<h2>美联储，FOMC 关键要点</h2>
<ul>
<li>交易员和经济学家预计美联储将把利率维持在 3.50-3.75% 的区间。</li>
<li>鉴于伊朗战争，中央银行可能会上调其对 2026 年失业率（从 12 月的 4.5%）和核心 PCE 通胀（从 3.0% 上调至 3.2% 或 3.3%）的预测。</li>
<li>除非鲍威尔明确表示对经济的担忧，否则交易员可能会在其下行趋势中选择卖出 GBP/USD，最终测试 1.3200 的支撑位。</li>
</ul>
<h2>FOMC 会议何时召开？</h2>
<p>2026 年 3 月的 FOMC 会议将于 <strong>3 月 18 日星期三下午 2:00（东部时间）</strong> 结束。</p>
<p>美联储主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会将于 <strong>下午 2:30（东部时间）</strong> 开始。</p>
<h2>FOMC 利率预期是什么？</h2>
<p><strong>交易员和经济学家预计美联储将把利率维持在 3.75-4.00% 的区间，</strong> 并对此充满信心。</p>
<p>截至撰写时，CME FedWatch 的美联储基金期货交易员预计 <strong>99% 的概率</strong> 不会改变利率：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260317114312-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1154" height="514" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260317114312-1.png"/></p>
<p><em>来源：CME FedWatch</em></p>
<p>即使展望接下来的几次会议，交易员也预计到 6 月不会改变利率的概率超过 75%，因此利率在今年下半年之前很可能会保持不变。</p>
<p>假设美联储如预期保持利率不变，市场的关注将立即转向中央银行的货币政策声明、经济预测摘要以及鲍威尔主席的新闻发布会，以获取有关美联储如何看待劳动力市场和通胀动态的见解，特别是在伊朗战争导致能源价格飙升的背景下。</p>
<h2>FOMC 会议预测</h2>
<p>正如他一贯所做的，特朗普总统本周早些时候在 Truth Social 上要求美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔立即降息。</p>
<p>对总统来说不幸的是，美联储不仅不会在本周降息，而且在今年上半年很可能会保持不变，即使特朗普挑选的接班人凯文·沃什在 6 月接任，考虑到中东冲突和油价飙升。</p>
<p>伊朗战争对美联储的双重任务施加了压力，首先是提高能源成本（从而导致通胀），其次是对已经放缓的劳动力市场施加压力。由于 “战争迷雾” 影响了经济的未来前景，鲍威尔及其团队在本月保持政策不变的决定应该是简单明了的，同时在声明中承认不确定性，可能只有一位反对者（特朗普任命的斯蒂芬·米兰）。</p>
<p>对于交易员来说，FOMC 会议的趣味在于季度经济预测摘要。委员会可能会坚持其对今年降息一次的预测（尽管有可能中位数成员可能会转向今年不降息）。与此同时，中央银行上调其 2026 年失业率预测（从 12 月的 4.5%）的风险也存在，核心 PCE 通胀预测也面临上调风险（从 3.0% 上调至 3.2% 或 3.3%），因为在伊朗冲突爆发之前，其通胀率已经达到 3.1%。</p>
<p>虽然这些调整本身并不是改变游戏规则的因素，但这些变化使美国经济更接近于 “滞涨” 轨迹，这是每位中央银行家最担心的情景。</p>
<p>至于鲍威尔主席的倒数第二次证词，这位前律师可能会回避任何关于美联储政治化的问题，以及他是否计划在 5 月 15 日任期结束后继续留在美联储董事会。</p>
<p>沃伦·巴菲特曾说过，<em>“诀窍是，当没有事情可做时，就什么都不做。”</em> 至少在接下来的几个月里，预计鲍威尔的美联储会遵循这一建议，同时监测经济数据并等待伊朗局势的时间表明朗。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-GBP-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-GBP-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></p>
<h2>美元技术分析 – GBP/USD 日线图</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260317114312-2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2065" height="1070" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260317114312-2.png"/></p>
<p><em>来源：StoneX, TradingView</em></p>
<p>将注意力转向图表，GBP/USD 在进入美联储会议和周四的英格兰银行决策时显示出有趣的布局。该货币对自 1 月底达到峰值以来一直在下行趋势，本周的反弹使其回到接近 1.3400 的看跌趋势线附近。100 日均线也接近这一水平。</p>
<p>除非鲍威尔明确表示对经济的担忧，否则交易员可能会在该阻力位下方卖出 GBP/USD，空间下行测试 1.3200 的 78.6% 斐波那契回撤位。然而，意外的鸽派前景可能会使该货币对突破阻力，测试 50 日 EMA 和上周高点在 1.3400 上方。</p>
<p><em>-- 作者：Matt Weller，全球研究主管</em></p>
<p><em>查看 Matt 的每日市场更新视频</em> <em>在 YouTube 上</em> <em>并确保关注 Matt 的 Twitter:</em> <em>@MWellerFX</em></p>

