<div><section><strong><span><span>本文作者：陈曦，开源证券固收首席；王帅中，联系人</span></span></strong></section><section><strong><span><span><br/></span></span></strong></section><section><span>近期市场交易<span><span class="qnt-link"><span>滞胀</span></span></span>，市场表现为：“<span><span class="qnt-link"><span>股债双杀</span></span></span>”。</span></section><section><span>按照传统理论，<span>滞胀时期</span>，应该是：多商品 + 多现金，<span>空股 + 空债</span>，</span></section><section><span><span>但是，我们复盘历史上的滞胀时期，</span></span></section><section><span><span>却发现多数情况下是：</span></span></section><section><span><span style="color: rgb(171, 25, 66)">“股涨 + 债跌”。</span></span></section><section><span><br/></span></section><section><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"><span>历史上经典的滞胀情形</span></span></section><section><span><span>按照最通俗的理解，滞胀=经济增长下行 + 通胀上行，</span></span></section><section><span>历史上经典的滞胀情形：</span></section><section><span><br/></span></section><section><span><span>（1）美国 1970-1980 年</span></span></section><section><span>这是目前市场主流对比的时期，</span></section><section><span>这一时期，标普 500 上涨约 50%，10 年期美债收益率上行约 5%。</span></section><section><span><span>部分市场观点复盘美国当时滞胀，只强调 1973-1974 年的美股大跌，</span></span></section><section><span><span>这种观点并不客观。</span></span></section><section><span><img alt="图片" src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OjIKcIHZQ3hOd_Qt5sc6j9yj4QsJrycBAU5IGdpzx1WpwAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="960" height="338" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OjIKcIHZQ3hOd_Qt5sc6j9yj4QsJrycBAU5IGdpzx1WpwAA/641"/></span></section><section><span>当时油价上涨有三波：</span></section><section><span><span>第一波，1970-1972 年，布伦特原油价格涨幅约 50%，</span></span></section><section><span><span>标准普尔 500 指数涨幅约 50%，</span></span></section><section><span>这一阶段也是美股 “<span><span class="qnt-link"><span>漂亮 50</span></span></span>” 泡沫形成期；</span></section><section><span><br/></span></section><section><span><span>第二波，1973-1974 年，布伦特原油价格上涨 5 倍，</span></span></section><section><span><span>美股 “漂亮 50” 泡沫破灭，美股大跌；</span></span></section><section><span>但需要注意的是，1974 年油价下跌之后，</span></section><section><span>美股继续加速下跌至 1974 年末，</span></section><section><span>可见当时油价并非美股下跌的根本原因。</span></section><section><span><br/></span></section><section><span><span>第三波，1978-1980 年，布伦特原油价格上涨 2 倍，</span></span></section><section><span><span>标准普尔 500 指数上涨约 50%。</span></span></section><section><span><br/></span></section><section><span><span>综上所述，1970-1980 年有三段油价上涨，</span></span></section><section><span><span>其中两段上涨期间美股大涨，一段上涨期间美股大跌。</span></span></section><section><span><br/></span></section><section><span><span>从最终结果看，1970-1980 年滞胀时期，</span></span></section><section><span><span>标准普尔 500 指数累计上涨约 50%，</span></span></section><section><span><span>10 年期美债收益率上行约 5%</span></span></section><section><span><br/></span></section><section><span><span>（2）日本疫情之后</span></span></section><section><span><span>日本疫情之后的环境就是滞胀：</span></span></section><section><span><span>一方面实际<span><span class="qnt-link"><span>GDP</span></span></span>增速趋势缓慢下行，</span></span></section><section><span><span>另一方面<span><span class="qnt-link"><span>CPI</span></span></span>同比趋势显著上行。</span></span></section><section><span>特别是 2022 年之后，日本通胀连续 4 年高于 2%。</span></section><section><span><img alt="图片" src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OUO09UVbr7W4KHRQC5VJohTU7oiuNPoSV-uqzQV9_TYM4AA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="960" height="307" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OUO09UVbr7W4KHRQC5VJohTU7oiuNPoSV-uqzQV9_TYM4AA/641"/></span></section><section><span>日本市场处在滞胀环境的表现：</span></section><section><span><span>2022 年至今，</span></span></section><section><span><span>日经 225 指数涨幅约 90%，</span></span></section><section><span>30 年期日债收益率上行 2.5% 左右。