“共和党代表和参议员们肯定会打电话给白宫，表示他们面临失去自己选区的风险，” 政治学教授帕金说。</p>
<p>并不是说伊朗在战争中面临自身政治、军事和经济动荡的情况下没有长期困难。</p>
<p>&#34;我认为最可能的情景是一个僵尸国家，&#34; IFRI 研究员克莱门特·特梅表示——一个维持其安全机构但在收入征收或石油出口等职能上挣扎的政府。</p>
<p>&#34;他们这个月已经在支付公共工资方面苦苦挣扎，&#34; 他指出。</p>
<p>确保安全部队的忠诚也不是理所当然的：他补充说，在一月份对抗议者的大屠杀中，警方有显著的叛逃现象。</p>
<p>特朗普呼吁的民众起义以取代政府，似乎还遥遥无期——尽管特梅指出，&#34;现在判断战争对未来抗议的影响还为时尚早。&#34;</p>
<p>- 没有出路？ -</p>
<p>在没有简单出路的情况下，特朗普可能会&#34;修订胜利的概念，搁置投降或政权更迭的前景，&#34; 并声称伊朗人应该自己起来反抗，帕奎恩说。</p>
<p>但尽管特朗普可能想要以杀死哈梅内伊和削弱伊朗军队的成就离开，&#34;伊朗可能不会给他这样的退路，&#34; 大西洋理事会的内特·斯旺森说。</p>
<p>剩下的选项似乎越来越血腥。</p>
<p>即使在美国放下武器后，伊朗也可能继续敌对行动。</p>
<p>或者，特朗普&#34;加倍下注。我们在地面上部署某种形式的部队，&#34; 无论是进行特种作战还是长期作战。</p>
<p>斯旺森担心的最后一种可能性是，战争被华盛顿和以色列外包给武装伊朗反对派的民族冲突。</p>
<p>目前，导弹仍在不断降落，既在伊朗境内，也越来越远。</p>
<p>fz/dab/nro/pdw</p>

山东黄金

紫金矿业

中金黄金

<p>美国与伊朗之间的持续冲突在美国和以色列的袭击导致伊朗最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊被杀后升级。尽管这一初步胜利，伊朗政府依然保持完整，利用去中心化的军事战略维持报复能力。这场战争扰乱了全球石油供应，导致价格飙升和全球经济不稳定。随着冲突吸引美国盟友并增加生活成本，关于华盛顿战略的有效性及其对伊朗韧性的理解的问题浮出水面</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/kbDhIh8pgxpMz.BX2J5mbQ--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD04Mjg-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/bb46c9a653442f4bd53bd26445d903c2" alt="" original-src="https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/kbDhIh8pgxpMz.BX2J5mbQ--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD04Mjg-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/bb46c9a653442f4bd53bd26445d903c2"/></p>
<p>Tehran has been hit by multiple strikes since the war began (ATTA KENARE)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自战争开始以来，德黑兰遭受了多次袭击（ATTA KENARE）</p>
</div><p>US-Israeli strikes killed Iran's leader but have not toppled the government, which now, from its perch on the Strait of Hormuz, has put the entire world economy on the war's frontlines.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美以空袭杀死了伊朗领导人，但并未推翻政府，而现在，伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡的高地上，将整个世界经济置于战争的前线。</p>
</div><p>The initial US victory in killing supreme leader Ali Khamenei has given way to a conflict that Washington cannot completely control, sharply limiting President Donald Trump's options.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国在杀死最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊的初步胜利，已演变为华盛顿无法完全控制的冲突，严重限制了特朗普总统的选择。</p>
</div><p>Two weeks into a bloody air war, Iran holds many cards as it chokes the world's oil supply and strikes US allies in the Middle East, including Gulf states who had for years staked their reputations on political and economic stability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在一场血腥的空战进行两周后，伊朗掌握了许多主动权，因为它扼制了全球的石油供应，并袭击了美国在中东的盟友，包括那些多年来将声誉寄托于政治和经济稳定的海湾国家。</p>
</div><p>It makes for a drastic turn from the early hours of April 28, when the first clouds of black smoke rose over Tehran.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这与 4 月 28 日早些时候的情况形成了鲜明对比，当时第一缕黑烟在德黑兰上空升起。</p>
</div><p>Amid smouldering ruins of a housing complex in the Iranian capital were Khamenei and dozens of top-ranking officials, killed in strikes that took years of espionage and planning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在伊朗首都一个住宅区的残骸中，哈梅内伊和数十名高级官员在经过多年间谍活动和策划的袭击中被杀。</p>
</div><p>The government had been decapitated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政府已被斩首。</p>
</div><p>And yet -- such strategies have &#34;never been effective&#34; in state-versus-state warfare, writes American professor Robert Pape in his book &#34;Bombing to Win&#34;, a study of military air campaigns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而——美国教授罗伯特·佩普在其著作《胜利的轰炸》中写道，这种策略在国家与国家的战争中 “从未有效”。</p>
