<ul>
<li>丹麦将于 3 月 24 日举行大选</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>社会民主党领袖梅特·弗雷德里克森寻求第三个总理任期</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>格林兰和乌克兰提升了国际形象</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>中左派领导人因生活成本问题受到批评</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>庇护改革遏制了极右翼，但疏远了一些盟友</li>
</ul>
<p>作者：索伦·耶佩森</p>
<p>哥本哈根，3 月 17 日（路透社）- 丹麦总理梅特·弗雷德里克森在格林兰问题上与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对抗，已将其领导地位置于风险之中。说服国内选民给予她第三个任期的难度正在加大。</p>
<p>她在 3 月 24 日的大选中押注于她对北极岛屿的强硬立场，期望这能克服人们对她是否足够关注丹麦生活成本危机的日益怀疑。</p>
<p>弗雷德里克森的社会民主党在去年 11 月的市政选举中遭遇历史性失败，但今年的复苏可能使她成为自二战以来丹麦任期最长的领导人，如果她能完成另一个完整的任期。</p>
<p>社会民主党的支持率在 12 月的民意调查中骤降至 17%，远低于 2022 年的 28%，但在最近几周反弹至约 22%，许多丹麦人表示这是因为她对格林兰争端的果断处理。</p>
<h3>不受欢迎的决定</h3>
<p>48 岁的弗雷德里克森在 24 岁时进入议会，自 2015 年起领导社会民主党，四年后成为丹麦最年轻的总理，也是第二位女性领导该国政府。</p>
<p>她的早期职业生涯主要致力于捍卫丹麦对福利、劳动规则和边界的控制，同时将更深层次的欧盟一体化视为对主权的限制。</p>
<p>然而，俄罗斯入侵乌克兰和对美国安全保障的日益不确定性使她发生了转变。她放弃了丹麦对集体欧盟债务的反对，支持联合国防采购，并在去年与财政保守派的 “节俭四国” 其他成员渐行渐远，称欧洲团结已成为安全的必要。</p>
<p>对弗雷德里克森来说，最具破坏性的事件之一发生在新冠疫情期间，她的政府在 2020 年下令屠杀丹麦所有的貂，因担心它们可能携带病毒。</p>
<p>公众调查后来得出结论，认为这一举措缺乏法律依据，弗雷德里克森和她的政府 “严重误导” 了公众，尽管调查也发现她并未亲自意识到自己超越了权力。</p>
<p>貂的丑闻并非孤立事件。她的政府决定取消一个公共假期以帮助资助增加的国防开支，激怒了全国的工人。</p>
<p>与此同时，她因自上而下的领导风格而被指责疏远政治伙伴，并因与中右翼形成联盟而受到批评，尽管她在 2022 年的竞选承诺是左倾多数政府。</p>
<p>她大幅限制移民，特别是来自非西方国家的移民，遏制了极右翼对对庇护政策不满的利用，但也驱走了传统的左翼盟友。</p>
<p>“人们对她真的很疲惫。她主导了丹麦政治的一切，但她在所有问题上都改变了主意，从丹麦历史上最怀疑欧盟的总理变成了最支持欧盟的总理之一。这对选民的信任造成了巨大损害，” 政治分析师诺亚·雷丁顿表示。</p>
<h3>在国外强势，国内弱势</h3>
<p>此次选举将考验一位经历了包括全球疫情、俄罗斯入侵乌克兰、无人机入侵、北溪管道破坏以及与华盛顿在格林兰问题上的对抗等一系列危机的领导者的支持。</p>
<p>每一次危机都提升了弗雷德里克森的国际形象，尽管这加深了部分选民对她关注其他事务的感觉。</p>
<p>如果她赢得选举并完成一个完整的任期，她将执政近 11 年，成为自社会民主党人托瓦尔德·斯陶宁以来任期最长的总理，斯陶宁的 15 年任期于 1942 年结束。</p>
<p>与此同时，弗雷德里克森在欧洲政治中的形象稳步上升，她在支持格林兰方面团结了盟友，并成为乌克兰最强有力的支持者之一。</p>
<p>在 2023 年，弗雷德里克森被认为是北约秘书长的可能候选人，丹麦人仍在问她是否最终会出国。</p>
<p>“这一切都有些像告别巡演。如果她连任，她的整个第三个任期将被 ‘她何时离开’ 的问题所主导。没有人相信她会再次完成一个完整的任期，” 雷丁顿说。</p>

<ul>
<li>Denmark to hold general election on March 24</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>丹麦将于 3 月 24 日举行大选</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Social Democrat Mette Frederiksen seeking third term as PM</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>社会民主党领袖梅特·弗雷德里克森寻求第三个总理任期</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Greenland, Ukraine have boosted profile abroad</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>格林兰和乌克兰提升了国际形象</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Centre-left leader has been criticised over cost-of-living</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>中左派领导人因生活成本问题受到批评</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Asylum reforms have curbed far-right but alienated some allies</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>庇护改革遏制了极右翼，但疏远了一些盟友</li>
</ul>
</div><p>By Soren Jeppesen</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：索伦·耶佩森</p>
</div><p>COPENHAGEN, March 17 (Reuters) - Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has staked her leadership on defying U.S. President Donald Trump over Greenland. Convincing voters at home to give her a third term is proving harder.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>哥本哈根，3 月 17 日（路透社）- 丹麦总理梅特·弗雷德里克森在格林兰问题上与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对抗，已将其领导地位置于风险之中。说服国内选民给予她第三个任期的难度正在加大。</p>