3 倍做多纳指 ETF - ProShares

标普 500 指数

纳斯达克综合指数 ETF - Fidelity

纳斯达克 100 指数 ETF - Invesco

纳斯达克 100 指数

纳指 100 ETF - Invesco

纳斯达克综合指数

<p>交易者预计美联储将在 2026 年 3 月 18 日的 FOMC 会议上将利率维持在 3.50%-3.75% 之间。由于伊朗持续的战争，2026 年的失业率和核心个人消费支出（Core PCE）通胀预测可能会向上修正。市场预计在 6 月之前不会有利率变动，关注美联储的货币政策声明和鲍威尔主席的新闻发布会，以获取有关劳动力市场和通胀动态的见解。这种情况可能导致滞涨轨迹，引发中央银行家的担忧</p>

<h2>Federal Reserve, FOMC Key Points</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美联储，FOMC 关键要点</h2>
</div><ul>
<li>Traders and economists expect the Fed to hold interest rates in the 3.50-3.75% range.</li>
<li>The central bank could revise up its 2026 forecasts for unemployment (from December’s 4.5%) and Core PCE inflation (from 3.0% to 3.2% or 3.3%) given the war in Iran.</li>
<li>Unless the Powell expresses clear concern about the economy, traders may look to sell GBP/USD in-line with its downtrend for an eventual test of 1.3200 support.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>交易员和经济学家预计美联储将把利率维持在 3.50-3.75% 的区间。</li>
<li>鉴于伊朗战争，中央银行可能会上调其对 2026 年失业率（从 12 月的 4.5%）和核心 PCE 通胀（从 3.0% 上调至 3.2% 或 3.3%）的预测。</li>
<li>除非鲍威尔明确表示对经济的担忧，否则交易员可能会在其下行趋势中选择卖出 GBP/USD，最终测试 1.3200 的支撑位。</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>When is the FOMC Meeting?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>FOMC 会议何时召开？</h2>
</div><p>The March 2026 FOMC meeting will conclude on <strong>Wednesday, March 18 at 2:00 ET.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2026 年 3 月的 FOMC 会议将于 <strong>3 月 18 日星期三下午 2:00（东部时间）</strong> 结束。</p>
</div><p>Fed Chairman Powell’s press conference will begin at <strong>2:30 ET.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会将于 <strong>下午 2:30（东部时间）</strong> 开始。</p>
</div><h2>What are the FOMC Interest Rate Expectations?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>FOMC 利率预期是什么？</h2>
</div><p><strong>Traders and economists expect the Fed to hold interest rates in the 3.75-4.00% range</strong> with high confidence</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>交易员和经济学家预计美联储将把利率维持在 3.75-4.00% 的区间，</strong> 并对此充满信心。</p>
</div><p>As of writing, Fed Funds futures traders are pricing in <strong>99% odds</strong> of no change to interest rates per CME FedWatch:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至撰写时，CME FedWatch 的美联储基金期货交易员预计 <strong>99% 的概率</strong> 不会改变利率：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260317114312-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260317114312-1.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: CME FedWatch</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：CME FedWatch</em></p>
</div><p>Even looking out over the next couple meetings, traders are pricing in 75%+ odds of no change to rates through June, so interest rates are highly likely to remain on hold until at least the second half of the year as it stands.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使展望接下来的几次会议，交易员也预计到 6 月不会改变利率的概率超过 75%，因此利率在今年下半年之前很可能会保持不变。</p>
</div><p>Assuming the Fed leaves rates unchanged as expected, the market’s focus will immediately shift to the central bank’s Monetary Policy Statement, Summary of Economic Projections and Fed Chairman Powell’s Press Conference for insights into the how the Fed is viewing the labor market and inflation dynamics, especially in the wake of the energy price spike from the war in Iran.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>假设美联储如预期保持利率不变，市场的关注将立即转向中央银行的货币政策声明、经济预测摘要以及鲍威尔主席的新闻发布会，以获取有关美联储如何看待劳动力市场和通胀动态的见解，特别是在伊朗战争导致能源价格飙升的背景下。</p>
</div><h2>FOMC Meeting Forecast</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>FOMC 会议预测</h2>
</div><p>As is his wont, President Trump took to Truth Social to demand an immediate interest rate cut from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell earlier this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如他一贯所做的，特朗普总统本周早些时候在 Truth Social 上要求美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔立即降息。</p>
</div><p>Unfortunately for the President, not only will the Fed not deliver an interest rate cut this week, but it’s likely to remain on hold throughout the first half of the year, even when Trump’s handpicked successor Kevin Warsh takes the reins in June, given the conflict in the Middle East and spike in oil prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对总统来说不幸的是，美联储不仅不会在本周降息，而且在今年上半年很可能会保持不变，即使特朗普挑选的接班人凯文·沃什在 6 月接任，考虑到中东冲突和油价飙升。</p>