</div><p>And Iran itself is no stranger to history.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而伊朗本身对历史并不陌生。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We've had two decades to study defeats of the US military to our immediate east and west,&#34; Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said recently.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们有二十年的时间来研究美国军队在我们东部和西部的失败，” 伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉赫奇最近表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We've incorporated lessons accordingly.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们已经相应地吸取了教训。”</p>
</div><p>The government quickly put in place a new supreme leader, while its decentralised &#34;mosaic defence&#34; allowed the military to retaliate without losing much of a step.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政府迅速任命了一位新的最高领袖，而其分散的 “马赛克防御” 使军方能够在不失去太多步伐的情况下进行报复。</p>
</div><p>The military doctrine was developed in 2005, after the United States toppled the governments of Iraq and Afghanistan, French researcher Elie Tenenbaum, of the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI), said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一军事理论是在 2005 年发展起来的，当时美国推翻了伊拉克和阿富汗的政府，法国国际关系研究所（IFRI）的研究员埃利·特嫩鲍姆表示。</p>
</div><p>It was meant to help a decentralised military command evade a debilitating loss of top leadership, and &#34;the regime seems pretty intact, despite the fact that it has lost some very senior leaders,&#34; said Ali Vaez, Iran project director at International Crisis Group.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这旨在帮助一个分散的军事指挥部避免高层领导的重大损失，国际危机组织伊朗项目主任阿里·瓦兹表示，“尽管失去了一些非常高级的领导人，但政权似乎仍然相当完整。”</p>
</div><p>That allows Tehran to roll out a &#34;three-part strategy,&#34; Vaez said: &#34;First, ensure survival. Second, keep enough retaliatory capacity to be able to stay in the fight. And then third was to prolong the conflict&#34; so that &#34;you can end it on your terms.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这使得德黑兰能够推出 “三部分战略”，瓦兹说：“首先，确保生存。其次，保持足够的报复能力以继续战斗。第三是延长冲突”，以便 “你可以在自己的条件下结束它。”</p>
</div><p>All of which spells trouble for Trump as the war draws in US allies and drives up the cost of living at home and abroad.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一切都为特朗普带来了麻烦，因为战争将美国盟友卷入其中，并推高了国内外的生活成本。</p>
</div><p>- Worldwide fallout -</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>- 全球影响 -</p>
</div><p>With its missiles and a vast supply of relatively cheap drones, Iran has struck a marina in Dubai and oil tankers at sea, expanding the war to US allies in the Gulf, Turkey, Cyprus and and elsewhere.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>凭借其导弹和大量相对便宜的无人机，伊朗袭击了迪拜的一个码头和海上的油轮，将战争扩展到美国在海湾、土耳其、塞浦路斯等地的盟友。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile in Lebanon the Iran-backed armed group Hezbollah is trading missile fire with Israel, and Iranian forces have all but closed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery that normally hosts a fifth of the world's crude oil traffic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，在黎巴嫩，伊朗支持的武装组织真主党与以色列进行导弹交火，伊朗军队几乎封闭了霍尔木兹海峡，这是一条通常承载全球五分之一原油运输的重要通道。</p>
</div><p>Oil and petrol prices have spiked or sparked rationing in countries from the United States to Bangladesh to Nigeria.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从美国到孟加拉国再到尼日利亚，油价和汽油价格飙升或引发配给。</p>
</div><p>Air traffic has slowed and foreigners are fleeing the Gulf, whose image of business-friendly stability has taken a huge hit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>航空交通减缓，外国人纷纷逃离海湾，海湾的商业友好稳定形象受到严重打击。</p>
</div><p>Oil importing countries around the world have released some 400 million barrels of strategic fuel reserves, though it has hardly eased the pain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球的石油进口国释放了约 4 亿桶战略燃料储备，尽管这几乎没有缓解痛苦。</p>
</div><p>In Kenya, tea sellers are watching stocks pile up unsold as maritime trade lines come under pressure and shipping insurance spikes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在肯尼亚，茶叶销售商看到库存积压未售，因为海上贸易线路受到压力，航运保险费用飙升。</p>