</div><p>She heads into a March 24 general election betting that her defiant stand over the Arctic island will overcome growing doubts about whether she has paid enough attention to a cost-of-living crisis in Denmark.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>她在 3 月 24 日的大选中押注于她对北极岛屿的强硬立场，期望这能克服人们对她是否足够关注丹麦生活成本危机的日益怀疑。</p>
</div><p>Frederiksen, whose Social Democrats suffered a historic defeat in municipal elections last November, has seen a revival this year which could make her Denmark’s longest-serving leader since World War Two if she completes another full term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>弗雷德里克森的社会民主党在去年 11 月的市政选举中遭遇历史性失败，但今年的复苏可能使她成为自二战以来丹麦任期最长的领导人，如果她能完成另一个完整的任期。</p>
</div><p>Support for the Social Democrats plummeted to 17% in December opinion polls, well below the 28% it won in 2022, before rebounding to around 22% in recent weeks amid what many Danes said was resolute handling of the Greenland dispute.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>社会民主党的支持率在 12 月的民意调查中骤降至 17%，远低于 2022 年的 28%，但在最近几周反弹至约 22%，许多丹麦人表示这是因为她对格林兰争端的果断处理。</p>
</div><h3>UNPOPULAR DECISIONS</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>不受欢迎的决定</h3>
</div><p>Frederiksen, 48, entered parliament at 24 and has led the Social Democrats since 2015, becoming Denmark’s youngest prime minister four years later and only the second woman to lead the Nordic country’s government.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>48 岁的弗雷德里克森在 24 岁时进入议会，自 2015 年起领导社会民主党，四年后成为丹麦最年轻的总理，也是第二位女性领导该国政府。</p>
</div><p>She built much of her early career on defending Danish control over welfare, labour rules and borders, while casting deeper EU integration as a constraint on sovereignty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>她的早期职业生涯主要致力于捍卫丹麦对福利、劳动规则和边界的控制，同时将更深层次的欧盟一体化视为对主权的限制。</p>
</div><p>However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and growing uncertainty over U.S. security guarantees caused her to shift. She dropped Denmark’s opposition to collective EU debt, backed joint defence procurement and last year moved away from the other members of the fiscally conservative “Frugal Four”, saying European unity had become a security necessity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，俄罗斯入侵乌克兰和对美国安全保障的日益不确定性使她发生了转变。她放弃了丹麦对集体欧盟债务的反对，支持联合国防采购，并在去年与财政保守派的 “节俭四国” 其他成员渐行渐远，称欧洲团结已成为安全的必要。</p>
</div><p>One of the most damaging episodes for Frederiksen came during the Covid-19 pandemic, when her government in 2020 ordered Denmark’s entire mink population culled over fears they could carry the virus.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对弗雷德里克森来说，最具破坏性的事件之一发生在新冠疫情期间，她的政府在 2020 年下令屠杀丹麦所有的貂，因担心它们可能携带病毒。</p>
</div><p>A public inquiry later concluded that the move lacked a legal basis, and that Frederiksen and her government “grossly misled” the public, though it also found she had not personally been aware that she overstepped her authority.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公众调查后来得出结论，认为这一举措缺乏法律依据，弗雷德里克森和她的政府 “严重误导” 了公众，尽管调查也发现她并未亲自意识到自己超越了权力。</p>
