<p>胡志明市——在原料腰果供应国的地缘政治冲突和政策变化的背景下，越南腰果协会（Vinacas）预测 2026 年将面临挑战，并设定了越南腰果仁出口目标约为 80 万吨，价值约 50 亿美元。</p>
<p>越南腰果协会主席范文公表示，越南腰果产业在 2025 年的出口额约为 55 亿美元，创下历史新高。他指出，这一结果反映了该行业的显著发展、活力以及对国内外复杂和不可预测挑战的及时适应。</p>
<p>尽管取得了这一成功，公和协会的许多成员表示，2026 年该行业可能面临重大阻力，因为东欧和中东的地缘政治不稳定，以及全球贸易和运输的变化，将影响出口活动。</p>
<p>越南仍然严重依赖进口原料腰果，主要来自非洲国家。一些非洲国家出台了限制性政策，例如在收获季节初期实施临时出口禁令，以优先保障国内加工商的高质量原料。一些国家还设定了最低出口价格，并提高了原料腰果出口的税费。</p>
<p>这些因素使得原料腰果的进口变得更加困难和昂贵，降低了越南企业的利润空间。</p>
<p>与此同时，中东的冲突扰乱了全球物流，推高了燃料价格和运输成本。</p>
<p>根据越南腰果协会常务副主席白庆日的说法，近年来出口市场的结构已经发生变化。十多年来，美国一直是越南腰果的最大市场，但在 2025 年已降至第二位，落后于中国。</p>
<p>在 2025 年 4 月美国实施互惠关税政策后，许多企业将重点转向中东，并取得了积极成果，使该地区成为 2025 年第三大出口市场，占越南腰果出口市场份额的 10% 以上。</p>
<p>然而，随着当前冲突的持续，中东市场预计将面临重大干扰。</p>
<p>日建议企业在向该地区发货时特别谨慎，尤其是在交货时间方面。如果在冲突持续期间发货，船只可能被迫在海上停泊较长时间，这将影响公司的现金流并增加银行利息成本。</p>
<p>此外，如果在货物到达时市场情况发生变化，买方可能会要求重新谈判价格，这可能导致越南出口商的财务损失。</p>
<p>另一个主要担忧是海运费用的急剧和不可预测的上涨。运费可能每周甚至每天变化，如果船只因安全问题必须改变航线或延长旅行时间，可能会增加额外的附加费。</p>
<p>鉴于这些风险，建议企业在与中东的合作伙伴签订任何新合同之前，仔细考虑并密切关注事态发展。</p>
<p>“与此同时，企业应加大力度扩大对美国和中国等现有市场的出口，这两个市场是全球最大的腰果消费市场。即使在这些市场中市场份额的适度增加，也可以帮助抵消对中东出口的下降，” 日说。</p>
<p>越南领先的腰果加工和出口企业之一的高发公司首席执行官高肚威建议企业今年不要急于购买原料腰果。预计今年全球原料腰果供应将增加，企业应避免激烈竞争原料，这可能会不必要地推高价格。</p>
<p>由于地缘政治紧张和市场条件不确定，运输成本波动，企业被敦促谨慎行事，而不是急于以高价购买原材料，他补充道。</p>
<p>许多企业正转向开发深加工腰果产品，以创造更高的附加值并扩大消费市场，协会表示，这被视为一种战略方向，不仅有利于业务发展，还能增强越南在全球腰果价值链中的地位。——越南新闻社</p>

<p>越南的腰果行业预计在 2026 年面临挑战，目标出口 80 万吨，价值 50 亿美元。尽管在 2025 年创下了 55 亿美元的纪录，但原料腰果供应国的地缘政治冲突和政策变化带来了风险。由于依赖进口原料腰果，该行业面临困难，非洲国家实施了限制性政策。中东市场，曾是一个快速增长的出口目的地，也预计将面临干扰。企业被建议在扩展对美国和中国的出口时，谨慎应对运输和市场状况</p>