</div><p>Bangladesh has rationed fuel and deployed the military to ward off unrest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>孟加拉国已实施燃料配给，并部署军队以防止动乱。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We knew that this will open up a Pandora's box of chaos,&#34; said the Gulf International Forum's Aziz Alghashian, a Saudi analyst.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们知道这将打开一个混乱的潘多拉盒子，” 海湾国际论坛的阿齐兹·阿尔加希安，一位沙特分析师说。</p>
</div><p>He also said there was &#34;anger&#34; among Gulf states that had put &#34;so much investment in&#34; diplomacy with Iran.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他还表示，海湾国家对与伊朗进行 “如此多投资” 的外交感到 “愤怒”。</p>
</div><p>- False confidence? -</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>- 错误的自信？ -</p>
</div><p>The worldwide fallout has sparked questions over Washington's strategy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球影响引发了对华盛顿战略的质疑。</p>
</div><p>Trump has called for Iran's &#34;unconditional surrender,&#34; while Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has said the operation's goals are &#34;laser focused,&#34; as the administration dodges questions over the war's ill-defined, shifting objectives.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普呼吁伊朗 “无条件投降”，而国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯表示，行动的目标 “聚焦明确”，而政府则回避关于战争模糊不清、不断变化的目标的问题。</p>
</div><p>&#34;There is a stark difference between the operational superiority that we have over Iran -- we know where everyone (is) and where we can hit them -- and the strategic understanding of Iran,&#34; said Danny Citrinowicz, a senior fellow at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们对伊朗的作战优势与对伊朗的战略理解之间存在明显差异，” 以色列国家安全研究所的高级研究员丹尼·西特里诺维茨表示。“我们知道每个人（在哪里），以及我们可以打击他们的地方。”</p>
</div><p>Jonathan Paquin, a political science professor at Canada's Universite Laval, told AFP: &#34;The American administration was undoubtedly presumptuous in believing it held all the cards.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加拿大拉瓦尔大学的政治学教授乔纳森·帕金告诉法新社：“美国政府无疑在相信自己掌握所有牌时过于自负。”</p>
</div><p>There were reasons Washington could find a way to assure itself of such confidence, Paquin noted: a US operation toppled the Venezuelan government of Nicolas Maduro at the beginning of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>帕金指出，华盛顿有理由找到一种方式来确保这样的自信：年初，美国的一次行动推翻了委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗的政府。</p>
</div><p>The government in Iran, meanwhile, has been struggling through US sanctions, and was shaken by major demonstrations in December and January, sparking a security crackdown that killed thousands.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，伊朗政府在美国制裁下苦苦挣扎，并在 12 月和 1 月经历了大规模示威，导致安全镇压，造成数千人死亡。</p>
</div><p>- US elections, Iranian defections -</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>- 美国选举，伊朗叛逃 -</p>
</div><p>Yet in the short term, Tehran still has plenty of pressure points it can hit via oil and shipping threats, including via Yemen's Huthi rebels, who previously disrupted shipping through the Red Sea with their own missile attacks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而在短期内，德黑兰仍有许多压力点可以通过石油和航运威胁进行打击，包括通过也门的胡塞叛军，他们之前通过导弹袭击扰乱了红海的航运。</p>
</div><p>Iran is taking &#34;the global economy hostage&#34; as a means of &#34;putting pressure on Trump,&#34; said Crisis Group's Vaez.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>危机组织的瓦兹表示，伊朗正在 “劫持全球经济”，作为 “对特朗普施加压力” 的手段。</p>
</div><p>All the while, Iranian missiles launched at US allies are eating up American interceptors, including expensive Patriot and THAAD systems.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，针对美国盟友的伊朗导弹正在消耗美国的拦截器，包括昂贵的爱国者和 THAAD 系统。</p>