</div><p>The mink scandal was not an isolated episode. Her government’s decision to abolish a public holiday to help finance increased defence spending angered workers across the country.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>貂的丑闻并非孤立事件。她的政府决定取消一个公共假期以帮助资助增加的国防开支，激怒了全国的工人。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, she has been accused of alienating political partners with a top-down leadership style, and for forming a coalition with the centre-right despite a 2022 campaign promise of left-leaning majority government.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，她因自上而下的领导风格而被指责疏远政治伙伴，并因与中右翼形成联盟而受到批评，尽管她在 2022 年的竞选承诺是左倾多数政府。</p>
</div><p>She has sharply curbed immigration, particularly from non-Western nations, curbing the momentum of far-right rivals seeking to capitalise on discontent with asylum policies but driving away traditional allies on the left.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>她大幅限制移民，特别是来自非西方国家的移民，遏制了极右翼对对庇护政策不满的利用，但也驱走了传统的左翼盟友。</p>
</div><p>“People are really tired of her. She dominates everything in Danish politics, yet she has changed her mind on everything, from being the most Eurosceptic prime minister Denmark has ever had, to one of its most pro-European. That wears enormously on voters’ trust,” said Noa Redington, a political analyst.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“人们对她真的很疲惫。她主导了丹麦政治的一切，但她在所有问题上都改变了主意，从丹麦历史上最怀疑欧盟的总理变成了最支持欧盟的总理之一。这对选民的信任造成了巨大损害，” 政治分析师诺亚·雷丁顿表示。</p>
</div><h3>STRONG ABROAD, WEAKER AT HOME</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>在国外强势，国内弱势</h3>
</div><p>The election will test support for a leader who has navigated an extraordinary sequence of crises, including a global pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, drone incursions, the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines, and the confrontation with Washington over Greenland.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此次选举将考验一位经历了包括全球疫情、俄罗斯入侵乌克兰、无人机入侵、北溪管道破坏以及与华盛顿在格林兰问题上的对抗等一系列危机的领导者的支持。</p>
</div><p>Each crisis has raised Frederiksen’s international profile, even as it deepened some voters’ sense that her attention lies elsewhere.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每一次危机都提升了弗雷德里克森的国际形象，尽管这加深了部分选民对她关注其他事务的感觉。</p>
</div><p>If she wins the election and serves a full term she will have been in office for almost 11 years, the longest of any prime minister since fellow Social Democrat Thorvald Stauning, whose 15 years in power ended in 1942.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果她赢得选举并完成一个完整的任期，她将执政近 11 年，成为自社会民主党人托瓦尔德·斯陶宁以来任期最长的总理，斯陶宁的 15 年任期于 1942 年结束。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Frederiksen’s profile in European politics has steadily risen, as she rallied allies in support of Greenland and emerged as one of Ukraine’s strongest backers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，弗雷德里克森在欧洲政治中的形象稳步上升，她在支持格林兰方面团结了盟友，并成为乌克兰最强有力的支持者之一。</p>
</div><p>In 2023, Frederiksen was floated as a possible candidate for NATO secretary-general, and Danes still ask themselves whether she will eventually head abroad.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2023 年，弗雷德里克森被认为是北约秘书长的可能候选人，丹麦人仍在问她是否最终会出国。</p>
</div><p>“There is something of a farewell tour about all this. If she is re-elected, her entire third term will be dominated by the question of when does she leave? Nobody believes she will serve a full term again,” said Redington.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这一切都有些像告别巡演。如果她连任，她的整个第三个任期将被 ‘她何时离开’ 的问题所主导。没有人相信她会再次完成一个完整的任期，” 雷丁顿说。</p>
</div>

梅特·弗雷德里克森，丹麦的反特朗普首相，寻求第三个任期