<p>TradingKey - 在 2025 年，金属市场经历了重大转变，并在过去三十年的表现中取得了最佳表现之一，基本金属和贵金属的价格均有所上涨，为 2026 年奠定了基础。</p>
<p>黄金（XAUUSD）和白银（XAGUSD）的价格在今年再次创下历史新高，但价格图表上所经历的动能开始变得比以往更为广泛，因此现在的问题是，为什么主导的多头/机构投资者从投资金条转向投资铜；这对 2026 年未来铜价意味着什么？</p>
<h2>从黄金和白银的强势到铜的机会</h2>
<p>在 2023 年至 2026 年期间，由于全球持续高水平的通货膨胀、地缘政治紧张局势上升以及对避险资产的强劲需求（许多主要的财务规划师和投资公司对黄金的中期前景持乐观态度），黄金一直保持在或接近历史高位。</p>
<p>白银的表现大幅超越了黄金，进入了一个新的牛市周期，在最近的 12 个月中创下了历史新高，并且自 2025 年初的低点以来上涨了超过 100%，进一步巩固了其作为避险资产和在工业应用中（特别是在可再生能源和电子产品中的使用）的双重角色。</p>
<p>由于黄金和白银的估值不断上升，寻找具有强大结构性供需动态的资产促使机构投资者将其配置从黄金和白银转向铜；这种转变反映了资本市场动能的扩大以及对周期性扩张的需求，除了在各自投资组合中的防御性配置。</p>
<h2>铜博士成为战略资产</h2>
<p>铜的长期需求受到能源转型为可再生能源和新数字基础设施建设的支持和推动。</p>
<p>铜在电网、智能分配和电动车中将继续不可替代。随着电动车的广泛采用，需求将成倍增加，因为电动车所需的铜远远超过内燃机车辆。</p>
<p>此外，技术支出的增加将推动需求，因为数据中心和人工智能（AI）基础设施需要铜来满足其高密度布线、高效冷却系统和可靠的电力传输。</p>
<p>这些趋势的结合将使铜博士从一般工业活动的指标转变为推动未来增长的关键战略资源。</p>
<h2>供应短缺收紧铜价展望</h2>
<p>2026 年的展望表明，全球常用铜将出现 33 万吨的短缺。预计 2026 年常用铜的平均价格约为 12,075 美元/吨，最高可达 12,500 美元，出现在 2026 年第二季度。</p>
<p>正如之前提到的，花旗集团（C）的估计显示，如果供应受到限制且库存持续低位，那么我们可能会在 2026 年看到铜价超过 13,000 美元或接近 15,000 美元/吨。</p>
<p>这基于许多大型铜矿正在经历生产延迟和中断的事实，而对新矿的投资未能跟上铜需求的增长。</p>
<p>因此，由于铜库存较低，任何生产短缺都可能对铜价产生直接影响。</p>
<h2>机构轮换与生产商杠杆</h2>
<p>资本市场的信号表明，大型投资者开始改变其黄金/白银的配置，转向基本金属（铜），并将铜视为不仅仅是工业商品，而是作为结构性增长的可投资途径。</p>
<p>这种对铜的投资者配置持续变化，增加了投资者对主要铜矿公司的兴趣，包括自由港迈克墨伦，铜价的上涨和积极的股价表现反映了投资者对铜的信心增加，以及生产商在供应受限情况下的潜在盈利杠杆。</p>
<h2>2026 年铜价预测</h2>
<p>根据摩根大通（JPM）和花旗集团的预测，到 2026 年，铜应被视为一种战略重要资产。</p>
<p>分析师预测铜价将在每公吨 11,000 至 14,000 美元之间，但一些分析师预计由于对技术的需求增加，价格可能会更高。</p>
<p>铜的短期展望良好，但由于近期价格上涨的很大一部分是由于投机，可能会在 2022 年晚些时候出现价格整合。</p>
<p>铜价的展望在很大程度上依赖于中国（全球最大的铜消费国），如果中国政府的刺激支出低于预期，将对铜的需求产生重大影响。</p>
<h2>结论</h2>
<p>在 2025-2026 年期间，金属市场也将经历重大转变。</p>
<p>黄金和白银都享有各自的避险属性和工业基础，但现在，铜在促进清洁能源生产中的关键作用以及与数字经济的联系将使其成为机构投资者眼中具有战略价值的资产。</p>
<p>到 2026 年，铜将成为投资者讨论的关键话题，因为供需平衡的极度紧张，以及越来越多的高科技应用利用铜。</p>
<p>而且，机构投资者的投资组合大规模重新配置，所有这些都在推动当前价格波动以及预期的价格上涨，将为跟随铜价预测的投资者创造良好的利润潜力和风险暴露。</p>
<p>了解更多</p>