</div><p>And domestically, Trump -- who ordered the surprise strikes without seeking public support for a war -- is facing upcoming congressional elections.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而在国内，特朗普——在没有寻求公众支持的情况下下令进行突袭——正面临即将到来的国会选举。</p>
</div><p>As price-sensitive voters prepare to head to the polls, &#34;certainly Republican representatives and senators calling the White House to say they risk losing their districts,&#34; said Paquin, the political science professor.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着对价格敏感的选民准备投票，“共和党代表和参议员们肯定会打电话给白宫，表示他们面临失去自己选区的风险，” 政治学教授帕金说。</p>
</div><p>Not that Iran -- facing its own political, military and economic upheaval from the war -- is without its own long-term difficulties.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>并不是说伊朗在战争中面临自身政治、军事和经济动荡的情况下没有长期困难。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I think the most likely scenario is that of a zombie state,&#34; said IFRI researcher Clement Therme -- a government that maintains its security apparatus but struggles to fulfil functions such as revenue collection or oil exportation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;我认为最可能的情景是一个僵尸国家，&#34; IFRI 研究员克莱门特·特梅表示——一个维持其安全机构但在收入征收或石油出口等职能上挣扎的政府。</p>
</div><p>&#34;They are already struggling to pay public salaries this month,&#34; he noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;他们这个月已经在支付公共工资方面苦苦挣扎，&#34; 他指出。</p>
</div><p>Even ensuring the loyalty of the security forces isn't a given: there were notable defections by police during the January massacres of protesters, he added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>确保安全部队的忠诚也不是理所当然的：他补充说，在一月份对抗议者的大屠杀中，警方有显著的叛逃现象。</p>
</div><p>The popular uprising called for by Trump to replace the government amid the bombardment seems a far way off -- though Therme noted &#34;it's still too early to judge&#34; the effects of the war on potential protests down the line.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普呼吁的民众起义以取代政府，似乎还遥遥无期——尽管特梅指出，&#34;现在判断战争对未来抗议的影响还为时尚早。&#34;</p>
</div><p>- No exit? -</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>- 没有出路？ -</p>
</div><p>With no easy exit, Trump is likely to &#34;revise the concept of victory, setting aside the prospect of surrender or regime change&#34; and claiming that the Iranian should rise up on their own, said Paquin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在没有简单出路的情况下，特朗普可能会&#34;修订胜利的概念，搁置投降或政权更迭的前景，&#34; 并声称伊朗人应该自己起来反抗，帕奎恩说。</p>
</div><p>But while Trump might want to walk away boasting of killing Khamenei and degrading the Iranian military, &#34;Iran might not give him that off-ramp,&#34; said Nate Swanson, of the Atlantic Council.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但尽管特朗普可能想要以杀死哈梅内伊和削弱伊朗军队的成就离开，&#34;伊朗可能不会给他这样的退路，&#34; 大西洋理事会的内特·斯旺森说。</p>
</div><p>The remaining options seem increasingly bloody.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>剩下的选项似乎越来越血腥。</p>
</div><p>Iran could keep up the hostilities even after the United States lays down its arms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在美国放下武器后，伊朗也可能继续敌对行动。</p>
</div><p>Or, Trump &#34;doubles down. We put some form of troops on the ground,&#34; whether for special operations or long-term fighting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>或者，特朗普&#34;加倍下注。我们在地面上部署某种形式的部队，&#34; 无论是进行特种作战还是长期作战。</p>
</div><p>The last possibility, worried Swanson, is that the war is &#34;outsourced into an ethnic conflict&#34; by Washington and Israel arming Iranian opposition groups.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>斯旺森担心的最后一种可能性是，战争被华盛顿和以色列外包给武装伊朗反对派的民族冲突。</p>
</div><p>For now, the missiles continue to rain down, inside Iran and increasingly further afield.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，导弹仍在不断降落，既在伊朗境内，也越来越远。</p>
</div><p>fz/dab/nro/pdw</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>fz/dab/nro/pdw</p>
</div>

随着美国与伊朗的战争持续，美国几乎没有简单的解决途径