</span></section><section><span><br/></span></section><section><span><span>即日本在滞胀时期，</span></span></section><section><span><span>同样是：“股涨 + 债跌”</span></span></section><section><span><img alt="图片" src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/O3YO8YPEaYHjjxbkfgpjADPY86GKqLUDpqM5dET_GX2Q0AA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="960" height="287" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/O3YO8YPEaYHjjxbkfgpjADPY86GKqLUDpqM5dET_GX2Q0AA/641"/></span></section><section><span><br/></span></section><section><span><span>（3）中国 2016-2017 年</span></span></section><section><span>2016 年上半年，中国市场就有关于 “滞胀” 的讨论，</span></section><section><span>从结果看，<span>2016-2017 年 GDP 增速低于 2014-2015 年 GDP 增速</span>，</span></section><section><span>2016-2017 年<span><span class="qnt-link"><span>PPI</span></span></span>同比高于 2014-2015 年 PPI 同比。</span></section><section><span><img alt="图片" src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/Okrh3-wTNMTyJkCWWyLGm_j_lftzOwlCG420n8aDzaPNkAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="960" height="320" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/Okrh3-wTNMTyJkCWWyLGm_j_lftzOwlCG420n8aDzaPNkAA/641"/></span></section><section><span>那么 2016-2017 年中国市场表现如何？</span></section><section><span><img alt="图片" src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OecHQGtzL9EAtgOW-lfhN0TSQneRAhDKpkpOsNTfVCHAUAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="960" height="342" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OecHQGtzL9EAtgOW-lfhN0TSQneRAhDKpkpOsNTfVCHAUAA/641"/></span></section><section><span><span>2016-2017 年中国市场表现为沪深 300 指数涨幅约 26%，</span></span></section><section><span><span>10 年期国债上行约 1%。</span></span></section><section><span><span>结果依然是：</span></span></section><section><span><span>“股涨 + 债跌”</span></span></section><section><span><br/></span></section><section><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"><span>“滞胀” 时期，不一定 “股债双杀”，而可能是 “股涨、债跌”</span></span></section><section><span><br/></span></section><section><span>从以上三个案例可以看出，</span></section><section><span><span>滞胀时期，未必 “股债双杀”，</span></span></section><section><span><span>而可能会 “股涨、债跌”。</span></span></section><section><span><br/></span></section><section><span>本质逻辑是：</span></section><section><span><span style="color: rgb(171, 25, 66)">股市波动跟随企业盈利波动，</span></span></section><section><span><span style="color: rgb(171, 25, 66)">滞胀环境下，只要物价上行幅度＞经济下行幅度，</span></span></section><section><span><span style="color: rgb(171, 25, 66)">企业盈利在滞胀环境下反而会改善，</span></span></section><section><span><span style="color: rgb(171, 25, 66)">而这会导致股价的上涨。</span></span></section><section><span><br/></span></section><section><span><span>这也是我们对 2026 年政府工作报告理解的核心逻辑：</span></span></section><section><span><span style="color: rgb(171, 25, 66)">2026 年 GDP 目标下调，以减少供给、提高物价，</span></span></section><section><span><span style="color: rgb(171, 25, 66)">结果会导致：</span></span></section><section><span><span style="color: rgb(171, 25, 66)">GDP 增速回落 + 物价回升。</span></span></section><section><span><br/></span></section><section><span><span>由于物价回升幅度＞经济回落幅度，</span></span></section><section><span><span>因此企业盈利会显著改善，</span></span></section><section><span><span>进而导致居民收入趋势改善，</span></span></section><section><span><span>最终消费的名义需求回升。</span></span></section><section><span><br/></span></section><section><span>这一过程已经在 2016-2017 年的中国，</span></section><section><span>也在 2022 年之后的日本、1970-1980 年的美国发生。</span></section><section><span><br/></span></section><section><span><span style="color: rgb(171, 25, 66)">股市跟随的是：“包含物价的<span><span class="qnt-link"><span>名义经济</span></span></span>”（滞胀期，上行），</span></span></section><section><span><span style="color: rgb(171, 25, 66)">而非：“扣除物价之后的<span><span class="qnt-link"><span>实际经济</span></span></span>”（滞胀期，下行）。