江西铜业

COPJ

自由港迈克墨伦铜金矿

南方铜业

铜矿 ETF - GlobalX

COPP

<p>在 2025 年，金属市场经历了显著增长，导致机构投资从黄金和白银转向铜。这一变化是由于铜在可再生能源和技术中的重要作用，预计到 2026 年将出现 33 万吨的短缺。分析师预测，铜价可能在每公吨 11,000 美元到 14,000 美元之间波动，受中国需求和供应限制的影响。这一转变突显了铜在不断变化的市场格局中作为战略资产的新兴地位</p>

<p>TradingKey - In 2025, the Metals Market experienced a major shift and had one of its best runs in thirty years of performance, with base metals and precious metals both increasing in prices, preparing the groundwork for 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingKey - 在 2025 年，金属市场经历了重大转变，并在过去三十年的表现中取得了最佳表现之一，基本金属和贵金属的价格均有所上涨，为 2026 年奠定了基础。</p>
</div><p>The price of Gold (XAUUSD) and Silver (XAGUSD) has reached record highs again this year, but the momentum experienced on the price charts is starting to become broader than before, so the question is now, Why are the dominant bulls/institutional investors switching from investing in Bullion to investing in Copper; What does that mean for future Copper prices in 2026?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金（XAUUSD）和白银（XAGUSD）的价格在今年再次创下历史新高，但价格图表上所经历的动能开始变得比以往更为广泛，因此现在的问题是，为什么主导的多头/机构投资者从投资金条转向投资铜；这对 2026 年未来铜价意味着什么？</p>
</div><h2>From Gold and Silver Strength to Copper Opportunity</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>从黄金和白银的强势到铜的机会</h2>
</div><p>In 2023 and through 2026, gold has remained at or near record levels as a result of continued high levels of inflation globally, rising geopolitical tensions, and ongoing strong demand for safe-ha­ven assets (with many of the major financial planners and investment firms maintaining a positive outlook for gold in the medium term).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2023 年至 2026 年期间，由于全球持续高水平的通货膨胀、地缘政治紧张局势上升以及对避险资产的强劲需求（许多主要的财务规划师和投资公司对黄金的中期前景持乐观态度），黄金一直保持在或接近历史高位。</p>
</div><p>Silver has surpassed that performance by a substantial share, moving into a new bull cycle with record prices in the most recent 12 months and has increased by more than 100% from its lows in early 2025, expanding upon its dual role of safe-haven and growing use in industrial applications (particularly in renewable energy and electronics).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>白银的表现大幅超越了黄金，进入了一个新的牛市周期，在最近的 12 个月中创下了历史新高，并且自 2025 年初的低点以来上涨了超过 100%，进一步巩固了其作为避险资产和在工业应用中（特别是在可再生能源和电子产品中的使用）的双重角色。</p>
</div><p>Due to increasing valuations in gold and silver, the search for assets with strong structural supply­-demand dynamics has driven institutional investors to shift their allocations from both gold and silver into copper; this shift reflects a broadening of momentum in capital markets and the appetite for cyclical expansion in addition to defensive allocations in their respective portfolios.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于黄金和白银的估值不断上升，寻找具有强大结构性供需动态的资产促使机构投资者将其配置从黄金和白银转向铜；这种转变反映了资本市场动能的扩大以及对周期性扩张的需求，除了在各自投资组合中的防御性配置。</p>
</div><h2>Dr. Copper Becomes a Strategic Asset</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>铜博士成为战略资产</h2>
</div><p>The long-term demand for copper is supported and driven by the energy transition to renewable power sources and building out new digital infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>铜的长期需求受到能源转型为可再生能源和新数字基础设施建设的支持和推动。</p>
</div><p>Copper will remain irreplaceable in electric grids, smart distribution, and electric vehicles. As electric vehicles are adopted at a greater scale, the demand will compound because electric vehicles require significantly more copper than an internal combustion engine vehicle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>铜在电网、智能分配和电动车中将继续不可替代。随着电动车的广泛采用，需求将成倍增加，因为电动车所需的铜远远超过内燃机车辆。</p>
</div><p>Also, increased spending on technology will drive demand as data centers and artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure require copper for their high density of wiring, efficient cooling systems, and reliable power transmission.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，技术支出的增加将推动需求，因为数据中心和人工智能（AI）基础设施需要铜来满足其高密度布线、高效冷却系统和可靠的电力传输。</p>
</div><p>The combination of these trends will change Dr. Copper from an indicator of general industrial activity to an essential strategic resource driving the future of growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些趋势的结合将使铜博士从一般工业活动的指标转变为推动未来增长的关键战略资源。</p>
</div><h2>Supply Deficits Tighten the Copper Price Outlook</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>供应短缺收紧铜价展望</h2>
</div><p>The 2026 outlook suggests that there will be a shortfall of 330,000 tonnes of regularly used copper worldwide. The average price for a ton of regularly used copper in 2026 is projected to be approximately $12,075, with the highest being around $12,500 in the 2nd quarter of 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2026 年的展望表明，全球常用铜将出现 33 万吨的短缺。预计 2026 年常用铜的平均价格约为 12,075 美元/吨，最高可达 12,500 美元，出现在 2026 年第二季度。</p>