<p>HCM CITY — Amid geopolitical conflicts and policy changes in raw cashew-supplying countries, the Vietnam Cashew Association (Vinacas) forecasts a challenging 2026 and has set a target for Việt Nam’s cashew kernel exports of around 800,000 tonnes, worth about US$5 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>胡志明市——在原料腰果供应国的地缘政治冲突和政策变化的背景下，越南腰果协会（Vinacas）预测 2026 年将面临挑战，并设定了越南腰果仁出口目标约为 80 万吨，价值约 50 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Phạm Văn Công, the association’s chairman, said Việt Nam’s cashew industry recorded export turnover of about $5.5 billion in 2025, the highest level ever. He noted that the result reflects the industry’s remarkable development, dynamism and timely adaptation to complex and unpredictable challenges both domestically and globally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>越南腰果协会主席范文公表示，越南腰果产业在 2025 年的出口额约为 55 亿美元，创下历史新高。他指出，这一结果反映了该行业的显著发展、活力以及对国内外复杂和不可预测挑战的及时适应。</p>
</div><p>Despite this success, Công and many members of the association said the industry is likely to face significant headwinds in 2026 as geopolitical instability in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, along with changes in global trade and shipping, will affect export activities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管取得了这一成功，公和协会的许多成员表示，2026 年该行业可能面临重大阻力，因为东欧和中东的地缘政治不稳定，以及全球贸易和运输的变化，将影响出口活动。</p>
</div><p>Việt Nam also remains heavily dependent on imported raw cashew nuts, mainly from African countries. Several African nations have introduced restrictive policies, such as temporary export bans at the beginning of the harvest season to prioritise high-quality raw materials for domestic processors. Some countries have also set minimum export prices and increased taxes and fees on raw cashew exports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>越南仍然严重依赖进口原料腰果，主要来自非洲国家。一些非洲国家出台了限制性政策，例如在收获季节初期实施临时出口禁令，以优先保障国内加工商的高质量原料。一些国家还设定了最低出口价格，并提高了原料腰果出口的税费。</p>
</div><p>These factors make raw cashew imports more difficult and costly, reducing profit margins for Vietnamese enterprises.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些因素使得原料腰果的进口变得更加困难和昂贵，降低了越南企业的利润空间。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the conflict in the Middle East has disrupted global logistics, driving up fuel prices and shipping costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，中东的冲突扰乱了全球物流，推高了燃料价格和运输成本。</p>
</div><p>According to Bạch Khánh Nhật, permanent vice chairman of Vinacas, the structure of export markets has already changed in recent years. For more than a decade, the US was the largest market for Vietnamese cashews, but in 2025 it has fallen to second place, behind China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据越南腰果协会常务副主席白庆日的说法，近年来出口市场的结构已经发生变化。十多年来，美国一直是越南腰果的最大市场，但在 2025 年已降至第二位，落后于中国。</p>
</div><p>Following the introduction of US reciprocal tariff policies in April 2025, many enterprises shifted their focus to the Middle East and achieved positive results, helping the region become the third-largest export market in 2025, accounting for more than 10 per cent of Việt Nam’s cashew export market share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年 4 月美国实施互惠关税政策后，许多企业将重点转向中东，并取得了积极成果，使该地区成为 2025 年第三大出口市场，占越南腰果出口市场份额的 10% 以上。</p>
</div><p>However, with the current conflicts, the Middle East market is expected to face significant disruptions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，随着当前冲突的持续，中东市场预计将面临重大干扰。</p>
</div><p>Nhật advised businesses to be particularly cautious with shipments to the region, especially regarding delivery timing. If goods are shipped while the conflict continues, vessels may be forced to anchor offshore for extended periods, tying up companies’ cash flow and increasing bank interest costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日建议企业在向该地区发货时特别谨慎，尤其是在交货时间方面。如果在冲突持续期间发货，船只可能被迫在海上停泊较长时间，这将影响公司的现金流并增加银行利息成本。</p>
</div><p>In addition, if market conditions change by the time goods arrive, buyers may request price renegotiations, which could lead to financial losses for Vietnamese exporters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，如果在货物到达时市场情况发生变化，买方可能会要求重新谈判价格，这可能导致越南出口商的财务损失。</p>
</div><p>Another major concern is the sharp and unpredictable rise in maritime freight costs. Shipping rates can change weekly or even daily, and additional surcharges may be imposed if vessels must alter routes or extend travel time due to security concerns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个主要担忧是海运费用的急剧和不可预测的上涨。运费可能每周甚至每天变化，如果船只因安全问题必须改变航线或延长旅行时间，可能会增加额外的附加费。</p>
</div><p>Given these risks, businesses are advised to carefully consider any new contracts with partners in the Middle East and closely monitor developments before making decisions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于这些风险，建议企业在与中东的合作伙伴签订任何新合同之前，仔细考虑并密切关注事态发展。</p>
</div><p>“At the same time, enterprises should step up efforts to expand exports to existing markets such as the US and China, the world’s two largest cashew-consuming markets. Even a modest increase in market share in these markets could help offset declines in exports to the Middle East,” Nhật said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“与此同时，企业应加大力度扩大对美国和中国等现有市场的出口，这两个市场是全球最大的腰果消费市场。即使在这些市场中市场份额的适度增加，也可以帮助抵消对中东出口的下降，” 日说。</p>
</div><p>Cao Thúc Uy, CEO of Cao Phát, one of Việt Nam’s leading cashew processors and exporters, advised firms not to rush into purchasing raw cashew nuts this year. The global supply of raw cashew nuts is forecast to increase this year, enterprises should avoid competing aggressively for raw materials, which could drive up prices unnecessarily.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>越南领先的腰果加工和出口企业之一的高发公司首席执行官高肚威建议企业今年不要急于购买原料腰果。预计今年全球原料腰果供应将增加，企业应避免激烈竞争原料，这可能会不必要地推高价格。</p>
</div><p>With shipping costs fluctuating due to geopolitical tensions and uncertain market conditions, companies are urged to proceed cautiously rather than rush to buy raw materials at high prices, he added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于地缘政治紧张和市场条件不确定，运输成本波动，企业被敦促谨慎行事，而不是急于以高价购买原材料，他补充道。</p>
</div><p>Many enterprises are shifting toward developing deep-processed cashew products to create higher added value and expand consumption markets, the association said, adding that this is seen as a strategic direction, not only for business development but also for strengthening Việt Nam’s position in the global cashew value chain. — VNS</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多企业正转向开发深加工腰果产品，以创造更高的附加值并扩大消费市场，协会表示，这被视为一种战略方向，不仅有利于业务发展，还能增强越南在全球腰果价值链中的地位。——越南新闻社</p>
</div>

越南的腰果行业在全球不确定性中为 2026 年的挑战做好准备