</div><p>The war in Iran puts pressure on both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate, first by raising energy costs (and thus inflation) and secondly by weighing an already slowing labor market in the second half of the year. With the proverbial “fog of war” impacting the future outlook for the economy, it should be a straightforward decision for Jerome Powell and company to leave policy unchanged this month, while acknowledging the uncertainty in its statement, likely with only one dissent (Trump appointee Stephen Miran).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗战争对美联储的双重任务施加了压力，首先是提高能源成本（从而导致通胀），其次是对已经放缓的劳动力市场施加压力。由于 “战争迷雾” 影响了经济的未来前景，鲍威尔及其团队在本月保持政策不变的决定应该是简单明了的，同时在声明中承认不确定性，可能只有一位反对者（特朗普任命的斯蒂芬·米兰）。</p>
</div><p>Where the FOMC meeting gets more interesting for traders is in the quarterly Summary of Economic Projections. The Committee is likely to stick with its projection for one interest rate cut this year (though there’s an outside chance that the median member could flip to no rate cuts this year). At the same time, there’s risk that the central bank revises up its 2026 forecast for unemployment (from December’s 4.5%) a tick, with the Core PCE inflation forecast also at risk of an upward revision (from 3.0% to 3.2% or 3.3%) given it was already running at 3.1% before the outbreak of hostilities in Iran.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于交易员来说，FOMC 会议的趣味在于季度经济预测摘要。委员会可能会坚持其对今年降息一次的预测（尽管有可能中位数成员可能会转向今年不降息）。与此同时，中央银行上调其 2026 年失业率预测（从 12 月的 4.5%）的风险也存在，核心 PCE 通胀预测也面临上调风险（从 3.0% 上调至 3.2% 或 3.3%），因为在伊朗冲突爆发之前，其通胀率已经达到 3.1%。</p>
</div><p>While not a gamechanger by itself, these tweaks shift the US economy closer to a “stagflationary” trajectory, a scenario that is every central banker’s worst fear.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然这些调整本身并不是改变游戏规则的因素，但这些变化使美国经济更接近于 “滞涨” 轨迹，这是每位中央银行家最担心的情景。</p>
</div><p>As for Chairman Jerome Powell’s penultimate testimony, the former lawyer is likely to deflect any questions about the politicization of the Federal Reserve and whether he plans to stay on the board of the Federal Reserve once his term concludes on May 15.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>至于鲍威尔主席的倒数第二次证词，这位前律师可能会回避任何关于美联储政治化的问题，以及他是否计划在 5 月 15 日任期结束后继续留在美联储董事会。</p>
</div><p>Warren Buffett once said, <em>“The trick is, when there is nothing to do, do nothing.”</em> At least for the next couple months, expect Powell’s Fed to follow that advice while monitoring incoming economic data and awaiting clarity on the timeline in Iran.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃伦·巴菲特曾说过，<em>“诀窍是，当没有事情可做时，就什么都不做。”</em> 至少在接下来的几个月里，预计鲍威尔的美联储会遵循这一建议，同时监测经济数据并等待伊朗局势的时间表明朗。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-GBP-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-GBP-USD-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<h2>US Dollar Technical Analysis – GBP/USD Daily Chart</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美元技术分析 – GBP/USD 日线图</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260317114312-2.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260317114312-2.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: StoneX, TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：StoneX, TradingView</em></p>
</div><p>Turning our attention to the charts, GBP/USD is showing an interesting setup heading into the Federal Reserve meeting and Thursday’s Bank of England decision. The pair has been trending lower since peaking in late January, with this week’s bounce taking it back toward the bearish trend line near 1.3400. The 100-day MA also comes in near this level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>将注意力转向图表，GBP/USD 在进入美联储会议和周四的英格兰银行决策时显示出有趣的布局。该货币对自 1 月底达到峰值以来一直在下行趋势，本周的反弹使其回到接近 1.3400 的看跌趋势线附近。100 日均线也接近这一水平。</p>
</div><p>Unless the Powell expresses clear concern about the economy, traders may look to sell GBP/USD below that barrier, with room down to test the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the November-January rally at 1.3200 late this month. However, a surprisingly dovish outlook could take the pair through resistance to test the 50-day EMA and last week’s high in the upper-1.3400s.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除非鲍威尔明确表示对经济的担忧，否则交易员可能会在该阻力位下方卖出 GBP/USD，空间下行测试 1.3200 的 78.6% 斐波那契回撤位。然而，意外的鸽派前景可能会使该货币对突破阻力，测试 50 日 EMA 和上周高点在 1.3400 上方。</p>
</div><p><em>-- Written by Matt Weller, Global Head of Research</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>-- 作者：Matt Weller，全球研究主管</em></p>
</div><p><em>Check out Matt’s Daily Market Update videos</em> <em>on YouTube</em> <em>and be sure to follow Matt on Twitter:</em> <em>@MWellerFX</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>查看 Matt 的每日市场更新视频</em> <em>在 YouTube 上</em> <em>并确保关注 Matt 的 Twitter:</em> <em>@MWellerFX</em></p>
</div>

FOMC Meeting Preview: So Much for 2% Inflation this Year?

- 美联储预计将利率维持在 3.50-4.00% 区间。  
- 伊朗战争可能导致失业率和 PCE 通胀预测上调。  
- 交易者关注 FOMC 会议对经济前景的影响及 GBP/USD 走势。

FOMC 会议前瞻：今年实现 2% 的通胀目标还有可能吗？