</div><p>As previously mentioned, Citigroup’s (C) estimates show that if supply is restricted and inventories continue to be so low, then we could see a copper price of over $13,000 or approaching $15,000 per tonne in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如之前提到的，花旗集团（C）的估计显示，如果供应受到限制且库存持续低位，那么我们可能会在 2026 年看到铜价超过 13,000 美元或接近 15,000 美元/吨。</p>
</div><p>This is based upon the fact that many of the largest copper mines are experiencing delays and interruptions to production, and investment in new mines is not keeping pace with the growth in demand for copper.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这基于许多大型铜矿正在经历生产延迟和中断的事实，而对新矿的投资未能跟上铜需求的增长。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, because copper inventories are low, any production shortfalls can have a direct impact on the copper price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，由于铜库存较低，任何生产短缺都可能对铜价产生直接影响。</p>
</div><h2>Institutional Rotation and Producer Leverage</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>机构轮换与生产商杠杆</h2>
</div><p>Signals from capital markets indicate that large investors are starting to change their allocations of gold/silver into base metals (copper) and view copper not only as an industrial commodity, but rather as an investable avenue for structural growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>资本市场的信号表明，大型投资者开始改变其黄金/白银的配置，转向基本金属（铜），并将铜视为不仅仅是工业商品，而是作为结构性增长的可投资途径。</p>
</div><p>This continued change in investor allocation to copper has increased investor interest in major copper mining companies, including Freeport-McMoRan, with the rise in the price of copper and positive share price performance reflecting an increase in investor confidence regarding copper and the potential earnings leverage for producers from a constrained supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种对铜的投资者配置持续变化，增加了投资者对主要铜矿公司的兴趣，包括自由港迈克墨伦，铜价的上涨和积极的股价表现反映了投资者对铜的信心增加，以及生产商在供应受限情况下的潜在盈利杠杆。</p>
</div><h2>2026 Copper Price Forecast</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2026 年铜价预测</h2>
</div><p>According to JPMorgan (JPM) and Citigroup, by 2026, copper should be viewed as a strategically important asset.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据摩根大通（JPM）和花旗集团的预测，到 2026 年，铜应被视为一种战略重要资产。</p>
</div><p>Analysts predict copper prices will be somewhere between $11,000-$14,000 per metric tonne, but some analysts expect even higher prices because of increased demand for technology.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师预测铜价将在每公吨 11,000 至 14,000 美元之间，但一些分析师预计由于对技术的需求增加，价格可能会更高。</p>
</div><p>The short-term outlook for copper is good, but because a large portion of the recent price increases has been due to speculation, there may be some consolidation of prices later in 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>铜的短期展望良好，但由于近期价格上涨的很大一部分是由于投机，可能会在 2022 年晚些时候出现价格整合。</p>
</div><p>The outlook for copper prices depends heavily on China (the world's largest consumer of copper), and whether or not the Chinese government's stimulus spending is less than expected will have a major impact on demand for copper.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>铜价的展望在很大程度上依赖于中国（全球最大的铜消费国），如果中国政府的刺激支出低于预期，将对铜的需求产生重大影响。</p>
</div><h2>Conclusion</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>结论</h2>
</div><p>In the 2025-2026 timeframe, there will also be a significant transition of metals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025-2026 年期间，金属市场也将经历重大转变。</p>
</div><p>Gold and silver had both enjoyed their respective safe haven attributes and industrial footing, but now, copper's critical role in facilitating clean energy production and its link to the Digital Economy will place it front and centre as an asset with a strategic value to institutional investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金和白银都享有各自的避险属性和工业基础，但现在，铜在促进清洁能源生产中的关键作用以及与数字经济的联系将使其成为机构投资者眼中具有战略价值的资产。</p>
</div><p>Copper will become a key talking point amongst investors by 2026 because of the extreme tightness in supply/demand balance, and the increased quantity of high-tech applications utilising copper.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到 2026 年，铜将成为投资者讨论的关键话题，因为供需平衡的极度紧张，以及越来越多的高科技应用利用铜。</p>
</div><p>And the substantial reallocation of portfolios of institutional investors, all of which are pressing current price volatility along with expected price appreciation, will create excellent profit potential and risk exposure for investors following the copper price forecast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而且，机构投资者的投资组合大规模重新配置，所有这些都在推动当前价格波动以及预期的价格上涨，将为跟随铜价预测的投资者创造良好的利润潜力和风险暴露。</p>
</div><p>Find out more</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>了解更多</p>
</div>

2026 年铜价预测：为何大资金正在转向铜市场