</span></span></section><section><span><br/></span></section><section><span>因此，在很多滞胀时期，</span></section><section><span>同时股市估值在起点是合理的情况下（1973 年美股的问题是估值不合理），</span></section><section><span>股市通常是上涨的。</span></section><section><span><br/></span></section><section><span><span>对于当前中国股市，</span></span></section><section><span><span>我们认为大盘股的估值依然处于低位，与 2016 年初的情况类似，</span></span></section><section><span><span>因此，我们认为，在经济增速回落与通胀回升的情况下，</span></span></section><section><span><span>大盘股表现也会类似 2016-2017 年，</span></span></section><section><span><span>出现趋势性上行。</span></span></section><section><span><br/></span></section><section><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"><span>滞胀时期，债券收益率普遍上行</span></span></section><section><span><br/></span></section><section><span><span style="color: rgb(171, 25, 66)">债券收益率跟随的也是：“包含物价的名义经济”（滞胀期，上行），</span></span></section><section><span><span style="color: rgb(171, 25, 66)">而非：“扣除物价之后的实际经济”（滞胀期，下行）。</span></span></section><section><span><br/></span></section><section><span><span>因此在滞胀时期，</span></span></section><section><span><span>债券收益率普遍上行，</span></span></section><section><span><span>除非，债券收益率起点过高，例如 2021 年初的中国债市。</span></span></section><section><span><br/></span></section><section><span><span style="color: rgb(171, 25, 66)">2021 年初，</span><span>中国债市估值为：</span></span></section><section><span><span>10 年国债收益率高达 OMO</span><span style="color: rgb(171, 25, 66)">+100bp</span><span>，</span></span></section><section><span>隐含的是对经济极强的乐观预期，</span></section><section><span>因此 2021 年经济边际回落 + 物价上行，</span></section><section><span>债券收益率是下行的。</span></section><section><span><br/></span></section><section><span><span style="color: rgb(171, 25, 66)">对于当前债市，</span></span></section><section><span><span>目前 10 年国债仅为 OMO</span><span style="color: rgb(171, 25, 66)">+40bp</span><span>，</span></span></section><section><span><span>尽管比 2025 年上半年的 OMO+10bp 有所改善，</span></span></section><section><span><span>但是依然处在历史区间 40-70bp 的下限，</span></span></section><section><span><span style="color: rgb(171, 25, 66)">远远低于 2021 年初的 OMO+100bp。</span></span></section><section><span><br/></span></section><section><span><span style="color: rgb(171, 25, 66)">当前中国债市估值，</span></span></section><section><span><span style="color: rgb(171, 25, 66)">与 2016 年最低点的 OMO+40bp 类似，</span></span></section><section><span><span style="color: rgb(171, 25, 66)">因此，我们认为，</span></span></section><section><span><span style="color: rgb(171, 25, 66)">在经济增速回落 + 通胀回升的情况下，</span></span></section><section><span><span style="color: rgb(171, 25, 66)">将类似 2016-2017 年，</span></span></section><section><span><span style="color: rgb(171, 25, 66)">债券收益率趋势上行。</span></span></section><section><span><br/></span></section><section><span><br/></span></section><section><span><span>风险提示：政策变化超预期；经济变化超预期</span></span></section><section><span><br/></span></section><section><span><img alt="图片" src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OoxpOizDtaHf-Y2gv1YdXuJFp1-a5_D1-vz5Dm2cScO4IAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="640" height="10" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OoxpOizDtaHf-Y2gv1YdXuJFp1-a5_D1-vz5Dm2cScO4IAA/641"/></span><span><br/></span></section><section><section><section><span><span>《证券期货投资者适当性管理办法》于 2017 年 7 月 1 日起正式实施。通过微信形式制作的本资料仅面向开源证券客户中的金融机构专业投资者，请勿对本资料进行任何形式的转发行为。若您并非开源证券客户中的金融机构专业投资者，为保证服务质量、控制投资风险，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的信息。本资料难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，还请见谅！感谢您给予的理解和配合。若有任何疑问，请与我们联系。</span></span></section></section></section></div>

标普 500 指数

纳斯达克综合指数

道琼斯公共事业指数

道琼斯指数

<p>本文探讨了滞胀时期市场表现，指出传统理论认为应为 “股债双杀”，但历史数据显示，滞胀期间往往出现 “股涨 + 债跌” 的情况。以美国 1970-1980 年、日本疫情后及中国 2016-2017 年为例，分析了不同阶段的市场表现，强调在滞胀环境中，股市和债市的表现并不一致。</p>

【开源固收】“滞胀”，一定会 “股债双杀” 吗？